RaceCafe..#1...Tipsters Thread.... Share Your Fancies For Fun...Lets See Who The Best Tipsters Here Are.
Nasrullah

racehorse rating for stallions

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As I started this thread I though that I should calm it down and add a point or two.

Firstly genetically it is incorrect to judge a horses ability on his bad runs as he may have had an excuse on a particular day.

Judge a horse genetically on its best run or highest timeform or similar rating.

Secondly the timeform ratings given out for instance in the daily ANZ newsletter do show that 2yo's are given a lower timeform than 3yos,4yos, and 5yos+. So I agree it is harder and riskier to judge the ability of a 2yo compared to older horses that have fully matured and are competing against the best as against earlier maturing 2yos.

Let's see if we can dig out the highest rating of each horse.

Thirdly be kind. 

 

 

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 I think judging a horse genetically on its ''barn storming finish' doesn't really help brood-mare owners much. Tavistock didn't even make the top 100 stallion list in Australia last year and he is in the same position this year.  Last season in OZ his 60 starters of which only 27 had some sort of a 'finish' won in total $1.329 million or on average around $22K per starter or $49K per winner. ( would'nt even pay training costs ) Darci Brahma probably provides better value.

Looking at the Stakes results of racing throughout Australia and New Zealand last week brood-mare owners would be far better off judging a stallion genetically on its 'tail female line' 

1622338914_SpongeBob.thumb.jpg.81bee09a4021f8d3464648ee92bc4d1c.jpg

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A question for Swynford.

While I understand what you are showing on your identified cross I have a question for you.

You are showing us pedigree patterns that have produced a good horse.

But that does not mean that the same pattern has not produced many slow horses!

Can you give us the statistics of the patterns you are identifying?

For example while Truenicks is very coarse (in that it ignores the female line of the stallion and the female line of the mare, and only compares the stallions sireline over broodmare sireline), it still gives the statistics of the cross.

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Possible the best "nick" in the world at the moment Dubawi over Singsiel mares.

From  26 runners ...3 Group One winners,...... 8 Group winners....10 Stakes winners   or  38% Stakes winners to runners.

Wuheida.thumb.jpg.e4cc8cb98732eedd9cc1c5147c59cada.jpg

    

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Swynford I would prefer you show us cheaper options as who wants to pay $500,000 service fee for Dubawi and purchase a Singspiel mare for $250,000.

Also prefer modern day results as the Zabeel over Vice regal mares was a long time ago.

Again I ask for statistics- SW to foals or SW to runners

 

 

 

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Swynford statistics please. Prefer large data sets etc.

Eg-

Sire Broodmare Sire Rns SW SW/Rns%
Danzig Mr Prospector 53 16 30.2
Sadlers Wells Habitat 62 16 25.8
Fastnet Rock Galileo 62 16 25.8
Southern Halo Salt Marsh 64 16 25.0
Mr Prospector Northern Dancer 60 15 25.0
Sadlers Wells Shirley Heights 94 22 23.4
Southern Halo Logical 126 29 23.0
Galileo Danehill Dancer 76 17 22.4
Sadlers Wells Darshaan 131 28 21.4
A.P Indy Mr Prospector 103 22 21.4
Sir Tristram Sovereign Edition 81 17 21.0
Galileo Danehill 226 46 20.4
Multidimensional Razeen 113 23 20.4
Storm Cat Mr Prospector 90 18 20.0
Hussonet Worldwatch 87 17 19.5
Danehill Sir Tristram 91 17 18.7

 

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Swynford, I was not there to offend you as I understand what you are pointing out in the tabulated pedigrees above.

Merely I am trying to get an exact picture on how successful or unsuccessful your recommended mating's are.

While you recommend duplications of the female line of the stallion with the sireline of the broodmare I would like to compare those results with other types of duplications.

For example sex balanced crosses of the sireline with the tail of the dam (damline of the broodmare).

One example is Danehill.

Thank you

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I think the first question when it comes to statistics that hasn't been answered in this thread is " should brood-mare owners judge a stallion on its barn storming finish.?' 

Although my research was over a year ago and without mentioning any names it revealed to me that around 80% of horses (from those high priced stallions) didn't have enough finish in them to earn enough prize money to recoup the stallions current service fee.  If you were to add training costs the ratio was more like 90/10.....  or for every 1 good horse there were 9 slow ones.

So I don't believe that just because a stallion has a barn storming finish  it is going to throw this into your foal.

My reference to the Dubai /Singspiel cross (nick) which has produced 38% Stakes winners to runners was not something that I was recommending for your budget, it was merely to point out what is possible in this industry and that the pattern that I have been posting, "reinforcing a stallions female line', is present in this cross.

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On 2/28/2019 at 3:18 PM, Nasrullah said:

 

Also prefer modern day results as the Zabeel over Vice regal mares was a long time ago.

 

By studying the past hopefully we can predict the future

Here is a link to an interview with Sir Patrick Hogan from Racing.com where he talks about pedigree analysis and bloodlines

https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=sir+patrick+hogon+talking+about+sir+tristram

 

This same pattern that I have been referring to was present in Zabeels sire Sir Tristram.

Grosvenor.thumb.jpg.eb111c2ce4d169e4cdb1fd0cf05130d7.jpg

Marauding.thumb.jpg.7dd0bc27462ea29b4f822aaef172acb5.jpg

 

And in Sir Tristram's sire Sir Ivor

2104039030_SweetAlliance.thumb.jpg.06b64a483faa97a6748d73e9e9d84d7d.jpg

54743513_LadyCapulet.thumb.jpg.4e2f660f5b57105a6b3e7cc918fb7a90.jpg

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