poundforpound

Helena Baby

154 posts in this topic

Seriously ?

A horse that won its maiden four months ago, that’s only a small listed winner, never won at 1200, and it’s being given a serious chance by the ( self described ) experts from Trackside and the TAB ......

Am I missing something ? I don’t follow winter form but surely TA Shark has ten up his sleeve over Helena Baby ....maybe I should run a comp 

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Loved the way Helena sprinted at Rotorua, made the straight seem even shorter from the old public stand perspective .Does look ‘X’ factor ...Leo if CT is the stopper that Carnival text makes you the Starter:rcf-sad-1:

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Just to refresh p4p's memory on an event he'd clearly love to forget ..

Pre-race comments included:

If I’m wrong I won’t care ( there’s about a 0.007 % chance I’ll be wrong ). Actually I’m exaggerating, there’s no chance I’ll be wrong.

Post-race comments saw that minuscule %-age reduced even further to:

Aaaaaahhhhhhh........I knew there was a 0.00000007% chance I'd be wrong :) 

 

Mercifully, this appalling state of affairs was followed in reasonable time by a written apology for being r-r-r-ong ...

hallelujah for that.

As for Helena Baby's chances tomorrow? I'd say very very good ...he handles bad ground, has the intimidation factor, ability and will to win, confidence is up, and most of all .. HB is rock-hard fit, which is unlikely to be the case for either of the Te Akau runners, both of whom have much bigger assignments in the next 2-3 months.

  •  

 

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2 hours ago, chelseacol said:

Nice horse HB, but huge step up and the WFA scale really works against him here. So agreed. Cannot see anything beating the two Richards runners who look lengths in front.

Meant to be wetter tomorrow Col and despite what they've done I'm very wary of both the Richards runners especially TAS, fresh up,  they're aiming for the Cox Plate and Jamie says  he's not screwed down yet. Either way a lot of improvers will come out of it as the tracks get better.

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14 minutes ago, poundforpound said:

Well I was hoping for a rational response.....but in the absence of the same I’ll just presume that for the first time ever in history a decent winter galloper like HB is good enough to compete with a ( potential ) superstar like TAS......

HB is indeed a decent winter galloper already ..but is he limited to being only a decent winter galloper - I doubt he'd be going to HK if so - I don't think TAS will be bothered by 'Te Rapa heavy' -already won there in heavy ground over 1100m as a 3yo ...his only defeat came on a Good3 in the 2000 Guineas .For me the big query is whether or not (after the injury) TAS can still produce that freakish acceleration we saw last year. If he can, and does, it's game over for all of them in the Foxbridge (and probably a lot in Ozzie, too). Should be a great race tomorrow.

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Look I’ve ridden them all....and the difference between a listed winner on a heavy track at NP and a good G1summer horse is at least 10kg, and arguably quite a lot more.

The question that needs clarity is this, can a rock hard fit HB run to his absolute best and simultaneously will TAS run at least ten kilos / lengths below his best...given that TAS has had two trials, and HB has never won at 1200 I’m saying NO.....HB is a very bad bet.

I’m happy to lay him if anyone’s interested ....but no lightweights, just a $1000 bet, one only, and I’ll give you a $5 dividend .....so if HB wins I pay out $5000.

Scooby will hold the purse for security....let’s do this you weak bastards......

 

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I think HB and TAS are both bad bets.

The are racing on an AWT  and I'm guessing the time will be around 1.12

IMO  I don't think the likely winner  has even been mentioned yet.

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5 hours ago, poundforpound said:

I’m happy to lay him if anyone’s interested ....but no lightweights, just a $1000 bet, one only, and I’ll give you a $5 dividend .....so if HB wins I pay out $5000.

Scooby will hold the purse for security....let’s do this you weak bastards......

 

$5 dividend means you pay out $4,000 if HB wins.  But all good - common mistake, confusing dividends and odds.

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9 hours ago, Kloppite said:

$5 dividend means you pay out $4,000 if HB wins.  But all good - common mistake, confusing dividends and odds.

All those years in standard three didn’t help huh ?

I simplified the return to help the idiots and avoid confusion but clearly I didn’t aim low enough and I’ve still confused you

Now back to this very important race.....having done the form I’ve got Endless Drama and TA Shark six lengths clear of the field.....can’t see HB troubling the judge.....nor Melody Belle...in fact I’d be very worried if I owned her, her last trial was awful..mind you she didn’t have her 127 bits of extra gear she normally wears on and I see it’s all back on today ....

Any intelligent thoughts please ? .....yes I know that excludes 93% of you but FFS don’t waste my time , just reply if you’re intelligent and credible thanks 

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1 hour ago, poundforpound said:

All those years in standard three didn’t help huh ?

I simplified the return to help the idiots and avoid confusion but clearly I didn’t aim low enough and I’ve still confused you

Now back to this very important race.....having done the form I’ve got Endless Drama and TA Shark six lengths clear of the field.....can’t see HB troubling the judge.....nor Melody Belle...in fact I’d be very worried if I owned her, her last trial was awful..mind you she didn’t have her 127 bits of extra gear she normally wears on and I see it’s all back on today ....

Any intelligent thoughts please ? .....yes I know that excludes 93% of you but FFS don’t waste my time , just reply if you’re intelligent and credible thanks 

I like ED as decent each way bet , won over 6 back in day at Naas, gone few decent races over trip and slightly further . TAS looks too short to back coming back from injury , few horses in it  look no hope , be surprised if ED don't find a place . 

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2 minutes ago, Red Rum said:

I like ED as decent each way bet , won over 6 back in day at Naas, gone few decent races over trip and slightly further . TAS looks too short to back coming back from injury , few horses in it  look no hope , be surprised if ED don't find a place . 

Lockinge and 2000 Guineas form good enough for me, and Straddie form.......and they’re tipping a provincial listed winner to beat it.....fook off.....can’t see that happening 

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at her peak Malambo might be competitive for 4th/5th - but a half-fit Melocy Belle should finish ahead of her and TAS should kick them all if he still has that turn of foot we saw in the Coupland.

My intelligent and credible guess for finishing order

1 TAS

2 MB

3 HB /ED/ SM/AP/MAL

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2 hours ago, poundforpound said:

All those years in standard three didn’t help huh ?

I simplified the return to help the idiots and avoid confusion but clearly I didn’t aim low enough and I’ve still confused you

haha  - I love how you fuck it up but instead of accepting that you got it wrong you get on the offensive and tell everyone else they're the idiots.  Classic narcissist behaviour.  Why not just admit you're not the most numerate?

Have you deposited your $4,000 with Scooby yet?  (or is that $5,000?) :)

 

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2 minutes ago, Kloppite said:

haha  - I love how you fuck it up but instead of accepting that you got it wrong you get on the offensive and tell everyone else they're the idiots.  Classic narcissist behaviour.  Why not just admit you're not the most numerate?

Have you deposited your $4,000 with Scooby yet?  (or is that $5,000?) :)

 

For clarity I said you put a grand on and I pay you five if you win .....and if it matters I’m straight A and A bursary in maths ( pure & stars )...you ?....fuckwit....if I’d said I’ll give you 4 to 1 you’re the exact sort of  retard who’d have asked if that was a $4 or $5 divvie....

Now put your money up and give me the pleasure of flogging you ( oh that’s right, you wouldn’t have a grand you pussy )

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3 minutes ago, poundforpound said:

For clarity I said you put a grand on and I pay you five if you win .....and if it matters I’m straight A and A bursary in maths ( pure & stars )...you ?....fuckwit....if I’d said I’ll give you 4 to 1 you’re the exact sort of  retard who’d have asked if that was a $4 or $5 divvie....

Now put your money up and give me the pleasure of flogging you ( oh that’s right, you wouldn’t have a grand you pussy )

No I wouldn't have asked because I know the difference between odds and dividends.  A Bursary - is that all?

Why would I put $1,000 up?  I don't think Helena Baby has a hope in hell in that field and $5 is way under.

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