Kentucky Derby Field/Analysis

[Catalano 951]

2019 Kentucky Derby Horses, Post Positions, Odds, Analysis And Start Time

By Neil Greenberg

(Washington Post) -- Bob Baffert, the Hall of Fame trainer of Triple Crown winners American Pharoah in 2015 and Justify in 2018, has three horses in the Kentucky Derby. The most promising is Game Winner, winner of the Breeder's Cup Juvenile in 2018 and runner up in the Santa Anita Derby this past April. His other two horses, Roadster (the winner of the Santa Anita Derby) and Improbable (a son of City Zip, who is looking for his first win as a 3-year-old) are among the top betting choices.

The morning-line favorite, however, is Omaha Beach, winner of the Arkansas Derby and the Rebel Stakes. Richard Mandella's quest for an elusive Kentucky Derby victory — he's 0 for 6 in his 45-year Hall of Fame career — will be in the hands of two-time Derby-winning jockey Mike Smith, who was aboard Mandella's dark brown colt in the horse's last two victories.

"Hopefully, Omaha Beach is getting better," Smith told Ed Golden of the Paulick Report. "The Derby is a tough race with a tough bunch of three-year-olds, but Omaha Beach seems to be the 'now' horse."

Post Time : Saturday, 6:50 p.m. Eastern time, NBC

Here's a closer look at the full 20-horse field for the 2019 Kentucky Derby:

No. 1 War of Will (20-1)

Trainer: Mark Casse

Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione

His disappointment in the Louisiana Derby was due to a slip out of the starting gate but he looked impressive in three wins before that. Breaking from the rail is problematic: the last winner from this post was Ferdinand in 1986.

No. 2 Tax (20-1)

Trainer: Danny Gargan

Jockey: Junior Alvarado

Claimed for $50,000 in October, he's hit the board in three graded stakes races since and has the pedigree to last at the classic distance. Unfortunately, geldings like Tax have only won the Kentucky Derby four times in 115 chances since 1908 with the most recent four never finishing better than 16th.

No. 3 By My Standards (20-1)

Trainer: Bret Calhoun

Jockey: Gabriel Saez

Calhoun's upset winner of the Louisiana Derby has one of the highest speed figures in the field. His sire, Goldencents, is a two-time winner of the Breeders' Cup Mile but finished 17th in the 2013 Kentucky Derby.

No. 4 Gray Magician (50-1)

Trainer: Peter Miller

Jockey: Drayden Van Dyke

This year's UAE Derby runner-up is taking a big step up in class here, but his pedigree screams speed and his front-running style could keep him in the mix until the end. A true wild card.

No. 5 Improbable (6-1)

Trainer: Bob Baffert

Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.

This chestnut son of City Zip never finished worse than second in five races, including his last two graded stakes against fellow Derby competitors. He will have blinkers off, a worrying sign Baffert is still tinkering with his horse.

No. 6 Vekoma (20-1)

Trainer: George Weaver

Jockey: Javier Castellano

This forward-running colt won the Blue Grass by 3-1/2 lengths despite a fast pace and will have four-time Eclipse Award-winning jockey Javier Castellano in the saddle on Saturday.

No. 7 Maximum Security (10-1)

Trainer: Jason Servis

Jockey: Luis Saez

This former $16,000 maiden-claimer got a perfect trip in the Florida Derby. He could be let loose on the lead in a field devoid of speed.

No. 8 Tacitus (10-1)

Trainer: Bill Mott

Jockey: Jose Ortiz

This son of Tapit leaped to the top of the Derby's points leader board with wins in the Tampa Bay Derby and Wood Memorial but neither were against stiff competition.

No. 9 Plus Que Parfait (30-1)

Trainer: Brendan Walsh

Jockey: Ricardo Santana Jr.

Imperial Racing's ridgeling is the first U.S.-based horse to win the UAE Derby but winners of that race are 0-for-10 in the Kentucky Derby. The best finish for a UAE Derby winner was Master of Hounds in 2011, a fifth-place effort.

No. 10 Cutting Humor (30-1)

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Jockey: Corey Lanerie

Pletcher's Derby hopeful set a track record in the Sunland Derby and has posted triple-digit Brisnet Late Pace figures (how fast the horse ran from the pre-stretch call to the finish) in three of his last four starts. He could get a piece of the superfecta at a nice price.

No. 11 Haikal (30-1)

Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin

Jockey: Rajiv Maragh

This New York-based colt hit the board in five starts but all required pace meltdowns over shorter distances. It is unlikely he gets a similar blistering pace in this year's Run for the Roses.

No. 12 Omaha Beach (4-1)

Trainer: Richard Mandella

Jockey: Mike Smith

He led wire to wire in his last two prep races and Mike Smith, a two-time Derby winner, aboard makes him a worthy morning-line favorite.

No. 13 Code of Honor (15-1)

Trainer: Shug McGaughey

Jockey: John Velazquez

Code of Honor's late push at Gulfstream Park, which favors front-running horses, in the Florida Derby was impressive and could set him up to round out the exotics but that's a best-case scenario.

No. 14 Win Win Win (15-1)

Trainer: Michael Trombetta

Jockey: Julian Pimentel

This closer got bumped in the Blue Grass and overcame a front-running bias at Keeneland to hold on for second. He closed into a fast pace in the Tampa Bay Derby, too.

No. 15 Master Fencer (50-1)

Trainer: Koichi Tsunoda

Jockey: Julien Leparoux

Just one maiden win (albeit a stakes race) in 2018 and one allowance win in January in six starts is all that's on this horse's résumé. The first Japanese-bred Derby contestant appears to be outmatched here despite having run the classic distance twice on the turf.

No. 16 Game Winner (5-1)

Trainer: Bob Baffert

Jockey: Joel Rosario

He is trying to become the third Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner to win the Derby in 34 years. He would be the first to do it without winning any race in between.

No. 17 Roadster (6-1)

Trainer: Bob Baffert

Jockey: Florent Geroux

The Santa Anita Derby winner is peaking at the right time after throat surgery and a long layoff. Can he win outside of California? No horse has ever won the Kentucky Derby from this post (0 for 40).

No. 18 Long Range Toddy (30-1)

Trainer: Steve Asmussen

Jockey: Jon Court

Asmussen saw his colt step up in class in the Arkansas Derby against three Derby competitors, but walked away with a sixth-place finish, 14 lengths behind the winner.

No. 19 Spinoff (30-1)

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Jockey: Manny Franco

This son of Hard Spun was caught four wide on the turn in the Louisiana Derby before giving way in the stretch, but that didn't stop him from earning a career-high Brisnet speed figure (102).

No. 20 Country House (30-1)

Trainer: Bill Mott

Jockey: Flavien Prat

Country House earned a spot in the Derby due to his third-place finish in the Arkansas Derby but hasn't dealt with a fast pace since the Risen Star in February.

[Catalano 951]

I might have a wee each-way bet on Cutting Humor...

Kentucky Derby 2019 Daily: Cutting Humor gets the ‘green light’

By Jonathan Lintner

April 19, 2019 06:24pm

 

Welcome to Horse Racing Nation’s Kentucky Derby Daily, which will each day leading up to the May 4 race at Churchill Downs detail all the news and notes related to contenders in one convenient space.

Entering the Sunland Derby (G3), Jack Wolf, head of the Starlight Racing partnership, didn’t believe the group had a 2019 Kentucky Derby horse in Cutting Humor. Even after the colt won on March 24 in a track-record time, Wolf still knew the son of First Samurai had to prove himself to Todd Pletcher, as the trainer’s 3-year-olds always do this time of year.

And as of this week?

“We’re on full green light to go forward,” Wolf said.

Friday morning, Cutting Humor beat some expected rain at Pletcher’s Palm Beach Downs base in Florida, breezing five furlongs in 59.58 seconds inside of Last Judgment, a budding sophomore stablemate.

“He came out of the Sunland Derby better than he’s been,” Wolf added. “He’s training better than he has.”

Cutting Humor could ship in next week for a final workout at Churchill Downs, but Wolf considers it more likely the colt arrives on an April 30 flight because “he’s doing so well where he is.”

Two starts back, Cutting Humor broke as the Southwest Stakes (G3) favorite at Oaklawn Park having exited a runner-up in allowance company at Gulfstream Park to open his season. That day, Cutting Humor carried jockey John Velazquez wide into the first turn. Those issues were cured when he nipped Anothertwistafate by a neck at Sunland Park.

“If you draw a line through the Southwest, which I have a tendency to do — of course, I’m prejudiced — then you can make a case,” Wolf said of Cutting Humor’s Kentucky Derby candidacy.

It doesn’t hurt that the future Hall of Famer Pletcher feels the same.

“He was commenting on how equal most of these horses’ numbers are,” Wolf added. “It’s not like you’ve got a Justify — a horse like that standing out from a numbers standpoint. Who gets the trip and can jump up on the day?”

Pletcher also trains the Louisiana Derby (G2) runner-up Spinoff, who had Velazquez up for his final prep. Manny Franco will ride on the first Saturday in May with Velazquez staying loyal to Code of Honor and trainer Shug McGaughey. A rider has not been announced for Cutting Humor.

[Red Rum 1,833]

Omaha Beach gone . Hopefully he gets back for Belmont as that will be almost 75 years to the  day since Normandy landings started  .That would be a timely winner. .