RaceCafe..#1...Tipsters Thread.... Share Your Fancies For Fun...Lets See Who The Best Tipsters Here Are.
Berri

Worst Ever

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41 minutes ago, Chris Wood said:

Nowhere near the normal Northern horse representation as the logistics of the travel put paid to that. Flights both ways would change things, but then again, it was good to see the Southern trainers reap the rewards.

Maybe time to bring the two 3yo races a North.

That isn't really a silly suggestion sadly. The number of SI runners in both guineas each year is very poor. Also the SI runners in the various stayers races is very poor. Sadly I can see no evidence of the Industry doing anything to rectify these problems. 

The poor representation in the guineas is largely down to a poor structure of 2yo racing in the south, which means very few horses with 2yo form are set for Riccarton. Also there are no early season 3yo races in Otago or Southland to create a bit of form and get connections excited about going to Riccarton.

The staying races are a big worry. Once again no early season leadup races in the deeper south. I also think a better pattern of spring hurdle races might help. Currently all jumps racing in the south ends with Grand National week.  A series of spring hurdles races on better tracks would produce good races in themselves and might get some connections thinking of the NZ Cup. It seems to work with European horses heading for Melbourne. What about a 2,500m rating 80 at the Oct meeting at Riccarton; the poor man's Bart Cummings. Currently there is no evidence that anyone is doing anything to fix systemic problems.

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On 11/18/2017 at 8:09 AM, Berri said:

Jeez you blokes with pseudonyms test my mad cow. 

I'll wager that the betting will be down from last year. Prom Queen dominates the betting game in the Guineas, and I can see a couple of other races that have obvious favourites 

I don't quite follow your logic. You suggest betting figures will be down because there are three hot favourites on the day (thank god you don't follow trotting) and yet you criticise the bigger attractive betting fields because of their lack of quality, and you didn't rate Prom Queen anyhow. As it turned out, other than the 2yo race the hot favs turned out to be false favs so there was certainly value for some.

And really Riccarton didn't do too bad when you look at the ordinary lot that turned out for the Group II at Tauranga. And wait until you see the fields that turn up for the Group 1s at Otaki and elsewhere. It isn't just a SI problem.

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5 minutes ago, Tiger Tiger said:

Total meeting turnover (on and off course) for the first two meetings (11th and 15th November) of the Week was up about 350k on last year. There was one more race this year over the two days than last year

Thanks Tiger, always very helpful

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1 hour ago, Chris Wood said:

Nowhere near the normal Northern horse representation as the logistics of the travel put paid to that. Flights both ways would change things, but then again, it was good to see the Southern trainers reap the rewards.

Maybe time to bring the two 3yo races a North.

Why?

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I was very interested to see what the final betting figures were like because it looked to me that there were a number of probable winners/ good performers that may have reduced the betting because they looked obvious. Set aside the vagrencies of outsiders winning. I didn't know whether betting would go up or down but my thought was that it would not increase from last year. I obviously can't now see last years fields 

we are now told they are up. That's good because we need everything we can get 

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2 hours ago, Chris Wood said:

Nowhere near the normal Northern horse representation as the logistics of the travel put paid to that. Flights both ways would change things, but then again, it was good to see the Southern trainers reap the rewards.

Maybe time to bring the two 3yo races a North.

Why don't you take the NZ Cup up there too. Plus the Valachi Downs and Stewards and Trotting Cup

Just gut the week and turn it into a normal race meeting....

Guess you are thinking the same with Melbourne Cup being run at the Curragh ?

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2 hours ago, Berri said:

I was very interested to see what the final betting figures were like because it looked to me that there were a number of probable winners/ good performers that may have reduced the betting because they looked obvious. Set aside the vagrencies of outsiders winning. I didn't know whether betting would go up or down but my thought was that it would not increase from last year. I obviously can't now see last years fields 

we are now told they are up. That's good because we need everything we can get 

There may well be "vagrencies" around Berri, but the word you probably meant was "vagaries".....;)

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5 hours ago, chelseacol said:

Why don't you take the NZ Cup up there too. Plus the Valachi Downs and Stewards and Trotting Cup

Just gut the week and turn it into a normal race meeting....

Guess you are thinking the same with Melbourne Cup being run at the Curragh ?

Ironic really - Ellerslie broke all the traditions, rescheduled into two Auckland Cups and that worked NOT, they can't handle Canterbury success story, year after year

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9 hours ago, Chris Wood said:

Nowhere near the normal Northern horse representation as the logistics of the travel put paid to that. Flights both ways would change things, but then again, it was good to see the Southern trainers reap the rewards.

Maybe time to bring the two 3yo races a North.

Logic might say that Chris but given the unreliable weather in your locale those races might well have been run on slow 8 or worse tracks if they had been run at this time of year.  Whilst Embellish and Hasahalo may have been first starters in the South Te Akau in particular have a protocol(and a successful one) of bringing their horses south early to take advantage of the superior weather and tracks in the leadup.  That is very much a two sided argument.

And whatever happened I would like to know what horse which stayed North would have strengthened those fields.  Or indeed over the years an instance of a serious contender who did not travel. 

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18 hours ago, We're Doomed said:

That isn't really a silly suggestion sadly. The number of SI runners in both guineas each year is very poor. Also the SI runners in the various stayers races is very poor. Sadly I can see no evidence of the Industry doing anything to rectify these problems. 

The poor representation in the guineas is largely down to a poor structure of 2yo racing in the south, which means very few horses with 2yo form are set for Riccarton. Also there are no early season 3yo races in Otago or Southland to create a bit of form and get connections excited about going to Riccarton.

The staying races are a big worry. Once again no early season leadup races in the deeper south. I also think a better pattern of spring hurdle races might help. Currently all jumps racing in the south ends with Grand National week.  A series of spring hurdles races on better tracks would produce good races in themselves and might get some connections thinking of the NZ Cup. It seems to work with European horses heading for Melbourne. What about a 2,500m rating 80 at the Oct meeting at Riccarton; the poor man's Bart Cummings. Currently there is no evidence that anyone is doing anything to fix systemic problems.

Good points.

Two year old racing has a terrible structure down here,  there used to be numerous opportunities away from stakes races but now there is little incentive to have a two year old in training apart from educational purposes.

Even the time-honoured McLean Stakes,  run early { October I think } at Wingatui got the chop - Princess Mellay comes to mind as one of the good horses who competed - the two year old parade run at National time was often held in divisions....and yes,  the early season staying races also underwhelming.

It baffles me that Riccarton,  with it's ability to easily run 2500m races,  consistently 'dumbs down' open handicaps to 1800m .

Agree re. spring hurdles too.

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2 hours ago, Pam Robson said:

Good points.

Two year old racing has a terrible structure down here,  there used to be numerous opportunities away from stakes races but now there is little incentive to have a two year old in training apart from educational purposes.

Even the time-honoured McLean Stakes,  run early { October I think } at Wingatui got the chop - Princess Mellay comes to mind as one of the good horses who competed - the two year old parade run at National time was often held in divisions....and yes,  the early season staying races also underwhelming.

It baffles me that Riccarton,  with it's ability to easily run 2500m races,  consistently 'dumbs down' open handicaps to 1800m .

Agree re. spring hurdles too.

My word, this is the first time anyone has actually been interested in any of my rants about structural problems, let alone agreed with them. I think it is largely beyond the area of interest for most people.

You are correct about the McLean Stakes, I remember it well. Otago has also dumped the Champagne Stakes on Boxing day, which used to be the major SI summer 2yo race and got good fields most years. Neither Otago nor Southland run any 2yo races during their Cup carnivals in Feb. Although interestingly Otago has introduced a low grade 2yo race at their mid Dec meeting.  In Canterbury the time honoured (that is a way of saying retains some prestige despite the poor stake) Haldon Stakes no longer exists, and I don't think there is any 2yo race in the SI for fillies only, nor any 2yo race further than 1,200m. So programming is very boring.

And I too have always been intrigued that the CJC runs more meetings with no race further than 1,800m than any other club in the country, including at their next meeting. No wonder the ranks of stayers were so poor at the Cup meeting.

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1 minute ago, We're Doomed said:

My word, this is the first time anyone has actually been interested in any of my rants about structural problems, let alone agreed with them. I think it is largely beyond the area of interest for most people.

You are correct about the McLean Stakes, I remember it well. Otago has also dumped the Champagne Stakes on Boxing day, which used to be the major SI summer 2yo race and got good fields most years. Neither Otago nor Southland run any 2yo races during their Cup carnivals in Feb. Although interestingly Otago has introduced a low grade 2yo race at their mid Dec meeting.  In Canterbury the time honoured (that is a way of saying retains some prestige despite the poor stake) Haldon Stakes no longer exists, and I don't think there is any 2yo race in the SI for fillies only, nor any 2yo race further than 1,200m. So programming is very boring.

And I too have always been intrigued that the CJC runs more meetings with no race further than 1,800m than any other club in the country, including at their next meeting. No wonder the ranks of stayers were so poor at the Cup meeting.

Pam and yourself certainly make a lot of sense in your posts on this topic.

I would hate to think that this isn't being considered by the powers that be - needs long term thinking and commitment though (ie they will probably have small field sizes for a year or three) until it gets traction

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