Derby Day Ratings are Sacred

[Black Kirrama 1,513]

 

Derby Winner Ratings  going into Derby  (first two:/ three )

 

2018  Vin de Dance              R75

          Mongolian Conqueror R73

 

2017  Gingernuts                 R 78

          Rising Red                 R 70

          Jon Snow                   R 85

 

2016 Rangipo                      R 84

         What'sThe Story         R 67

 

2015 Mongolian Khan         R 83

         VolsStockn Barrell      R 83

 

2014 Puccini                        R 83

         Rising Romance         R 81

 

2013 Habibi                         R 85

         Fix                              R 85

 

2012 Silent Achiever           R 88

         Rockn  Pop                R 85

 

2011 Jimmy Choux             R 94  ??

         Historian                    R 77

 

Tomorrows Ratings in descending order:

( no Fillies this year )

#6  More Wonder       R 89

#1  Surely Sacred     R 86

#2  Vernanme           R 85

#5  Sir Nate                R 81

#7  Sponge Bob        R 80

#3  In A Twinkling     R 80

#9  CutaDeel              R 78

 

Horses that can not win:

8 The Chosen One; Beautiful horse: all too soon for him .Racing manners ?? Will reef pull and Sam will lead..

10 Nobu 

11 Botti  Baker had him. He's one paced and awful.He was the golden son for Sire Jakkelberry.Bob Autridge future jumper.

14 Tolemac. Paul Jenkins the lovely man bought him home for a visit to see his Grand Kids.Embarrassing runs in NZ. Another Camelot not suited to Southern Hemisphere.

15 Swords Drawn : my Shaune Richie trained rap horse.In October 2018. But he is Still a maiden.Another Camelot : Lucky to make the field.

                               low Rating 67.Maidens have won Oaks but never a Derby in NZ.

20 Sword in Stone   The Redwood gelding will  win  a Derby on his ear. Maybe HK. Rating 73 Two ballots from winning tomorrow. 

 

So with the expected Big Trifecta Pools tomorrow on the Derby:Provided they are comingled with Australia..

 

I will anchor  1 Surely Sacred and 16 Prise de Fer. 

More tomorrow morning.The great Gary Tims  ( funeral Wednesday )  loved Vernanme as a yearling >

 

Thoughts for the Derby ?

 

[Catalano 951]

I like In A Twinkling. Tough run last time out, wide around the first bend, sent forward and had every excuse to faint at the top of the straight but fought on strongly. 

Multi with Princess Kereru and have him as roving banker in a trifecta. 

Good luck!

 

[Insider 3,943]

Crown Prosecutor at 73 brought the average down!

[Baz (NZ) 1,722]

On 3/2/2019 at 3:33 PM, Catalano said:

I like In A Twinkling. Tough run last time out, wide around the first bend, sent forward and had every excuse to faint at the top of the straight but fought on strongly. 

Multi with Princess Kereru and have him as roving banker in a trifecta. 

Good luck!

 

In A Twinkling had an even tougher run in the Derby! What tough type !

So close Catalano   I sometimes prefer they'd run last than get that close!

[Houlahan's Dream 535]

Agree. Tough run. Looks like a top horse in the making. 

[Trump 2,741]

I agree with P4P. A 1600-2000m group 1 winning colt (in Oz) is worth far more at Stud than a Derby winner. Zabeel comes to mind as the best G1 1600m Winner That went to Stud in NZ. 

[Red Rum 1,833]

Drop the distance to 2000 metres maybe ?  like the French have done . French, Irish and English  Derbys  all very  important up North for Darley , Coolmore and the other big organisations but it's just a gut buster last horse standing here , and VRC , AJC it seems to me are similar  . Horses not bred for it here .

[Berri 2,131]

I don't necessarily agree. There used to be a pattern set up to determine the potential breed shaping horses and over the years this has been subverted. Since 1980 (the modern era) the likes of Grosvenor, Sovereign Red, Red Anchor and co have won it as colts with most winners being geldings. We've seen two newbie colts in Preferment and Tarzino win the race as colts and it will be interesting to see how they fare in their second vocations.

The reason for the placement of the Derby should have been to judge versatility of the horse. Used to be that you needed to be a good two year old that was fast enough to win a mile (2000gns) and versatile enough to win at the Derby distance early in the season to reflect maturity. The pattern then compared the 3 yo crop against the older horses at the WFA scale. That was so that you could bench mark the crops against each other. Over time this has been hijacked for betting, marketing and greed purposes.

We are a bit unique in NZ in that we don't have multiple states like Australia. Means that we could truly develop a proper program without the conflicts. The key to its validity in the UK is that betting on the classics starts before the 2yo season is have way through. We could do the same thing IF we had a couple of people who know what they are doing with the pattern of races and betting

 

[scooby3051 10,863]

The Derby in Spring at Flemington is an insignificant race now I believe and if it was moved to the autumn it would be given greater prestige.JMO.

[Trump 2,741]

4 hours ago, scooby3051 said:

The Derby in Spring at Flemington is an insignificant race now I believe and if it was moved to the autumn it would be given greater prestige.JMO.

They can’t move it to the Autumn Scooby. Firstly, it would clash with the Australian Derby and secondly, the Derby Day at Flemington is ensconced as the best day of racing in Oz (according to many good judges). It will never change - even though I agree it’s too early for most 3yo’s.

[scooby3051 10,863]

Then reduce the distance to 2000M then more of the guineas runners may carry on...2500 is too far at that time of the year.

[chiknsmack 484]

Isn't the VRC Derby a good test of the early-maturing 2000m+ horses? It isn't usually won by a horse that goes on to be an elite 2400m horse, but it's often won by the best horse at the time (a horse that combines precocity with the stamina to get the trip).

Given that owners nowadays are more likely to be urban syndicate members who want to buy a yearling and have it up and running ASAP (as opposed to farmers who can send a mare to the local stallion and chuck the foal in the back paddock for a few years to mature), and given that we just flat out can't compete with Australia for precocious FAST horses, AND given that Euro imports are taking over the open-age 2000m+ races, isn't there good value in the NZ industry focusing on VRC Derby-type horses (early maturing 3yo 2000m+ types)?

There should be 1400m 2yo races in March (or even February), starting with changing the Ellerslie Sires Produce Stakes back to 1400m. 1600m 2yo races in April and 1800m 2yo races in May should be added too. The horses we should be trying to breed can have a 2yo prep where they get to stretch out a bit, then go for a spell before aiming up at all the Derbies at 3. The best of them can then train on to compete with the Euro imports, while the next tier down can go around on the NZ stayers circuit as older horses.

It'd be nice to see prizemoney tilted in favour of longer races too, so that a R75 2000m+ race had the same prizemoney as a R85 mile or an open handicap sprint. Account for the fact that getting a horse to run over longer trips takes more time and more training, plus the fact that we want to encourage a focus on breeding and racing stayers. Greyhound racing sort-of does this (420m+ races have higher prizemoney than sprints), but they don't quite account for the fact that sprinters can race more often than middle distance dogs.

[Berri 2,131]

20 hours ago, scooby3051 said:

Then reduce the distance to 2000M then more of the guineas runners may carry on...2500 is too far at that time of the year.

Please....stop acting like a modern man...Next thing you'll be trying to ban 1600m races for 2 yo's