RaceCafe..#1...Tipsters Thread.... Share Your Fancies For Fun...Lets See Who The Best Tipsters Here Are.
ivanthegreat

Smart Patch

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Had this marked as the bet of the day prior to hearing L O'Sullivan's comments during his interview with Des Coppins. this morning

Love to hear it again.................... Not the first time this fella has given Joe public the swerve AND it wont be the last.

Hope you made heaps and glad to see you've found that ole cow paddock again.

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I heard that interview also. The best of his horses today he said was clearly Show N Go who gets well beaten into fourth and the race was won by stablemate Slow Hands paying $11 on the tote. He is either a very poor judge or ..........

I was drinking at the local today with a mate who multied up his three Patch horses -  Jewel, Wisdom finishing with Smart for $50 to return $4150.  He was fidgety going into the third multi leg but 200 metres from the finish let out a roar as Smart went woosh and the race was over. Very impressive win.

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Yes, this is a bad look for an industry that’s already struggling with a credibility issue. 

I would suggest stewards / RIU need to have a bit of a chat with said trainer...not the partner but the senior license holder...leaves a very taste in punters mouth? You would need to think twice before considering any further investment re this stable but then again the “junior”partner perhaps forgot to tell the senior trainer how good the horse is? 

Also, it would be interesting to see the betting moves on this race although I’m guessing it was backed offshore. 

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How much does Lance actually know though? Although he is a part trainer it doesn't mean he knows any more about how the horses are actually going than the stable staff who are probably more hands on with the horses and could offer more insight.

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2 hours ago, WhoKnows said:

How much does Lance actually know though? Although he is a part trainer it doesn't mean he knows any more about how the horses are actually going than the stable staff who are probably more hands on with the horses and could offer more insight.

What a complete load of bollocks... :rolleyes:

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It's not the first example of this in my extensive experience and after reading the story below you'll see why I feel compelled to report this.

I was on a business trip to Hamilton about 7 or 8 years ago and after my only appointment went to the races getting there after race 2 from memory. I had a pie whilst flicking through the Best Bets ( as you do ) and after getting out of the car met the fella in the next car in the car park.  We had a good old chin wag covering everything topical to racing that year and after about half an hour he said he had to get going.

I said " do you fancy anything ? " he replied by saying " yeah my horse " It will win alright........ I said O'h thank you I'll throw a tener on it.

He replied by saying its probably worth more than that. Great !!

So I looked the horse up and it was first pick everywhere but I thought at least its not waiting for next week and the owner is backing it.

Horse absolutely bolted in like a top horse .

Later that afternoon I ran into the son of an old mate who came up and said hello. He said he had come to the course to back  a certain horse and after hearing the trainers comments backed something else. Guess what........ YOUV'E GOT IT . SAME HORSE.

That is why I am sensitised to the matter.

I for one would be very interested to see any betting patterns.

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Nothing for free in this world. If you want to know how well they are going consider changing routine to get up at 4am with a stopwatch and notebook :D

Figuring out which stables like a punt and who likes to try to put the punters away is part of the game. Where does it end up, a declaration of financial interests on each runner from owners amd trainers :blink:

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42 minutes ago, Sandpiper said:

Nothing for free in this world. If you want to know how well they are going consider changing routine to get up at 4am with a stopwatch and notebook :D

Figuring out which stables like a punt and who likes to try to put the punters away is part of the game. Where does it end up, a declaration of financial interests on each runner from owners amd trainers :blink:

Agree to a certain extent but I find Andrew Forsman always very honest with his assessments and usually bang on the money when labelling one with Pete and Alby on a Saturday morning. I also have heard that the Baker / Forsman stable is a big punting stable and Andrew Forsman is well on the way to a freehold house so not every trainer gives you the steer intentionally.

Shaune Ritchie is also always very honest.

Lance O'Sullivan clearly said on radio yesterday morning that Smart Patch would benefit from the run and he would be very surprised if it won. Now for the horse to come out and absolutely donkey lick a field that had a lot of smart trial form doesn't sit well with me.

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I heard the interview and backed Smart Patch ,Lucky me/I do not trust trainers giving winners on tv. I do remember running into A Scott at Paeroa just before Xmas one year and asked if he had a xmas winner told me one in the 3rd was a certain winner ,dead last stablemate won paying  $14.50 see my drift

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Surely the answer here is that if you like a horse go with it anyway regardless of what a trainer may or may not say. So much can happen during any given race that makes pre-race comments irrelevant.

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2 hours ago, gubellini said:

Bit of paranoia creeping into this thread. I heard the interview with Lance en route to Matamata yesterday. I found his answers to questions  posed well thought out and honest. Memo to anyone thinking he was giving the swerve on any of his horses- GET A LIFE!

With due respect I am only interested in this one horse , I am pleased others heard the interview as well.

There is no need to conduct yourself like Jack and Bill Winder these days we have Fixed Odds Betting so after you have the loot on tell the bloody world. Without the punters there is no farting race industry.

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ivanthegreat take your blinkers off and remove the patch from your eye! Smart Patch had failed to win any of his three trials.He drew 1 which sometimes is not the best draw for an inexperienced horse in its debut. Lance wasn’t hiding anything from the public! He gave an honest assessment of the horses chance. Horses can make liars of you!

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In a contrast, earlier this morning Tom Davernig from Lindsay Park was asked what was the stable’s best for the day and he quickly said, Jacinquot Bay, a 10YO that hasn’t won in a little while...and duly saluted...

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he  said that because hes got better things in store  and probably more ground he couldn't help that he got soft rin and  killed them  ,  no a few in race   that were left shaking there heads from there horses  to but  if you think that needs reporting  hmm  bangs head 

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15 minutes ago, gubellini said:

Tool no. 1 you are wrong! Smart Patch won his debut yesterday by 5 lengths. Mainbrace only ran third in his debut on 1/10/49 at Te Aroha beaten three lengths by the Dead Heaters The Unicorn and Correspond.

No sir you are wrong. I didn't say like Mainbrace having it's first start I was talking about Mainbrace when it beat The Unicorn in the Avondale Guineas as the second favourite a week later.

First start Mainbrace was as big as a bull, Jack wasn't trying very hard and the horse came back to scale blowing his head off.

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Tool no 1 sorry to be pedantic but Mainbrace’s second start was in the 2yo Welcome Stakes at Ellerslie on 8/10/49.He won by five lengths from Correspond and Nom De Plume with The Unicorn fourth. He won the Avondale Guineas at his ninth start on 9/9/50 beating Zenith and Miss Kanui with The Unicorn fourth. I know it was a long time ago but you are re-inventing history.

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11 minutes ago, gubellini said:

Tool no 1 sorry to be pedantic but Mainbrace’s second start was in the 2yo Welcome Stakes at Ellerslie on 8/10/49.He won by five lengths from Correspond and Nom De Plume with The Unicorn fourth. He won the Avondale Guineas at his ninth start on 9/9/50 beating Zenith and Miss Kanui with The Unicorn fourth. I know it was a long time ago but you are re-inventing history.

Yes correct second start one week later won by 5 lengths as I said just like Smart Patch. I knew it beat The Unicorn just got the name of the race wrong which is the only thing I did get wrong as you have just proved by reading it from a book. I was going from memory.

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