Mattski

The Graveyard - why??

16 posts in this topic

This has troubled me (and my pocket) for years! Why is Trentham such a graveyard? I guess there must be 3-4 small reasons? I used to think that the fact that all horses generally got their chance there i.e. you can come from the back Castletown style was one of the reasons. But this clearly wasn't the reason on Sat.

Smaller trainers seem to win more races there than say Ellerslie which can sometimes be dominated by Baker/F, Marsh etc. but why?

Different form lines with horse coming from north, CD and south (sometimes underrated).

Any thoughts?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I agree, always seems tough to win at Trentham... has been that way ever since I first started punting. Had my biggest ever bet at Trentham, and lost, on Krona... but when you think about how the tote works, for every loser (or losers) there must be a winner (or winners) so some folks out there have cracked the Trentham curse and must view it as a Gold Mine. Can't say I have ever met any of them yet though!    

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Some of those form reversals on Cup Day still have me in a state of astonishment.  That thing that ran second in The Cup; I would not have backed it in a R72 race at Winton!  Gorbachov's effort at Stratford was well below average.  That $56 winner;  It may have been worth $5 each way at Waipukurau, but Trentham?  Never!  I am trying to recall a day when so many out of sorts gallopers came into their own.  It happens occasionally, that is why we are punters, but to have so many on one particular day has got me scratching my head.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Its to do with the obssession punters have of a horses last 3 starts form. look at Enzo's Lad for example, its lead up races in 2018 were almost identical to 2019, yet somehow it price was massive. It was ignored in favour of a few who had in theory superior last few runs form. 

Many punters over estimate the importance of things like Barrier Draw, Weight, Gear Change & can change bets based on a factor that has a fractional % influenece on a races outcome, this is accentuated at a venue like Trentham where Northern, CD & Southern horses meet each other & makes matching up form far more difficult.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
46 minutes ago, Tauhei Notts said:

Some of those form reversals on Cup Day still have me in a state of astonishment.  That thing that ran second in The Cup; I would not have backed it in a R72 race at Winton!  Gorbachov's effort at Stratford was well below average.  That $56 winner;  It may have been worth $5 each way at Waipukurau, but Trentham?  Never!  I am trying to recall a day when so many out of sorts gallopers came into their own.  It happens occasionally, that is why we are punters, but to have so many on one particular day has got me scratching my head.

The "thing" that ran second in the Cup had won the cup lead up on the first day of the NZ Cup meeting. A lot of the SI horses are running around on tight tracks and they relish getting onto a big track again. It is also very hard to plan a proper racing programme in the SI, so horses are often racing in classes, at distances, at tracks, and on track conditions that just don't suit them.

It also pays to remember that the quality of CD racing is probably the lowest it has ever been. There is virtually no difference between the horses that race in $10,000 races and those that race in $30,000 races, so form is very hard to line up. There wouldn't be a sprinter in the CD in the same class as Enzo's Lad, Signify and Sensei. Likewise the CD stayers are awful; I don't think any ran in the first four in the Cup.

As an aside, rather than closing tracks in the SI and putting in an all-weather track, it might be an idea to start looking at remodelling some tracks so they have better start points, more distance options and longer straights. There is hardly a track in the SI that can run a fair 1,600m race; probably Oamaru the best, and then only because the traditional 1,600m was moved many years ago.

SI trainers aren't too bad either, and the top jockey is pretty fair.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, We're Doomed said:

The "thing" that ran second in the Cup had won the cup lead up on the first day of the NZ Cup meeting. A lot of the SI horses are running around on tight tracks and they relish getting onto a big track again. It is also very hard to plan a proper racing programme in the SI, so horses are often racing in classes, at distances, at tracks, and on track conditions that just don't suit them.

It also pays to remember that the quality of CD racing is probably the lowest it has ever been. There is virtually no difference between the horses that race in $10,000 races and those that race in $30,000 races, so form is very hard to line up. There wouldn't be a sprinter in the CD in the same class as Enzo's Lad, Signify and Sensei. Likewise the CD stayers are awful; I don't think any ran in the first four in the Cup.

As an aside, rather than closing tracks in the SI and putting in an all-weather track, it might be an idea to start looking at remodelling some tracks so they have better start points, more distance options and longer straights. There is hardly a track in the SI that can run a fair 1,600m race; probably Oamaru the best, and then only because the traditional 1,600m was moved many years ago.

SI trainers aren't too bad either, and the top jockey is pretty fair.

Riccarton and Dunedin both are great tracks with good long straights - Ricc [ IMO ]  is underutilised wrt distances,   can easily run 2500 + races,  and the 'open' handicap is often run at 1800m,  ffs..

North Islanders have a habit of looking at southern form somewhat down their noses..this last week just put the lie to that,  and Patrick Erin's form in Aus shows that he is well capable of measuring up there.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
29 minutes ago, Pam Robson said:

Riccarton and Dunedin both are great tracks with good long straights - Ricc [ IMO ]  is underutilised wrt distances,   can easily run 2500 + races,  and the 'open' handicap is often run at 1800m,  ffs..

North Islanders have a habit of looking at southern form somewhat down their noses..this last week just put the lie to that,  and Patrick Erin's form in Aus shows that he is well capable of measuring up there.

Yes Riccarton do hate running further than 1,800m for some reason. It is a great track and should be used more often.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Quite right Pam. The recent record of Southerners in the Telegraph and the Cup for that matter shows they measure up. Canny trainers like the Pitmans know what is required and set their horses accordingly. 

Winter racing at Trentham was always the worst back in the 70's and 80's with plunges galore...Peter Louis' stable known for them...so you were better off following the money if you could, rather than rely on the form.....:rcfe-like:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A comment was made on the Karaka preview show last night that the quality of the top ranked stayers in NZ is relatively low at the moment. I think that is probably more accurate than saying CD stayers are awful.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 hours ago, Tauhei Notts said:

Some of those form reversals on Cup Day still have me in a state of astonishment.  That thing that ran second in The Cup; I would not have backed it in a R72 race at Winton!  Gorbachov's effort at Stratford was well below average.  That $56 winner;  It may have been worth $5 each way at Waipukurau, but Trentham?  Never!  I am trying to recall a day when so many out of sorts gallopers came into their own.  It happens occasionally, that is why we are punters, but to have so many on one particular day has got me scratching my head.

You need to do your form abit better . If you did maybe you’d have backed a few winners

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I have mentioned this over a few years now but my late Uncle who was from Hastings told me many decades ago that South Island horses should be backed at Trentham over Cup week. Reason he gave was that they race at the NZ Cup meeting and then have plenty of racing over the Christmas/ New Year. So when they line up at Trentham they are match fit. 

Over the last 5 or 6 years South Island horses' record at Wellington Cup Week has been incredible with amazing dividends. The more South Island horses at Cup week the better. 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 1/23/2019 at 1:11 PM, Ohokaman said:

Quite right Pam. The recent record of Southerners in the Telegraph and the Cup for that matter shows they measure up..:rcfe-like:

I remember backing Fritz, who was trained by Neil Coulbeck at the time, in the 2000 Telegraph. Had been told it had no chance, being trained down south, which was the general consensus. Sprinted in at 18s. Can get some good overs for the right southern horse.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 1/23/2019 at 9:55 AM, Tauhei Notts said:

Some of those form reversals on Cup Day still have me in a state of astonishment.  That thing that ran second in The Cup; I would not have backed it in a R72 race at Winton!  Gorbachov's effort at Stratford was well below average.  That $56 winner;  It may have been worth $5 each way at Waipukurau, but Trentham?  Never!  I am trying to recall a day when so many out of sorts gallopers came into their own.  It happens occasionally, that is why we are punters, but to have so many on one particular day has got me scratching my head.

And that $56 winner wins again on the last day at Trentham up in grade - did you follow it with $5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now