NZ DERBY WINNER on breeding.

[Trump 2,741]

Who looks the winner on breeding and recent form? I think that Civil Disobedience (a John Foote/D Weir purchase), XBox, On The Rocks and Mission Hills are the most likely. Any thoughts? 

[tasman man 11 979]

On the Rocks ' dam is half sister to Efficient [Zabeel] and Guillotine[ Montjeu] so has to be a hope .

But the closeness of that last race was such that 5 or 6 good chances on that ,and ground possibly firmer ! Add the 'new' Aussie and the Te Akau Aussie very stiff last start !

Dance x 3 's mum from family of Lucia Valentino.

Im hoping for the Roc de Cambes.[ may help our foal !]

The winner will be the horse that runs the last 200m fastest !

 

[Trump 2,741]

Jockey is important. If J Allan is on Weir's horse - watch out! He's a master rider.

[crustyngrizzly 1,702]

52 minutes ago, Trump said:

Jockey is important. If J Allan is on Weir's horse - watch out! He's a master rider.

Pretty sure Ben Allen the apprentice is coming over.

[chelseacol 2,488]

2 hours ago, poundforpound said:

That horse has Tassie form Trump.

I know we’ve fallen on hard times here in NZ but if a fucking feral inbred apple pickers Derby horse wins our equivalent I’ll  vote Labour.

Having seen average Aussie horses come over and win the Derby and Auckland Cup and Karaka Million .... I will have it on my ticket 

[Ohokaman 5,844]

It's a pretty ordinary Derby this year Trumpy with a 30 point rating spread from top to bottom. XBox isn't running.

Ben Allen is on Weirs horse.

Having had a look at the breeding perspective, here's my take. And I might say my pick was Vin de Dance but not so sure now....!

Scott Base - highest rater at 90. Might be easy to dismiss him given Dalghar is by a sprinter- Miler in Anabaa, but look at the quality further back in the pedigree....Daltawa is the dam of two Champion horses in Daylami and Dalakhani ( Prix de L'Arc ) and Danehill blood also helps. That sprinting side may be the reason he has such a good turn of foot in his races.

On the Rocks - as TM has mentioned you have Efficient ( Melb Cup ) and Guillotine by Montjeu on the Dams side.

The Mayor - by Rock'n Pop who was 2nd in the Derby to Silent Achiever...by Fastnet Rock out of top mare in Popsy who was 2nd in the Auckland Cup then won the QE.....Dam was a very capable mare Soph, winner of 10 races.(R99)

Jimmy Rocket - trained by the Derby master Roger James so has to be looked at. Jimmy Choux is well known to those in Oz...won the NZ Derby, Rosehill Guineas and ran second in the Cox Plate. Dam has Rock of Gibraltar and Danehill bloodlines.

Civil Disobedience - the unknown but D Weir knows what he's doing. Very strong South Island pedigree. The Raise the Flags are very stout stayers with Sadlers Wells influence and on the Dams side you have Ararat Note...full sister to Melbourne Cup winner Baghdad Note.

As I say, wide open this year, anything could win it. Weather may have a big part to play. If the rain comes, it's a lottery.....

[Trump 2,741]

7 hours ago, poundforpound said:

That horse has Tassie form Trump.

I know we’ve fallen on hard times here in NZ but if a fucking feral inbred apple pickers Derby horse wins our equivalent I’ll  vote Labour.

Bred in South Island ! Purchased at NZB SI sale! 

[Trump 2,741]

2 hours ago, Ohokaman said:

It's a pretty ordinary Derby this year Trumpy with a 30 point rating spread from top to bottom. XBox isn't running.

Ben Allen is on Weirs horse.

Having had a look at the breeding perspective, here's my take. And I might say my pick was Vin de Dance but not so sure now....!

Scott Base - highest rater at 90. Might be easy to dismiss him given Dalghar is by a sprinter- Miler in Anabaa, but look at the quality further back in the pedigree....Daltawa is the dam of two Champion horses in Daylami and Dalakhani ( Prix de L'Arc ) and Danehill blood also helps. That sprinting side may be the reason he has such a good turn of foot in his races.

On the Rocks - as TM has mentioned you have Efficient ( Melb Cup ) and Guillotine by Montjeu on the Dams side.

The Mayor - by Rock'n Pop who was 2nd in the Derby to Silent Achiever...by Fastnet Rock out of top mare in Popsy who was 2nd in the Auckland Cup then won the QE.....Dam was a very capable mare Soph, winner of 10 races.(R99)

Jimmy Rocket - trained by the Derby master Roger James so has to be looked at. Jimmy Choux is well known to those in Oz...won the NZ Derby, Rosehill Guineas and ran second in the Cox Plate. Dam has Rock of Gibraltar and Danehill bloodlines.

Civil Disobedience - the unknown but D Weir knows what he's doing. Very strong South Island pedigree. The Raise the Flags are very stout stayers with Sadlers Wells influence and on the Dams side you have Ararat Note...full sister to Melbourne Cup winner Baghdad Note.

As I say, wide open this year, anything could win it. Weather may have a big part to play. If the rain comes, it's a lottery.....

If it rains it should be easier to pick the winner ! Most can't handle the heavy - so which one will. I think the Avon Guineas form will stack up.

[Insider 3,961]

10 hours ago, poundforpound said:

That horse has Tassie form Trump.

I know we’ve fallen on hard times here in NZ but if a fucking feral inbred apple pickers Derby horse wins our equivalent I’ll  vote Labour.

I am secretly hoping that it does win NOW!

[Insider 3,961]

7 hours ago, chelseacol said:

Having seen average Aussie horses come over and win the Derby and Auckland Cup and Karaka Million .... I will have it on my ticket 

Didn’t that fellow Birchley win the Karaka Million, maybe twice(?), I wonder how?

[Idolmite 2,562]

10 hours ago, poundforpound said:

That horse has Tassie form Trump.

I know we’ve fallen on hard times here in NZ but if a fucking feral inbred apple pickers Derby horse wins our equivalent I’ll  vote Labour.

You do realise what you've just done. Created the bet of the weekend. At least we'll all get a good laugh when it rolls home....

[Idolmite 2,562]

18 hours ago, tasman man 11 said:

On the Rocks ' dam is half sister to Efficient [Zabeel] and Guillotine[ Montjeu] so has to be a hope .

But the closeness of that last race was such that 5 or 6 good chances on that ,and ground possibly firmer ! Add the 'new' Aussie and the Te Akau Aussie very stiff last start !

Dance x 3 's mum from family of Lucia Valentino.

Im hoping for the Roc de Cambes.[ may help our foal !]

The winner will be the horse that runs the last 200m fastest !

 

Te Akan Aussie?

[Maximus 439]

8 hours ago, Ohokaman said:

It's a pretty ordinary Derby this year Trumpy with a 30 point rating spread from top to bottom. XBox isn't running.

Ben Allen is on Weirs horse.

Having had a look at the breeding perspective, here's my take. And I might say my pick was Vin de Dance but not so sure now....!

Scott Base - highest rater at 90. Might be easy to dismiss him given Dalghar is by a sprinter- Miler in Anabaa, but look at the quality further back in the pedigree....Daltawa is the dam of two Champion horses in Daylami and Dalakhani ( Prix de L'Arc ) and Danehill blood also helps. That sprinting side may be the reason he has such a good turn of foot in his races.

On the Rocks - as TM has mentioned you have Efficient ( Melb Cup ) and Guillotine by Montjeu on the Dams side.

The Mayor - by Rock'n Pop who was 2nd in the Derby to Silent Achiever...by Fastnet Rock out of top mare in Popsy who was 2nd in the Auckland Cup then won the QE.....Dam was a very capable mare Soph, winner of 10 races.(R99)

Jimmy Rocket - trained by the Derby master Roger James so has to be looked at. Jimmy Choux is well known to those in Oz...won the NZ Derby, Rosehill Guineas and ran second in the Cox Plate. Dam has Rock of Gibraltar and Danehill bloodlines.

Civil Disobedience - the unknown but D Weir knows what he's doing. Very strong South Island pedigree. The Raise the Flags are very stout stayers with Sadlers Wells influence and on the Dams side you have Ararat Note...full sister to Melbourne Cup winner Baghdad Note.

As I say, wide open this year, anything could win it. Weather may have a big part to play. If the rain comes, it's a lottery.....

Great summary Ohokaman... if Xbox is out there goes my Futures bet from Nov LOL ...good chance it'll be Slow or even Heavy on Sat  if predicted rain arrives and stays ...if it is quite wet I fancy Civil Disobedience on pedigree and Danznaddance on guts. This filly is not to be underestimated and Logan/Gibbs wouldn't be running her if she wasn't up to it..another Rising Romance in the making?

[Trump 2,741]

The only thing I have a query about is Weir's choice of Jockey. Altho Ben Allen is a very good young jockey, you have to ask why not John Allan who has won 3 of CD's 4 wins incl the Tassie Derby? JA will be staying in Melb to ride Cliff's Edge in the Aust Guineas, so maybe, the NZ Derby is a throw at the stumps? Interesting. They may win both? There's a good multi - CE into CD ? 

[tasman man 11 979]

5 hours ago, Idolmite said:

Te Akan Aussie?

Oops.......Mission Hill[ AUS] with the Aussie mum....from the Baker stable.

Noted it last start as very unlucky ,and from a top stable !

[Ohokaman 5,844]

17 hours ago, Trump said:

If it rains it should be easier to pick the winner ! Most can't handle the heavy - so which one will. I think the Avon Guineas form will stack up.

If track good looks like the top two....if very wet the Jimmy C's should handle it.

[La Zip 468]

I only hope the trip to Melbourne last Spring (obviously at OTI’s behest)  hasn’t stumped Vin De Dance...he seemed a bit one paced last time out ... however he should enjoy the journey...bad barrier as he likes to race handy...

[Ohokaman 5,844]

Derby Preview on Trackside this morning....let's see what the experts say.....

[Ohokaman 5,844]

2 hours ago, Ohokaman said:

Derby Preview on Trackside this morning....let's see what the experts say.....

For those interested, picks were :

Guerin - Danzdance

Tan- Scott Base

Emily- Danzdance

Lance- Danzdance

Nigel- Danzdance

Hunt (TAB)- On the Rocks

Cross- Vin de Dance

Rodley- Mission Hill. ( stable very bullish about it and has won in the wet )

[WhoKnows 791]

I think Danzdanzdance is a good thing barring bad luck.

Was a certainty beaten in the Avondale guineas having to switch back to the slower part of the track and just getting nutted, and Matty won't make that same mistake again.

I liked Scott Base but the switch in jockey is a bit of a concern, Colgan is the Derby king, but to put a rider on who has never ridden the horse before is a bit of a risk, but no doubt the horse is good enough, did Rosie get the boot or did she stay loyal to the Bull team? Kudos to her if she did.

[Ohokaman 5,844]

17 hours ago, weasel57 said:

Great summary Ohokaman... if Xbox is out there goes my Futures bet from Nov LOL ...good chance it'll be Slow or even Heavy on Sat  if predicted rain arrives and stays ...if it is quite wet I fancy Civil Disobedience on pedigree and Danznaddance on guts. This filly is not to be underestimated and Logan/Gibbs wouldn't be running her if she wasn't up to it..another Rising Romance in the making?

XBox sold to Hong Kong apparently Weasel.

[Ohokaman 5,844]

Well it won't be Scott Base..just announced that he has been scratched. One less to worry about......

[bloke 1,232]

I enjoyed the Derby preview.  Gee Emily sure is Class.

[Maximus 439]

cant day I have done an exhaustive analysis but I am Secratariat;'s biggest fan..so I look for him in pedigrees ..

On The Rocks has him through Volksraad out of a Secretariat mare; and OTR has Oncidium on his mother;s side, too...so that satisfies me that he will stay the trip...and he doesn't mind the rain-affected track as proven in two most recent wins. In the absence of Scott Base and Xbox... maybe he's stronger than the filly but I don't thonk there's much between them.

[Mattski 176]

Mission Hill my pick