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Huey

HANDICAPPING POLICY

48 posts in this topic

This weeks example

Prince Oz, Scored his third Rated 75 race in a row!!!

Won all his five races in a row in South Island and has accumulated only 24 points. Typical 5 points for each win (plus his first win for 4 points)

A winner of six races of 16 and still in the Rated 85 grade in the South Island. He should be in the in open class grade.

Prime example of Strictland not knowing how to put horses through the grades.

Strictland takes points off far too quickly, not allowing them to have enough runs in their grade before dropping their points.

By doing this, he's clogged the lower grades!

Some trainers are taking advantage of this, and purely cheating the system and Strictland and NZTR can't see the big picture.

With the Winter Cup coming up, there are some horses just going round. 

Look at Te Rapa on Saturday. 8 races - 6 winners got typical 5 points. Maiden automatically goes to 62 and the 2yo got 3 points.
Ambitious Winner - 5 points won by one and quarter lengths
Cyber Attack - 3 points in 2YO. 
Dougie - 5 Points deleted. Has NOT raced in Australia YET! Won by three and a quarter. 
Pasabahce - 5 points won by a nose
Shockwave - Maiden winner automatically goes to 62
Igraine - 5 points won by 2 and quarter.
Storming The Tower - 5 points won by 3 lengths.
Vittachi - 5 points won by a short neck.

Is Strictland the handicapper or a automatic computer????
Strictland shows no thought by giving 5 points. By only giving winners 5 points, after two/three unplaced runs they have lost the points of winning, therefore nothing is going through grades, hence clogging the lower grades.

The system is a mess.

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But help me understand how promoting bad horses to higher ratings helps anyone ?

Every horse has a mark and that’s where the handicapping skill lies IMO, knowing how good each horse is and keeping them racing competitively 

I can see no reason to penalise any horse if it’s run to its mark, conversely I have no problem with significant readjustments if a horse has run above its theoretical mark.

As for SI racing, half those horses are actually not much good so arguably they should get only one or two points for winning what are just awful races.

The key is to keep them racing because they’re assets and they earn money for the industry.

Your thoughts ?

Is now a god time to discuss Rodrico ?

 

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The other point that puzzles me is why some horses win and go to 63 & others to 62? Is it because it's just an automatic 5 points no matter the base they are off? This can amount to .5kg in the R65 grade.

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4 hours ago, Huey said:

The other point that puzzles me is why some horses win and go to 63 & others to 62? Is it because it's just an automatic 5 points no matter the base they are off? This can amount to .5kg in the R65 grade.

Saturday v midweek ?

Not sure but maybe 

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On 6/17/2018 at 9:02 AM, uneasy said:

You are moaning about less than 3% of all starters in R65 Nationally

My gelding won at hs second start so went from 51 to 63 which is fine .Next start runs 6 of 8 11 lenghts off winner at a Sunday meeting and doesn’t drop any points.Hence next start he’s still stuck at the top of the 65 being a gelding .Makes it tough when you are against multiple winning drop back mares .

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2 hours ago, puha said:

My gelding won at hs second start so went from 51 to 63 which is fine .Next start runs 6 of 8 11 lenghts off winner at a Sunday meeting and doesn’t drop any points.Hence next start he’s still stuck at the top of the 65 being a gelding .Makes it tough when you are against multiple winning drop back mares .

Yep and therein lies the problem total inconsistency in the hadicapping , sometimes you drop a point or two for a better performance than that it just makes no sense at all.

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Rarely do horses drop at their first start after winning I guess if they did there would be just as many if not more moaning they get dropped too quick and can't get starts??

Who would want to be the handicapper damned if you do damned if you don't comes to mind!!

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6 hours ago, puha said:

My gelding won at hs second start so went from 51 to 63 which is fine .Next start runs 6 of 8 11 lenghts off winner at a Sunday meeting and doesn’t drop any points.Hence next start he’s still stuck at the top of the 65 being a gelding .Makes it tough when you are against multiple winning drop back mares .

I'm no expert either, but noticed He's Unforgettable went from R47 to R63 after winning a Maiden at Te Teko. Up to 65 class today so will be interesting to see how he goes, and the result after......:rolleyes:

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Pitty is right here, you guys don’t want a simple formula based system ( nor do I, otherwise a $50k maiden at Ellerslie is the same as a $6k maiden at Greymouth ) but when the handicapper gets a wee bit subjective and tweaks a penalty based on his view of the horse’s performance, or worth of the race, you accuse him of being “all over the place”

I’m all in favour of making him acccountable, but let’s agree to be rational about it.

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4 hours ago, poundforpound said:

Pitty is right here, you guys don’t want a simple formula based system ( nor do I, otherwise a $50k maiden at Ellerslie is the same as a $6k maiden at Greymouth ) but when the handicapper gets a wee bit subjective and tweaks a penalty based on his view of the horse’s performance, or worth of the race, you accuse him of being “all over the place”

I’m all in favour of making him acccountable, but let’s agree to be rational about it.

But that's what makes it so excruciatingly difficult to follow , its a bit of both that makes no sense at all and under that scenario you'd be better having a formula based system as then at least you'd know where you stood and it would somewhat remove the element of potential favouritism which has clearly happened before.

I'd be all for the current system as well if I had a horse that won a trial and was deducted a point for doing so an unheard of scenario I'd venture to say?

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20 hours ago, poundforpound said:

Saturday v midweek ?

Not sure but maybe 

Here is an example at the same meeting

Penticoup wins a 1600 mdn goes to 62

Zeefa for Zed wins the very next race a 1600m goes to 63 

The 2nd horse runs a slightly faster time but marginal at best particularly on a H10 , whats the difference? Both at midweek race at Hawera.

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53 minutes ago, Huey said:

But that's what makes it so excruciatingly difficult to follow , its a bit of both that makes no sense at all and under that scenario you'd be better having a formula based system as then at least you'd know where you stood and it would somewhat remove the element of potential favouritism which has clearly happened before.

I'd be all for the current system as well if I had a horse that won a trial and was deducted a point for doing so an unheard of scenario I'd venture to say?

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Son Of Maher was never dropped for winning a trial. I asked that his last run from the previous season was reassessed after getting beaten 10 lengths, which any one can do, after consideration SOM was dropped a further point, 2 point drop for being beaten 10 lengths is very common reassessment. It is how it was recorded that has caused some people to think otherwise.

Trust that satisfies you 

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30 minutes ago, uneasy said:

Son Of Maher was never dropped for winning a trial. I asked that his last run from the previous season was reassessed after getting beaten 10 lengths, which any one can do, after consideration SOM was dropped a further point, 2 point drop for being beaten 10 lengths is very common reassessment. It is how it was recorded that has caused some people to think otherwise.

Trust that satisfies you 

Why didn’t the handicapper alter the last run to -2 instead of putting it on the trial run? Maybe that’s were the confusion lies when people look at the results . Interesting it was 5 months between the last run and the trial is their a time limit you can ask for a review ? Cheers 

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I guess there is a time limit, certainly must be between last run and next start.

You are obviously capable at looking up horses ratings check out Turn Me Loose and then comment!!!!

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1 minute ago, uneasy said:

I guess there is a time limit, certainly must be between last run and next start.

You are obviously capable at looking up horses ratings check out Turn Me Loose and then comment!!!!

Murray is a world class handicapper, like you Pitty :) 

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1 hour ago, uneasy said:

Thanks Leo, at least the three of us understand how it works. I know when you trained you did and still do

By that you mean you phone the handicapper and have a horse reassessed months after it's run? Is that how it works? 

Why does he change it though , assuming his initial assessment is correct , Does the handicapper take into account what's happened between that run and the past 5 months when reassessing the run?

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On 7/11/2018 at 8:28 PM, uneasy said:

I guess there is a time limit, certainly must be between last run and next start.

You are obviously capable at looking up horses ratings check out Turn Me Loose and then comment!!!!

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