RaceCafe..#1...Tipsters Thread.... Share Your Fancies For Fun...Lets See Who The Best Tipsters Here Are.
chevy86

NZB May Sale today

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141 sold for an aggregate of just over $2mil. Take out the top 5 (4 Oz breds and one Savabeel) and the aggregate for the other 136 sold is $1.4mil.( that's an average of $10,294 friends!!). Not to mention the plethora of horses presented with realistic reserves which often didn't even cover the service fee, most of them passed in.

 

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And so who is living in dreamland here....I think those stud masters that have made some questionable decisions regarding 2018 service fees need to have a rethink. Commonsense needs to prevail here...either they stand the horse at a reasonable, acceptable fee or shut up shop...because that’s whay many will be doing within 5 years.

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14 minutes ago, Huey said:

This happens every year

Hardly Huey, this year's weanling aggregate, 1st day, is half of last year and clearance down from 78% to 68%. Aggregate for top 7 was $613K leaving less than $1mil for other 106 sold. An absolute disaster in spite of the spin.

NZB still clip the ticket, Curraghmore and company still get paid, as do the transporters, vets etc but the non-stud breeders are up the creek.

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4 minutes ago, chevy86 said:

Hardly Huey, this year's weanling aggregate, 1st day, is half of last year and clearance down from 78% to 68%. Aggregate for top 7 was $613K leaving less than $1mil for other 106 sold. An absolute disaster in spite of the spin.

NZB still clip the ticket, Curraghmore and company still get paid, as do the transporters, vets etc but the non-stud breeders are up the creek.

Every year weanlings go for well less than their service fees is what I meant. 

It was very quiet 1st day, perhaps a sale like this is impacted by online auctions during the year?

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12 hours ago, Shad said:

Wise men ride them, fools breed them, and old fella sold me some years ago, have never forgotten his words of wisdom, pity didn't take his advice.

Where do the people that buy them fit into his wisdom? 

If they paid $450,000 for Mongolian Beauty as a yearling, and sold her as a 3 year old for a sale-topping $180,000 after she won stakes of $26,200 they must be well up the fool scale?

Perhaps the trainers will cough up 10% of the decrease in value?  No way, they are wise men as they get gravy on the up and shrug shoulders on the down.

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20 hours ago, Scotch Thistle said:

A quick flick through the first day sales showed 15 yearlings or weanlings sold for $1,000 each, and 5 sold for $500 each.   Ouch!!

Not "ouch" at all Scotchy. That's the risk breeders take be they horses, cattle or anything that goes to auction. If a breeder pays $7K to get his mare in foal he doesn't neccessarily have the right to expect someone to pay $20 or $30K for the offspring a year later. That's what the market says they're worth on the day. And as an Aussie cattle breeder told me years ago "it's always better to be sorry you sold than sorry you didn't sell."

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9 hours ago, Belinda said:

I do think that most of those cheaper ones weren't commercially bred. Fine if you are breeding one to race yourself but no point in trying to get good money for a foal with little breeding on the dam's side.

Absolutely, very ignorant breeders that are breeding horses at that level to sell, doesnt make sense.

Breeding to race a different story.

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Tax offsets.

If you want to save $3300 in tax you could either;

(a)  Pour $10,000 into a broodmare that has less black type than there is on the average speeding ticket.

or

(b)   Use the $10,000 to pay me a consultancy fee, a good part of which will be spent on a long lazy leisurely lunch with lascivious ladies at Leo's.

You know the choices; which one will you take.

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36 minutes ago, gubellini said:

There is a Yearling Colt currently being syndicated for $182,500. His Weanling half sister sold for $1,500. Graphically illustrates the vagaries of breeding and selling.

Big difference there is comparing a colt to a filly (can't really do it), and what were the two stallions?, that may tell a story

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14 minutes ago, BruceL said:

Big difference there is comparing a colt to a filly (can't really do it), and what were the two stallions?, that may tell a story

Colt by Reliable Man filly by Contributer Lot 316. Hard for me to reconcile the two prices but point noted about comparing colts with fillies.

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1 hour ago, BruceL said:

Big difference there is comparing a colt to a filly (can't really do it), and what were the two stallions?, that may tell a story

Actually its an interesting post.  as a comment to the above, Mongolian Beauty sold for $450K as a yearling filly and then resold this week for $180K.  Her full brother, Mongolian Falcon, sold for $150K at the Inglis Easter Sale...

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1 hour ago, La Zip said:

Actually its an interesting post.  as a comment to the above, Mongolian Beauty sold for $450K as a yearling filly and then resold this week for $180K.  Her full brother, Mongolian Falcon, sold for $150K at the Inglis Easter Sale...

Generic statement that never takes into account type obviously (think Mongolian Falcon always had knee issues , including x-rays when for sale)

Also the real premier quality fillies always have appeal and are desired at yearling stage (especially this year, have sold particularly well)

There is never that much appeal for fillies that have moderate pedigrees and are put for sale, this is when breeders can get heavily burnt and lose significant money.

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On 5/9/2018 at 2:47 PM, Huey said:

Not to mention the stigmas associated with the gender of particular stallions stock , such as Tavistock i.e. the fillies are no good. 

You mention you think the fillies are no good but this years sales they still sold for $180k, $220k, $420k, $500k, $750k, $975k so buyers are still keen on the quality

There is no doubt the fillies haven't quite matched the colts but to say they are no good is pretty far fetched, 

From 93 female runners he has had 50 winners which includes 2 listed winners, 3 G1 Oaks placegetters and another 4 stakes placegetters, so 9.7% stakes horses to runners.

 

Do the fillies have as good a record as the boys?, clearly not.

But they definitely are not no good!, Admittedly he has work to do (but I can remember when the call was the O'Reilly colts were no good, the Montjeu fillies no good, the High Chaparral fillies no good etc, etc )

I am picking the quality of fillies will include from next season as thats when his numbers and quality of mares really picked up. Apart from his current weanlings all the rest of his progeny have been off service fees between $8-15k so scope for improvement.

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1 hour ago, BruceL said:

You mention you think the fillies are no good but this years sales they still sold for $180k, $220k, $420k, $500k, $750k, $975k so buyers are still keen on the quality

There is no doubt the fillies haven't quite matched the colts but to say they are no good is pretty far fetched, 

From 93 female runners he has had 50 winners which includes 2 listed winners, 3 G1 Oaks placegetters and another 4 stakes placegetters, so 9.7% stakes horses to runners.

 

Do the fillies have as good a record as the boys?, clearly not.

But they definitely are not no good!, Admittedly he has work to do (but I can remember when the call was the O'Reilly colts were no good, the Montjeu fillies no good, the High Chaparral fillies no good etc, etc )

I am picking the quality of fillies will include from next season as thats when his numbers and quality of mares really picked up. Apart from his current weanlings all the rest of his progeny have been off service fees between $8-15k so scope for improvement.

You'd surely have to say the top  priced fillies were bought more on their female bloodlines or who they are related to than the fact they were Tavistocks. i.e. sister to Werther, Diamond Like family, Special Diamond etc. perhaps in comparison to the colts.

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