CT"s

The only horse you need this Saturday.....

330 posts in this topic

On 7/21/2019 at 10:13 AM, Breeder said:

An interesting race to watch again, is R8 at Taranaki won by Hard to be Humble. The jockey was really pushing it along in the straight the first time around, at the back of the field. It looked like she might have pull it up at one stage, it was going so poorly but in the end it comes through on the inside in the home straight and wins quite well

https://loveracing.nz/RaceInfo/47442/8/Race-Detail.aspx

 

Looked 100-1 down the back

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On 7/22/2019 at 8:02 PM, CT"s said:

I knew he was always going to be a risk Ernie as horses rarely convert synthetic form to turf (only 1 in 13 now this year) but after seeing him parade (he’s a big brute) and I’d just won $760 off Lord Belvedere I thought he was worth a shot. 

What I should’ve done was stuck to my original plan and bet the winnings of Lord Belvedere on Sylvia’s Mother. 

Hindsight is a wonderful thing, just ask weasel. :P

 

Yes, hindsight is a wonderful thing, or as my mate likes to say, "From behind, it is easy to look a cow in the arse",

And I hope you have learned, CT, not to get too carried away with 'potential superstar' two-year-olds, and keep your hard-earned for good value risk/reward opportunities.

Methinks you are the type who gets easily carried away by one good performance, or the recommendation from a friend/insider that so-and-so is 'unbeatable'/champion bla bla bla...and you just have to tell us all about it so you can bask in the glory of your own tipping brilliance. And when things don't work out for you, you attack/denigrate other posters in whatever way suits you at the time...(eg 'hindsight is a wonderful thing, just ask weasel).

Here's a FREE TIP from me, mate. Next time you want to recommend a nag to us here, just tone down the language. Replace, eg,  'the  only horse you need this saturday" with something like:

"My best bet / value bet of the day for Saturday is"...and tell us why you rate it.. !  Try to stay humble, even though you find it hard ...

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On 7/22/2019 at 8:02 PM, CT"s said:

I knew he was always going to be a risk Ernie as horses rarely convert synthetic form to turf (only 1 in 13 now this year) but after seeing him parade (he’s a big brute) and I’d just won $760 off Lord Belvedere I thought he was worth a shot. 

What I should’ve done was stuck to my original plan and bet the winnings of Lord Belvedere on Sylvia’s Mother. 

Hindsight is a wonderful thing, just ask weasel. :P

 

Thought I'd suggest a value bet in Race 3 at Matamata today

#6 Lupelani S Collett aboard...this horse was good enough to win three in a row over 1200-1400m last June/July. I like to back horses that 'come up at a certain time of year. Today's run is 3rd up and Lupelani was not disgraced last two starts,  4th then 6th (only 1.8L from winner) at Avondale two weeks ago, finishing well over 1200m ..up to 1400m today. Handles left-handed OK (placed on this track), so worth a bob or two at $8 and $2.50.

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6 minutes ago, weasel57 said:

Thought I'd suggest a value bet in Race 3 at Matamata today

#6 Lupelani S Collett aboard...this horse was good enough to win three in a row over 1200-1400m last June/July. I like to back horses that 'come up at a certain time of year. Today's run is 3rd up and Lupelani was not disgraced last two starts,  4th then 6th (only 1.8L from winner) at Avondale two weeks ago, finishing well over 1200m ..up to 1400m today. Handles left-handed OK (placed on this track), so worth a bob or two at $8 and $2.50.

...add to these almost-compelling reasons the Nigel Tiley polish,  and the fact that Sam Collett had had 30 rides without a winner...she's overdue!!
Did I mention she's only got 6 horses to beat?? LOL.

PS: noe that I am not stating this is the "only horse you need on Wednesday" or that Lupelani is a potential superstar or past the post...just decent each way value esp at fixed odds in a 7-horse field!

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32 minutes ago, weasel57 said:

...add to these almost-compelling reasons the Nigel Tiley polish,  and the fact that Sam Collett had had 30 rides without a winner...she's overdue!!
Did I mention she's only got 6 horses to beat?? LOL.

PS: noe that I am not stating this is the "only horse you need on Wednesday" or that Lupelani is a potential superstar or past the post...just decent each way value esp at fixed odds in a 7-horse field!

Just the wrong Collett eh Weasel...?!

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Not a big fan of Seeing a new rider up, Imblaze  looked the right horse but Donny didn’t quite get it right.Thats racing.Didnt see the opening races but does seem to look a handy inside bias? The results say sub 1.26 1400m with a heavy 10 . Interesting 

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1 hour ago, flockofewes2 said:

Mandela,the 'potential superstar' is lining up again in the first at Randwick(1200)Sat....currently $2.70 NZTAB.

Who's in? ;)

Not sure he looked totally up for the fight last time , Art Collector  would be my bet in that race.J Mac up, decent Melbourne form , won trial. 

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On 8/1/2019 at 12:22 PM, flockofewes2 said:

Mandela,the 'potential superstar' is lining up again in the first at Randwick(1200)Sat....currently $2.70 NZTAB.

Who's in? ;)

Also entered at Kembla Grange where he is $2.70. Haven't checked the fields for Gilgandra yet. He may be heading there . 

 

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1 hour ago, Memphis2 said:

Also entered at Kembla Grange where he is $2.70. Haven't checked the fields for Gilgandra yet. He may be heading there . 

 

surprised they appear to have overlooked the 1100m maiden on Monday at Forbes...LOL

The truly sad thing here is that the lowly Monday maiden at Forbes ($38k) is worth more than the highest rated race at Te Rapa tomorrow (Open 1200m $35k) ...and the buffoons running the show here have scheduled it for the 3rd on the card ...sigh.

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On 8/1/2019 at 6:20 PM, TurnyTom said:

I think Chris is on course so I will wait for birdcage report - he knows his ponies our Chris

I was in Sydney last week Tom. Not there this weekend unfortunately. 

I’d be cautious on Mandela today drawn inside again on a heavy track like he was last start. Would’ve preferred to see him draw out wide. That being said won’t be surprised if he wins today. 

I’ll be backing another one later in the day.

Good luck if you have a punt.

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3 hours ago, TurnyTom said:

Think Chris may have this right, he surely has much upside

Still has a few quirks to iron out Tom (he missed the jump again and still is not running straight) but he’s clearly talented and once he puts it all together he’ll win a nice race. Paid a good price today for those who stuck strong. 

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I thought Mandela showed an impressive turn of foot to reel them in from well back, but didn't run away and hide ...early days for him though and connections will be glad they didn't take the Kembla Grange option. As a complete aside, Mandela earned more for his debut victory than Dez did for winning the Winter Cup.

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2 hours ago, weasel57 said:

I thought Mandela showed an impressive turn of foot to reel them in from well back, but didn't run away and hide ...early days for him though and connections will be glad they didn't take the Kembla Grange option. As a complete aside, Mandela earned more for his debut victory than Dez did for winning the Winter Cup.

Art Collector got murdered and got very close . 

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