RaceCafe..#1...Tipsters Thread.... Share Your Fancies For Fun...Lets See Who The Best Tipsters Here Are.
Fartoomuch

Race or Sell

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Had this discussion numerous times in the last year and for the life of me im not sure there is a right answer. Everyone's heard the phrase, its met its mark, its used often by trainers and owners when they feel the horse is noncompetitive in NZ.

Similarly, in the TB code large numbers of horses are exported to Asia or Ozzie each year. Asia prefer trialed or well credentialed raced horses as a rule.

In terms of harness what is apparent is that their handicapping system is more conducive than NZ's to the longevity of the individual animal.

Most will have read about the decision by the owners to send Lockaburn NSW stable of the Trittons, note not a ex NZ based trainer such as Jones or Butt.

I'm sure also of the irony of seeing Tritton advertise for horses at around 67 per day with supporting info re stakes etc at Menangle.

Is our Handicapping system fit for purpose in terms of drop backs to retain potential exports and give them a reason to stay. How is it that many of our useful horses improve when they are trained by Ozzies. Look at Tiger Tara and how much he has won since being exported.

No doubt the naysayers and anti AS scribes will blame them and say that others in NZ  cant compete so they export them, i find that scenario bizarre and so do many others in terms of how defeatist it is,

What do others think about this issue????

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Interesting post and i suppose it all boils down to the horses owner and to  a lesser extent trainer.  You have to wonder what previous owners make of it when their horse improves and wins races in higher stakes races in Australia or are they just poorer fields

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It has always been sell, sell, sell. This not something that has just started now and certainly not because of Allstars. Go back over the last 40-50 years, in the days of Charlie Hunter , Brian Meale and Bob McCardle. Horses were being sold in droves to the USA and everyone thought it was the greatest thing since sliced bread, and it was. This "horses being exported" isn't something new. Less horses are being breed each year which leaves a smaller pool of horses to race and therein lies the problem.

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As hobby breeders/owners that patronize professional trainers and studs, our horses have always had to 'pay their way ' whether broodmares or  racing stock. Of course, a good earner means we can support more youngsters coming through. But if a horse has reached the point where continuing/bringing back in work is going to cost us more than it can earn, then we pass it on. As breeders we are only too happy to see those we've sold perform well as helps future sales. 

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11 minutes ago, Nelli said:

As hobby breeders/owners that patronize professional trainers and studs, our horses have always had to 'pay their way ' whether broodmares or  racing stock. Of course, a good earner means we can support more youngsters coming through. But if a horse has reached the point where continuing/bringing back in work is going to cost us more than it can earn, then we pass it on. As breeders we are only too happy to see those we've sold perform well as helps future sales. 

Thats a very good post and interesting perspective as you add in the residual value to breeders of horses that are successful offshore.

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It's certainly a poser, I have often asked how is it that the likes of TigerT, Mighty Quin, Smokin Up, Lightning Blue and there have been others, were just whackin away here considered 2nd or 3rd tier horses, are then sold over the ditch and become Champions, geez they gotta be doin/gettin summit right over there.....I personally don't believe they are simply better trainers etc so I would have to say we need to be lookin at our handicappin system, I would've thought the powers to be would already be onto it in that department, surely they've heard the talk and can see for themselves etc and if not why not?

 

Cheers Iraklis

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It would be easy to blame the rating system but  one of the underlying causes is a lack of horses in the higher grades.  For instance a horse rated around 80 - 85 will often have to race horses rated 100 -  130.  If they do find a race they can win like a country cup they jump up 8 points and their  only option is racing cup class horses.           They will then loose form but it takes 8 or 9 unplaced starts to get back to their low 80 rating.   No wonder owners are selling.   Could we have a system where we access a horses rating where it can be competitive and they stay in that grade until they have had maybe 4 or 5 wins?

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Nothing has changed in 30 years. I have had over 35 years breeding and racing standardbreds and although we always bred to race here in NZ the odd sale of a horse that seemed to struggle here was a way to help reduce the other annual losses. Only ever sold when two things where in place 1) the horse was getting nowhere here, and 2) we believed it could at least win back its purchase price, travel costs and more. Keeping a reputation for possible potential sales was important to us.

As for why did we sell well a story of one might explain ... 30 years ago we raced a horse who eventually won 8 in NZ and was subsequently sold to North America where he won at least another 13 that I know of. The core reason for sale on reflection was the lack of mid-grade horses in NZ. When he had 5 wins he was forced to compete in mobile C5 to C7 races every week which was tough on him as there wasn't the understanding of preferential barrier draw system. Then when he got to 7 wins it became C7 - OC mobiles. In the end it took a toll and we felt to be fair to the horse it was better to sell him into a better situation where he could compete fairly.

Same applies today due to the combination of poor handicapping system and programming.  IMO there is an over emphasis on falling back rating levels rather than building up mid rating levels regionally to ensure competitive fair racing across the rating continuum. The focus seems to be in getting horses back to below R60 as soon as possible. Australia or US offers a bigger opportunity that we can't offer in NZ. Owners will also need to take into account where the horse will sit in the system in Australia. There are far too many weird rated races programmed as well as Special and Discretionary handicap races. Buggered if I know how punters make sense of it all, you guys could tell me.  AS are a red herring in this discussion. They will be talked about but unless you are focussed on Group/Listed racing then really don't contribute to the decision to sell overseas.

Sometimes a change of environment or training methods can see a horse grow another leg. Have seen it happen a few times over the years, no idea why though.

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10 hours ago, lamour said:

It would be easy to blame the rating system but  one of the underlying causes is a lack of horses in the higher grades.  For instance a horse rated around 80 - 85 will often have to race horses rated 100 -  130.  If they do find a race they can win like a country cup they jump up 8 points and their  only option is racing cup class horses.           They will then loose form but it takes 8 or 9 unplaced starts to get back to their low 80 rating.   No wonder owners are selling.   Could we have a system where we access a horses rating where it can be competitive and they stay in that grade until they have had maybe 4 or 5 wins?

A few in this years Cup fit your 80+  description Lamour. Not top liners but races should be found to keep them here for as long as possible. Have a look at Geraldine Cup R 70 and faster and what a field and club is only putting up 20K

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7 hours ago, Fartoomuch said:

A few in this years Cup fit your 80+  description Lamour. Not top liners but races should be found to keep them here for as long as possible. Have a look at Geraldine Cup R 70 and faster and what a field and club is only putting up 20K

I thought the stakes for Geraldine are really good. Much better than most country clubs.

It is a good field, but going back to my point, if horses like Lochaburn   & Ruapuka Ruler were able to stay in that rating of 70 -85 it would make them more competitive as they don't have to race the likes of The Fixer, Ultimate Machette etc etc.   

I don't think the stake is a problem, owners just want to race where they can be competitive.

Racing for $14 - 20k where you are competitive is much more fun than racing for 100k but knowing you can't run a place.

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6 minutes ago, Taku Umanga said:

I've been let down by too many young horses showing promise but not going on with it.  My current 2 yo will be sold as soon as he qualifies and if he doesn't shape up his yearling half brother won't even be broken in.  

The average young horse can really get hit hard by the rating system. We had a typical example - a 3yo trotting filly with a nice gait and attitude but still weak, so hadn't developed a heap of speed and couldn't race more often than fortnightly at most. She did the worst possible thing - won 1st up in Taranaki, then a non tote breeders crown against 1 other horse (which broke).  With both counting as wins, she was up against tough aged horses with multiple wins and hit hard with nasty preferential barrier draws. To get down to a lower class race where she would be competitive would have taken months of training fees and would have broke her heart. We had other more promising young ones so rather than tipping her out to age and go through another prep, we passed her on.

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4 hours ago, Nelli said:

The average young horse can really get hit hard by the rating system. We had a typical example - a 3yo trotting filly with a nice gait and attitude but still weak, so hadn't developed a heap of speed and couldn't race more often than fortnightly at most. She did the worst possible thing - won 1st up in Taranaki, then a non tote breeders crown against 1 other horse (which broke).  With both counting as wins, she was up against tough aged horses with multiple wins and hit hard with nasty preferential barrier draws. To get down to a lower class race where she would be competitive would have taken months of training fees and would have broke her heart. We had other more promising young ones so rather than tipping her out to age and go through another prep, we passed her on.

Tragic, but ive seen similar far too often and usually with Trotters

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6 hours ago, JJ Flash said:

Latest to potentially depart the NZ racing scene is Captain Dolmio subject to obligatory vet test.

Greg

Not surprising. Unfortunately, the horse has not improved with the Dunns. I think the horse would have been better of staying down south with his original trainer and part-owner Matt Brinsdon. Mr Brinsdon did a great job with the horse while the Dunns have not improved him. Probably should have gone to All Stars or McGrath?

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11 hours ago, Thejanitor said:

Not surprising. Unfortunately, the horse has not improved with the Dunns. I think the horse would have been better of staying down south with his original trainer and part-owner Matt Brinsdon. Mr Brinsdon did a great job with the horse while the Dunns have not improved him. Probably should have gone to All Stars or McGrath?

Agreed, Dunn's never improved it and if anything they managed to stir it up with impatient drives. At least the connections don't have to gear it up while trainer on phone

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59 minutes ago, tim vince said:

U r tough.dunns gr8 trainers.very tough grade week in week out.

Each to their own Tim but the gearing up bit came from connections. As for R Dunn being a great trainer , IMHO he should be doing a lot better given how much he spends buying both tried and untried horses. A quick look at his massive  last yearling sales purchase suggest he should be winning premierships very soon given team AS scale back

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As claimers didnt take off in Nz perhaps another separation from the present set up used extensively in USA to keep horses racing.... is conditions such as "FOR UP TO 4 WIN HORSES THAT HAVE NOT WON MORE THAN $3000 LAST 5 STARTS." the wins and dollars won can change but advantage is trainers could find race with other horses in a struggling category.works well in uSA.(maybe even 1/2 points for win) dont like copy trump country but may be some merit with trainers/handicappers ideas.

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On 11/24/2018 at 11:24 AM, tim vince said:

U r tough.dunns gr8 trainers.very tough grade week in week out.

It's got nothing to with being "tough" or that the Dunns are not great trainers. I did not say that. What i said was Captain Dolmio, in my mind, performed better when he was trained by Matt Brinsdon at Gore. The horse came to Addington a number of times with Brinsdon as trainer and always performed well regardless of how tough the grade was. The horse has not been the same since being based in Canterbury in my opinion.

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17 minutes ago, Thejanitor said:

It's got nothing to with being "tough" or that the Dunns are not great trainers. I did not say that. What i said was Captain Dolmio, in my mind, performed better when he was trained by Matt Brinsdon at Gore. The horse came to Addington a number of times with Brinsdon as trainer and always performed well regardless of how tough the grade was. The horse has not been the same since being based in Canterbury in my opinion.

Im with you- good post based on the facts of the horse in question

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On 11/25/2018 at 9:47 AM, westview said:

Other than buying from the yearling sales which he does on owners behalf what horses has Robert bought, tried and untried?

And wait for it your trainer is----R Dunn.

Good on you for being so loyal, if he cant beat AS in next few seasons then perhaps you might want to change stables and make some money for your syndicates

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