Bugga!

[Iraklis 2,231]

Job too big for Lazzie last night bumma, but thats ok lost small battle, we are after winnin the war The Machete yusssss! oops for the rest..........roll on the rest of the heats GO KIWI GO KIWI GOOOOOOO KIWI!!!!!!

Great to see we are gettin Inters back somethin like ol days scenario yeh boy!

 

Cheers Iraklis

[harewood 477]

8 hours ago, Iraklis said:

Great to see we are gettin Inters back somethin like ol days scenario yeh boy

Yes the future of the IDs has been confirmed. Thank goodness the  one race final that we saw a Menangle for a few years has been scrapped. Auckland 2019 and Christchurch 2022               

 http://www.harness.org.au/media-room/news-article?news_id=35477

 

 

[Iraklis 2,231]

Another flying 2nd for Lazzie all good  Mark didn't knock him around he came at TigerT near the end, but gawd his job from those draws are a frickn killer.....The Faith ran home better (sorry guys he's me personal fav) onwards an upwards to Fri.......cant wait for Inters in Aucks yussss!

 

Cheers Iraklis

 

 

[Alan B 41]

On 11/25/2017 at 0:10 PM, harewood said:

Yes the future of the IDs has been confirmed. Thank goodness the  one race final that we saw a Menangle for a few years has been scrapped. Auckland 2019 and Christchurch 2022               

 http://www.harness.org.au/media-room/news-article?news_id=35477

 

 

I fully agree the one race final was demeaning to the history and heritage of the event. Thankfully when it came back to Perth the powers changed it back to a series event, what it was set up to be. It is a shame though it is not marketed better perhaps like the racing carnivals, why not put it on free to air TV?

[Iraklis 2,231]

Geezuz Lazzie cant take a trick in the draws over there, or The Faith either, 7 and 9 respectively in same race for Fri.......nuts nuts nuts n sodding nuts!!! is all I can say......

 

Cheers Iraklis

[Kotare_Hunter 748]

8 minutes ago, Iraklis said:

Geezuz Lazzie cant take a trick in the draws over there, or The Faith either, 7 and 9 respectively in same race for Fri.......nuts nuts nuts n sodding nuts!!! is all I can say......

 

Cheers Iraklis

Saving the good marble for the final.

[Iraklis 2,231]

Kotare, I like your style

Flag U, if Mark P gets Nat over to drive The Faith (she has been known to get best from him and then some) hey even if it is 'weak heat' and both those Kiwis rip into it and kick ass, you'll hear me shoutin the bloody house down from Aucks!!!!

 

Cheers Iraklis

[CosmicBlackie 128]

58 minutes ago, Iraklis said:

Geezuz Lazzie cant take a trick in the draws over there, or The Faith either, 7 and 9 respectively in same race for Fri.......nuts nuts nuts n sodding nuts!!! is all I can say......

 

Cheers Iraklis

I think HFIM out of The Inters now.

[Overcheck 190]

55 minutes ago, Kotare_Hunter said:

Saving the good marble for the final.

I doubt it. NZ horses seldom get a good draw in the big money races in Australia. Hope I am wrong though.

[Iraklis 2,231]

Have Faith Overcheck! they could stuff up the draw and we could get a good one   

CosmicB yeh The Faith may not have enough points to make it in, but that don't stop him showin up Fri and givin the race a bloody good shake anyway!!!

 

Cheers Iraklis

[JackSprat 947]

On paper the final heat with Lazarus in it looks to be the weakest heat of the series, and his to lose - which I don't think he will.

The final will be a belter no matter how the draws work out. The Aussies in general are far more aggressive drivers than NZers, and the West Australians are another step up again. Lazarus will get no favours in the final even if he draws to lead. He doesn't possess great gate speed, so the opposition drivers will be out to exploit that "apparent weakness" from the word go, and they'll be even more aggressive now that they've been shown how to beat him ... twice.

The other thing making life more difficult for him in Perth is that he has no "friends" to help him out. In fact come final night, he'll have 9 high class "enemies", with at least half of them capable of running a 54 second or better half with the right run, and none of them prepared to die wondering!

Have Faith In Me was never going to handle Gloucester Park racing, and so it has proved. The back half of the field is probably his lot again on Friday night.

[Iraklis 2,231]

JSpratSo , so how were they shown how to beat Lazzie? oh I see your mean the draws, ahh gotcha.....hmmmmmm

 

Cheers Iraklis

[globederby12 1,495]

I have to admit it was never going to be easy off wide draws for Lazarus, but that run last night on a 1.52 mile rate was massive when taken into perspective.

I just hope come final night its handlebars down by Mark and we see a true stayers run. Sitting back wont cut the mustard.

 

[harewood 477]

7 hours ago, Iraklis said:

Geezuz Lazzie cant take a trick in the draws over there, or The Faith either, 7 and 9 respectively in same race for Fri.......nuts nuts nuts n sodding nuts!!! is all I can say......

 

Cheers Iraklis

They did the draw for friday night on live radio this morning with the CEO of the Perth IDs He explained that they keep the three top seeds separated untill the final and then throw the others up in the air (so to speak) to make up the fields. It is unfortunate that Purdons two are in the same race but Gary Hall has the same happen in the first race with both of his together. So there is no conspiracy going on. Three wide draws for Laz so the odds in his favor now for a good one in the final.

 

3 hours ago, JackSprat said:

The other thing making life more difficult for him in Perth is that he has no "friends" to help him out. In fact come final night, he'll have 9 high class "enemies", with at least half of them capable of running a 54 second or better half with the right run, and none of them prepared to die wondering!

No one has "friends" when your running for a mill. They are all running for them selves and will be watching each other not just Laz. The pace will be hectic with a lot of the field liking to be in front. Non of these will be capable of running a last half in 54 over 2900 which is probably more like 3400 when you factor in the mobile start and the speed they will leave the gate. To my mind there are only two who can win Lazarus and Chicago Bull. Both are great stayers and will stay out the trip while the others will be gasping  from the 600. There is only one way Lenny ,Soho or Tiger can win and that is if they are left in front with no attackers.AND THAT AINT GOIN TO HAPPEN!

For those wanting to have a go on Fri the connections of San Carlo have been waiting for  draw and are confident of leading all the way. 

Go LAZ

[N1MUE 1,877]

21 minutes ago, harewood said:

Three wide draws for Laz so the odds in his favor now for a good one in the final.

No offence Harewood but this is a classic example of the gambler's fallacy - the odds of him getting a good draw in the final are in no way influenced by his draws in the heats.

The gambler's fallacy, also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy or the fallacy of the maturity of chances, is the belief that, if something happens more frequently than normal during some period, it will happen less frequently in the future, or that, if something happens less frequently than normal during some period, it will happen more frequently in the future (presumably as a means of balancing nature). In situations where what is being observed is truly random (i.e., independent trials of a random process), [eg. random barrier draw] this belief, though appealing to the human mind, is false. This fallacy can arise in many practical situations, but is most strongly associated with gambling, where such mistakes are common among players.

[harewood 477]

57 minutes ago, N1MUE said:

No offence Harewood but this is a classic example of the gambler's fallacy - the odds of him getting a good draw in the final are in no way influenced by his draws in the heats

Getting a bit too technical for me Nimue

Just a simple observation that hes had three bad draws and about time for a good one. Not trying to rewrite the law of odds. 

The more times you flip a coin the closer you will get to 50% head/tails 

[N1MUE 1,877]

7 hours ago, harewood said:

The more times you flip a coin the closer you will get to 50% head/tails 

Yes that is true. 

However if three tosses in a row have come up Heads, the probability of flipping Tails on the next toss is still 50%.

[Iraklis 2,231]

Oh guys please, sod the frickn sodding coin toss! its not doin my nerves any good (geezuz its only 7.26am thurs and I could do with a drink already at this rate I'll never make it to Fri)    Lazzie and The Faith (yes! and The Faith he's still ours) got a job to do on Fri and I for one hope the boys rip right through it!!!!!

GOOOOO!!!!! LAZZIE BUILT KIWI TOUGH!!!!! GOOOO THE FAITH!!!!! LETS BE SEEIN YUH MATE COME ON NOW!!!!!

 

Cheers Iraklis

[chelseacol 2,488]

1 hour ago, N1MUE said:

Yes that is true. 

However if three tosses in a row have come up Heads, the probability of flipping Tails on the next toss is still 50%.

I'm a bit of a roulette junkie - always amuses me people looking at the electronic boards on each table, and gamblers wandering around with cards they write results in....

[Basil 333]

1 hour ago, N1MUE said:

Yes that is true. 

However if three tosses in a row have come up Heads, the probability of flipping Tails on the next toss is still 50%.

That too is true.  The confusion arises because you're arguing about two different concepts.

The *unconditional* probability of getting four heads in a row is (.5)^4 = 0.0625.  The *conditional* probability of getting a head, given that three heads have previously come up, is 0.5.

Things are a bit more complicated with barrier draws of course, as there are more than two possible outcomes, but the same general principle applies.

[Iraklis 2,231]

Harewood, I know bout 2 horses in same race (no conspiracy) yes, but both gettin draws right on the outside in same race......hmmmmmm

 

Cheers Iraklis

[globederby12 1,495]

14 hours ago, harewood said:

They did the draw for friday night on live radio this morning with the CEO of the Perth IDs He explained that they keep the three top seeds separated untill the final and then throw the others up in the air (so to speak) to make up the fields. It is unfortunate that Purdons two are in the same race but Gary Hall has the same happen in the first race with both of his together. So there is no conspiracy going on. Three wide draws for Laz so the odds in his favor now for a good one in the final.

 

No one has "friends" when your running for a mill. They are all running for them selves and will be watching each other not just Laz. The pace will be hectic with a lot of the field liking to be in front. Non of these will be capable of running a last half in 54 over 2900 which is probably more like 3400 when you factor in the mobile start and the speed they will leave the gate. To my mind there are only two who can win Lazarus and Chicago Bull. Both are great stayers and will stay out the trip while the others will be gasping  from the 600. There is only one way Lenny ,Soho or Tiger can win and that is if they are left in front with no attackers.AND THAT AINT GOIN TO HAPPEN!

For those wanting to have a go on Fri the connections of San Carlo have been waiting for  draw and are confident of leading all the way. 

Go LAZ

After watching last year Paul, I have  to agree about Chicago Bull. He has grown into a mean stayer alright. 

Has Tabcorp pulled yr name out of the hat again this year.?. If not hope you are still enjoying it for a second time around mate. 

[Alan B 41]

17 hours ago, N1MUE said:

Yes that is true. 

However if three tosses in a row have come up Heads, the probability of flipping Tails on the next toss is still 50%.

Very true all these conspiracy theories about NZ horses in Australia consistently getting wide barrier draws is fallacy to me!

[Iraklis 2,231]

Alan B, have another look at your post mate.......it don't make sense! huh! have you never heard of the term 'visitors draw' where you think that came from??

 

Cheers Iraklis

[N1MUE 1,877]

46 minutes ago, Iraklis said:

Alan B, have another look at your post mate.......it don't make sense! huh! have you never heard of the term 'visitors draw' where you think that came from??