Fartoomuch 1,376 Report post Posted June 5, 2018 JEWELS WRAP (2) - Draws Didn't Play the Role Expected in Jewels Outcome That All Stars could win six races on the card when only drawing one marble inside 4 with 20 horses would have to be considered unusual though to be fair to Cambridge the disadvantages of the draws there have often been overstated. In 2014 five of the nine winners came off the second line. Still what All Stars achieved on Saturday was remarkable even though bad draws cost a few of our horses their best winning chance. We won with our only ace draw (Winterfell) but also from gates 8 and 10 and a widish 5 in a very competitive juvenile race, where wide draws were expensive commodities for horses like Jesse Duke in particular. While it is natural to bemoan bad draws (and even good draws can be unsuitable for some horses) low numbers are not always best. The 3 gate became rather notorious at Cambridge. There hasn't been a winner from three in the last 27 Jewels races here. There have been only two winners from Gate 2 and three winners from gate 1 is a lower percentage than you might expect given the general consensus on draws. In the same period there have been SEVEN winners from gate 5. We should all keep these stats in mind next time the Jewels go to Cambridge Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
tasman man 11 979 Report post Posted June 5, 2018 I've watched the draws from the first Jewels and they have never been the influence that most on here predict. My theory is that the best horses have an edge and the speed the races run at generally result in the cream rising to the top. The start usually sees a real burn , then easing off in the straight which is when the top horses get handy and ready to control things and they can run home fast enough that its physically impossible for those back in the field to make up ground especially out wide ! All this after a long hard season ,and often those that get the soft run on the fence get sucked into 3rd or 4th but can't quicken at that speed enough to beat the top horses ! The Group 1 horses have an edge when the big money is up....a couple of times an upset looked possible on Saturday ,a young trotter broke while the other just came to the end of its run. Interesting that the Aussie [Tritton] who said he'd lead at all costs had a change of heart once the heat went on ...twice ! Fartoomuch 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fartoomuch 1,376 Report post Posted June 6, 2018 Tasman man , you could also add that top drivers know , what times they are running up front and what their horse is capable of. The classic example was DD handing up to BO in the last, it was the winning of the race for mine Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
rangi 73 Report post Posted June 6, 2018 Purdon/Rasmussen 21 starters- 6 wins R Dunn 9 starters-0 wins C Dalgety 6 starters-1 win G Hope 2 starters-0 wins M Kerr 2 starters-0 wins R Green 6 starters-0 wins B Purdon 3 starters-0 wins S Reid 2 starters-1 win Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fartoomuch 1,376 Report post Posted June 6, 2018 R Dunns strike rate not helped by sons attacking driving style which does not work against those at top level They will do well at Nelson today however as it's more his go IMHO Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lee270744 682 Report post Posted June 6, 2018 Ray Green must be tearing his hair out with the tasks his horses are set by some of his drivers. Fartoomuch, rangi and hsvman 3 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
hsvman 294 Report post Posted June 7, 2018 Thought Andre Poutama drove his ray green runners very well Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lee270744 682 Report post Posted June 7, 2018 Yes, Andre did. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...