RaceCafe..#1...Tipsters Thread.... Share Your Fancies For Fun...Lets See Who The Best Tipsters Here Are.
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Tough going

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Looking at yesterday's Randwick results and I see Tangmere ( 3 yr  Frankel - Our Echezeaux) finally wins a race. 1400mt A$43,500 stake. A $1.3 million purchase at Karaka.

It will be interesting to see what happens next. It may have had problems up till now, but running in a A$43.5k race seems to be a bit of a lowly start.

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Jack Glengarry did some research (some years ago, now) on sales-topping yearlings in several countries and the returns on investment did not make good reading. His opinion was that the breeding principles were wrong. Don't have current data but see some 'well-bred' horses are carefully placed to create a good winning record - more quantity than quality. 

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Also many of the commercial breeders are looking for big returns...and the big sale ring price is where they concentrate...if it wins a race, good...but if not, they’ll spin it away because they’ve got their cash....they just want a page in the catalogue...so they bend to the high flying dedicated followers of fashion...and the money goes round and round and round, until the person that stumps up the cash finally wakes up...by then, there is a new money to be caught &killed.....and that’s why NZ is full of fabulous, wonderful stories of great bargain buys, “damaged” horses and sheer flukes that makes the heart warm and give us “out-of-the-loopers” hope! 

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5 hours ago, La Zip said:

Also many of the commercial breeders are looking for big returns...and the big sale ring price is where they concentrate...if it wins a race, good...but if not, they’ll spin it away because they’ve got their cash....they just want a page in the catalogue...so they bend to the high flying dedicated followers of fashion...and the money goes round and round and round, until the person that stumps up the cash finally wakes up...by then, there is a new money to be caught &killed.....and that’s why NZ is full of fabulous, wonderful stories of great bargain buys, “damaged” horses and sheer flukes that makes the heart warm and give us “out-of-the-loopers” hope! 

.. ah yes ..... and do you reckon also that some buyers just want their name in lights for their extravagant bidding?

Or maybe there's a third option.  That there's a lil arrangement btwn the two ..... and everyone goes away happy and with egos suitably inflated .... ;)

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I must be missing something but I fail to see the point of these comments which can only be described as moronic. Why would you choose to criticise a breeder for sending a superbly bred mare to a horse recognised as one of the best to have ever raced.

Why do so many “small breeders” fail to recognise that to be a “commercial breeder” you must breed winners or you won’t be “commercial” for long!!

Pathetic jealousy at its worst.

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Greetings fitzy ... yes perhaps you are missing something ... such as the fact that sometimes that which costs the most does not turn out to be best!  Along the lines of all the glisters not being gold ...

LaZip can speak for himself but I thought at least part of his point was - that to sell something for big money at the yearling sales is success of itself to some.  Regardless whether that horse turns out to be a success on the racetrack.  To others the greater measure of success is producing (or buying) a successful racehorse.

And to some, success is to be named/famed as the person at the sales who spent the most or bought the highest price yearling.  To others - it would be to buy the most successful racehorses per dollar expended - bang for your buck if you like.

I'm sure there is room for each of these operators - and we can all choose who to support - or to emulate.

Kind wishes

Jealous, pathetic, moronic Jess.  

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1 hour ago, fitzy said:

I must be missing something but I fail to see the point of these comments which can only be described as moronic. Why would you choose to criticise a breeder for sending a superbly bred mare to a horse recognised as one of the best to have ever raced.

Why do so many “small breeders” fail to recognise that to be a “commercial breeder” you must breed winners or you won’t be “commercial” for long!!

Pathetic jealousy at its worst.

Well Fitzy you sound like you've never bred a race horse nor raced one....Everything I have bred has won...I have been buying/racing/breeding for over 40 years, on both sides of the Tasman.  Indeed, what I was alluding to is the highest priced stallion and/or flavour of the month is not necessarily the "right" choice for each and every mare, from a racehorse perspective...we all start out to breed the best we can from the resources we have.  Of course, IMHO, each to his own...as many of the pedigree buffs on this site will tell you, there is more to breeding a winner than just sending your mare to the leading stallions...so many other factors to take into account. So if that's moronic, then bravo to you!

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Think of the buyers that have come to view the horse that has been bred with this sexy pedigree, oh and the buyers that missed him and went and bought others off the back of missing out on buying him? You need pedigrees like this in the book to attract a buying bench. A son of Frankel who was the best racehorse in the world out of one of Australasia's best pedigrees. Certainly ticked that box! Everyone benefits by this. 

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2 hours ago, Belinda said:

And a horse with a pedigree like that has a future at stud. Unless your el cheapo with a very ordinary pedigree, is something akin to Phar Lap, he will never have a future at a top stud

So what is the objective? To breed a good racehorse or a horse with a stallion’s pedigree..?  As it turns out, Falvelon, Written Tycoon and lately, Spirit of Boom fall into the category of top class racehorses with ordinary pedigrees and I guess you could say, they’ve upgraded their page. 

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Winning Rupert from memory has no blacktype (apart from himself) within his first 5 generations

 

Written By who won the Blue Diamond on the weekend has none within 4 generations!

 

Just shows! You never know!, will be interesting if these 2 are successful at stud.

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1 hour ago, chevy86 said:

Immaterial--doesn't the mare contribute 80-85% of the progeny's ability?

Hard to really judge but i do agree that the female line is imperative.

How does that explain horses like Winning Rupert & Written By that have no depth of female family? (Apart from Written Tycoon being able to upgrade mares)

The complete unknown and unpredictable nature of breeding!

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14 hours ago, La Zip said:

So what is the objective? To breed a good racehorse or a horse with a stallion’s pedigree..?  As it turns out, Falvelon, Written Tycoon and lately, Spirit of Boom fall into the category of top class racehorses with ordinary pedigrees and I guess you could say, they’ve upgraded their page. 

I personally have only ever bred or bought "el cheapos" but many of the monied buyers are looking for something that has a future in the stallion barn even if it wasnt much of a racehorse. You must have seen stallions with great pedigrees but advertised at stud with wording along the lines of "unraced due to injury" or "lightly raced due to injury" I always wonder if they were unraced due to lack of ability, interest or trainability. You couldnt stand one at stud with no breeding of note and no ability and expect to get mares.

 

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13 hours ago, BruceL said:

Hard to really judge but i do agree that the female line is imperative.

How does that explain horses like Winning Rupert & Written By that have no depth of female family? (Apart from Written Tycoon being able to upgrade mares)

The complete unknown and unpredictable nature of breeding!

Probability of genetics 

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On 2/8/2018 at 9:19 AM, Breeder said:

Looking at yesterday's Randwick results and I see Tangmere ( 3 yr  Frankel - Our Echezeaux) finally wins a race. 1400mt A$43,500 stake. A $1.3 million purchase at Karaka.

It will be interesting to see what happens next. It may have had problems up till now, but running in a A$43.5k race seems to be a bit of a lowly start.

I love your line "finally" wins a race it's only had 4 starts 

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