2018 Melbourne Cup - Order of Entry

[Ohokaman 5,844]

https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/racenet/news/pdfs/2018-lexus-melbourne-cup-2nd-acceptances-order-of-entry-oct-29.pdf

[Red Rum 1,833]

Had look at TAB OM , Yucatan is 4.50, Kiwis for Cup, Macdonald,Waller,Baker combo 4s. That looks like good value if you like Yucatan and iam getting to point where I cannot see past it, only distance unknown but not  stopping at Caulfield apart from handbraked applied at 100 pole. You get Finche, Younster, WSTB  thrown in with combo maybe a Libran or Brimham Rocks depending on attrition or Lexus . I will wait until  day though as Yucatan not going to shorten up much further and if combo still there iam going to take it.Id donate Zacada back to them , like Sir Charles Road they wouldn't win if they were drawn inside gate being driven round in brand new Mercedes horse box, plodders. Hope the owners lunch is worth entry fees, invest in horses though,  take the chance pay all the fees good luck to them but no chance.Some decent outside hopes Prince of Arran just on cusp but won't make it unless win on Saturday.

Entry in Lexus might interest you, Shraaoh, ex Stoute , Ex jumps trainer Fry uk.Sold 30,000 guineas last year's Tatts horses in training to Fry but now onsold to Australian Bloodstock. Waller has it, out of Monsun mare that's produced Raheem House who's  half decent horse peaked at 114.He's only had 13 runs , won 2 ,was second to poor old Hamada beaten 7 lengths in receipt half kilo in that Newmarket race you flagged Hamada up in. Probably paid good coin for it as lots of tread left on those tyres for a jumps trainer to work on.

Aussies including Waller spent bit coin at HIT sale overnight, lot 1117 I think Midi is , that's the one I think be a bun fight for, 3/4 bro to Midterm.

 

 

[Ohokaman 5,844]

Muntahaa and Marmelo are the interesting runners RR...worth considering ? 

It amazes me the number of times horses with pretty ordinary form in the North suddenly transform once they get down here, while the spruiked ones don't live up to expectations....a generalisation of course.

Terrific run from Whoshotthebarman last week..he is so honest and will run well again but a 10yo winning a Melbourne Cup might be pushing it...

[scooby3051 10,942]

Marmelo was not given the best of rides last year but not sure he is in the same form this time round???

[Red Rum 1,833]

1 hour ago, Ohokaman said:

Muntahaa and Marmelo are the interesting runners RR...worth considering ? 

It amazes me the number of times horses with pretty ordinary form in the North suddenly transform once they get down here, while the spruiked ones don't live up to expectations....a generalisation of course.

Terrific run from Whoshotthebarman last week..he is so honest and will run well again but a 10yo winning a Melbourne Cup might be pushing it...

Marmelo fresh this year  , Muntahaa got the form in Ebor and conditioned by Gosden so no better really . Not sure if Team Williams in Idaho or Rostrapovich , don't look like they are in them. Therefore just think they are super confident Yucatan is hot by withdrawing some others. I know there are reasons but Latrobe , runs mile and 6 in Leger then flys out  around World  but then not mature enough for Cup. But goes Mackinnon, that Mackinnon could be weak though, no Winx, Humidor , Benbatl, unless iam missing something theres nothing left in Aussie can push Latrobe or Blair House in theory. 

Jockey jumped ship Youngster to Cross Counter so it must have recovered well. I  think iam narrowed down to five  at moment Cross Counter, Marmelo , Red Verdon , Muntahaa  , Magic Circle. Yucatan no value now but that NZ combo bet I might consider, but  i like finding each way value . Will just see how weekend plays out , who to drop out the five for  win /ew bets and box up a trifecta with Fav included.It's as it should be a hard puzzle with so many angles.WSTB same as that Precedence , always gives his all but cannot see him winning  or placing , top 10  again yes.I didn't think much of the MV Cup, bit of dead wood in it, comfortable dropping Ventura Storm out of it. 

As for stepping up form down here, Spirit Valour the one for me , he's come down with ok form to area Aussies rule and put up a good show.

Enable this weekend at Churchill Downs, I love the Breeders Cup, what with Derby Day it's a great weekend again, thank god for bit of mysky or I'd miss a bit of it.

 

 

[Ohokaman 5,844]

1 hour ago, Red Rum said:

Marmelo fresh this year  , Muntahaa got the form in Ebor and conditioned by Gosden so no better really . Not sure if Team Williams in Idaho or Rostrapovich , don't look like they are in them. Therefore just think they are super confident Yucatan is hot by withdrawing some others. I know there are reasons but Latrobe , runs mile and 6 in Leger then flys out  around World  but then not mature enough for Cup. But goes Mackinnon, that Mackinnon could be weak though, no Winx, Humidor , Benbatl, unless iam missing something theres nothing left in Aussie can push Latrobe or Blair House in theory. 

Jockey jumped ship Youngster to Cross Counter so it must have recovered well. I  think iam narrowed down to five  at moment Cross Counter, Marmelo , Red Verdon , Muntahaa  , Magic Circle. Yucatan no value now but that NZ combo bet I might consider, but  i like finding each way value . Will just see how weekend plays out , who to drop out the five for  win /ew bets and box up a trifecta with Fav included.It's as it should be a hard puzzle with so many angles.WSTB same as that Precedence , always gives his all but cannot see him winning  or placing , top 10  again yes.I didn't think much of the MV Cup, bit of dead wood in it, comfortable dropping Ventura Storm out of it. 

As for stepping up form down here, Spirit Valour the one for me , he's come down with ok form to area Aussies rule and put up a good show.

Enable this weekend at Churchill Downs, I love the Breeders Cup, what with Derby Day it's a great weekend again, thank god for bit of mysky or I'd miss a bit of it.

 

 

Talking about sprinters, I wouldn't be dropping US Navy Flag just yet. The straight six at Flemington might be his go. Too much talk and money for him so far says he is not done yet.

[Red Rum 1,833]

9 minutes ago, Ohokaman said:

Talking about sprinters, I wouldn't be dropping US Navy Flag just yet. The straight six at Flemington might be his go. Too much talk and money for him so far says he is not done yet.

Dead Right , more space bit more forgiving on sloppy start Flemington  but they will work on that. Might check out his Euro runs again see what he was like up there. No more than canter round Friday at back , do more at home.Not sure if Redkirk Warrior in training at moment as he goes well straight into the Flemington big ones.

Roaring Lion drawn two , Suroor's Thunder Snow in one  in Classic Sunday, go forward or eat mile and quarter of dirt. 

[Catalano 951]

1 hour ago, Red Rum said:

down to five  at moment Cross Counter, Marmelo , Red Verdon , Muntahaa  , Magic Circle.

So RR, solely on European form, over 3200m, with the weights allocated in the Cup - what order would you rate the foreign horses?

[Red Rum 1,833]

5 hours ago, Catalano said:

So RR, solely on European form, over 3200m, with the weights allocated in the Cup - what order would you rate the foreign 

Got to move outside 3200 form Catalano as most over 2400 2600 , Marmelo only ran 3200 once for example.Simply on weight factoring in 6 lbs northern wfa over 2 miles at this time year I cannot see how Cross Counter and Rostrapovich are not thrown in, Rekindling has shown the way maybe. Yucatan on other hand on Euro form now poorly in with penalty  but he was swapped on route for a cloned superhorse on a stopover.For example he left 3 lbs behind Red Verdon and has to give him a slight weight advantage . I think he stays  though he wins , he's flying at moment.

I like ew value though so looking outside him for me Euros in order Cross Counter, Muntahaa, Magic Circle , Red Verdon and Marmelo. Will see what the value is come Tuesday.

Head to Head Red Verdon beaten 6 lengths by Magic Circle  at Sandown in May over 3200 at levels ,Sandown right handed stiff uphill run to home , would have suited Magic Circle better ,RV   now gets 4lbs but UK is rated 6lb inferior.So is Magic Circle well in ?  I always think when it's a pound here and there , there a bigger factors to consider than that .

Ive put line through other Euros for various unscientific reasons .COM for example not sure he's fully into the fight without ducking in a bit, Best Solution great Caulfield Cup win jockey was awesome , not sure he can do it again, Duretto, it's not Chester and that's where he wins now days,  Rostrapovich don't think he will stay, Finche races I've seen him he seems to get outpaced then run on late just don't like him.Geelong Cup average this year ,  Withhold carried weight bled and still beat half field in it. Like I say very unscientific .

 

 

 

 

 

[Catalano 951]

13 hours ago, Red Rum said:

 Yucatan on other hand on Euro form now poorly in with penalty

 

https://www.punters.com.au/news/cumani%3A-everyone-"carried-away"-with-yucatan_174022/

 

International racing pundit Francesca Cumani believes people have gotten "carried away" with Melbourne Cup favourite Yucatan ahead of next Tuesday's $7.3 million race.

With a week to go, Yucatan - who is now officially known as Yucatan Ire in Australia - is a $4.50 favourite with BetEasy following his dominant win in the Herbert Power Stakes (2400m) on October 13.

The Aidan O'Brien-trained galloper is the only horse under double figures and the clear top elect, with Cross Counter a $10 second favourite. 

Speaking on RSN on Tuesday morning, Cumani indicated she thinks the early fanfare is over the top and said Yucatan benefited from a James McDonald "masterclass" in the Herbert Power. 

"I think Yucatan Ire, everyone's just got carried away with him," Cumani said. 

"On European form he's definitely not the best-performed horse of the internationals. 

"When he came here it was an actual masterclass [from James McDonald].

"The race slowed down mid-race and then James just let his horse keep rolling at a nice tempo. He hit the front and then what was impressive was the way he managed to keep going and then he was eased down on the line. But that's just an example of a European horse being able to use his stamina and maintain good fractions for a long way.

"If he can do that to that field, I just think there's some others that'll be even better."

[Ohokaman 5,844]

She might be right Cat.

Bendigo Cup today...Patrick Erin scratching is interesting.

Looks a two horse race - Lord Fandango and Dal Harraild...?

Both well down the qualifying order though.

[Trump 2,741]

FURRION was set for this race long ago. Back Weir Drink beer.

[Catalano 951]

37 minutes ago, Trump said:

FURRION was set for this race long ago. Back Weir Drink beer.

Ahhh yes, but which Weir runner? 

Maybe have a saver on Ormito?

[Catalano 951]

 

https://horsebetting.com.au/williams-cup-squad-light-on-for-numbers/90274/

 

While they had the one-two finish last year, Williams said people forget they also owned the horses which finished second last and last.

“It’s not that easy but if we can get a couple of horses there going OK, that would be great,” Williams said.

“The horses are in good order but how they’ll run, God only knows.

“You’ve just got to hope if TJ (Comerford) and his team can get them there, they can run well.”

As he watches his own horses go through their paces, Williams also keeps an eye on the other international gallopers working at Werribee.

“I think Marmelo is going very well. He’d be one I’d be putting a circle around,” he said.

“Magic Circle is obviously going alright but Marmelo looks to be going particularly well.”

[Trump 2,741]

4 hours ago, Catalano said:

Ahhh yes, but which Weir runner? 

Maybe have a saver on Ormito?

FURRION- owned by the Bendigo Cup Sponsor and set for this race.

[Ohokaman 5,844]

19 minutes ago, Trump said:

FURRION- owned by the Bendigo Cup Sponsor and set for this race.

Not very well obviously....

[Trump 2,741]

14 hours ago, Ohokaman said:

Not very well obviously....

Yes Ohakason. He loomed to go “Zoom!” But then laboured. Now for Derby Day ! 

[Ohokaman 5,844]

If you are interested in ratings, have a read.

https://www.racing.com/news/2018-11-01/preview-likely-melbourne-cup-runners-ranked

[mike28 182]

i think any horse that hasnt run the distance should not be less than $5 yucatan is that horse although he is in my top 4 i dont see it value

[Red Rum 1,833]

2 hours ago, Ohokaman said:

If you are interested in ratings, have a read.

https://www.racing.com/news/2018-11-01/preview-likely-melbourne-cup-runners-ranked

Good read OM, thing as an amateur at this punting is i wonder where they get a forecast  two to three length improvement on Yucatan. Distance unproven but nothing to say he won't stay I suppose, I know he was eased up but had slipped the field in HP .Was he fat in the yard and left a clear amount to work on , timing gallops ?  Just wonder where Nic Ashman when he  forecasts two three lengths improvement on HP where it's coming from , blimey he improved 10 lengths on two rear guard finishes up north this year. I just love to know how the pros arrive at that to learn .He real poor in weights if that HP treated as one off. That's the punting risk though.Was awesome win . 

[chelseacol 2,488]

46 minutes ago, Red Rum said:

Good read OM, thing as an amateur at this punting is i wonder where they get a forecast  two to three length improvement on Yucatan. Distance unproven but nothing to say he won't stay I suppose, I know he was eased up but had slipped the field in HP .Was he fat in the yard and left a clear amount to work on , timing gallops ?  Just wonder where Nic Ashman when he  forecasts two three lengths improvement on HP where it's coming from , blimey he improved 10 lengths on two rear guard finishes up north this year. I just love to know how the pros arrive at that to learn .He real poor in weights if that HP treated as one off. That's the punting risk though.Was awesome win . 

loving the build up - good to hear lots of opinions. Your NH knowledge adds great interest RR

[Gruff 2,800]

Hebert power? Reminds me of the 20 k multi I missed on with Alcopop after he easily accounted for shocking in the JRA cup , I backed Shocking in the Lexus but couldn’t have him to beat Alcopop in the Cup...the rest is history... I don’t care what happened weeks ago this race is won with timing and I’m with the Marmelo , Magic Circle and the cross counter camps with the one crack strategy, Marmelo hit the line better than anything in last years caulfield but was ridden handy in the Melbourne off the fence where the first three all had rails runs, trainer decided one go this time around. The  rail has been kind for Cup horses in recent years but in saying that you rarely see many of the also rans looking unlucky many just outstayed on the day....Corey Brown, he’s the new Bart Cummings has this race wired

[GOM 1,017]

One of the only commentators to give Best Solution a real chance. Seem's the forgotten ingredient to me

[Ohokaman 5,844]

9 hours ago, Gruff said:

Hebert power? Reminds me of the 20 k multi I missed on with Alcopop after he easily accounted for shocking in the JRA cup , I backed Shocking in the Lexus but couldn’t have him to beat Alcopop in the Cup...the rest is history... I don’t care what happened weeks ago this race is won with timing and I’m with the Marmelo , Magic Circle and the cross counter camps with the one crack strategy, Marmelo hit the line better than anything in last years caulfield but was ridden handy in the Melbourne off the fence where the first three all had rails runs, trainer decided one go this time around. The  rail has been kind for Cup horses in recent years but in saying that you rarely see many of the also rans looking unlucky many just outstayed on the day....Corey Brown, he’s the new Bart Cummings has this race wired

You'll be pleased with this then Gruffy...

UK trainer Hughie Morrison will find out whether a revised preparation will pay off in Tuesday’s Melbourne Cup.

Morrison has brought Marmelo back to Australia for another crack at the Melbourne Cup after running ninth in last year’s edition of the great race.

Marmelo ran a pleasing sixth in the 2017 Caulfield Cup before tackling the Melbourne Cup at his second Australian run. However, Morrison decided against giving the stayer a lead-up run this time.

 

Morrison said he would find out on Tuesday whether he made the right call.

“If you don’t learn from previous experiences, you’re not being particularly clever,” Morrison said.

“Next week could prove me wrong that we could have done with an extra run but I have always felt the horse, he runs well fresh.”

Morrison laid eyes on Marmelo for the first time in more than two weeks when he arrived at the Werribee quarantine centre but the English horseman was pleased with what he saw.

“I think he’s done well,” Morrison said. “He looks as well as he did before he left. According to the scales, he has lost a bit of weight but it doesn’t look like that to me.

“He looks very well in his skin, which is important, and he seems very laid-back.”

Marmelo worked with Melbourne Cup rider Hugh Bowman aboard in company with fellow Melbourne Cup contender Magic Circle for the second successive week at Werribee on Wednesday morning.

Magic Circle led the work early before Marmelo improved to be close to his work partner on the line with the hit-out pleasing both Morrison and Bowman.

However, Morrison has a pair of concerns about Marmelo’s chances in Tuesday’s $7 million event.

“The draw I think is the biggest issue,” Morrison said.

“Honestly, I think you need a Group I horse handicapped to be a Group III horse to win this race.

“We have got a way to go because I think he’s a Group II horse handicapped as a Group II horse.”

Morrison said he rated the Godolphin stayer Cross Counter as one of the best international chances while he added the John Gosden-trained Muntahaa was well in at the weights in the Melbourne Cup.

“From the European horses, you have to respect the Godolphin three-year-old (Cross Counter) and I think Muntahaa looks well handicapped,” Morrison said.

[Ohokaman 5,844]

11 hours ago, Red Rum said:

Good read OM, thing as an amateur at this punting is i wonder where they get a forecast  two to three length improvement on Yucatan. Distance unproven but nothing to say he won't stay I suppose, I know he was eased up but had slipped the field in HP .Was he fat in the yard and left a clear amount to work on , timing gallops ?  Just wonder where Nic Ashman when he  forecasts two three lengths improvement on HP where it's coming from , blimey he improved 10 lengths on two rear guard finishes up north this year. I just love to know how the pros arrive at that to learn .He real poor in weights if that HP treated as one off. That's the punting risk though.Was awesome win . 

Watch Sectional Stars RR..where they give you this info...on before Formline and Get On on Saturday morning.....