mike28

KARAKA MILLION 1200M THOUGHTS

16 posts in this topic

I think whisky neat will lead them up and get the best trip, probabeel is probably the best horse in the race but from the draw anyone have any bolters

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23 minutes ago, mike28 said:

I think whisky neat will lead them up and get the best trip, probabeel is probably the best horse in the race but from the draw anyone have any bolters

Not a bolter but I reckon Aotea Lad with J Macc each way will do me , I liked his run behind WN and at 6.50 and  2.30 the place it will do for me as a scrooge EW punter . 

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Real test for Probabeel. Aotea Lad ridden cold last time and finished well but I'll be having a lazy dollar on Yourdeel for fun. Handy horse I think but at least the draws should make it a real contest.

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In saying that I think Suppy Rusof is one of the best judges of pace there is at the moment. I think his strike rate bears this out. Louis Luck has had just the one start but it was over 1200, he won relatively easily imho and ran 1.08 and change. From the 4 gate and given natural improvement he too could be a player. And then there is the Whiskey.........

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I found Probabeel's performance astonishing.  Watch the replay.  See it getting hunted up three wide at the 800.  Then Opie took around the Cape at the top of the straight.  Was it eight wide or was it ten wide?  There must be an old timer here who has seen a better performance by a two year old.  I cannot think of one.

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On 1/25/2019 at 11:05 AM, Mattski said:

I'm having a nibble on Yourdeel e/w.  What about the 3yr old mile - Long Leaf's Aus form looks pretty good i.e. 4 lengths from Sunlight in the Coolmore?

Bang on , wouldnt bother taking a 3 year old over from here this year unless it's for a  Snake Gulley Cup where they might get minor place because they will need binoculars to see the Aussie horses backsides.The Autumn Sun would give them all windburn.

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On 1/25/2019 at 11:05 AM, Mattski said:

I'm having a nibble on Yourdeel e/w.  What about the 3yr old mile - Long Leaf's Aus form looks pretty good i.e. 4 lengths from Sunlight in the Coolmore?

Also not a great advert for both our guineas races at Riccarton imho.Beating best male and female 3 year old here .

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I wonder if the TAB would ever consider opening a book for the next years race straight after the sales.  As I sit here drooling over the yearlings going through K1 it would be nice to take an early bet  on the horses most of us could only dream of buying.

Lot 100 wins next years race unless lot 90 was to target the race from wherever she ends up.

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22 minutes ago, Aaron Bidlake said:

I wonder if the TAB would ever consider opening a book for the next years race straight after the sales.  As I sit here drooling over the yearlings going through K1 it would be nice to take an early bet  on the horses most of us could only dream of buying.

Lot 100 wins next years race unless lot 90 was to target the race from wherever she ends up.

If you are correct maybe print your post and if you ever apply to be Sheik Mo's head bloodstock agent bung it in because that would be some long range tipping.

I cannot see TAB bookies having the level of  ability to make a book now , when does it normally come out ? . 

Atyaab won Cape Derby overnight , AU suffix but really NZ bloodlines throughout ,   might encourage Shadwell to look closer here in future. Suffix and breeding so misleading though Beauty Generation has as much Argentine blood as NZ.

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3 minutes ago, Red Rum said:

If you are correct maybe print your post and if you ever apply to be Sheik Mo's head bloodstock agent bung it in because that would be some long range tipping.

I cannot see TAB bookies having the level of  ability to make a book now , when does it normally come out ? . 

Atyaab won Cape Derby overnight , AU suffix but really NZ bloodlines throughout ,   might encourage Shadwell to look closer here in future. Suffix and breeding so misleading though Beauty Generation has as much Argentine blood as NZ.

Just make every Te Akau horse $101 and all others $201. 

 

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