RaceCafe..#1...Tipsters Thread.... Share Your Fancies For Fun...Lets See Who The Best Tipsters Here Are.
pogo(aus)

The Cups 2019 (aus)

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Fair dinkum sheep sharers , Trent Bustin says ALL the runners in both cups will be imports and his stable have purchased a blow in so they will have a runner. ( racing.com article)

Little wonder it’s another reason why the great race really IS the Golden Slipper:rcf-in-love:

Send a soap dodger 2 yo over for that and see where it finishes.

According to Trent it now appears you can’t buy a yearling in Aus or NZ that will get you to the big dance.:rcf-angry-1:

Who would have envisaged this back in the day.

Too much international  Hi Jinx and not enough care for our own.

Imagine if the unthinkable happens and we never see another Kiwi, Van de Hum or Let’s Elope ( nz nz nz )

Its a joke !!

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Here's an idea ...they change the Australian Cup to Australasian Cup - only AUS and NZ-bred runners allowed. If they wont do that, create a new race of high status (and high stake money) accordingly a la Everest. etter still ,the uninspirig Auckland Racing Club can do it ...eg change the Karaka Stayers Cup to 3200m and change the terms/conditions accordingly.

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10 hours ago, weasel57 said:

Here's an idea ...they change the Australian Cup to Australasian Cup - only AUS and NZ-bred runners allowed. If they wont do that, create a new race of high status (and high stake money) accordingly a la Everest. etter still ,the uninspirig Auckland Racing Club can do it ...eg change the Karaka Stayers Cup to 3200m and change the terms/conditions accordingly.

Problem is OZ generally  have best turf sprinters in World so Everest big money race for the best , a restricted bred race for stayers would generally have horses a long way from best , not quite a bumper but the  bottom weight in full field of 2 milers bred NZ and OZ  I doubt would win a decent bumper .

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2 hours ago, poundforpound said:

You had a few tonight ?

We’re not great at the moment but we’re not that bad FFS...it takes a horse just below UK classic standard to win the MC, and even then they need the handicapper on their side ...but the handicapper is waking up to them, rapidly, so that’ll be neutralized soon enough 

One of the problems in NZ is that many of our best horsemen have gone abroad for better opportunities, and those left behind are surviving on selling promising young horses, and they’re invariably horses of a precocious nature ..so the studs bring a more precocious type of stallion in because that’s where the demand is....it’s a vicious circle driven by the decline of the domestic industry....

I agree that it’s not going to change any time soon but please, we can do without the northern hemisphere snobbery because a bad horse is still a bad horse, and the UK has far more bad horses than we ever will...to compare our stayers to bumper quality horses is either a huge piss take, or you’re drucking funk 

 

As sober as a priest tonight .

 . I said the bottom weight of 24 NZ or Oz bred stayers I doubt would win a decent bumper . Be that a bumper  race at likes of Aintree , Leopardstown, Cheltenham or Punchestown Festivals .

High Bridge couldn't win a decent bumper , was trucked along to Huntingdon a decent track to visit but not A grade , he has  won couple in Sydney now , plus placings in Saturday features and 4th 1.5 lengths off Patrick Erin receiving half kilo in last year's Metrop.

Colliers Hill , won a bumper at Catterick Bridge , now most men only go to Catterick Town  to get arse kicking from an army pti in recruit training , it's a gaff track. He went on to  win a Hong Kong Vase at international meeting about 10 years back plus other success on flat .

Ulundi headed off to little old Newton Abbot after beaten in Market Rasen bumper . Won at Newton Abbot , in 2002 he was 4th beaten about a neck in Arlington Million , the German globetrotter Paolini was behind him .Paolini  was only 4 lengths off Savabeel in a Cox Plate .

Wicklow Brave , couldn't win his first few bumpers , won  next three run of mill bumpers , he is a dead set iron horse who has done it all . He was 10th in Rekindlings Cup. No OZ or NZ bred was in front of him , the only OZ NZ bred who gave him weight that day was Humidor.  

Envoi Allen was last year's champion bumper horse  ,a monster of a horse worth probably seven figures now ,   put him in  this new OZ NZ race , can anyone seriously say he wouldn't have half a show .

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If the MC was WFA, how would Northern Hemisphere horses perform? At the moment, it seems that lighter weighted horses usually win the MC. Unless it’s a Makybe Diva type (freak) usually u have to look at the lighter weighted horses. WFA would change the race completely. I like the fact that Greg Carpenter has finally woken up to the fact that European/UK horses are thrown in at the weights.

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I see Gerry Harvey says the cup is now second to the Everest :o

Well the cup maybe ok for the fake tan and silicon tit brigade dressed up like gaby gecko but as a race that is of interest to the every day punter ........it’s a joke !!

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2 minutes ago, pogo(aus) said:

I see Gerry Harvey says the cup is now second to the Everest :o

Well the cup maybe ok for the fake tan and silicon tit brigade dressed up like gaby gecko but as a race that is of interest to the every day punter ........it’s a joke !!

I beg to differ. The MC generated more betting than any other race in Australasia. Correct me if I’m wrong? About 100,000 “attend” the MC. Business stops and the Nation stops for the MC. Jeez, even Parliament stops for the MC!  The Everest attracts what? 40,000 on course? It doesn’t stop a Nation. Betting on the Everest is minuscule compared to the MC. 

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How many years has the Everest been going compared to the cup ??

it got 40,000 on course ( capacity ) within two years !!

People have the shits with the cup being hijacked by blow ins, it’s great for the economy but the change to the race will end or severely hamper stayers being bred in this country.

even a stayers midweeker  in Sydney now is a European slugfest.

its a joke !!

 

 

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 a restricted bred race for stayers would generally have horses a long way from best

I disagree completely. If run a la Everest, the stake money alone would ensure that high quality NZ and Aus bred stayers would be entered and trained to the minute ..it would also suit many horses that prefer harder tracks in summer rather than often rain-affected ground in late summer/autumn (eg Akld Cup carnival, Sydney).
And if the Karaka 3200m race winner also had a guaranteed entry into the Melbourne Cup, well ...

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14 hours ago, Trump said:

If the MC was WFA, how would Northern Hemisphere horses perform? At the moment, it seems that lighter weighted horses usually win the MC. Unless it’s a Makybe Diva type (freak) usually u have to look at the lighter weighted horses. WFA would change the race completely. I like the fact that Greg Carpenter has finally woken up to the fact that European/UK horses are thrown in at the weights.

Why would making it WFA be detrimental to Northern Hemisphere horses . Last three cups 3 × 12 in money , out of the 36 places , Who Shot the Barman , Pentathlon, Youngster and Sir Charles Road were the only four NZ  or OZ who picked up any money . Closest 5th WSTB . In 2017 1 to 12 NH bred . Last two MC trifectas Irish and British trained.  This year top 43 in weights , only 5 NZ or Oz bred . Stradivarius or similar level horse could head out at WFA.Knock out their 3 year olds with weight , more of their older horses might head out because they also won't have to go against a handicap snip . The more the hole is plugged it will leak somewhere else till a volume of quality  stayers are  bred and prepared here.

Te Akau now buying Pontefract winners for Cup , that's indicates there where they believe the best chance of success in big one lies.

Southern France been brought by Aussies, it's a mountain of cash heading north.

 

 

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8 minutes ago, Red Rum said:

Why would making it WFA be detrimental to Northern Hemisphere horses . Last three cups 3 × 12 in money , out of the 36 places , Who Shot the Barman , Pentathlon, Youngster and Sir Charles Road were the only four NZ  or OZ who picked up any money . Closest 5th WSTB . In 2017 1 to 12 NH bred . Last two MC trifectas Irish and British trained.  This year top 43 in weights , only 5 NZ or Oz bred . Stradivarius or similar level horse could head out at WFA.Knock out their 3 year olds with weight , more of their older horses might head out because they also won't have to go against a handicap snip . The more the hole is plugged it will leak somewhere else till a volume of quality  stayers are  bred and prepared here.

Te Akau now buying Pontefract winners for Cup , that's indicates there where they believe the best chance of success in big one lies.

Southern France been brought by Aussies, it's a mountain of cash heading north.

 

 

I didn’t say it would be detrimental to NH horses. I was asking the question. Obviously you believe it would have no effect. I think that currently, it favours horses that “beat the handicapper” and gain a run. P4P has mentioned Constantinople and I tend to agree he’s one. Good form in Group races, good form over 2400m, a NH 3yo who will be rising 4 by Cup Day, lightly raced and by Galileo with Danehill on the Damside. If it improves then with 52.5 it will in with a great chance. Probably has to get a kilo or so to get run I’d think. Be interesting to see where it runs first up in Oz. 

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14 minutes ago, Trump said:

I didn’t say it would be detrimental to NH horses. I was asking the question. Obviously you believe it would have no effect. I think that currently, it favours horses that “beat the handicapper” and gain a run. P4P has mentioned Constantinople and I tend to agree he’s one. Good form in Group races, good form over 2400m, a NH 3yo who will be rising 4 by Cup Day, lightly raced and by Galileo with Danehill on the Damside. If it improves then with 52.5 it will in with a great chance. Probably has to get a kilo or so to get run I’d think. Be interesting to see where it runs first up in Oz. 

Looks a dodgy horse in a battle and questions asked up North but clearly highly talented. Surprise Baby could be the one to beat out the imports and internationals , looked good Saturday . Maybe get a win in Bart Cummings trainer gets a month to do what he wants before big one .

As for WFA , imho it's goes that way at moment it's over.  The bonus Stradivarius won last two years has gone as he made it look easy , which its not  so best  would target  Cup without  regard to weights for the big money .

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Interested to see how Rostrapovich shapes up after his good runs in Caulfield and Melbourne Cups, although has gone up 4kg for running fifth, which seems a bit harsh given Marmelo and Prince of Arran who were in front of him basically stay on the same weights. 

Constantinople the obvious standout at the weights but a lot to happen between now and November.

Red Rums Raymond Tusk drops hugely in weight (7kg) after his Ebor run so must be in the mix somewhere.

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On 9/11/2019 at 7:12 PM, poundforpound said:

You had a few tonight ?

We’re not great at the moment but we’re not that bad FFS...it takes a horse just below UK classic standard to win the MC, and even then they need the handicapper on their side ...but the handicapper is waking up to them, rapidly, so that’ll be neutralized soon enough 

One of the problems in NZ is that many of our best horsemen have gone abroad for better opportunities, and those left behind are surviving on selling promising young horses, and they’re invariably horses of a precocious nature ..so the studs bring a more precocious type of stallion in because that’s where the demand is....it’s a vicious circle driven by the decline of the domestic industry....

I agree that it’s not going to change any time soon but please, we can do without the northern hemisphere snobbery because a bad horse is still a bad horse, and the UK has far more bad horses than we ever will...to compare our stayers to bumper quality horses is either a huge piss take, or you’re drucking funk 

 

Some of that bumper form from Warwick and Down Royal might get tested in Melbourne . True Self by Oscar a good jumps stallion  into quarantine. Low down order of entry so Willie Mullins might give him a few outings . Pretty handy horse.Couldn't win at Warwick but the Mullins magic has worked on him after the transfer across Irish Sea and got him winning in a bumper North and South of Irish border .

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The guts of it is Aussies dont want to wait for a stayer to develop and Kiwis cant afford to. I'd support turning this thing into WFA and that might stop NH over-rating their horses.

I've lost interest in the Melbourne Cups as I cant be bothered with following NH racing.

 

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RR, what do you think of Neufbosc from a Euro point of view? Well beaten in the Arc, but you can forgive that. His two runs in Oz - the first was Ok for a stayer, but not sure what to make of the MV race last time out, as the pace should have suited.

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22 minutes ago, Catalano said:

RR, what do you think of Neufbosc from a Euro point of view? Well beaten in the Arc, but you can forgive that. His two runs in Oz - the first was Ok for a stayer, but not sure what to make of the MV race last time out, as the pace should have suited.

Those three races before Arc were small fields but class , Beaten by Brundtland in an Arc trial but Bruntdtland  was talked of being  the star stayer for Godolphin this year but had fatal injury at Meydan start season unfortunately. Split Kew Gardens and Dee Ex Bee in another of the three races, Dee Ex Bee is now second best stayer in UK  and KG toppy in Cup and Neufbosc  finished in front of Ispolini in the other of the three races so form all there . I reckon judge him when  he hits 2000 plus .

Donny Cup tonight will be cracker Stradivarius v Dee Ex Bee again , dare I say it but Sneaky Getaway I will follow with added interest in it .6 year old , debut this year in arse end of winter bumper at Thurles were good old Vintage Crop kicked off his jumps career in a bumper on debut .Vintage Crop won but Sneaky Getaway somehow unseated on the flat there , won next couple at Clonmel and Cork so he's handy and Mullins connection too.. Now mixing it with best stayers. Gets 5lbs from Stradivarius. I can see him finishing in front of Max Dynamite .

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On 9/12/2019 at 2:05 PM, Ohokaman said:

Interested to see how Rostrapovich shapes up after his good runs in Caulfield and Melbourne Cups, although has gone up 4kg for running fifth, which seems a bit harsh given Marmelo and Prince of Arran who were in front of him basically stay on the same weights. 

Constantinople the obvious standout at the weights but a lot to happen between now and November.

Red Rums Raymond Tusk drops hugely in weight (7kg) after his Ebor run so must be in the mix somewhere.

Cosy win by Ispolini in German St Leger this morning OM  , Doyle flew in from Woodbine after winning on Old Persian in  Grp 1  Northern Dancer Stakes . Settled inside eased out straight and hands heels home no trouble . Appleby had top weekend as well as wins in Canada and Germany Pinatubo absolutely pissed home in National Stakes at Curragh  . Loved Kew Gardens run in Irish Leger , been off but hit line real hard .

If you get a chance have look Prix Neil ,almost a big balls up , 5 runners and Scottsass ran right up his pacemakers arse on rails , eventually got a gap then boom . He will give Dettori and Gosden a few nightmares prior to Arc Day .

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5 hours ago, Red Rum said:

Cosy win by Ispolini in German St Leger this morning OM  , Doyle flew in from Woodbine after winning on Old Persian in  Grp 1  Northern Dancer Stakes . Settled inside eased out straight and hands heels home no trouble . Appleby had top weekend as well as wins in Canada and Germany Pinatubo absolutely pissed home in National Stakes at Curragh  . Loved Kew Gardens run in Irish Leger , been off but hit line real hard .

If you get a chance have look Prix Neil ,almost a big balls up , 5 runners and Scottsass ran right up his pacemakers arse on rails , eventually got a gap then boom . He will give Dettori and Gosden a few nightmares prior to Arc Day .

Gee Pinatubo was impressive....ran a tick over 1.21 for 1400m. Would they bring him down here...?

https://www.racing.com/news/2019-09-16/post-pinatubo-explodes-remains-unbeaten

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21 minutes ago, Ohokaman said:

Gee Pinatubo was impressive....ran a tick over 1.21 for 1400m. Would they bring him down here...?

https://www.racing.com/news/2019-09-16/post-pinatubo-explodes-remains-unbeaten

Red hot for guineas next year , they won  National Stakes with Quorta last year , he was 3 from 3 had Anthony Van Dyck behind but he's been laid off a year now  , Hope this one stays ok because he's seriously good . Was a decent field too.

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On 9/17/2019 at 11:34 AM, Ohokaman said:

Caulfield Cup order of entry....

2019-stella-artois-caulfield-cup-order-o

How do you see the Kris lees horse Our Candidate Qhoka? Runs in the Newcastle Cup Friday and needs to win to get into Metrop then Caulfield ...big ask but word has it is untapped 

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