RaceCafe..#1...Tipsters Thread.... Share Your Fancies For Fun...Lets See Who The Best Tipsters Here Are.
crustyngrizzly

te aroha bias

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I will throw my two cents worth in here and say that this track has a long history of horses that are in front or thereabouts on the turn are still there at the finish. I know that it is a long run in (400m?) but there is just something about that track and front-runners.

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I believe the horse leading for home has a higher winning strike rate at Te Aroha than at Reefton. 

I am not making this up. I remember some interesting stats that Tom Wood provided when he did a Reefton meeting..

Maybe next Wednesday may provide proof - one  way or the other.

 

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At some point, most tracks can show bias. IMO, that bias is often mistaken for how the race is run. Take the Randwick Kensington Track last Sat. Up front near the lead was the go and horses found it hard to get past the leaders. Some jocks find it hard to judge pace or, are frighten to ride against instructions if the pace of the race is not favouring race instructions. The best trainers leave the riding up to the good Jockeys and don’t overload with too many instructions. Pace can change all that. 

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People tend to think tracks are either fair or leader bias. The vast majority of Ellerslie meetings suit horses finishing off in the middle of the track and being wide is no trouble at all (if with cover) as long as you can be nice and wide in the straight. Plenty of tracks have the opposite of a leader/on pace/rail bias but I think the understanding of such is limited.

On almost all tracks a dominant favourite may be able to lead and win but when assessing overall patterns there is no doubt there is a bias to overreaction and overstating leader bias tracks.

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On 1/8/2019 at 11:40 PM, Sickopunter said:

People tend to think tracks are either fair or leader bias. The vast majority of Ellerslie meetings suit horses finishing off in the middle of the track and being wide is no trouble at all (if with cover) as long as you can be nice and wide in the straight. Plenty of tracks have the opposite of a leader/on pace/rail bias but I think the understanding of such is limited.

On almost all tracks a dominant favourite may be able to lead and win but when assessing overall patterns there is no doubt there is a bias to overreaction and overstating leader bias tracks.

I think you're probably right SOP. All tracks have a bias. The horse in front at the post is the winner in every race. Too much analysis and too few jockeys know how to rate pace imho.

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Haven't walked Te Aroha but as far as I can tell from the replays there is not much camber and the turn is tight enough. Horses corner like american cars. The track also seems to fall away a little around the corner which would exacerbate the effect - imagine trying to drive said chevy around a corner at speed when that happens.

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