RaceCafe..#1...Tipsters Thread.... Share Your Fancies For Fun...Lets See Who The Best Tipsters Here Are.
Nasrullah

racehorse rating for stallions

Recommended Posts

On 3/2/2019 at 2:56 PM, Swynford said:

I think the first question when it comes to statistics that hasn't been answered in this thread is " should brood-mare owners judge a stallion on its barn storming finish.?' 

Although my research was over a year ago and without mentioning any names it revealed to me that around 80% of horses (from those high priced stallions) didn't have enough finish in them to earn enough prize money to recoup the stallions current service fee.  If you were to add training costs the ratio was more like 90/10.....  or for every 1 good horse there were 9 slow ones.

So I don't believe that just because a stallion has a barn storming finish  it is going to throw this into your foal.

My reference to the Dubai /Singspiel cross (nick) which has produced 38% Stakes winners to runners was not something that I was recommending for your budget, it was merely to point out what is possible in this industry and that the pattern that I have been posting, "reinforcing a stallions female line', is present in this cross.

What I have always tried to do is understand your theories, which included our yearling challenge in which a failure, using your methodologies, was recorded. You can't seem to articulate why your "system" works and that is mystifying as I would have thought you would have like to have shared this with those that are interested. Your use of the quote that you have referred to, as being the only asset a racehorse must have If you are trying to identify a potential stallion, leaves you in a misinformed state. There are many attributes which, when combined, provide some people the comfort and confidence that they may have a stallion on their hands. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

On 2/27/2019 at 1:56 PM, Nasrullah said:

A question for Swynford.

While I understand what you are showing on your identified cross I have a question for you.

You are showing us pedigree patterns that have produced a good horse.

But that does not mean that the same pattern has not produced many slow horses!

Can you give us the statistics of the patterns you are identifying?

For example while Truenicks is very coarse (in that it ignores the female line of the stallion and the female line of the mare, and only compares the stallions sireline over broodmare sireline), it still gives the statistics of the cross.

 

The stallion Needs Further only has two runners that carry the pattern, Mystic Journey who is now a Group One winner of just over $1.million and Fiveandfurther winner of his last two starts and around $22,000  so far no slow horses. 

I think we all understand that any breeding theory will never work all the time,  (approx half of Zabeel,s progeny never won a race )  but when they do work a horse of the highest calibre can be the out come.  These are the sorts of horses that promote a stallion.

1325616222_MysticJourney..thumb.jpg.61b8ff724292c3d35b0ce798db732e8b.jpg

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.