Red Rum

Reefton

31 posts in this topic

Looking forward to watching a bit of Reefton today. Bit of sadness though as could be last one . Hoping it's not.5 furlongs round , it's something different.

For me punting secondary today , iam going to have more fun cheering the local horses Cinderella and Moreira to maybe take last race ever there.

And of course the superhero Scapolo. What a horse.

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35 minutes ago, Pam Robson said:

sigh...I'd like to have a bet...but I'm locked out, can't manually get funds out,  can't even get to the website.

...and the helpline..ffs...no-one answers.  For two days, no-one answers.

One runner Pam ?....you've got time.....;)

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15 minutes ago, Archer said:

Go the coast .. 

Any idea what it's looking like next year if you in know ? Two down and two good days racing so far . Kumara looking like tough punting . Decent fields 10 races.

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Interestingly, there are 118 acceptors at Kumara; compared with 94 at Trentham and 81 at Auckland. The Kumara Cup has four runners rated at 90 or over, the open stayers race at Auckland has one, and the open stayers at Trentham has only two, and it's a group 3, although surely not for much longer. Now which circuit is it they want to shut down. It could be argued a lot more money would be saved by shutting down Trentham than the West Coast.

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It could also be argued that NZTR doesn’t have a sensible or relevant handicapping policy and consequently many South Island horses are over rated.

The same applies to good honest geldings who’re not quite good enough for North Island premier racing, but are valuable industry assets for summer circuit racing, but sadly NZTR can’t tell the fucking difference !!!

If Scapolo, Overtheriver or Kaharau win the Nuggets Saturday will they need to run to about a 90 rating to prevail, no show, far less, but will they be rehandicapped, of course because NZTR has no idea how to rate horses ....that’s the reality of NZ ratings, they’re irrelevant and meaningless 

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27 minutes ago, puha said:

Think I heard Maygrove was being retired for the reasons your highlighting P4P. Another good horse that deserves to be racing.

Murray can’t complain.....Lizzie L’Amour has won half a million since November 2017, including multiple G1, G2,G3 wins and placing, and she hasn’t moved off 101-102, meantime the great provincial warrior Overtheriver copped another kilo for winning the 25k Greymouth Cup last week, he can’t get out of the 102-104 range the poor bastard, and in a handicap he’d be giving Lizzie 3 kilos !!!

There has never been a sport like this, stuck in self destruct mode with handicapping morons running the show.......mind you the licensees and owners just accept it......so you kinda deserve what you get

Leggy, go check Overtheriver v. Lizzie L’Amour over the last 15 months and revert, and bear in mind that she’ll never run in a handicap so it doesn’t matter if she’s rated 124, but he is only a handicapper so every point counts.

 

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1 hour ago, puha said:

Think I heard Maygrove was being retired for the reasons your highlighting P4P. Another good horse that deserves to be racing.

https://www.racecafe.co.nz/quality-stayer-maygrove-retired/

Purely retired because of the handicapping. Sad to think Grey Way managed 52 wins, whereas these days a good quality sound galloper can only manager 55 starts because of the system.

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2 minutes ago, We're Doomed said:

https://www.racecafe.co.nz/quality-stayer-maygrove-retired/

Purely retired because of the handicapping. Sad to think Grey Way managed 52 wins, whereas these days a good quality sound galloper can only manager 55 starts because of the system.

NZTR proudly had it as a headline on their website too.

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Two comments

Murray should’ve put as much effort into Maygroves rating as he has into Lizzie’s, then the old boy would still be racing at 12 

Secondly, NZTR loves driving useful and honest male horses out of the game ( whilst favouring similar females ) so they’ll be delerious ( the fuckwits ) because Maygrove earns about 20k revenue every time he goes around, and it’s been manifestly obvious for a long time that NZTR will do all they can to drive revenue and profit down as they strive to implode what’s left of this industry 

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22 minutes ago, poundforpound said:

Two comments

Murray should’ve put as much effort into Maygroves rating as he has into Lizzie’s, then the old boy would still be racing at 12 

Secondly, NZTR loves driving useful and honest male horses out of the game ( whilst favouring similar females ) so they’ll be delerious ( the fuckwits ) because Maygrove earns about 20k revenue every time he goes around, and it’s been manifestly obvious for a long time that NZTR will do all they can to drive revenue and profit down as they strive to implode what’s left of this industry 

I don't really know that NZTR are clever enough to actually have an agenda and implement it. I have always just put it down to incompetence. They certainly do their best though to ensure as small a fields as possible with their dates and race programming. The policy of only programming seven races and hoping to split one is absolute lunacy as it denies certain types of horses a start every week, while at the same time ensuring tiny fields in other classes.

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13 hours ago, poundforpound said:

 

It could also be argued that NZTR doesn’t have a sensible or relevant handicapping policy and consequently many South Island horses are over rated.

The same applies to good honest geldings who’re not quite good enough for North Island premier racing, but are valuable industry assets for summer circuit racing, but sadly NZTR can’t tell the fucking difference !!!

If Scapolo, Overtheriver or Kaharau win the Nuggets Saturday will they need to run to about a 90 rating to prevail, no show, far less, but will they be rehandicapped, of course because NZTR has no idea how to rate horses ....that’s the reality of NZ ratings, they’re irrelevant and meaningless 

From what I have seen lately both Scapolo and Kaharau seem to have dropped a level slightly in ability with age  so I agree they need to drop few kilos soon. Isn't point of handicap not to penalise horses but to in theory make them finish all in a dead heat. The likes of the three you mention inject some interest in the game because they are around year after year as a yardstick  , I look forward to watching them run.

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4 hours ago, poundforpound said:

Leggy, go check Overtheriver v. Lizzie L’Amour over the last 15 months and revert, and bear in mind that she’ll never run in a handicap so it doesn’t matter if she’s rated 124, but he is only a handicapper so every point counts.

I hate to even look at these examples. No doubt the handicapping system is a key driver for the doom that NZTR is engaged in achieving. As you know, a few years back we did a considerable piece of work for NZTR assessing the impact of the handicapping system changes implemented following the Carpenter review.

The two key (and indisputable imo) findings were that the female allowance in handicap races was distorting the whole ratings system; and that higher rated horses were winning an increasingly higher proportion of races than they should be relative to their expected chance in a fair and even handicap. As you suggest, NZTR were not open to making suggested changes even though the handicapper at the time indicated in advance what was necessary to make handicap races competitive within the scope of the current rating band system. He soon left following the inaction for greener pastures. Licensees also reportedly had no appetite for the suggested changes. Hence, NZ racing continued to be decreasingly attractive to punters and interest and revenue declined and continues to do so. Yet the same make the most noise about wanting higher stakes.

The Overtheriver cf. Lizzie L'Amour example exemplifies some of this.

Possibly worse, the example in the head post of this thread signals what might be an even greater problem which was outside our brief when we did that earlier analysis. That is that the system "rules" mean that horses like Maygrove and Overtheriver get rehandicapped for wins, even though they are only running up to their recent best performances and if they don't win, they do not drop back to a weight that makes them a winning chance.

This is not a handicapping system. It's a rort which fails to achieve the fundamental objectives of handicap racing which is equalising chance of all runners thereby creating competitive events that attract wagering revenue. This type of rating system as a proxy for performance assessment is a poor one, especially as it is currently configured. NZ  racing would have been much better off with a performance based system a la the UK with a couple of decent handicappers doing the job.

The current system could pretty much be done by a $500 desktop computer which would also not be prone to influence by phone calls from certain trainers.

I've said all this before on a number of occasions and given up. As you say " it’s been manifestly obvious for a long time that NZTR will do all they can to drive revenue and profit down as they strive to implode what’s left of this industry."  Where exactly the Members' Council, board, MIA, CEO, clubs, licensees etc. are on this is disastrous. Orchestrating their own demise.

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26 minutes ago, Leggy said:

I hate to even look at these examples. No doubt the handicapping system is a key driver for the doom that NZTR is engaged in achieving. As you know, a few years back we did a considerable piece of work for NZTR assessing the impact of the handicapping system changes implemented following the Carpenter review.

The two key (and indisputable imo) findings were that the female allowance in handicap races was distorting the whole ratings system; and that higher rated horses were winning an increasingly higher proportion of races than they should be relative to their expected chance in a fair and even handicap. As you suggest, NZTR were not open to making suggested changes even though the handicapper at the time indicated in advance what was necessary to make handicap races competitive within the scope of the current rating band system. He soon left following the inaction for greener pastures. Licensees also reportedly had no appetite for the suggested changes. Hence, NZ racing continued to be decreasingly attractive to punters and interest and revenue declined and continues to do so. Yet the same make the most noise about wanting higher stakes.

The Overtheriver cf. Lizzie L'Amour example exemplifies some of this.

Possibly worse, the example in the head post of this thread signals what might be an even greater problem which was outside our brief when we did that earlier analysis. That is that the system "rules" mean that horses like Maygrove and Overtheriver get rehandicapped for wins, even though they are only running up to their recent best performances and if they don't win, they do not drop back to a weight that makes them a winning chance.

This is not a handicapping system. It's a rort which fails to achieve the fundamental objectives of handicap racing which is equalising chance of all runners thereby creating competitive events that attract wagering revenue. This type of rating system as a proxy for performance assessment is a poor one, especially as it is currently configured. NZ  racing would have been much better off with a performance based system a la the UK with a couple of decent handicappers doing the job.

The current system could pretty much be done by a $500 desktop computer which would also not be prone to influence by phone calls from certain trainers.

I've said all this before on a number of occasions and given up. As you say " it’s been manifestly obvious for a long time that NZTR will do all they can to drive revenue and profit down as they strive to implode what’s left of this industry."  Where exactly the Members' Council, board, MIA, CEO, clubs, licensees etc. are on this is disastrous. Orchestrating their own demise.

Not sure if you've seen the At The Races show Ask the Handicapper . Some older ones on you tube , it's quite funny at times but Phil Smith head handicapper gets quizzed quite hard on certain ratings but he fights his corner. Horses up there at lower grade tracks been going years,  up and down ratings .General Tufto just retired 217 flat runs and into his teens. He's gone up to his mark,  down , up again like a yo-yo but keeps punters and connections interested trying to catch him right, among many others like him. Happy healthy racehorse who can win at right mark should be racing not penalised out of system. Endless bloody maiden races with horses   in shop window for Asia boring as batshit.

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50 minutes ago, Red Rum said:

From what I have seen lately both Scapolo and Kaharau seem to have dropped a level slightly in ability with age  so I agree they need to drop few kilos soon. Isn't point of handicap not to penalise horses but to in theory make them finish all in a dead heat. The likes of the three you mention inject some interest in the game because they are around year after year as a yardstick  , I look forward to watching them run.

One of the problems we have is that there aren't really the up and comers coming through to the open class ranks to put some pressure on the higher weighted horses, and thereby let them ease back in the weights slightly.  We don't have lower grade horses stringing wins together as they come through the grades to make the open class races interesting.  One reason for this is the inconsistent tracks they race on and poor programming of races. There is no feature racing at Riccarton for 70 days at this time of year. Just imagine if Sydney racing shut down for 70 days over Xmas. All three feature races at Auckland on New Years Day were won by lower rated horses, which tends to show the weakness of our established open handicappers. Having said all that though some horses are winning pretty good money in small fields because of our lack of depth.

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Harness Is just as bad a couple of wins as a old horse u have to retire.3 year olds get every 2nd win free.trouble is we think we know more than the really smart racing countries that encourage longevity.the main reason is lack of  nouse at the top of both codes.any one who has it is sent to the bottom of the heap and called troublemakers.sound familiar Mr Leo.

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1 hour ago, We're Doomed said:

One of the problems we have is that there aren't really the up and comers coming through to the open class ranks to put some pressure on the higher weighted horses, and thereby let them ease back in the weights slightly.  We don't have lower grade horses stringing wins together as they come through the grades to make the open class races interesting.  One reason for this is the inconsistent tracks they race on and poor programming of races. There is no feature racing at Riccarton for 70 days at this time of year. Just imagine if Sydney racing shut down for 70 days over Xmas. All three feature races at Auckland on New Years Day were won by lower rated horses, which tends to show the weakness of our established open handicappers. Having said all that though some horses are winning pretty good money in small fields because of our lack of depth.

What do you think about claimers , would it inject some interest ownership wise and give bit of life to lower to mid range horses here . If all weather gets going could try claim horse start winter and if racing regular it's ready to go have a few runs see how it goes , decide put it in another claimer etc. Gives extended career to horse and caters for people who don't want to or cannot afford to wait years for return.In reality most horses  be would be in the under 5k mark so wouldn't lose a fortune if it goes wrong.

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