elvis

stallion for 2019

48 posts in this topic

On 5/7/2019 at 5:30 PM, Nasrullah said:

Zed by Zabeel. Zabeel sire of 166 SW (as discussed above over 100 is very good.)

Zed didn't get the chance to show his full ability on the racetrack and only had four starts.

His biggest crop by far was served in 2013 and foaled in 2014. These horses are will be 5yo's in on 1 August 2019.

Commenced stud duties in New Zealand in 2007

 

Analysis by Crop

Crop Foals Rnrs Wnrs Wins SW (GW) SWs(GWs) NZ$
08/09 90 43 26 80 1 (1) 2 (1) 1,586,804
09/10 47 30 19 77 4 (2) 7 (5) 2,767,617
10/11 48 31 18 55 1 1 2,171,433
11/12 28 17 9 29 1 (1) 3 (2) 725,670
12/13 19 11 3 15 0 0 211,013
14/15 132 54 28 55 1 (1) 1 (1) 1,071,803
15/16 40 12 5 13 2 (1) 5 (4) 1,478,993
Totals 404 198 108 324 10 (6) 19 (13) 10,013,333

Just a quick comment...the SW's would seem to be individual stakes wins, not stakes winners. SW would seem to be the individual stakes winners. So the overall stakes winners to runners is approx 5% which is OK. To put it into perspective, Redoutes Choice in his best season was 19.8% stakes winners to runners

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1 hour ago, Berri said:

Just a quick comment...the SW's would seem to be individual stakes wins, not stakes winners. SW would seem to be the individual stakes winners. So the overall stakes winners to runners is approx 5% which is OK. To put it into perspective, Redoutes Choice in his best season was 19.8% stakes winners to runners

Berri you are correct!

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Savabeel

Commenced stud duties in New Zealand in 2005

 

Analysis by Crop

Crop Foals Rnrs Wnrs Wins SW (GW) SWs(GWs) NZ$
06/07 86 69 50 153 6 (3) 7 (4) 4,377,233
07/08 91 79 62 221 11 (5) 23 (12) 9,242,423
08/09 83 73 53 191 10 (6) 23 (15) 11,109,129
09/10 89 73 45 167 8 (4) 16 (11) 8,070,262
10/11 98 84 62 249 7 (6) 23 (20) 16,415,440
11/12 53 47 34 112 7 (4) 15 (9) 8,614,801
12/13 136 104 78 238 12 (7) 19 (12) 10,668,752
13/14 134 110 85 226 10 (9) 14 (11) 13,250,516
14/15 116 95 67 151 9 (7) 14 (12) 7,361,723
2015 1 1 0 0 0 0 5,920
15/16 115 84 46 76 6 (3) 12 (7) 2,812,740
16/17 139 18 4 6 3 (1) 3 (1) 941,918
Totals 1141 837 586 1790 89 (55) 169 (114) 92,870,857

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Savabeel’s figures are outstanding must be very close to Zabeel’s.

Re Zed in the “old days” some jumps races received black type. On that basis Zed would have another 6 SW’s which would be 8% SW’s to runners.

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I know it would seem that he's gone very quiet (he actually hasn't) but Tavistock in his first crop he got 11 stakes winners from 89 foals......that's 12.5% stakes winners to foals...not runners!! 

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Berri that’s an amazing start. He obviously has the genetic strength to be a top sire.

What can change in environment etc to account for his current quiet run?

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Tavi Mac               3yo colt ex Bellaroof by Maroof

Wins on debut at New Plymouth in the hands of a female apprentice having her first race ride!

From my records the first Tavistock COLT to win in NZ since ATHLETICA won a Maiden sprint Awapuni on Sep 16, 2017

and only the 2nd since EXCALIBUR on December 17, 2016 (subsequently gelded)

 

 

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TAVISTOCK 2018/19 NZ SEASON - WINNERS [email protected] 12/5/2019

46 races won; 35 individual winners, 0  Group wins ; 1 Listed win (Tomelilla - Haunui Farm Karaka Classic)

·         32 wins by girls,14 by boys

·         25 wins 1000m-1400m

·         11  wins @1401m-1600m

·         10 middle distance wins (2000m -2100m)

         0 x 2yo winners; 16 x 3yo wins (12 from fillies, 3 x geldings, 1 x colt)

·         21 of the 46 wins are from 5yo or older (incl 7 wins from his first crop, ie 7yos) 

·         0 wins in August; 8 in Sept; 5 in Oct; 5 in Nov; 7 in Dec, 5 in January, 4 in Feb, 4 in March, 5 in April; 3 so far in May 2019

  • Most wins: (4) Donna Anne Billy;  (2) each by Moss Jazz, Lady Kartel, Shantav, She's A Goddess, Spring Delight, Mamma Sans, Granite Ridge
  • Best win: Tomelilla (Listed Haunui Farm Karaka Classic, Sep 23 2018)

· 

Will Tavistock's fee come down from $65K ...you betcha...but it'll still be pricey...I reckon $50k vicinity         

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Everyone has got this stallion wrong at the moment. If you'd seen my post on the topic when they were 2 yo you'd see that I said don't push them, don't sprint them too much even though you know they have speed because the majority of them are stayers. Tavistock is by a Derby winner. His dam is by a Derby winner and the third dam is by Highline, a staying sire of some ability.

Even though Tavistock was a sprinter miler, it was probably his demeanour that made him this but he was probably capable of being an extremely fast stayer with a turn of foot. That is what his progeny are. You would quite rightly ask how I may be qualified to say this and my response would be that I have been researching stride patterns since my university days. I've been mad enough (probably a touch insane) to have invested in technology to provide me with a solution to measure and record this. This is on going. But one thing I can do is bench mark characteristics that identify traits of ability and performance. One of these is identifying the traits that make stayers and sprinters.

Tavistocks are stayers. They're a bit hot headed, have the characteristics of holding their heads a bit high (a Montjeu trait) and have natural speed. So you've got to give them time, be patient and you will reap the rewards

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Tavistock Commenced stud duties in New Zealand in 2010

Analysis by Crop

Crop Foals Rnrs Wnrs Wins SW (GW) SWs(GWs) NZ$
11/12 85 69 52 205 9 (4) 25 (14) 18,606,754
12/13 75 61 44 155 6 (5) 15 (9) 9,863,104
13/14 57 44 29 75 1 (1) 1 (1) 3,375,161
14/15 73 53 34 56 1 1 1,970,596
15/16 148 70 35 44 0 0 1,128,175
16/17 160 9 0 0 0 0 14,192
Totals 598 306 194 535 17 (10) 42 (24) 34,957,982

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On 5/13/2019 at 8:18 AM, Berri said:

Everyone has got this stallion wrong at the moment. If you'd seen my post on the topic when they were 2 yo you'd see that I said don't push them, don't sprint them too much even though you know they have speed because the majority of them are stayers. Tavistock is by a Derby winner. His dam is by a Derby winner and the third dam is by Highline, a staying sire of some ability.

Even though Tavistock was a sprinter miler, it was probably his demeanour that made him this but he was probably capable of being an extremely fast stayer with a turn of foot. That is what his progeny are. You would quite rightly ask how I may be qualified to say this and my response would be that I have been researching stride patterns since my university days. I've been mad enough (probably a touch insane) to have invested in technology to provide me with a solution to measure and record this. This is on going. But one thing I can do is bench mark characteristics that identify traits of ability and performance. One of these is identifying the traits that make stayers and sprinters.

Tavistocks are stayers. They're a bit hot headed, have the characteristics of holding their heads a bit high (a Montjeu trait) and have natural speed. So you've got to give them time, be patient and you will reap the rewards

You'd have to say he is struggling though Berri, is it one Stakeswinner all season? for a stallion that had the start and stood at the fee he has it'd be a helluva  risk to send a mare to him. His 3yos don't appear to have done a lot either this season and there hasn't been any standouts despite the supposed better mares. 

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13 hours ago, benzracing said:

Am curious if one should look at the quality of mares a stallion is mated to, when trying to access a stallions performance? 

Totally agree. It was done with Frankel in depth with the racetrack ratings of each mare and it has now showed he has not done as well as his initial start.

 

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2019 New Season stallions

Roaring Lion by Kitten's Joy 

Timeform Rated 130.  Service Fee $35,000 +GST

 

Staphanos by Deep Impact

Timeform Rated 123.   Service fee $7,000+GST

 

Summer Passage by Snitzel

Timeform Rated 117. Service Fee $8,000+GST

 

Embellish by Savabeel

Timeform Rated 107. Service fee $5,000+GST

 

Ardrossan by Redoute's Choice

Timeform Rated 99. Service fee $8,000+GST

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2 hours ago, Nasrullah said:

2019 New Season stallions

Roaring Lion by Kitten's Joy 

Timeform Rated 130.  Service Fee $35,000 +GST

 

Staphanos by Deep Impact

Timeform Rated 123.   Service fee $7,000+GST

 

Summer Passage by Snitzel

Timeform Rated 117. Service Fee $8,000+GST

 

Embellish by Savabeel

Timeform Rated 107. Service fee $5,000+GST

 

Ardrossan by Redoute's Choice

Timeform Rated 99. Service fee $8,000+GST

Honour Be Thy Name ??

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2019 New Season stallions

Roaring Lion by Kitten's Joy 

Timeform Rated 130.  Service Fee $35,000 +GST

 

Staphanos by Deep Impact

Timeform Rated 123.   Service fee $7,000+GST

 

Summer Passage by Snitzel

Timeform Rated 117. Service Fee $8,000+GST

 

Embellish by Savabeel

Timeform Rated 107. Service fee $5,000+GST

 

Howard Be Thy Name by Redoute's Choice

Timeform 106. Service fee $5,000+GST

 

Ardrossan by Redoute's Choice

Timeform Rated 99. Service fee $8,000+GST

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On 5/13/2019 at 8:18 AM, Berri said:

Everyone has got this stallion wrong at the moment. If you'd seen my post on the topic when they were 2 yo you'd see that I said don't push them, don't sprint them too much even though you know they have speed because the majority of them are stayers. Tavistock is by a Derby winner. His dam is by a Derby winner and the third dam is by Highline, a staying sire of some ability.

Even though Tavistock was a sprinter miler, it was probably his demeanour that made him this but he was probably capable of being an extremely fast stayer with a turn of foot. That is what his progeny are. You would quite rightly ask how I may be qualified to say this and my response would be that I have been researching stride patterns since my university days. I've been mad enough (probably a touch insane) to have invested in technology to provide me with a solution to measure and record this. This is on going. But one thing I can do is bench mark characteristics that identify traits of ability and performance. One of these is identifying the traits that make stayers and sprinters.

Tavistocks are stayers. They're a bit hot headed, have the characteristics of holding their heads a bit high (a Montjeu trait) and have natural speed. So you've got to give them time, be patient and you will reap the rewards

interesting viewpoint, and there's no doubt that Tavistocks take time and stay exceptionally well. BUT how do you explain the fact that in NZ this season 36 of 46 wins have come at 1600m or less?

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Maybe it shows they really are good because they are probably winning at shorter distances in spite of the trainer not because of the trainer. I tend to agree with berri here. 

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On 5/15/2019 at 12:32 PM, Nasrullah said:

Totally agree. It was done with Frankel in depth with the racetrack ratings of each mare and it has now showed he has not done as well as his initial start.

 

Here is an interesting article via TDN Aus/NZ : 

https://www.tdnausnz.com.au/edition/2018-09-18/revealing-his-invincibility

The last column "MOR%" in the table shows the strike rate from a stallions mares mated to other stallions . The lower the "MOR%" the lower the producing quality of the mare. Obviously "I am Invincible" is the standout in this table and now doubt next few years that number will go up. 
 

See image link below for stats on a few NZ sires + Frankel : 

https://imgur.com/FM95MzQ

 

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6 hours ago, elvis said:

Maybe it shows they really are good because they are probably winning at shorter distances in spite of the trainer not because of the trainer. I tend to agree with berri here. 

and maybe the high ratio of sprinter-milers winning is showing that the progeny are increasingly throwing more to their sire than their dam. I'm no expert on this...

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