RaceCafe..#1...Tipsters Thread.... Share Your Fancies For Fun...Lets See Who The Best Tipsters Here Are.
Pegasus 9

Caulfield Cup

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7 hours ago, Ohokaman said:

Had a go at the Quaddie RR, though this rain has not helped any...:rolleyes:

R1- 3,5,7   R2- 1,2,5,9,11,14,18   R3- 3,4,9     R4- 5 and 8.

 

Top work on Best Solution OM, fair play you  stuck to your guns after wide  draw hope you picked up a bit on it. Great ride got him in without burning him up, looked like he over revved for a second but settled. Watched interview with Pat Cosgrove last night on RP tv and he said horse does anything he asks of it. Great win , top weight , wide draw , pleased Saeed Bin Suroor getting results as I posted last week he sometimes gets an  uncalled for bad rap as had few lean seasons by his high standards..I made mistake of doubting the quality of that last German win and didn't like it  but group 1 winning form always good form and he won .Homesman, COM  franked Benbatl form. Great result for internationals though 1,3,4 . My two just ok,  RV boxed on as VS did , so I pick last of four Euros so poor punting on my part. 

However Mask of Time dug me out of trouble and put me a shade in profit on day , it was only matter time with that horse but must admit thought it had missed so dead heat a bonus top up of my account.

On first watch Youngster ran on OK from rear but I think it's doubtful the Melb Cup is  staying in Australia this year on todays form. 

Verry Elleegant  looked real good today.

Geelong Cup looking a cracker, and then next week it's all on, Avilius, Benbatl and real left field possible  Rostrapovich  if he runs , fresh challengers to Winx , what a week ahead.

Ascot overnight worth a record, Champions Day. 

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Yes was a great day RR. Terrific performance from Best Solution, had everything against him but toughed it out. The Aussies were pretty ordinary and the two favourites never got into the race.Ventura Storm I warmed to late on, but didn't run on either.

Noticeable the track favoured those on the speed, very little came from well back on the day. The Kiwi filly was very good, great story that.

Next week promises to be just as good as you say....Winx might have a real (ben)battle on her hands this time..!

 

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18 minutes ago, Ohokaman said:

Yes was a great day RR. Terrific performance from Best Solution, had everything against him but toughed it out. The Aussies were pretty ordinary and the two favourites never got into the race.Ventura Storm I warmed to late on, but didn't run on either.

Noticeable the track favoured those on the speed, very little came from well back on the day. The Kiwi filly was very good, great story that.

Next week promises to be just as good as you say....Winx might have a real (ben)battle on her hands this time..!

 

Champions Day Ascot looked good. Moore opened door for Dettori on Stradivarius in long distance , Roaring Lion dropped back to mile to great effect under Benbatl jockey Osin Murphy and wow Cracksman was mighty. He looks like his mind is elsewhere since the Ganay win but apart from Royal Ascot behind Poets Word he's done it.

Latest ratings before weekend.

Crystal Ocean 129

Cracksman 125

Best Solution 118.

On what happened  overnight if Cracksman don't exceed his peak of 130 I'd be surprised .

Gosden what a trainer.

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Having watched the Cup again, that slow pace really buggered quite a few chances in the race. It was really hard to make any ground from the back and Kings Will Dream possibly a little unlucky missing the start then got knocked around a bit. As Pat Cosgrove said, the winner had to do a lot of work early to get a position and was there to be beaten. Credit to the horse for fighting on the way he did.

Duretto was a run from  Melbourne Cup point of view. 

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2 minutes ago, Gruff said:

History says Caulfield is a good lead to Melbourne..... this year???? Not for mine look elsewhere :rcfe-happy-2:

Got to agree with you Gruff, few run themselves out of Cup.  I think committee have a power to drop horse if they think totally out form, not sure if they have used it before ,  I know it's harsh but Mighty Boss (think hasn't met qualifying condition anyway) , Sir Charles Road and Jon Snow on yesterday at Caulfield really just going to cause traffic problems for horses in with a real chance.Costs bit of coin to run but I would guess great day out for owners so if they get in enjoy the day likely once in lifetime good luck to them  but those horses got shit show of getting within 15 lengths of winner at best.

Discounted winner to my cost yesterday and it's got some fight sire  Kodiac though 2 miles not sure  , Red Verdon I've forgiven, was tough old passage but wouldn't have placed though would have got closer, strikes me as slight dodgepot tendencies but will get a few coins from me next month for insurance.KWD sounds like struck into and decent cut .

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12 hours ago, Red Rum said:

Champions Day Ascot looked good. Moore opened door for Dettori on Stradivarius in long distance , Roaring Lion dropped back to mile to great effect under Benbatl jockey Osin Murphy and wow Cracksman was mighty. He looks like his mind is elsewhere since the Ganay win but apart from Royal Ascot behind Poets Word he's done it.

Latest ratings before weekend.

Crystal Ocean 129

Cracksman 125

Best Solution 118.

On what happened  overnight if Cracksman don't exceed his peak of 130 I'd be surprised .

Gosden what a trainer.

Looks like he might be retired now RR.

IMG_3614.JPG

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Red Rum, both you and I know that, generally speaking, Kodiac is a wonderful sire of early maturing horses over a short distance. 

Yet my one and only bet in the Cup yesterday was on the winner because class and ability always out performs pedigree. 

Dont be fooled when it comes to the Melbourne Cup. 

Liz

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13 minutes ago, Ohokaman said:

Looks like he might be retired now RR.

IMG_3614.JPG

Apparently sorting the stud deal.He will be worth a kings ransom. He's had his mind on endgame all season OM and looked bit shifty at times in run  yesterday but Frankie cajoled him into the zone  brilliantly . Although it's sad to see him go it's the right time for him in that mindset as it won't get better with age I wouldn't have thought ?  Owner had Golden Horn and Cracksman within couple years , good effort. More disappointed seeing Roaring Lion go but money talks , he won the right races , was a time it was off to stud straight out of horse box  exit from Epsom Downs so far play to RL owners they've danced most dances this year and avoided no one.Stradivarius stays in training ,  La Ti Dar will be good next year and Gosdens got two cracking juveniles for next year.

Maverick Wave looks like it was loaned out for day by Godolphin , he's a good horse in own right but like Bullit Train to Frankel he's the master pacemaker for hire.

 

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On 10/20/2018 at 11:24 PM, Red Rum said:

Top work on Best Solution OM, fair play you  stuck to your guns after wide  draw hope you picked up a bit on it. Great ride got him in without burning him up, looked like he over revved for a second but settled. Watched interview with Pat Cosgrove last night on RP tv and he said horse does anything he asks of it. Great win , top weight , wide draw , pleased Saeed Bin Suroor getting results as I posted last week he sometimes gets an  uncalled for bad rap as had few lean seasons by his high standards..I made mistake of doubting the quality of that last German win and didn't like it  but group 1 winning form always good form and he won .Homesman, COM  franked Benbatl form. Great result for internationals though 1,3,4 . My two just ok,  RV boxed on as VS did , so I pick last of four Euros so poor punting on my part. 

However Mask of Time dug me out of trouble and put me a shade in profit on day , it was only matter time with that horse but must admit thought it had missed so dead heat a bonus top up of my account.

On first watch Youngster ran on OK from rear but I think it's doubtful the Melb Cup is  staying in Australia this year on todays form. 

Verry Elleegant  looked real good today.

Geelong Cup looking a cracker, and then next week it's all on, Avilius, Benbatl and real left field possible  Rostrapovich  if he runs , fresh challengers to Winx , what a week ahead.

Ascot overnight worth a record, Champions Day. 

Geelong Cup looks like a Withhold v Finche battle RR.....

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55 minutes ago, Ohokaman said:

Geelong Cup looks like a Withhold v Finche battle RR.....

Just talking about that race with a mate. Withhold must be near modern day record , won last two races beating a total of 52 rivals in total in two races. Both those races hard to win traditional years old handicaps but over 2 miles and further so that is a query Wednesday.Cesarewitch a hard out gut buster up that Newmarket straight. He will get full bore Wednesday if needs be to win   because if they decide to run its to get the penalty, they don't want to run one bit but hand being forced  .He's clearly a horse that wants little racing .Finche to me got bit more class about him and form behind Cracksman in Prix Niel last year albeit at a  distance ,  but  lot further behind him in Ganay this year . Was only a length behind Avilius in Prix Neil though and Avilius would be odds on if in Wednesday race so the 4.80 Finche  and almost evens the place appeals to my ew reserve the bank value  tactics. Both drawn well, Withhold should go forward avoiding the deadwood in the race of which there looks to be a fair  bit. 

The Juddmonte breeding empire shows through in race  , they bred Finche, Midterm and Withhold , and bred Raise the Flag who is sire of Yogi and Chequered Flag.

If Rostrapovich and Idaho accept for their races Saturday, both won on same day at Chester in May, Chester and The Valley , left hand , approximately same circumferences  9 furlongs , so horses for courses ? 

What do you or others think no penalty Best Solution,  I cannot work it out , it basically wins what should be the  best lead up  from outside gate gets nothing , Yucatan wins decent race but no more than decent in style though cops 2.5kgs .

 

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<What do you or others think no penalty Best Solution,  I cannot work it out , it basically wins what should be the  best lead up  from outside gate gets nothing , Yucatan wins decent race but no more than decent in style though cops 2.5kgs .> I think that question answers itself - the handicapper knows his stuff. He obviously thinks BS is at the right weight in what will be a strong staying field. 

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18 minutes ago, Trump said:

<What do you or others think no penalty Best Solution,  I cannot work it out , it basically wins what should be the  best lead up  from outside gate gets nothing , Yucatan wins decent race but no more than decent in style though cops 2.5kgs .> I think that question answers itself - the handicapper knows his stuff. He obviously thinks BS is at the right weight in what will be a strong staying field. 

I suppose iam  falling into trap of thinking  set penalties as scheduled in rules prior to re handicapping for run of  mill  day to day handicaps for horses running out noms as opposed to what this is really a  re adjustment for letting in light.  As for handicapper knows his stuff , that's got to be one tough job but Chris Roots from SMH questions his wisdom today for letting Euros in light . I think he has the luxury of hindsight , Best Solution 11 pounds off likes Crystal Ocean up there so 57.5 seems fair enough weight. 

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11 hours ago, Red Rum said:

I suppose iam  falling into trap of thinking  set penalties as scheduled in rules prior to re handicapping for run of  mill  day to day handicaps for horses running out noms as opposed to what this is really a  re adjustment for letting in light.  As for handicapper knows his stuff , that's got to be one tough job but Chris Roots from SMH questions his wisdom today for letting Euros in light . I think he has the luxury of hindsight , Best Solution 11 pounds off likes Crystal Ocean up there so 57.5 seems fair enough weight. 

Carpenter was obviously impressed with the way Yucatan won, being eased up, and deserved a penalty on that.  He also clearly feels Best Solution is weighted to his max for a much stronger race and any additional penalty would pretty much end his chances.

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20 minutes ago, Ohokaman said:

Carpenter was obviously impressed with the way Yucatan won, being eased up, and deserved a penalty on that.  He also clearly feels Best Solution is weighted to his max for a much stronger race and any additional penalty would pretty much end his chances.

Not an approach that is followed in NZ of course, just ask the connections of Patrick Erin.

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13 hours ago, Red Rum said:

Just talking about that race with a mate. Withhold must be near modern day record , won last two races beating a total of 52 rivals in total in two races. Both those races hard to win traditional years old handicaps but over 2 miles and further so that is a query Wednesday.Cesarewitch a hard out gut buster up that Newmarket straight. He will get full bore Wednesday if needs be to win   because if they decide to run its to get the penalty, they don't want to run one bit but hand being forced  .He's clearly a horse that wants little racing .Finche to me got bit more class about him and form behind Cracksman in Prix Niel last year albeit at a  distance ,  but  lot further behind him in Ganay this year . Was only a length behind Avilius in Prix Neil though and Avilius would be odds on if in Wednesday race so the 4.80 Finche  and almost evens the place appeals to my ew reserve the bank value  tactics. Both drawn well, Withhold should go forward avoiding the deadwood in the race of which there looks to be a fair  bit. 

The Juddmonte breeding empire shows through in race  , they bred Finche, Midterm and Withhold , and bred Raise the Flag who is sire of Yogi and Chequered Flag.

If Rostrapovich and Idaho accept for their races Saturday, both won on same day at Chester in May, Chester and The Valley , left hand , approximately same circumferences  9 furlongs , so horses for courses ? 

What do you or others think no penalty Best Solution,  I cannot work it out , it basically wins what should be the  best lead up  from outside gate gets nothing , Yucatan wins decent race but no more than decent in style though cops 2.5kgs .

 

Wall of Fire and Yogi the other chances...the wet track will bring them into it...?

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1 hour ago, Ohokaman said:

Wall of Fire and Yogi the other chances...the wet track will bring them into it...?

Was at Riccarton day Yogi won its maiden , circled the field and caned them. Lost race on failed test after but has done alright in Aussie. Will need luck from 13 though. Wall of Fire another ex Hugo Palmer horse from Newmarket I think. Read other day Best of Days was also with Palmer last year stablemates with  Mask of Time, both end up Aussie for new connections and dead heat .Wall of Fire does look to be building and think you might have found the value ew bet in the race right there , worth risking few bucks even with draw at those odds  OM. Might have bit on that and Finche .

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22 minutes ago, Ohokaman said:

I see Aidan O'Brien has four sprinters entered in the Manikato on Friday night....must be a record.

Apart from US Navy Flag, know nothing about the others. You any wiser RR ?

Not too much OM ,  bit below best up there ,likes of  Harry Angel, Sands of Mali , Bataash and of course US Navy Flag,  which in normal years means bit bit more plus below Aussie in that area.They been running around the Group 2s 3s Curragh I think which  are regularly targeted by some of the Northern English yards with their better handicap sprinters.

Was surprised to see that type horse flown out in view of depth in Aussie sprinters, maybe Ballydoyle spotted  weakness in some races  , they obviously looking a stud deals all the time so that's an  angle and a win down here would look good up there. I was surprised how well Spirit of Valour ran other week. All three  USA bred by War Front who from the   bit of breeding I read about they are using to widen gene pool from Galileo. Spirit of Valour went for fair few coins as a foal.Jungle Cat done business other week  so who knows now , sprints can be won by international.

US Navy Flag level above them imho.

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