RaceCafe..#1...Tipsters Thread.... Share Your Fancies For Fun...Lets See Who The Best Tipsters Here Are.
HH88

Deep Impact - et al

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Attribution:

Whilst the analysis these posts are based on (and any errors therein) are mine and mine alone, the breeding principals they are based on are wholly owned by, and attributable to the late H.D.C. Hampton whose breadth and depth of knowledge of international breeding in a pre-digital world was, at the same time extraordinarily comprehensive, incredibly detailed and very well researched.

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Unfortunately there does not seem to be any statistical evidence that those with these breeding theories have any advantage over those who don't use such methodology. If there was a statistical approach with evidence, then my position might change. At the moment there is none.

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Berri

Slightly off topic but what do you think of Woburn Farm's different approach to their photographs on the NZB sales site --a whole range of images from different angles etc. instead of one static image and a video (that might come later)? 

I "take my hat off " to them for trying something different  and it far superior to just having one image.

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I think that one has to ask themselves what the tipping point might be in order to present a yearling using on-line tools. If you think about it, we who look at the yearlings have a format.

They come out of the box and you like to get them stood up in front of you, with the mane pushed away from you and the light behind you. You're trying to inhale the essence of the horse, its balance and you're looking for the caricature of its sideways conformation. I then tend to move to the front to have a front on view of the front legs, then move to the "other side" before moving to the rear. I'm specifically looking at the hocks, and width of pelvis to attempt to understand the maturity of the musculature of the backside. You then move around to the side on view to contemplate what you've seen. I also like to test the width of jowl with my fist. I might look at the size of balls with the colts and vulval angle with fillies. 

Then I ask for the walk. Often from the rear first as they walk away from you, then from the front , then the rear, then the front again. Then I look from the side. This is where I look for resonance and balance of movement, looking for timing and how its pasterns/ fetlocks drop, and take note of the hock action. At all times I am conscious of what the ears are doing. This is the gateway to its personality.

If that is what is in essence the image capture requirement, then technology must be used to capture that. 

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Interesting to see that Deep Impact has just had his best year at stud. 

35 Stakes-winners for the year which is outstanding considering that I saw somewhere that Japan have the lowest percentage of races that are stakes races. I think they have 1.4% of races that are stakes races compared to Australia which has 3%. 

Also just seen that Deep Impact NZ$ 120m in progeny earnings for the year which is a new world record.  

 

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On 12/22/2020 at 7:08 PM, HH88 said:

The forgoing illustrates how identifying the “constant factors” in the pedigrees of a sires best progeny can be utilized to identify mares that may suit him, and in turn provide useful clues as to what lines may work with his sons when in turn they go to stud. Attached are two additional mating suggestions for Staphanos that may warrant consideration, and serve to illustrate the principle.

  • The Captain Rio mating has balanced linebreeding to Craig an Eran and his full brother Sky-rocket, Prince John and Busted.

(Stud book returns suggest Staphanos covered at least one Captain Rio mare this season) 

 

  • The Golan mating has balanced linebreeding to Craig an Eran and Sky-rocket, Prince John, Source Sucree, Hail to Reason and Eight Thirty. 

 

Captain Rio.jpeg

Golan.jpeg

Hi HH88, I know you may be reluctant, given you don’t focus on broodmares, rather sire patterns...however given you have looked at Golan, how does Golan mare ‘Holly Dee’ look with Time Test. Ok if you throw me to the weeds on this request as I know how much time it takes. However She’s out of a very interesting imported family and is currently an improving eventer for my daughter - her race record is worthy, and I hold a share so a serious request. Cheers.

also given there is no performance data, how do you use your approach to help pick new sires?

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1 hour ago, Dopey said:

Hi HH88, I know you may be reluctant, given you don’t focus on broodmares, rather sire patterns...however given you have looked at Golan, how does Golan mare ‘Holly Dee’ look with Time Test. Ok if you throw me to the weeds on this request as I know how much time it takes. However She’s out of a very interesting imported family and is currently an improving eventer for my daughter - her race record is worthy, and I hold a share so a serious request. Cheers.

also given there is no performance data, how do you use your approach to help pick new sires?

 

5F912E44-8208-4B07-BD1F-588E945E5102.jpeg

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Haven't done any analysis on Time Test thus unable to comment on your planned mating with Holly Dee. 

However to answer your question regarding new sires with no progeny performance data, and using Time Test as an example, start with his sire Dubawi, identify the lines working in his best progeny (Including Time Test himself) then select broodmares that carry those lines forward through opposite strains. 

All of the above pedigree sheets should provide a useful template.Yes its laborious and entails a lot of analysis but the good news in this case is all the heavy lifting has been done for you – have you considered sending Holly Dee to Staphanos?

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36 minutes ago, HH88 said:

Haven't done any analysis on Time Test thus unable to comment on your planned mating with Holly Dee. 

However to answer your question regarding new sires with no progeny performance data, and using Time Test as an example, start with his sire Dubawi, identify the lines working in his best progeny (Including Time Test himself) then select broodmares that carry those lines forward through opposite strains. 

All of the above pedigree sheets should provide a useful template.Yes its laborious and entails a lot of analysis but the good news in this case is all the heavy lifting has been done for you – have you considered sending Holly Dee to Staphanos?

No, but Luigi would love that!

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The subtleties of linebreeding:

The pedigree of Halo illustrates how the balanced linebreeding of Windermere and her full sister Frivolity is carried forward through male and female strains of Muncaster.

When Cosmah is mated with Tim Tam the champion filly and 1984 Hall of Fame inductee Tosmah resulted.

Tim Tam appears to be free of Muncaster yet the balanced linebreeding to Frivolity and Windermere continues with Tim Tam providing two female strains of Frivolity and Cosmah two male strains of full sister Windermere, thus male and female strains of a female ancestor which is likely to best suit a filly.

Halo.jpeg

Tosmah.jpeg

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One of the latest stakes winning fillies by Deep Impact attached. Despite a preponderance of balanced male linebreeding to Artist's Proof, Craig an Eran, and St. Germans, Herodias provides the son and daughter of a female ancestor likely to best suit a filly. 

Terzetto.jpeg

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Article ex Racing Post 

Masakazu Takahashi

World Premiere produced a strong finish under Yuichi Fukunaga to win the Group 1 Tenno Sho (Spring) at Hanshin on Sunday, holding off favourite Deep Bond by three-quarters of a length. In a thrilling 83rd renewal of the most important Japanese contest for stayers, there were four who held strong chances racing well into the final furlong of the two-mile event, but it was 42-10 shot World Premiere who made steady progress from midfield and then moved clear of the rest. Curren Bouquetd'or had come through to challenge longtime leader Diastima but weakened to finish third behind the strong surges of the first two in what is Japan's longest top-flight race. Christophe Lemaire had won the last two runnings of the Tenno Sho, worth over £1 million to the winner, on Fierement but had to settle for fourth this time on Aristoteles.

World Premiere is similar to Fancy Blue reviewed earlier in the thread with linebreeding to St. Leger winner Troutbeck and his full sister Mountain Lass. Additionally World Premiere has balanced returns of Herodias. As noted in the earlier post the second dam of this pair Rydal is the full sister to Kendal who is by Bend Or out of Windermere.

World Premiere.jpeg

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Herewith a consolidation of the balanced linebreeding present in some of Deep Impacts better performed fillies analyzed earlier in this thread.

Unsurprisingly the greatest numerical presence is to Banish Fear and her second dam Herodias (providing the filly factor, ie a son and daughter of a female ancestor)

The surprise is the number of presences of balanced linebreeding to St Germans. 

A copy and paste from the very first post in this thread follows, and may provide a clue:

The effectiveness of Agneta and Desmond are possibly enhanced by St. German's line of Torpoint who carries Tibthorpe, the full brother to Desmond's fourth dam Fair Agnes. Also Tibthorpe's dam Little Agnes is the third dam of Agneta and a full sister to Polly Agnes the second dam of Martagon, Ormonde and Ornament.

Screen Shot 2021-06-07 at 2.46.14 PM.png

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Epsom Oaks winner Snowfall has balanced linebreeding to Cosmah, Petition, and further back Troutbeck and full sister Mountain Lass. Presumably the duplication of Cosmah is bringing the lines of Banish Fear / Herodias closer and through an opposite strain. Female strains of Cosmah may be hard to find, Gleam Machine comes to mind.

Snowfall.jpeg

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Spring Champion Stakes winner Profondo has balanced linebreeding to Hail to Reason, Petition, Bull Lea, and North Star. Other top quality G1 Deep Impact colts with balanced linebreeding to Hail to Reason in particular, include Fierce Impact, Wagnerian, Contrail, and Roger Barows. (All pedigrees above)

Profondo.jpeg

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Herewith the pedigree of Akaitorino Musume Group 1 winner # 53 for Deep Impact.

She has balanced linebreeding to Craig an Eran, St Germans, Herodias, Bull Lea, and Artists Proof.

Loves Only You has just won the Breeders Cup Fillies & Mare Turf (pedigree above)

Coincidentally (or not) she also has balanced linebreeding to Craig an Eran, St Germans, Herodias, Bull Lea, and Artists Proof.

Akaitorino Musume.jpeg

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LATEST STAR FILLY

Aidan O'Brien speaks of 'massive loss' after the death of top filly Snowfall

Frankie Dettori pays rich tribute to record-breaking 16-length Oaks winner

Snowfall: three-time Oaks star, top Ballydoyle filly and a leading daughter of Deep Impact
Snowfall: three-time Oaks star, top Ballydoyle filly and a leading daughter of Deep Impact
Edward Whitaker (racingpost.com/photos)
1 of 1
By Richard Forristal and Mark Boylan UPDATED 8:01PM, JAN 11 2022
  

Frankie Dettori has described Snowfall as the easiest British Classic winner he has ever ridden after Aidan O'Brien revealed his his brilliant triple Oaks heroine had to be put down this week, dealing Ballydoyle the cruellest of blows on the cusp of the 2022 Flat season

The high-class four-year-old, who ran out a devastating 16-length winner of the Oaks at Epsom under Dettori before going on to triumph in the Curragh and York equivalents, recently suffered a serious pelvis injury in her stable at Ballydoyle, O'Brien said.

Despite the veterinary team's best efforts to save her, the battle was ultimately lost.

Snowfall finished sixth in the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe before running what proved to be her final race when third in the British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes at Ascot in October.

With St Mark's Basilica already retired, she would have been expected to lead the line for the trainer's older horses in 2022. More than that, as a daughter of Deep Impact out of a sister to the stable's 2016 Arc winner Found, her value to Coolmore as a future broodmare was incalculable, with O'Brien indicating the plan had been to send her to be covered by St Mark's Basilica in the spring.

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Killer Ability the latest G1 winner for Deep Impact in a 2000 metre race for two year olds..No real pedigree surprises with balanced linebreeding to Hail to Reason, Blue Swords / Bluehaze, North Star and interestingly the infrequently encountered Starflight, the full sister to North Star.

Starflight also appears in the pedigree of Jennifer Eccles (to unknown effect) unlike here where we have seen linebreeding to North Star in his good colts Contrail, Al Ain, and Fierce Impact

Killer Ability.jpeg

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