RaceCafe..#1...Tipsters Thread.... Share Your Fancies For Fun...Lets See Who The Best Tipsters Here Are.
N1MUE

H2H bet of the day?

Recommended Posts

Could have a few today - first cab off the rank:

Ellerslie R1:  Swissilicious paying $1.85 to finish ahead of Morweka.  Nice win here over New year carnival and has a nice draw today.  Given a little freshen up and back in distance should suit.  Morweka is drawn out and I'm not a big fan of her jockey.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, N1MUE said:

Morweka is drawn out and I'm not a big fan of her jockey.

Closer than I would have preferred but they still payout on that.  Morweka's draw and jockey did the job for me.

Next bet is

Howboutdat paying $2.08 to finish ahead of Rosa Carolina in Race 5 at Ellerslie.   Taking a bit of a risk on the jockey match-up but Maija Vance just won on Howboutdat's half sister and she should give him a nice trip from that draw.  Trainer was interviewed after the first race and said Howboutdat is very well.  Rosa Carolina doesn't have a great second up record and I think she might prefer a little bit of sting out of the ground.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Better day yesterday and now 17 from 22 (77%) with a 45% cumulative profit.

In the first today at Gorrrrr I'm on Qashqai paying $1.85 to finish ahead of Our Boy Scotty.  They met back in early February and Qashqai finished half a length in front.  I also like the jockey match-up here.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, N1MUE said:

 

Betting against the fav based on its jockey.  

This is a very impressive thread majority of posts have given an in-depth reasoning to the above selections

Its always easy to converse with Harry H after the event but really John?

Lets hope the King never rides Winx then

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Race 4 Hawera

Rosetta paying $1.76 to finish ahead of Smokin Hot.  Two reasonable thirds in ok fields lately and appears to jump well so should get handy.  Smokin Hot only battled the last two runs and only gets 0.5kgs of the 2kgs it should otherwise get for putting a lesser jockey up.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

18 minutes ago, N1MUE said:

Race 4 Hawera

Rosetta paying $1.76 to finish ahead of Smokin Hot.  Two reasonable thirds in ok fields lately and appears to jump well so should get handy.  Smokin Hot only battled the last two runs and only gets 0.5kgs of the 2kgs it should otherwise get for putting a lesser jockey up.

:(

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Two losses in a row so time to right the ship:

Rotorua R4 Libretti paying $1.93 to finish ahead of Third Time Lucky.  Third Time Lucky is second up on a quick backup and might prefer it a bit wetter.  Libretti should get a nice trip and the jockey seems to ride well.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Right, that was better.  I've spotted two more I really like today:

Lubaya paying $1.85 to finish ahead of Paulownia in the Guineas at Trentham (R6).   I really like Lubaya as an each way chance in that field - two nice runs (admittedly in weaker fields) and third up should be perfect.  Nice draw and will be finishing over the top of them.  Paulownia 1 from 1 but that wasn't a great field and is drawn the outside.

Ferrando paying $1.85 to finish ahead of Heroic Valour in Race 7.  I'm keen on Ferrando to win this race - likes Trentham, nice little freshen up and jogged in at the recent trial.  Matt Cameron enjoying his day at Trentham so far.  HV is a good horse but also drawn out a bit.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Lubaya not good (sorry Lay Mis) but Ferrando better.  One more for the day:

Toms paying $2.01 to finish ahead of Awesome Al in the last.   Awesome Al on a quick back-up from last week and based on its record, 1400m might be a bit too far.  Toms to finish over the top of Al.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Only one from three last week - reverting to the mean?

Today in the Ranvet, Classic Uniform paying $1.70 to finish ahead of Consensus.  Consensus hasn't run for a month and is taking on Ozzie group form on a track that probably won't suit.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Four losses in a row and eating in to the profit margin - time to be a bit more selective.  Found one in the next (R4) at Pukekohe.  

Silver Cloud paying $1.85 to finish ahead of Cinematic.  Silver Cloud doesn't win often but is super consistent.  Cinematic's stable going well today but this one is second up and has a jockey who appears to be first up - first raceday ride from what I can tell.  Anything can happen with the 4kgs claim but more often than not, it's not so good.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.