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Fixed odds deductions

7 posts in this topic

Had a bet on Helvetian at $13s and on checking results see it was a winner with the payout at odds $5.85s (a 55% deduction). Even paid over $7 on the tote.

Seems a very high deduction rate for a late scratching.

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A 55% deduction implies the late scratching was paying $1.45 when it was scratched (Deduction% = 80 / price of scratched runner). The closing prices (before deductions) of the field that went around add up to 52%, so if the closing market was at 120% that leaves 68% to have been taken up by the late scratching. A 68% chance of winning equals a price of $1.47 or so, so the deduction looks about right.

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I am not very bright but should they use 80 when their profit margin is already in their price. Seems to favor the TAB but someone more mathematically minded than myself may care to comment. I would think the market percentage at time of scratching should be in the equation.

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The "80" is used to account for their deduction. If they did "100 divided by price of scratched runner", the deduction would be bigger.

I believe they got the 80 from assuming a 125% market on average. 100/125 = 0.8. They could probably change the formula to use the actual market percentage, but given that they're now using Paddy Power/Sportsbet prices (which, on Australian racing, are from markets set lower than 125% close to race start time) it's probably better financially for punters that they don't. Plus having 80 as their standard number means punters can calculate in advance what their expected payout is, and the TAB won't receive a bunch of complaints from people arguing about their deduction being too big.

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I have seen Aussie markets close at 112%.  Taking into account the inordinate overhead expenses involved, particularly in Aussie, I don't know how some of those bookies could make a quid.  As one told me; "It is a battle, but we get by"

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18 hours ago, chiknsmack said:

The "80" is used to account for their deduction. If they did "100 divided by price of scratched runner", the deduction would be bigger.

I believe they got the 80 from assuming a 125% market on average. 100/125 = 0.8. They could probably change the formula to use the actual market percentage, but given that they're now using Paddy Power/Sportsbet prices (which, on Australian racing, are from markets set lower than 125% close to race start time) it's probably better financially for punters that they don't. Plus having 80 as their standard number means punters can calculate in advance what their expected payout is, and the TAB won't receive a bunch of complaints from people arguing about their deduction being too big.

So if you bet when the market percentage is above 125% then you are going to be disadvantaged by any deduction ?  Most New Zealand markets the preceding day are over 130%

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