RaceCafe..#1...Tipsters Thread.... Share Your Fancies For Fun...Lets See Who The Best Tipsters Here Are.
Franco Ice

NZ Derby

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Taking nothing away from the efforts of the horses and their connections but I'm a little dubious about the quality of this years race compared to recent renewals.

The winner was clearly the best stayer, aided by a superb ride, but he was just short of the best staying three-year-olds in Melbourne in the spring.

Civil Disobedience was never on the track but he was only beaten just over four lengths. There are always exceptions but one wouldn't expect Tasmanian Derby form to stack-up in the AJC Derby.

I've rarely missed a NZ Derby in thirty years and year in year out there's at least a couple of standout physical types in the yard. This year there were plenty of nice types, prepared  immaculately, but nothing that jumped out at you. Certainly they were a more refined lot, probably a reflection of what we're breeding. Time will tell I guess.

 

 

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5 hours ago, Franco Ice said:

Taking nothing away from the efforts of the horses and their connections but I'm a little dubious about the quality of this years race compared to recent renewals.

The winner was clearly the best stayer, aided by a superb ride, but he was just short of the best staying three-year-olds in Melbourne in the spring.

Civil Disobedience was never on the track but he was only beaten just over four lengths. There are always exceptions but one wouldn't expect Tasmanian Derby form to stack-up in the AJC Derby.

I've rarely missed a NZ Derby in thirty years and year in year out there's at least a couple of standout physical types in the yard. This year there were plenty of nice types, prepared  immaculately, but nothing that jumped out at you. Certainly they were a more refined lot, probably a reflection of what we're breeding. Time will tell I guess.

 

 

Rates on a par with recent editions on my data, certainly the first 4 0r 5 can kick on through the autumn assuming pulling up ok.

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9 hours ago, Franco Ice said:

Taking nothing away from the efforts of the horses and their connections but I'm a little dubious about the quality of this years race compared to recent renewals.

The winner was clearly the best stayer, aided by a superb ride, but he was just short of the best staying three-year-olds in Melbourne in the spring.

Civil Disobedience was never on the track but he was only beaten just over four lengths. There are always exceptions but one wouldn't expect Tasmanian Derby form to stack-up in the AJC Derby.

I've rarely missed a NZ Derby in thirty years and year in year out there's at least a couple of standout physical types in the yard. This year there were plenty of nice types, prepared  immaculately, but nothing that jumped out at you. Certainly they were a more refined lot, probably a reflection of what we're breeding. Time will tell I guess.

 

 

The fact that Murray Baker took him to Aussie in the Spring is quite a good clue as to the respect he has for his ability.  Maybe he strengthened up a lot over his early summer break.

And if he is off to the Sydney Derby one would expect him to be competitive given the judgment  usually shown by M Baker.  He is no mug 

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12 hours ago, Franco Ice said:

Taking nothing away from the efforts of the horses and their connections but I'm a little dubious about the quality of this years race compared to recent renewals.

The winner was clearly the best stayer, aided by a superb ride, but he was just short of the best staying three-year-olds in Melbourne in the spring.

Civil Disobedience was never on the track but he was only beaten just over four lengths. There are always exceptions but one wouldn't expect Tasmanian Derby form to stack-up in the AJC Derby.

I've rarely missed a NZ Derby in thirty years and year in year out there's at least a couple of standout physical types in the yard. This year there were plenty of nice types, prepared  immaculately, but nothing that jumped out at you. Certainly they were a more refined lot, probably a reflection of what we're breeding. Time will tell I guess.

 

 

Agree..this years crop of 3yo bpys aren't brilliant, but if VDD or evenDDD go and clean up in Sydney I'll happily eat humble.

Shame that Hello It's Me and Dijon Bleu copped  injuries...HIM accounted for Contessa Vanessa comfortably enough in the Royal Stakes on 1 Jan (at only her 5th start)  and was on a Derby path.

 

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Gotta love the jockeys' comments. The Aussie said 'the race wasn't run to suit.' He should know by now there's no free lunches and by and large you have to make your own luck. The only one it ever suits is the winner. It's like asking the winning jockey about the state of the track. He's always going to be ok with it. Another said the track was too firm for his horse. Good 3 and the horse had raced 3 times on a good 3. No such thing as hard and fast these days. Lots of them are going to be better next year. 

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31 minutes ago, Brown Fox said:

I thought The Mayor was pretty impressive coming from the back to just miss 3rd.

Please don't mention that Basil B - was my roughie and had decent each way go and exotics etc etc etc - can't bear to watch the replay again yet:angry:

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Great feedback from Damien Oliver after he rode Vin DD in the spring. Not ready for the Derby now - will be a much better horse in the autumn.

That's the sort of advice experienced jock's should be giving - well done.

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53 minutes ago, Mattski said:

Great feedback from Damien Oliver after he rode Vin DD in the spring. Not ready for the Derby now - will be a much better horse in the autumn.

That's the sort of advice experienced jock's should be giving - well done.

Its kinda standard.....most jockeys say  when horses unplaced.."bit weak ,will be much better in 6 months ,or a cup horse in a year !.

Its part of the territory.......check out the comments from jockeys in the Derby.

They don't say...youve fried this horse , well beaten and prospects dim for future !

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5 minutes ago, tasman man 11 said:

Its kinda standard.....most jockeys say  when horses unplaced.."bit weak ,will be much better in 6 months ,or a cup horse in a year !.

Its part of the territory.......check out the comments from jockeys in the Derby.

They don't say...youve fried this horse , well beaten and prospects dim for future !

I've found the best jockeys for sound advice after their rides were the ones that actually worked with horses other than just rode them on raceday.  For example those that broke in horses to supplement their race riding income.  Hayden Tinsley was an example.  He would also be the first to admit he butchered the ride on those rare occasions that he did.  I take the jockeys comments after the race with a grain of salt.  They are often the stock standard cliches.  Bit like the comment line on the race form.

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I didn't think ENDOWMENT'S run all that shabby either. Drew 19,  3 and 4 wide whole way, blistering speed at 600 to lead til the 100, 1/2 head from 3rd.

Better draw the placings would have been different.

I wouldn't be biased though being breeder and owner, and I'm very proud of his great run.

Pundits agreed though, the run was massive. Never mentioned him before the race (except Stu Laing). Suppose we're pretty lowly in the scheme of who they talk about prior.

2nd G2 to Demonitization. Just waiting for a good track. And pulled up in splendid condition. Watch this space.

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2 hours ago, Pegs Pride said:

I didn't think ENDOWMENT'S run all that shabby either. Drew 19,  3 and 4 wide whole way, blistering speed at 600 to lead til the 100, 1/2 head from 3rd.

Better draw the placings would have been different.

I wouldn't be biased though being breeder and owner, and I'm very proud of his great run.

Pundits agreed though, the run was massive. Never mentioned him before the race (except Stu Laing). Suppose we're pretty lowly in the scheme of who they talk about prior.

2nd G2 to Demonitization. Just waiting for a good track. And pulled up in splendid condition. Watch this space.

Yes.....massive effort.

There were a few who wanted a different run ,but being wide in Derby far from ideal.

I guess the media don't feature the roughies in 'betting'.

Good luck with this horse.

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On 3/5/2018 at 5:37 PM, tasman man 11 said:

Yes.....massive effort.

There were a few who wanted a different run ,but being wide in Derby far from ideal.

I guess the media don't feature the roughies in 'betting'.

Good luck with this horse.

Thanks TM.

Stable believes he deserves a chance for some Aussi spoils, so he's off to Sydney. Announced today Rosehill guineas, and a nom in the Derby if all goes well.

Came through super from the Derby. 

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