Caulfield Cup

[Red Rum 1,833]

11 minutes ago, Ohokaman said:

BS beat Muntahaa a few starts back..surely that puts him right in this ? Weight the only problem perhaps compared to others.

Are you  concerned by draw ? I  think with me  it may be that German win when they scrapped the paint the outside rail the trip, kind of suspect race . But he won it , beating Defoe who is not too bad a horse and thought worthy of Arc run other week ,  just cannot put me finger why I don't fancy it .Jockey 1 from 1 Caulfield rides though OM.

[Ohokaman 5,839]

J Mac makes a big call about Yucatan....

https://www.racenet.com.au/news/james-mcdonald-makes-big-statement-about-2018-melbourne-cup-favourite-20181017

[Red Rum 1,833]

2 hours ago, Ohokaman said:

J Mac makes a big call about Yucatan....

https://www.racenet.com.au/news/james-mcdonald-makes-big-statement-about-2018-melbourne-cup-favourite-20181017

The exuberance of youth, he's riding well , he's class but might want to just take a little out of Ryan Moores book and keep a bit to himself. Mind you Moore maybe too much like  Lester Piggott but Lester has a cutting wit at times , Moore dour but does it everywhere straight off the plane.Don't want to knock J Mac because he's got it all before him if he plays it right the world's his lobster as Del Boy would say.

Yucatan mind blowing but seen it before , one bird don't make a summer. Henry Cecil had horse who overtook the cars driving past the gallops at Newmarket according to seasoned work watchers , called Killer Instinct, he was the ultimate talking horse , thats where he's ability stayed on the Limekilns. Yucatan got a lot of form to turn around on UK and Irish form against some of these internationals , Muntahaa trained by what must be second best trainer in world John Gosden is one of them. ( after Aidan who's the best according to J Macc).

[Ohokaman 5,839]

12 minutes ago, Red Rum said:

The exuberance of youth, he's riding well , he's class but might want to just take a little out of Ryan Moores book and keep a bit to himself. Mind you Moore maybe too much like  Lester Piggott but Lester has a cutting wit at times , Moore dour but does it everywhere straight off the plane.Don't want to knock J Mac because he's got it all before him if he plays it right the world's his lobster as Del Boy would say.

Yucatan mind blowing but seen it before , one bird don't make a summer. Henry Cecil had horse who overtook the cars driving past the gallops at Newmarket according to seasoned work watchers , called Killer Instinct, he was the ultimate talking horse , thats where he's ability stayed on the Limekilns. Yucatan got a lot of form to turn around on UK and Irish form against some of these internationals , Muntahaa trained by what must be second best trainer in world John Gosden is one of them. ( after Aidan who's the best according to J Macc).

The improvement shown by Yucatan in Australia ...wins Herbert Power eased down in 2.26.4. Previously ran 3 out of 4 at Leopardstown running 2.37..!   Best Solution has won 5 at 2400 but the draw is a problem. Beat Sound Check last start at same weights. Beat Mirage Dancer too who then beat your hope Red Verdon....just gets murkier the more you look at it....!

I would be happier with a better draw but he has class so could still win. Will stick with the top two for the moment.

Depends how those light weights Kings Will Dream, Youngstar go...

[scooby3051 10,906]

Tough race Youngstar the best of the locals in my mind.

[Ohokaman 5,839]

BEST SOLUTION (Saeed Bin Suroor/Pat Cosgrave) The first of the foreign runners has won four of his six starts this season with the Caulfield Stakes winning trainer/jockey combination Saeed Bin Suroor and Pat Cosgrave. His past three starts have returned victories in the Group II Princess Of Wales Stakes (2414m) at Newmarket, Group I Grosser Preis Von Berlin (2414m) at Hoppegarten and the Group I Preis Von Baden (2000m) at Baden-Baden in Germany last month. A proven weight-carrier in good form and Bin Suroor won the Caulfield Cup in 2008 with All The Good. WINNING CHANCE - 8%, ODDS - $17

THE CLIFFSOFMOHER (Aidan O'Brien/Hugh Bowman) Lightly-raced international under the care of Irish master trainer Aidan O’Brien and ridden by Australia’s world champion big race rider. The Cliffsofmoher had six European starts this season prior to travelling to Australia, winning one at Group II level and finishing around the mark in high class Group I weight-for-age races, the Prince Of Wales Stakes and Eclipse Stakes. The son of Galileo made a strong impression in his Australian debut last Saturday reeling off the fastest last 600, 400 and 200m splits in the Caulfield Stakes, the Caulfield Cup lead-up race which has produced eight of the past 30 winners. Most importantly, The Cliffsofmoher performed well off a quick back-up during the Royal Ascot carnival in June. WINNING CHANCE - 15%, ODDS - $7

CHESTNUT COAT (Yoshito Yahagi/Yuga Kawada) The first of the Japanese raiders has had five starts this year for a return of two all-weather track wins, a second placing in the Group II Nikkei Sho (2500m) and a fifth in the Group I Tenno Sho Spring (3200m) two starts back behind Rainbow Line and Japan Cup winner Cheval Grand. Japanese gallopers are widely regarded as the some of the classiest and toughest horses on the planet and Admire Rakti gave the Asian nation its first Caulfield Cup win in 2014. Looks best suited in the Melbourne Cup next but rule him out at your peril. WINNING CHANCE - 6%, ODDS - $18

JON SNOW (Murray Baker & Andrew Forsman/Damian Lane) As a three-year-old he won the Australian Derby and finished third in the New Zealand Derby. Ran ninth in the Caulfield Cup and then was found to be suffering a leg injury in the lead-up to the Melbourne Cup and spent 11 months on the sidelines. Returned with an encouraging fourth in the Group I Tarzino Trophy (1400m) at Hastings in September before crossing the ditch and was third in the Group I Makybe Diva Stakes (1600m) then raced like he was looking for 2400m when fourth in the Group I Turnbull Stakes behind Winx. This trip is more to his liking and the Turnbull Stakes has been the winning lead-up race for the Caulfield Cup winner in five of the past nine years. WINNING CHANCE - 1%, ODDS - $41

SOUND CHECK (Michael Moroney/Jordan Childs) Here’s a foreigner that’s been purchased by Australian and New Zealand interests for the Cups and will have his first start on Saturday under the care of Flemington-based trainer Mike Moroney. This former German galloper has an impressive winning strike rate of seven wins from 16 starts and in his last European outing he was beaten a short neck under weight-for-age conditions by Best Solution in the Group I Grosser Preis Von Berlin (2414m) at Hoppegarten. Gets 2kg off that galloper here so if you like Best Solution, you have to give Sound Check a chance but his best form does indicate the Melbourne Cup is his better target. WINNING CHANCE – 6%, ODDS - $23

ACE HIGH (David Payne/Damien Oliver) He’s arguably the best-credentialled local Derby winner to contest the Caulfield Cup for quite a few years. During his three-year-old season he won the Victoria Derby and trained on in the autumn to go down in an agonising photo finish for his connections in the Australian Derby. Back as a four-year-old, he was good when second to Unforgotten in the Group II Chelmsford Stakes and last start was a dominant winner of the Group II Hill Stakes when stepping up to 2000m. He’s a tough on-pace staying type that loves a fight and 2400m suits. He deserves to be respected. WINNING CHANCE - 8%, ODDS - $11

THE TAJ MAHAL (Liam Howley/James McDonald) He arrived in Australia in the spring last year and won the Sandown Classic. He didn’t fire in his sole autumn run in the Group I Australian Cup then failed to create an impression in his first two runs of the current campaign before turning his form around in the Group III JRA Cup (2040m) three weeks ago at Moonee Valley, scrambling home in a quality handicap. Since 1988, the JRA Cup hasn’t produced a Caulfield Cup winner and I’m happy to say that won’t be the case again in 2018. WINNING CHANCE - 1%, ODDS - $18

DURETTO (Andrew Balding/Dwayne Dunn) Going through his European form, it would indicate his best chance of going home with a Cup will come at Flemington on the first Tuesday in November. In saying that he was only beaten three-quarters of a length by Best Solution two starts back in the Group II Princess Of Wales Stakes (2414m) at Newmarket at weight-for-age and meets that galloper 3kg better at the weights this time. This is a seven-year-old that has staying form behind some of Europe’s best and if this developed into a brutal race, he’s the sort that would relish it. WINNING CHANCE - 3%, ODDS - $23

RED VERDON (Ed Dunlop/Zac Purton) This is an interesting international runner. His trainer Ed Dunlop has had success in Australia via the deeds of the popular Red Cadeaux in recent years and he’ll be ridden by Australia’s champion Hong Kong-based jockey Zac Purton who won the race four years ago aboard Admire Rakti. Red Verdon races in the colours made famous in Australia by Red Cadeaux and comes here with 2400m form, including second placings in recent starts in the Group II Hardwick Stakes and Group II Glorious Stakes. In the Hardwick he beat home The Cliffsofmoher carrying the same weight of 57.5kg and this time he’s 2.5kg better off against that horse so if you like The Cliffsofmoher, you should respect Red Vernon. WINNING CHANCE - 9%, ODDS - $21

VENGEUR MASQUE (Michael Moroney/Patrick Moloney) Victories in average editions of the Group III Geelong Cup and VRC Queen Elizabeth Stakes are how he’s found his way into the race but his form this season doesn’t inspire confidence about his chances. His best effort this prep came first-up when behind the placegetters in the Listed Heatherlie Handicap (1700m) but his two subsequent runs have seen him finish 10th in the Group III Naturalism Stakes and beaten more than five lengths by Avilius in the Bart Cummings. He does have a good 2400m record but at this level I expect him to struggle. WINNING CHANCE - 0%, ODDS - $101

VENTURA STORM (David & B Hayes & T Dabernig/Regan Bayliss) He was right in the market when finished midfield in the Caulfield Cup last year off a second behind Winx in the Turnbull Stakes. This year he’s again performed well in the Turnbull, fourth in the race and only beaten 1-3/4 lengths by Winx, an improvement of 4-3/4 lengths compared with 2017 but that doesn’t tell the full story, obviously. He tends to mix his form and the formguide indicates he isn’t too fussed on racing at Caulfield with his best result being a two-length defeat in the Listed Heatherlie Handicap three runs ago and you know what I think of the chances of Vengeur Masque, which beat him home in that. Making up the numbers. WINNING CHANCE - 0%, ODDS - $34

MIGHTY BOSS (Mick Price/Tim Clark) What relevance does a Caulfield Guineas win at 1600m have for a Caulfield Cup? Obviously, the Racing Victoria handicapper gives it more importance than I think it deserves or this Mick Price-trained horse wouldn’t be in the race. He’s won a Sale 2YO maiden and last year’s Caulfield Guineas at $101. Since then he hasn’t finished better than sixth in seven starts and his best effort was a 2-1/4 length defeat in the Group III Naturalism Stakes. The best thing going for him here is he comes out of the best form race in recent years – the Turnbull Stakes. His form says he’s making up the numbers but he has got history of causing a shock result. WINNING CHANCE - 1%, ODDS - $101

HOMESMAN (Liam Howley/Ben Melham) Another of the Lloyd Williams army. I think it’s fair to question his credentials at 2400m coming into this. When trained in Europe his best form was at 1600 to 2000m and his last two starts indicate that’s still the case. Won the Group I Underwood Stakes two runs ago but if it was another stride he runs second then last Saturday in the Caulfield Stakes, he led up but it was all too much late, weakening out of the race, only beating four runners home. Better suited under handicap conditions but expecting the 2400m to find him out. WINNING CHANCE - 2%, ODDS - $13

KINGS WILL DREAM (Darren Weir/Craig Williams) This is one of the best Australian-trained chances in the race. He booked his place in the field in March when thumping the field in the Mornington Cup, a race that carried Caulfield Cup ballot exemption. Since returning this preparation he’s only enhanced his Caulfield Cup prospects with fast-finishing fourth, third and second placings in the Group II PB Lawrence Stakes (1400m), Group I Memsie Stakes (1400m) and Group I Makybe Diva Stakes (1600m). Last time out he was again far from disgraced, ridden closer to the speed before finishing fourth in the Group I Turnbull Stakes (2000m). Been set for this all campaign, has form in the right races, no weight and a top trainer and jockey combination – there’s a lot to like about him. WINNING CHANCE - 11%, ODDS - $5.50

SOLE IMPACT (Hirofumi Toda/Ryusei Sakai (a)) The second of the Japanese raiders, he returned his only placing in five starts this year when third behind 2015 Melbourne Cup favourite and top stayer Fame Game in the Group III Diamond Stakes (3400m). He was fifth in his last outing, beaten 1-1/2 lengths in the Group II Meguro Kinen (2500m). He’s only won four of 37 starts but his record indicates he’s most effective at this trip where his five starts have yielded a win and three placings. The jockey choice is an interesting one. Ryusei Sakai is a Japanese apprentice that’s been plying his trade in South Australia for much of this year. This season he’s ridden four winners from 78 rides – that doesn’t have the feel of a ‘Caulfield Cup-winning jockey’. WINNING CHANCE - 2%, ODDS - $51

GALLIC CHIEFTAIN (Darren Weir/Dean Yendall) The last horse into the field but not the worst on form and he is trained by Darren Weir. Kicked off his campaign this spring finishing down the track with a big weight in a 1600m handicap before making good improvement second-up, finishing a close second behind The Taj Mahal in the Group III JRA Cup (2040m) at Moonee Valley. Last Saturday he ground home to grab a well-beaten fourth in the Group II Herbert Power Stakes behind the controversial Caulfield Cup non-acceptor Yucatan. Drops 3.5kg into this and has good 2400m figures but place prospects appear the brightest. WINNING CHANCE - 1%, ODDS - $67

NIGHT'S WATCH (Darren Weir/Ben Allen (a)) Another member of Darren Weir’s team that booked his place in the race when winning a Caulfield Cup ballot exemption race – the Group III Naturalism Stakes. This five-year-old former Kiwi is one of the leading Australian-trained hopes in the race, working his way impressively through the grades this preparation. Wasn’t suited under the weight-for-age conditions last Saturday but ran well for sixth in the Caulfield Stakes and he’s much better suited at the weights here, dropping to 52kg meeting a horse like The Cliffsofmoher 4.5kg better. It won’t be a shock if this son of Redwood is in the finish. WINNING CHANCE - 6%, ODDS - $15

YOUNGSTAR (Chris Waller/Kerrin McEvoy) This is the horse the bookies think is the hardest to beat. The Queensland Oaks winner from last season made her Caulfield Cup statement when charging home to beat all but Winx in the Turnbull Stakes (2000m) in her last start. Trained by Australia’s master big race trainer Chris Waller and ridden by proven big race jockey Kerrin McEvoy. This whole campaign has been about the Caulfield Cup and she’s had a faultless build-up, improving with every run and she’s going to be better suited at 2400m. This is a live chance that will be hard to beat with even luck. WINNING CHANCE - 16%, ODDS - $6

PATRICK ERIN (Chris Waller/Corey Brown) Former Kiwi stayer that showed what he is capable of when winning the Group I The Metropolitan at Randwick last start. It’s fair to say, like the other emergency, he’s more worthy of a place in the race than some of the other Australian runners but they’ve had 12 months to get him there but came up just short at the weights. If he gets a run, he will love the trip, he’s in form but it’s fair to question if he had the class to win a Caulfield Cup. Not without a place chance though. WINNING CHANCE - 1%, ODDS - $51

JAAMEH (David & B Hayes & T Dabernig/Cory Parish) This import has the Caulfield Cup-winning trainer/jockey combination from last year on his side. His form reads OK too, now he just needs a couple of scratchings to get a run. If he does, you could do sillier things with your money. He’s won three of his six Australian starts and last time out he made the highly-regarded Avilius earn it in the Bart Cummings. Avilius was the Caulfield Cup favourite until he won that race and the stable announced they’d bypass the Caulfield Cup. Jaameh drops to 50kg if he gets a run and he’ll have a lightweight chance. WINNING CHANCE - 3%, ODDS - $34

ANALYSIS: Gun mare YOUNGSTAR has a great chance of giving Chris Waller his first success in the Caulfield Cup on Saturday. From a form perspective she ticks all the right boxes and has a luxury weight. THE CLIFFSOFMOHER made a strong impression on Aussie punters when getting home strongly late in last week’s Caulfield Stakes. If he can handle the seven-day back-up, he has genuine winning claims. KINGS WILL DREAM, like Youngstar, has had the perfect build-up for this, running well in all the right form races. RED VERDON is a good value chance. He has similar European form credentials to The Cliffsofmoher with a trainer and jockey proven on Australia’s biggest racing stages.

[Red Rum 1,833]

It's going to be four cracking weeks OM , I like the Sandown finish to carnival as well, good variety of races that meeting. The only thing with the write up its gives one of my  two ew picks in VS a  0 per cent chance, that's harsh but Mighty Boss 1 per cent. MB wins iam spelling on the punt till end year. It's no chance , lovely looking horse , turned the heads around the pre parade ring at Turnball other week especially the kids , but Usain Bolts got more chance getting a contract from Jose playing up front for rabble in red at next transfer window than that horse winning Saturday.

[Ohokaman 5,839]

30 minutes ago, Red Rum said:

It's going to be four cracking weeks OM , I like the Sandown finish to carnival as well, good variety of races that meeting. The only thing with the write up its gives one of my  two ew picks in VS a  0 per cent chance, that's harsh but Mighty Boss 1 per cent. MB wins iam spelling on the punt till end year. It's no chance , lovely looking horse , turned the heads around the pre parade ring at Turnball other week especially the kids , but Usain Bolts got more chance getting a contract from Jose playing up front for rabble in red at next transfer window than that horse winning Saturday.

Agree RR. Not sure why he's there. Done nothing since that shock Guineas win. Good point made about those dropping from WFA last week, particularly Weir's pair Night's Watch and Gallic Chieftain who ran well behind Yucatan.

I'm warming to Red.....how do you rate Duretto meeting BS 3kg better off....??

[Red Rum 1,833]

18 minutes ago, Ohokaman said:

Agree RR. Not sure why he's there. Done nothing since that shock Guineas win. Good point made about those dropping from WFA last week, particularly Weir's pair Night's Watch and Gallic Chieftain who ran well behind Yucatan.

I'm warming to Red.....how do you rate Duretto meeting BS 3kg better off....??

Duretto, I liked Count Octave as the better of two Andrew Balding  brought out, I know Count Octave out and went under Waller name . He looks like heading back to UK. Looking at form he looks more Cup horse, but good form around turning Chester so first tight bend no issues, if he comes out fast sits on rails couple back maybe and gets gap on rails he won't be stopping, just wonder if he will quicken enough. I'd be worried he gets swamped from those outside getting in for turn and shuffled way back, too far back. Ian Balding still very much involved in that stable to some extent reading differing reports over years and Andrew Balding has travelled  horses to great effect. Andrew Balding had few big wins in Canada over years and that Mackinnon win with Side Glance so knows the time of day. Always liked backing Ian Balding runners  ,they always  had  a sheepskin noseband so easy to spot.

[Ohokaman 5,839]

1 hour ago, Red Rum said:

It's going to be four cracking weeks OM , I like the Sandown finish to carnival as well, good variety of races that meeting. The only thing with the write up its gives one of my  two ew picks in VS a  0 per cent chance, that's harsh but Mighty Boss 1 per cent. MB wins iam spelling on the punt till end year. It's no chance , lovely looking horse , turned the heads around the pre parade ring at Turnball other week especially the kids , but Usain Bolts got more chance getting a contract from Jose playing up front for rabble in red at next transfer window than that horse winning Saturday.

I read David Hayes comments on VS...trained it differently this year and has had an operation in between. Stable has to be respected in these big races...remember Boom Time last year.....

[Pegasus 9 524]

4 hours ago, Red Rum said:

The exuberance of youth, he's riding well , he's class but might want to just take a little out of Ryan Moores book and keep a bit to himself. Mind you Moore maybe too much like  Lester Piggott but Lester has a cutting wit at times , Moore dour but does it everywhere straight off the plane.Don't want to knock J Mac because he's got it all before him if he plays it right the world's his lobster as Del Boy would say.

Yucatan mind blowing but seen it before , one bird don't make a summer. Henry Cecil had horse who overtook the cars driving past the gallops at Newmarket according to seasoned work watchers , called Killer Instinct, he was the ultimate talking horse , thats where he's ability stayed on the Limekilns. Yucatan got a lot of form to turn around on UK and Irish form against some of these internationals , Muntahaa trained by what must be second best trainer in world John Gosden is one of them. ( after Aidan who's the best according to J Macc).

Agree about J Mac and sometimes less is more.  His manager should advise him to say less. Hopefully he will learn as there are so many ready to take aim at any person who is successful. Especially a good Kiwi boy on top in Australia. 

[scooby3051 10,906]

What a horse this guy was......

 

[Red Rum 1,833]

Looking back on past Caulfield Cups as Scooby's previous post. Had a look it's 20 years since Taufans Melody and Ray Cochrane got out of town after a stewards enquiry with the Cup. From memory when it was replayed later in day on Channel Four racing in UK the  concensus was he was slightly lucky to keep it.His trainer Lady Herries  also trained Celtic Swing who was a top class horse , think family owned John Dunlop's   stable in Arundel,  Sussex so  connected in some respect to tomorrow's race via Red Verdon and Ed Dunlop.

Moving on after Cup  Taufans Melody ran forth in Melb Cup that year, had year off then ran 6 more times in UK, faced 40 odd opponents in those races and beat only five in total. 

Ray Cochrane on the other hand received a Queens Gallantry medal for saving Frankie Dettori's life after a light plan crash.

Ray Cochrane was a real good jockey. He might still be Dettori's agent , he was at one time.

[Blind Squirrel 315]

Having not done any homework on the internationals my genuine questions is where will the speed come from in the race?

A large number of Caulfield Cups have been sit sprint affairs in recent years with the off and on tempo finding out most of the genuine stayers in the race - great to be charging home with a Melbourne Cup trial in mind but that doesn't pay the bills for next week for most punters.

Any ideas about potential leaders - I did expect Homesman to be handy throughout and even Jon Snow if he can get across them early but neither are true leaders. Maybe one of the Japanese runners?

Thoughts appreciated.

 

 

[Red Rum 1,833]

20 minutes ago, Blind Squirrel said:

Having not done any homework on the internationals my genuine questions is where will the speed come from in the race?

A large number of Caulfield Cups have been sit sprint affairs in recent years with the off and on tempo finding out most of the genuine stayers in the race - great to be charging home with a Melbourne Cup trial in mind but that doesn't pay the bills for next week for most punters.

Any ideas about potential leaders - I did expect Homesman to be handy throughout and even Jon Snow if he can get across them early but neither are true leaders. Maybe one of the Japanese runners?

Thoughts appreciated.

 

 

Just had a watch of Tenno Sho (spring) and Meguro Kinen, both Sole Impact and Chestnut Coat in same colours , Sole Impact the grey. Both reasonably slow races for Japan and both quite happy to sit midfield / rear. They swapped finishes positions head to head wise both races.

I would have thought it's in Durettos's interest to go forward from 1 and it stays but does not seem to have led in UK but happy to be forward it seems.

I suppose Team Williams sometimes send one out to more or less set pace, I know it's not allowed but Grandduketuscany done that few times for them and that Harrison burnt out other week, I suppose they would have signal anything like that to stewards, and not sure any of theirs bar maybe COM would want a gut busting staying test. So in short BS I for one have no idea as to answer to your question, be interesting to see others thoughts on it for sure.

Also , Rostrapovich another from Ballydoyle looking very good at Werribee according to RP report from yard. Might run in plate next week, they have an embarrassment of riches, if they win one of the big three again this year  forget it its all over they will swamp it next year  and forever more.

[Ohokaman 5,839]

26 minutes ago, Blind Squirrel said:

Having not done any homework on the internationals my genuine questions is where will the speed come from in the race?

A large number of Caulfield Cups have been sit sprint affairs in recent years with the off and on tempo finding out most of the genuine stayers in the race - great to be charging home with a Melbourne Cup trial in mind but that doesn't pay the bills for next week for most punters.

Any ideas about potential leaders - I did expect Homesman to be handy throughout and even Jon Snow if he can get across them early but neither are true leaders. Maybe one of the Japanese runners?

Thoughts appreciated.

 

 

Hard to know BS. Homesman should lead from that gate and I would have expected the other Williams runner Taj Mahal to be up there too, but he will have to do some work from out wide to get there. Difficult to know what the Euros or Jap horses might do without knowing their normal racing pattern but Sole Impact has a young Japanese apprentice riding it and if it took off anything could happen..! The Euros are used to running in big fields in bunches and don't seem to take up particular positions but RR will know better than me.

So just go with what you fancy......

[Trump 2,741]

The 2400m start at Caulfield with a capacity field is no place for jockeys who have little experience at it. Chances can be rooted entering the first turn, getting interfered with, buffeted, knocked, squeezed etc. it’s the most high pressure staying race. The jockey can make “so” much difference. The two best Melb jockeys are Damien Lane and Damien Oliver. If their mounts are good enough on the day, you can bet they will be given every chance. But in a race like this year’s CC, there are no rules, no pre-race plans and lots of pressure. It’s going to be a beauty. If something wins it with a come from behind sprint from the turn, I’m picking light weights Youngstar and Nights Watch. If it’s won from near the leaders then Cliffs of Moher and Homesman will be hard to run down. Good luck - you’ll need it in this race fore sure!!

[Red Rum 1,833]

39 minutes ago, Ohokaman said:

Hard to know BS. Homesman should lead from that gate and I would have expected the other Williams runner Taj Mahal to be up there too, but he will have to do some work from out wide to get there. Difficult to know what the Euros or Jap horses might do without knowing their normal racing pattern but Sole Impact has a young Japanese apprentice riding it and if it took off anything could happen..! The Euros are used to running in big fields in bunches and don't seem to take up particular positions but RR will know better than me.

So just go with what you 

Think  Dueretto the only  international who would lead imho OM. BS would have to burn some juice to lead  drawn in the Stella Artois corporate tent , Red Verdon looks like sort horse 50 metres from post is as early as you want his head in front , COM don't look  like a pacesetter imho.

Reading about Rostrapovich this morning I thought maybe Willie Mullins rumbled it early and saw writing on wall with Ballydoyle. He had Thomas Hobson, Max Dynamite and Stratum in good form, he's won some big races with stayers up there past 6 or so weeks but took them all out of the trip down under. Thomas Hobson in  at Ascot Saturday so not injured and owner loaded so money no object.Almost chip away up North while some good ones away , mind you Flag of Honour running overnight  Saturday at Ascot in Long Distance cup and he's very good so  Ballydoyle still got a bit left up there, and got Stradivarius to content with.

 

[Blind Squirrel 315]

I can see there being some serious argy bargy over the first 400-600m, especially on the first bend. It may be a bonus to be drawn a little wide as those on the fence that want to take a sit could end up getting smashed back by the chargers from out wide that want to find a possy then ease off.

I guess the good thing is that if it was in NZ the riding standard would definitely see someone go over the fence or get decked given our jockeys propensity for pulling up in front!!

Of the Aus chances you have to rate Ace High as he can run on speed and has a good draw - Youngstar and Kings of Dream (is he really an Aussie) also drawn well and must be contenders from a local point of view.

I am a little cautious on any of the raiders backing up from last week as that track was very firm late in the day and if it is the same tomorrow it will be a tough ask for any horse to cop two weeks in a row on hard track.

Finding it had to narrow it down but a decent place bet on Ace High might be my go  at this stage.

Will make a good leg of the quaddie as well as believe you can go short in the other 3 legs - give Charles Road a decent show in the first leg and happy to see Peaceful State bounce back in the last (especially as you have to have most Weir runners in combos) 

 

[Ohokaman 5,839]

20 minutes ago, Blind Squirrel said:

I can see there being some serious argy bargy over the first 400-600m, especially on the first bend. It may be a bonus to be drawn a little wide as those on the fence that want to take a sit could end up getting smashed back by the chargers from out wide that want to find a possy then ease off.

I guess the good thing is that if it was in NZ the riding standard would definitely see someone go over the fence or get decked given our jockeys propensity for pulling up in front!!

Of the Aus chances you have to rate Ace High as he can run on speed and has a good draw - Youngstar and Kings of Dream (is he really an Aussie) also drawn well and must be contenders from a local point of view.

I am a little cautious on any of the raiders backing up from last week as that track was very firm late in the day and if it is the same tomorrow it will be a tough ask for any horse to cop two weeks in a row on hard track.

Finding it had to narrow it down but a decent place bet on Ace High might be my go  at this stage.

Will make a good leg of the quaddie as well as believe you can go short in the other 3 legs - give Charles Road a decent show in the first leg and happy to see Peaceful State bounce back in the last (especially as you have to have most Weir runners in combos) 

 

Will be a good quaddie if you can get it BS. Like Best of Days with JMac riding, you will want a few in the Cup, mares race open but Invincabella, Invincible Gem and Ellicazoom likely, and throw in Mr Sneaky in the last.....

[scooby3051 10,906]

Warming to COM and Youngstar.... like KWD but hate his jockey every 2nd ride gets slaughtered...JMO..Red Verdon will also be in the finish I believe.... anyway bloody tough race tough racing all day but sure will be a great days racing.

[Red Rum 1,833]

2 hours ago, Ohokaman said:

Will be a good quaddie if you can get it BS. Like Best of Days with JMac riding, you will want a few in the Cup, mares race open but Invincabella, Invincible Gem and Ellicazoom likely, and throw in Mr Sneaky in the last.....

Mask of Time looks very generous  on fixed for each way roll dice  OM, 19s and 4s in same race Best of Days ,  minimum weight , right jockey on board and if he runs stable has picked this race out of three noms , was in at Moe yesterday and Cranbourne Sunday.Went well in Toorak for his  UK trainer last year.

[Ohokaman 5,839]

Nice work at Caulfield from Youngstar and Trumpys pick Finche...

 

[Ohokaman 5,839]

On 10/19/2018 at 2:17 PM, Red Rum said:

Mask of Time looks very generous  on fixed for each way roll dice  OM, 19s and 4s in same race Best of Days ,  minimum weight , right jockey on board and if he runs stable has picked this race out of three noms , was in at Moe yesterday and Cranbourne Sunday.Went well in Toorak for his  UK trainer last year.

Had a go at the Quaddie RR, though this rain has not helped any...

R1- 3,5,7   R2- 1,2,5,9,11,14,18   R3- 3,4,9     R4- 5 and 8.

 

[Nerula 1,402]

Its a 'stock car" horse race, My advice dont bet large!