Catalano

Melbourne Cup thoughts

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Here's my summary - let's be hearing what the intelligentsia of the 'cafe think :)

I'll be boxing 

Marmelo

Single Gaze

Red Cardinal

Johannes Vermeer

Bondi Beach

Almandin

Hartnell – Ran third in this last year, when in great form. He’s not going as well this year, and has to carry another 1.5kg. Nope.

Almandin – Was ridden well to win last year, but goes up 4.5kg on that effort this year. This time last year he went into the race off the back of a good win, whereas his last start this year was a slogging 4th. Plus he has one of the best jockeys in the World, Frankie Dettori, who becomes the World’s worst jockey when he’s in a Melbourne Cup. He’s the favourite, but not good value.

Humidor – He’s classy, but also a bit of an air-head and does a lot wrong. He’s had a couple of starts at 2400m and failed both times – so he’s going to struggle at 3200m, especially after a gut-buster last start where he nearly got past the World’s best horse, Winx – after that, she’s having a rest, and poor old Humidor has to tackle a two mile race? I reckon, if he’s not going well enough, they won’t bash him around, as he’s got a lot ahead of him next year, so he’s actually a good chance to finish last.

Tiberian – Well performed Frenchy, but he hasn’t had a start in Australia, and to win without a start in the country has been unsuccessfully tried 97 times since Vintage Crop in ‘93, so nope.

Marmelo – Streaked home in the Caulfield Cup, has form to 3000m in the Prix Kergolay, historically a good form race for this, has a good jockey – ticks all the boxes and will be finishing so fast he'll be giving them windburn - safely in the top two.

Red Cardinal – A strong two-miler. But he hasn’t had a race in Australia (see above), battled a bit in his last start, and is drawn 24. Won’t win, might fill a place.

Johannes Vermeer – Form in top-notch European races. Big run in the Caulfield Cup, drawn to get a nice trip on the rails, very classy and will go close. 

Bondi Beach – Has had two cracks at this for a 16th and a 13th when well backed. He had excuses, and he also travelled from Ireland those times, whereas this time he stayed in Australia. They’ve put blinkers on him, and he’s drawn the 1 barrier with one of NZ’s best jocks on board. He was good enough to win the St Leger (lost it on protest) in the UK - At his best, he can win this, possible boilover.

Max Dynamite – 2nd in this race in 2015, but he’s old, hasn’t had a start in Australia this campaign and he’s been running around in hurdles. There's a bit of a whisper that he's been working very well, but has never won a race on a good track, and that's what he'll get today.

Ventura Storm – He’s not bad, and will get the distance. Ran a cracker two starts back against Winx, but didn’t back that effort up in the Caulfield Cup, where he reportedly pulled up mildly lame, so must have missed some work. I’ll be leaving him out. 

Wicklow Brave – He’s 9 years old. No 9yo has ever won this. He’s had 7 wins over two miles, but the last of those was in a hurdle, and his run in the Caulfield Cup did not inspire confidence for this. It’s a fine line between brave and stupid, and you would be crossing it if you backed him.

Big Duke – Did run 3rd in the Sydney Cup, but that was on a heavy track. Could only manage 4th in a slow Moonee Valley Cup (when I had some hard-earned on him) against an average lot. Nope.

US Army Ranger – Seriously, this is the best example of ‘cultural cringe’ from our Aussie friends. Apparently just because he’s come a long way, he deserves a start. He won his first two career starts, and hasn’t won anything since in 10 subsequent races, culminating in beating nothing home at his last start. The ambulance will be tooting at him to get a move on.

Boom Time – Covered no extra ground in a great Caulfield Cup ride by Kiwi Cory Parish. But an 11th (beaten 31 lengths!) at his only try at 3200m, albeit on a wet track,  suggests he won’t be in the photo.

Gallante – Ran 20th in this last year, and has done nothing since. If it pours down (and it isn’t going to), he’s worth a dollar each-way, otherwise he’ll finish much closer to last than first.

Libran – He’s a good honest horse, has been placed in a Sydney Cup, and ran a nice race last start with the look of a horse that is ready to run two miles. Not impossible to see him in the finish, a good roughie.

Nakeeta – Won his first race for 2 years at his last start, but hasn’t had a run in Australia, and a trainer who is a novice to the Cup. Nope.

Single Gaze – She’s a tough wee mare, who ran an absolute cracker in the Caulfield Cup. She has textbook form going into the Cup, good draw, very good jockey, but the query is her ability to go two miles – breeding suggested she wouldn’t go a strong 2400m and she did - breeding doesn’t always stop them. She’s at about $50 – giddy up!

Wall of Fire – Was strong at his last two starts, but has had two cracks at 3200m, beaten 9 lengths and 6 lengths, and that suggests he’ll struggle.

Thomas Hobson – A strong contender… for last. He’s a hurdler who could run the course twice, but slowly.

Rekindling – Not the worst and will certainly get the distance, but he hasn’t started in Australia, is young (still only 3) and inexperienced, and could be one to watch out for next year.

Amelie’s Star – If not for her poor run in the Caulfield Cup, she’d be one of the favourites. She wasn’t ridden to suit, so maybe forget that and remember that her mum is by Zabeel, and she beat Almandin at her previous start. So yeah, could go OK.

Cismontane – A kiwi-bred who scraped into the race by narrowly beating an average lot on Saturday. The two she beat would be at over $100 if they were in the race. Yeah nah.

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Haven't given it much thought but i will be a contrarian and pick 

U S Army Ranger to win followed by Marmelo and Rekindling.

Gallante and Bondi Beach to have a race for last.

Now off for what has been described as minor surgery,however whenever a man in a mask with a scalpel in his hand comes near me i reckon it becomes major.

Adios for a while.

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39 minutes ago, Mattski said:

I like Marmelo and Almandin. But I hope Trumpy pulls off his multi with Wall of Fire!

Good luck to all.

Good call Mattski - go Trump - very live chance.

 

I like the M & A quinella too, but will be going very wide around them in first 4's and seeing what happens.

 

Some great betting races on the undercard.

Land of Plenty in the 3rd. Swampland in the last at double figures is a great EW bet.

As is yulong Xingsheng in the 6th at $18

And how about Chelsea Blue in the first at Otago :ph34r:

 

Have a great day all

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Not getting the same confidence this year about any runners like I had with Almandin and Protectionist in the years they won. Marmelo profiles closest just have a nagging suspicion he'll run out of racetrack after they muddle around up front for some of the race.

Haven't been able to make a strong case for anything outside the top end of the market on form. Will banker Johannes Vermeer in the obligatory shot at a first four.

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Yes let's not forget lots of horses have gone close like Heartbreak City and Red Cad with no lead-up run in Aus. I do wonder why more Euro trainers don't give them one lead up though. Maybe they don't want to risk a lead-up on firm tracks?

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I reckon Team Williams will have Almandin trained to the minute Cat. Would love to see him go back to back, extra weight and all.

Rekindling looks to have plenty of quality, though being 3 is a handicap. Williams have got it in at the right weight and some serious money has gone on, presumably from those in the know. Corey Brown a plus, but might be a year too soon.

Marmelo the obvious. Think Hartnell has been set for this all year too, but don't like it personally.

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9 hours ago, chelseacol said:

Good call Mattski - go Trump - very live chance.

 

I like the M & A quinella too, but will be going very wide around them in first 4's and seeing what happens.

 

Some great betting races on the undercard.

Land of Plenty in the 3rd. Swampland in the last at double figures is a great EW bet.

As is yulong Xingsheng in the 6th at $18

And how about Chelsea Blue in the first at Otago :ph34r:

 

Have a great day all

No go with Chelsea Blue but a special 1 nil win over the Scum

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11 hours ago, Catalano said:

 

Thomas Hobson – A strong contender… for last. He’s a hurdler who could run the course twice, but slowly.

 

Run of the race for me the way the race went. Last on the turn and looked anything but a hurdler the last 400 metres.  

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Don't have a clue about gallopers.  But was given a tip for Johannes whats-his-name from a harness luminary that apparently came from a gallops luminary.

O me miserum.

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15 hours ago, Tauhei Notts said:

Gallante in from 100 to 70 to one.

There must have been a few bob on this no-hoper to force that.

That was probably your money

7 hours ago, Tauhei Notts said:

Rekindling; the first three year old to win since Skipton in about 1941.

 

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13 hours ago, globederby12 said:

That was two of you who would  have been a year too late with Rekindling. Great ride by Cory, from the same town as my wife who knew his family when growing up in Wingham.

Didn't miss it Globe. Had a good bet on him and got a small slice of the quaddie too. If Second Bullet had got up, I'd be long gone....:D

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12 hours ago, Tool no. 1 said:

Run of the race for me the way the race went. Last on the turn and looked anything but a hurdler the last 400 metres

Yeah, I was a little unfair on TH, but in my defence I didn't get to look at the field properly until Monday night and I booted up my PC when I got home from work, and was promptly told 'Your PC is updating, this may take some time', so I watched a movie with the missus and then went back to it, restarted, 'Updates are being installed, this may take some time'...

So anyway, by the time I got down to the 20's I was a bit over it! Hence I looked at Rekindling, saw he was actually a 3yo that had been up a long time, and moved on.

Marmelo was disappointing, but there doesn't appear to be too many hard-luck stories...

Here's what the jockey's said:

MELBOURNE CUP JOCKEYS’ COMMENTS

Corey Brown (Rekindling) 1st : “I’ve been back from overseas for about nine months, slowly but surely getting back to where I was, but I can’t believe it. Honestly it’s so special, I’ve got my family down here with me, the girls, they’re old enough to come to the races now and enjoy it. I’m lost for words, I can’t believe I did it again.”

Ben Melham (Johannes Vermeer) 2nd : “We had a great run throughout. I was spending my money at the furlong, I thought we were home, but just the weight was the difference.”

Zac Purton (Max Dynamite) 3rd : “An excellent run. He was very brave. He took a tight run when I asked him to and when I got through there, I thought we were in for the fight but he’s a bit old now … but he was terrific.”

Brenton Avdulla (Big Duke) 4th : “He was awesome. We had a perfect run and I was following Corey (Brown) through and I thought I was half a chance, the nerves started to kick up a bit … a bit of excitement on the corner but he ran out of gas in the straight.”

Glyn Schofield (Nakeeta) 5th : “Super run. He just kept coming strongly.”

Ben Allen (Thomas Hobson) 6th : “He just didn’t pick up the bridle at all early. I thought he ran really well.”

Olivier Peslier (Tiberian) 7th : “In the straight he was coming well but in the last 200 (metres) he was immediately beaten.”

Dwayne Dunn (Libran) 8th : “He ran really well … as good as he could run.”

Hugh Bowman (Marmelo) 9th : “I expected a bit more. I had to make a little bit of use of him early but I was in a nice position throughout and he relaxed well. The pressure built a little earlier than I would have liked but I thought he would have taken me a bit further.”

Stephen Baster (Wicklow Brave) 10th : “He ran well. He just didn’t have any early speed at all so he got back last and he didn’t get going until the 650 (metres) but he ran home good.”

Kerrin McEvoy (Red Cardinal) 11th : “We made nice progression round the corner then I got into the clear and he just probably felt the ground the last furlong and a half.”

Frankie Dettori (Almandin) 12th : “I was stuck three-wide but the horse was flat. He never carried me today and ran like a flat horse.”

Beau Mertens (Cismontane) 13th : “Happy with the performance … a lot of good horses finished in front of him but he did the best he could.”

Dean Yendall (Amelie’s Star) 14th : “I thought there’d be a more genuine tempo. I got stuck out a bit and I would have liked to have had a bit more cover. “

Cory Parish (Boom Time) 15th : “It was probably just too slow a tempo for him. He’s probably better suited at a mile and a half.”

Craig Williams (Wall Of Fire) 16th : “It was a bit of a muddling stop-start race and I thought my horse responded really well under those conditions. He came off the bridle at the 700 which is normally to his liking … but he didn’t stay on at all today. He just didn’t run up to his European form.”

Kathy O’Hara (Single Gaze) 17th : “She got knocked around a lot in the race and never had a lot of luck in running. She was brave enough to run on past a couple late but it was just too rough for her.”

Jamie Spencer (US Army Ranger) 18th : “He passed a few beaten ones but I never thought he’d win.”

Blake Shinn (Humidor) 19th : “He just doesn’t run two miles. I gave him a nice run throughout but the pressure went on and he just didn’t respond.”

Damian Lane (Hartnell) 20th : “He didn’t see it out today. He settled in a lovely rhythm and at the 400 (metres) I knew he wasn’t going to run (the distance) out.”

Glen Boss (Ventura Storm) 21st : “Had a good run in the race but I expect he got his tongue over the bit at some stage in the race and he choked down and didn’t run it out.”

Michael Walker (Bondi Beach) 22nd : “I don’t think his mind really wants to be there at the moment. He tried to run through the fence for the first 50 metres of the race.”

Michael Dee (Gallante) 23rd : “He was very disappointing. The track was obviously a little bit too dry for him but I didn’t expect him to go that badly.”

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21 minutes ago, Ohokaman said:

Didn't miss it Globe. Had a good bet on him and got a small slice of the quaddie too. If Second Bullet had got up, I'd be long gone....:D

We'll done Ohakason! I didn't back it but liked Rekindling. (Wanted WOF!). But I also managed 25% of the Quad, so $5k will keep the bank well oiled for Oaks day! :)

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5 hours ago, Lloyd Vivian said:

You were on to something Talk!! :) 

 

22 hours ago, talk said:

The assumption European horses cannot win without a start in Australia will be eventually be broken. Tiberian for me.

tony

Vintage Crop of course won without a lead up race in Oz also in 1993. Incidentally like Rekindling did this year, it also won the Curragh Cup that year.

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5 hours ago, rdytdy said:

 

Did barrier draws play a part?  

The first four home drew barriers 4, 3, 2 & 5 respectively.  

For sure. Rails bias all day similar but not as bad as 2015. Decent advantage to anything on the rail and then with the slow tempo too... 

The first two home make the top 4 from any gate imo. The rest, who knows.

I was surprised there was not a second or third wave pushing on at the start to find the rail.

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