RaceCafe..#1...Tipsters Thread.... Share Your Fancies For Fun...Lets See Who The Best Tipsters Here Are.
Pegasus 9

Caulfield Cup

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In what can only be described as farcical circumstances Saturday’s Caulfield Cup favourite Yucatan will not be a starter in the race even though there had been no official announcement late on Monday night.

Early on Monday it was announced by major owners Team Williams that Yucatan would be running with Michael Walker as the jockey and as a consequence the brilliant winner of last Saturday’s Herbert Power Stakes firmed to become outright favourite for the Cup.

Later in the morning Racing Victoria chief handicapper Greg Carpenter made his decision to allot the Aidan O'Brien-trained galloper a 2.5kg penalty for the Melbourne Cup, a race in which the five-year-old is now an $8.50 favourite.

With the announcement of a jockey confirmed and Yucatan running in the Caulfield Cup, by afternoon the had firmed the stallion into $4.50 favourite in all-in betting, with the corporates all betting a similar price.

Youngstar was second favourite at $5.50 with King’s Will Dream at $6.50 and Homesman, also majorly owned by Team Williams a $15 chance.

Some dramatic movement on the Betfair exchange caused alarm bells to ring when Yucatan started to quickly ease quickly from a trading price of $5.50 around midday to be trading at $75 early in the evening then later he was a $1000 chance.

Homesman had initially been traded at $72 in early Caulfield Cup markets and on Monday as much as $30 was available yet he’s now trading at a peak of $15 while into $11 with the TAB.

As for Michael Walker it’s a case of what might have been as he’s now left without a ride while the punters who dived into the all-in markets on Monday now don’t even have a runner and have done their money cold.

 

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How can anybody accuse Team Williams of f%#£ing the punters? Only moments after Yucatan had won on Sat, Nick Williams was interviewed and on national television, quite clearly said that “No decision would be made on a CC run until they saw what penalty the horse was given in the Melb Cup for today’s win. After that, we will discuss with Trainer Aiden O’Brien.”. From that, even a dumb mug punter could see it was not going to go to the CC “unless” there was a need to get a further penalty to get it up the MC order of entry. The horse was 100/1 for the CC before it’s Herbet Power won, so anyone who backed in the CC “since it’s Herbert Power win”, well frankly shouldn’t be betting! The Williams are always very open about the running of their horses, as they have quite clearly been with Yucatan, so I’m not sure what Newmarket is on about here.

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6 hours ago, Trump said:

How can anybody accuse Team Williams of f%#£ing the punters? Only moments after Yucatan had won on Sat, Nick Williams was interviewed and on national television, quite clearly said that “No decision would be made on a CC run until they saw what penalty the horse was given in the Melb Cup for today’s win. After that, we will discuss with Trainer Aiden O’Brien.”. From that, even a dumb mug punter could see it was not going to go to the CC “unless” there was a need to get a further penalty to get it up the MC order of entry. The horse was 100/1 for the CC before it’s Herbet Power won, so anyone who backed in the CC “since it’s Herbert Power win”, well frankly shouldn’t be betting! The Williams are always very open about the running of their horses, as they have quite clearly been with Yucatan, so I’m not sure what Newmarket is on about here.

Read the above post  from Racenet which Scoobie posted. Team Williams on Monday say it's running in CC and M Walker to ride. In all in market it's firmed but gets pulled from market that afternoon. 

Punters were on the end of a rogering. Bookies clean up

 If you think that's ok your right up there IMHO

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1 hour ago, Fartoomuch said:

Read the above post  from Racenet which Scoobie posted. Team Williams on Monday say it's running in CC and M Walker to ride. In all in market it's firmed but gets pulled from market that afternoon. 

Punters were on the end of a rogering. Bookies clean up

 If you think that's ok your right up there IMHO

I agree Fartoomuch , I'd be bit pissed off. Nick Williams pleaded for a decent penalty , then as you detail  above got jockey so must have been reasonably happy and Coolmore travelling man in Australia TJ Comerford must have given a bit of a heads up all go and he's a top operator . Then kaboom have 2.5kgs later in day, Team Williams got what they wanted re penalty plus a dollop on top  , I'd say it was crikey it wins CC and it was a chance it could have brained them Saturday in that form  it's looking at another 2 kgs and it's a big ask then in big one ,  it's pushing the real good uns  in weight. I think then the row for shore came along . He has 3 decent chances anyway, COM looked good  Saturday , Taj Mahal in form. I think they are straight up about the  joints slightly  sore as vets have scaned it so they not gonna bullshit on that but maybe then decided right we will defo err on safe side and also miss big penalty. Maybe might have been ready in few days but be real cautious and pull it out. But iam a long long way from a vet.

It's the roll of the dice tho ante post I suppose ,  Willie Mullins burnt a few people at Cheltenham other year, one was going Gold Cup, Vautour I think it was , lumps go on and next day nope it's going Champion Chase.Cheesed off an awful lot people off only few days out from race.

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57 minutes ago, Red Rum said:

I agree Fartoomuch , I'd be bit pissed off. Nick Williams pleaded for a decent penalty , then as you detail  above got jockey so must have been reasonably happy and Coolmore travelling man in Australia TJ Comerford must have given a bit of a heads up all go and he's a top operator . Then kaboom have 2.5kgs later in day, Team Williams got what they wanted re penalty plus a dollop on top  , I'd say it was crikey it wins CC and it was a chance it could have brained them Saturday in that form  it's looking at another 2 kgs and it's a big ask then in big one ,  it's pushing the real good uns  in weight. I think then the row for shore came along . He has 3 decent chances anyway, COM looked good  Saturday , Taj Mahal in form. I think they are straight up about the  joints slightly  sore as vets have scaned it so they not gonna bullshit on that but maybe then decided right we will defo err on safe side and also miss big penalty. Maybe might have been ready in few days but be real cautious and pull it out. But iam a long long way from a vet.

It's the roll of the dice tho ante post I suppose ,  Willie Mullins burnt a few people at Cheltenham other year, one was going Gold Cup, Vautour I think it was , lumps go on and next day nope it's going Champion Chase.Cheesed off an awful lot people off only few days out from race.

Im picking they have something else in mind for CC and might even do another Green Moon, use Cox plate as a conditioner for MC. What do you think Red Rum

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The latest from the big swinging dick himself-Lloyd

"In the wake of the Yucatan fiasco, leviathan owner Lloyd Williams has labelled punters who bet all-in into the Caulfield and Melbourne Cups as “stupid”.

Early on Monday it was announced that Yucatan would be running in the Caulfield Cup with Michael Walker booked to ride the horse and as a consequence the brilliant winner of last Saturday’s Herbert Power Stakes firmed to become outright favourite.

Bookies firmed the Aidan O'Brien galloper into $4.50 favourite in all-in betting, but it was revealed on Monday night Yucatan would not be a starter despite there being no official announcement.

This is the message that the wealthy Williams, the six-time Melbourne Cup winning owner, had on Tuesday for punters who had done their money backing Yucatan all-in.

“I feel sorry for them, I hope they get their money back. But if they were betting all-in they were probably stupid in Cups,” Williams said on RSN.

“I don’t encourage anyone to be betting at those all-in prices in those Cups.

“There is so many changes in a Melbourne Cup or a Caulfield Cup over a period of time.

“Betting on the futures … on these bookmaker sites… if they (punters) were seeking my advice I would be telling them not to take the futures, wait until they see the horse accept and the jockey is on him.”

Later on Tuesday, James McDonald was confirmed as Yucatan's rider in the Melbourne Cup where he is the $8.50 favourite with Ladbrokes.

Walker was doing his best to be diplomatic when asked about Williams’ change of heart for the Caulfield Cup, saying he would have to cop it sweet and watch from the grandstands while the Caulfield Cup is run on Saturday.

Yucatan’s withdrawal from the Caulfield Cup came only hours after he was handed a 2.5kg penalty for the Melbourne Cup for his stunning victory in the Herbert Power Stakes.

Originally 55th in the Melbourne Cup order of entry with 52kg, Yucatan climbed to No. 24 after Racing Victoria’s Greg Carpenter’s deemed the Irish star’s Herbert Power Stakes romp deserved a significant adjustment.

However, Williams claimed that had little bearing on his decision to take the galloper out of the Caulfield Cup.

“Not really no, we expected he was going to get 2 or 2.5 kg penalty anyway so that didn’t surprise us,” Williams said.

Williams claimed the reason for Yucatan not running in the Caulfield Cup was he hadn’t come through Saturday’s victory as the stable would have liked to back-up again seven days later.

“He hadn’t quite recovered from the race and had a little bit of fluid in his joints and it was thought running again within seven days was probably a bit too difficult for him,” Williams said.

“We thought we had better wait and go forward to the Melbourne Cup.”

 

I wonder if, in the course and pursuit of consistency that RVL vets are checking the horse for its recovery from the issues above. They do it on any whisper about other horses.

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37 minutes ago, JJ Flash said:

Im picking they have something else in mind for CC and might even do another Green Moon, use Cox plate as a conditioner for MC. What do you think Red Rum

Did read something like that , Cox Plate be interesting , also MV Cup was the other one . However they would be in penalty mode again, run in MV Cup be short odds fav , win it's penalty for 250k or around that, back of sofa stuff for TW so why do it, run something like the Belgravia or Venice Beach type horses he has.Run in Cox Plate , keeps it ticking over, places with his breeding it's worth shed loads more as it is  still entire,by  best sire in world out of top race mare from a Niarchos family , crazy I know but  not mind boggling crazy it snags a win and value goes through roof. Winx blocked he shoots clear again on bend, 200 odd metres to catch it when it ain't stopping ,  it's not madness but unlikely.Don't think Aidan O'Brien too worried straight into cup, he mostly runs his gun 2 yo into Newmarket Guineas first up for season but I suppose he hasn't got the expanse of Ballydoyle to use with Yucatan.

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Looks like Trumpys tip has gone west....

2018 Caulfield Cup field

2018 Caulfield Cup field
The Caulfield Cup. Photo: Darryl Sherer. 
Racenet Article Author

Racenet

16 October 2018

The field has been declared for the 141st edition of the $5 million Group I Caulfield Cup (2400m) to be run at Caulfield on Saturday.

A field of 18 plus two emergencies has been announced for one of Australia’s most prized handicaps.

The field consists of 14 Australasian-trained horse and six northern hemisphere raiders.

Only six of the acceptors were bred in Australia or New Zealand while the other 14 starters all originate from Japan, Europe or the US.

Caulfield Stakes-winning combination of trainer Saeed Bin Suroor and jockey Pat Cosgrave team up again on Saturday with the topweight Best Solution while the world’s best jockey Hugh Bowman will chase his first Caulfield Cup win aboard the Aidan O'Brien-trained The Cliffsofmoher.

Australasia’s highest weighted horse is the Murray Baker & Andrew Forsman-trained 2017 Australian Derby winner Jon Snow.

The favourite Youngstar will carry saddlecloth number 18 when she attempts to give trainer Chris Waller his first Caulfield Cup win while the Darren Weir trained Gallic Chieftain was the last horse to make the field of 18, leaving the Waller-trained The Metropolitan winner Patrick Erin as the first emergency.

Last year’s Caulfield Cup-winning jockey Cory Parish is booked for the second emergency, the Hayes/Dabernig-trained Jaameh.

The barrier draw for the Caulfield Cup will be conducted on Wednesday at 11am.

9422.png

1. Best Solution IRL 

Career: 21:8-2-3
L10: 1x3195x111
T: S Bin Suroor J: P Cosgrave
6290.png

2. The Cliffsofmoher IRL 

Career: 16:3-2-2
L10: 8x512433x4
T: A O'Brien J: H Bowman
NotAvailable.png

3. Chestnut Coat JPN 

Career: 17:4-5-1
L10: 15x211250x
T: Y Yahagi J: Y Kawada
74841.png

4. Jon Snow NZL 

Career: 20:4-1-6
L10: x68139x437
T: M Baker & A Forsman J: D Lane
7737.png

5. Sound Check DEU 

Career: 16:7-2-1
L10: 2144x1132x
T: M Moroney J: J Childs
6597.png

6. Ace High AUS 

Career: 21:5-3-0
L10: 55462x0241
T: D Payne J: D Oliver
6417.png

7. The Taj Mahal IRL 

Career: 23:3-4-3
L10: 5041x8x791
T: L Howley J: J McDonald
NotAvailable.png

8. Duretto GBR 

Career: 21:6-4-3
L10: x3x15x5331
T: A Balding J: D Dunn
47507.png

9. Red Verdon USA 

Career: 24:5-9-1
L10: 21x1422225
T: E Dunlop J: Z Purton
6340.png

10. Vengeur Masque IRL 

Career: 25:4-5-0
L10: 121x05x405
T: M Moroney J: P Moloney
76173.png

11. Ventura Storm IRL 

Career: 27:6-3-2
L10: 437829x794
T: D & B Hayes & T Dabernig J: R Bayliss
68396.png

12. Mighty Boss AUS 

Career: 13:2-1-0
L10: 1x780x0069
T: M Price J: T Clark
76863.png

13. Homesman USA 

Career: 12:4-3-1
L10: 153x16x217
T: L Howley J: B Melham
74619.png

14. Kings Will Dream IRL 

Career: 12:6-1-4
L10: 11111x4323
T: D Weir J: C Williams
NotAvailable.png

15. Sole Impact JPN 

Career: 37:4-5-12
L10: 732x03705x
T: H Toda J: R Sakai
77914.png

16. Gallic Chieftain FRA 

Career: 34:8-6-5
L10: 431105x024
T: D Weir J: D Yendall
6301.png

17. Night's Watch NZL 

Career: 18:8-2-2
L10: 2141x21316
T: D Weir J: B Allen
76848.png

18. Youngstar AUS 

Career: 11:4-1-3
L10: 311113x632
T: C Waller J: K McEvoy
10342.png

19e. Patrick Erin NZL 

Career: 27:11-3-5
L10: 114656x641
T: C Waller J: C Brown
9846.png

20e. Jaameh IRL 

Career: 22:6-3-4
L10: 33x1x61812
T: D & B Hayes & T Dabernig J: C Parish
 
 

 

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35 minutes ago, Fartoomuch said:

The latest from the big swinging dick himself-Lloyd

"In the wake of the Yucatan fiasco, leviathan owner Lloyd Williams has labelled punters who bet all-in into the Caulfield and Melbourne Cups as “stupid”.

Early on Monday it was announced that Yucatan would be running in the Caulfield Cup with Michael Walker booked to ride the horse and as a consequence the brilliant winner of last Saturday’s Herbert Power Stakes firmed to become outright favourite.

Bookies firmed the Aidan O'Brien galloper into $4.50 favourite in all-in betting, but it was revealed on Monday night Yucatan would not be a starter despite there being no official announcement.

This is the message that the wealthy Williams, the six-time Melbourne Cup winning owner, had on Tuesday for punters who had done their money backing Yucatan all-in.

“I feel sorry for them, I hope they get their money back. But if they were betting all-in they were probably stupid in Cups,” Williams said on RSN.

“I don’t encourage anyone to be betting at those all-in prices in those Cups.

“There is so many changes in a Melbourne Cup or a Caulfield Cup over a period of time.

“Betting on the futures … on these bookmaker sites… if they (punters) were seeking my advice I would be telling them not to take the futures, wait until they see the horse accept and the jockey is on him.”

Later on Tuesday, James McDonald was confirmed as Yucatan's rider in the Melbourne Cup where he is the $8.50 favourite with Ladbrokes.

Walker was doing his best to be diplomatic when asked about Williams’ change of heart for the Caulfield Cup, saying he would have to cop it sweet and watch from the grandstands while the Caulfield Cup is run on Saturday.

Yucatan’s withdrawal from the Caulfield Cup came only hours after he was handed a 2.5kg penalty for the Melbourne Cup for his stunning victory in the Herbert Power Stakes.

Originally 55th in the Melbourne Cup order of entry with 52kg, Yucatan climbed to No. 24 after Racing Victoria’s Greg Carpenter’s deemed the Irish star’s Herbert Power Stakes romp deserved a significant adjustment.

However, Williams claimed that had little bearing on his decision to take the galloper out of the Caulfield Cup.

“Not really no, we expected he was going to get 2 or 2.5 kg penalty anyway so that didn’t surprise us,” Williams said.

Williams claimed the reason for Yucatan not running in the Caulfield Cup was he hadn’t come through Saturday’s victory as the stable would have liked to back-up again seven days later.

“He hadn’t quite recovered from the race and had a little bit of fluid in his joints and it was thought running again within seven days was probably a bit too difficult for him,” Williams said.

“We thought we had better wait and go forward to the Melbourne Cup.”

 

I wonder if, in the course and pursuit of consistency that RVL vets are checking the horse for its recovery from the issues above. They do it on any whisper about other horses.

Great first line FTM, 

Stupid ante post punters, isn't that the big thing with big handicaps . You name them NZ, Australia, Ireland ,UK,  lot of punters  trying to pick the value and taking a chance, finding the handicap snip. He must have had half  plan to run , he booked a jock. I'd be thinking oh he must be all go , still risking next few days but jocks on iam feeling ok. Maybe the fluid was worst than they thought   but no way ante post punters stupid. Be silly to back likes Cross Counter, Emotionless at moment as they under a cloud but I can see why there was a plunge on him after Walker got on. 

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44 minutes ago, Red Rum said:

Great first line FTM, 

Stupid ante post punters, isn't that the big thing with big handicaps . You name them NZ, Australia, Ireland ,UK,  lot of punters  trying to pick the value and taking a chance, finding the handicap snip. He must have had half  plan to run , he booked a jock. I'd be thinking oh he must be all go , still risking next few days but jocks on iam feeling ok. Maybe the fluid was worst than they thought   but no way ante post punters stupid. Be silly to back likes Cross Counter, Emotionless at moment as they under a cloud but I can see why there was a plunge on him after Walker got on. 

I hope they got their money back says Lloyd. This after his earlier statements and betting knowledge . Please he must really think others are stupid with that sort of nonsense

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2 minutes ago, Fartoomuch said:

I hope they got their money back says Lloyd. This after his earlier statements and betting knowledge . Please he must really think others are stupid with that sort of nonsense

No one's getting money back FTM , never ever not happening . He's in gambling business with Crown is he not , if I get a heart  when I need a club  at his casino  he ain't paying his punters anything. Wished it was running , was bloody exciting Saturday , I was gobsmacked with performance  to be honest , watched COM again tho , that went so well  Saturday like OM pointed out earlier .Red Verdon  my each way pick, bit tight 21s but I'd live with it, Ed Dunlop travels them well like his late father. 

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12 hours ago, Red Rum said:

No one's getting money back FTM , never ever not happening . He's in gambling business with Crown is he not , if I get a heart  when I need a club  at his casino  he ain't paying his punters anything. Wished it was running , was bloody exciting Saturday , I was gobsmacked with performance  to be honest , watched COM again tho , that went so well  Saturday like OM pointed out earlier .Red Verdon  my each way pick, bit tight 21s but I'd live with it, Ed Dunlop travels them well like his late father. 

Stable says he will "improve with the run"....hasn't run since that placing behind Stradivarius. The top two look good chances but let's see what happens with the barrier draw later today.....:rcfe-like:

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17 minutes ago, Trump said:

Yes I see that. Finche to the Geelong Cup. The CC looks wide open. It’s going to be a nice race for punters who like exotics.

Withold looks to be  heading Geelong,  they don't want to I read , he's very lightly raced and races rarely  but owner Tony Bloom  big poker player , big gambler , so has decided to twist rather than stick as they say in London . Touch and go on a run without penalty in MC.He went up with those couple coming out but bumped down with Yucatan , then Lexus winner will likely bump him. Geelong Cup going to be cracking race.Bloom owns Brighton and Hove Albion , or big chunk of it  so not short of few bob. Prince of Aaron made Northumberland Plate form look pretty good.

The Queen Elizabeth on last day will be a top race with those eliminated getting a bonus if they win it I seem to recall. 

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I've gone Ace High (CC) into Marmelo (MC) - only for a small amount.

Ace High drawn 8, Oliver rides, in form, loves the 2400m.

Marmelo,  2nd in the Prix Kergolay (3000m) last start and in winning form prior. He was favourite for the Cup last year and went too hard too early, after a good Caulfield Cup run. This year, they're missing the CC, and retaining Soumillon as jockey and the trainer reports that he's a lot stronger as a 5yo.

 

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Barrier)
Jockey
FF-Win
FF-Plc
FD   All Runners
1 5X111 Best Solution (17) 57.5 Pat Cosgrave 17.00 5.00
2 433X4 The Cliffsofmoher (3) 56.5 Hugh Bowman 7.00 2.50
3 1250X Chestnut Coat (13) 55.5 Y Kawada 17.00 5.00
4 9X437 Jon Snow (15) 55.5 Damian Lane 35.00 8.50
5 X1132 Sound Check (16) 55.5 Jordan Childs 21.00 5.75
6 X0241 Ace High (8) 55 Damien Oliver 11.00 3.50
7 8X791 The Taj Mahal (19) 55 James McDonald 17.00 5.00
8 X5331 Duretto (1) 54.5 Dwayne Dunn 21.00 5.75
9 22225 Red Verdon (9) 54 Zac Purton 21.00 5.75
10 5X405 Vengeur Masque (7) 54 Patrick Moloney 91.00 23.00
11 9X794 Ventura Storm (11) 54 Regan Bayliss 35.00 8.50
12 X0069 Mighty Boss (14) 53.5 Tim Clark 101.00 26.00
13 6X217 Homesman (4) 53 Ben Melham 12.00 3.80
14 X4323 Kings Will Dream (6) 53 Craig Williams 5.00 2.00
15 3705X Sole Impact (20) 53 Ryusei Sakai 51.00 12.00
16 5X024 Gallic Chieftain (2) 52.5 Dean Yendall 51.00 12.00
17 21316 Night's Watch (18) 52 Ben Allen 13.00 4.00
18 13632 Youngstar (10) 51.5 Kerrin McEvoy 5.50 2.15
19 6X641 Patrick Erin (12) 52 Corey Brown 41.00 9.00
20 61812 Jaameh (5) 50 Cory Parish 31.00 7.50

 

Red Verdon blinkers first time RR....?! On his form, topweight looks great value.

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1 hour ago, Ohokaman said:
Barrier)
Jockey
FF-Win
FF-Plc
FD         All Runners
1       5X111 Best Solution (17) 57.5 Pat Cosgrave 17.00 5.00
2       433X4 The Cliffsofmoher (3) 56.5 Hugh Bowman 7.00 2.50
3       1250X Chestnut Coat (13) 55.5 Y Kawada 17.00 5.00
4       9X437 Jon Snow (15) 55.5 Damian Lane 35.00 8.50
5       X1132 Sound Check (16) 55.5 Jordan Childs 21.00 5.75
6       X0241 Ace High (8) 55 Damien Oliver 11.00 3.50
7       8X791 The Taj Mahal (19) 55 James McDonald 17.00 5.00
8       X5331 Duretto (1) 54.5 Dwayne Dunn 21.00 5.75
9       22225 Red Verdon (9) 54 Zac Purton 21.00 5.75
10       5X405 Vengeur Masque (7) 54 Patrick Moloney 91.00 23.00
11       9X794 Ventura Storm (11) 54 Regan Bayliss 35.00 8.50
12       X0069 Mighty Boss (14) 53.5 Tim Clark 101.00 26.00
13       6X217 Homesman (4) 53 Ben Melham 12.00 3.80
14       X4323 Kings Will Dream (6) 53 Craig Williams 5.00 2.00
15       3705X Sole Impact (20) 53 Ryusei Sakai 51.00 12.00
16       5X024 Gallic Chieftain (2) 52.5 Dean Yendall 51.00 12.00
17       21316 Night's Watch (18) 52 Ben Allen 13.00 4.00
18       13632 Youngstar (10) 51.5 Kerrin McEvoy 5.50 2.15
19       6X641 Patrick Erin (12) 52 Corey Brown 41.00 9.00
20       61812 Jaameh (5) 50 Cory Parish 31.00 7.50

 

Red Verdon blinkers first time RR....?! On his form, topweight looks great value.

RV regular in blinkers over the last few years OM , and ran a cracker in them in Hardwicke behind Crystal Ocean who would be carrying few kilos more than Best Solution if he was in Saturday, was just denied clear space at vital time, wore them again next time at Goodwood behind Mirage Dancer.3rd behind him in Hardwicke was COM at levels, RV gets 2.5kgs from him Saturday. COM was on a three day back up that day though and was strong to line. I think iam  going to go each way value Ventura Storm and Red Verdon. Difference in price RV to COM on Hardwicke form and VS to Youngster on Turnball form just seems to me to make them the  value for an each way punt in open contest. Best Solution iam not liking him but not sure why.

Will make some money for Saturday  tomorrow on Mask of Time in Moe  Cup , it's a matter of when with that horse. 

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