Congrats Winx

[Berri 2,131]

2 hours ago, gary1 said:

if a horses optimal weight is say  1140 p would he race ok  say at 1160 or 1120

If the horse wins and you know its weight on the day of the race then you can use that as a benchmark. It could well be though that the optimal weight for its best performance is a different weight. Time will tell that

[Guest 2Admin2]

18 minutes ago, Berri said:

If the horse wins and you know its weight on the day of the race then you can use that as a benchmark. It could well be though that the optimal weight for its best performance is a different weight. Time will tell that

It would be wrong to use the win as a benchmark without considering the quality of the opposition.  You can measure fitness using other factors of which weight is only one.

[scooby3051 10,868]

37 minutes ago, 2Admin2 said:

It would be wrong to use the win as a benchmark without considering the quality of the opposition.  You can measure fitness using other factors of which weight is only one.

Like what??? Weight is one of the most important ones, studies prove it

 

[Guest 2Admin2]

Heart rate after exercise and time to normal resting rate.

Lactic acid build up - visible signs across the lower back.  Indicators in blood as well.

Muscle definition.  Fat measurement.

Using weight alone can be subjective.  For example a good horse could beat a field of average horses when 90% fit therefore using the horses weight as a benchmark at that point would be a nonsense.

Athlete physiology 101.

[scooby3051 10,868]

10 minutes ago, 2Admin2 said:

Heart rate after exercise and time to normal resting rate.

Lactic acid build up - visible signs across the lower back.  Indicators in blood as well.

Muscle definition.  Fat measurement.

Using weight alone can be subjective.  For example a good horse could beat a field of average horses when 90% fit therefore using the horses weight as a benchmark at that point would be a nonsense.

Athlete physiology 101.

What a load of text book bollocks... hahaha.

[100 1 1,386]

1 hour ago, Berri said:

If the horse wins and you know its weight on the day of the race then you can use that as a benchmark. It could well be though that the optimal weight for its best performance is a different weight. Time will tell that

If a horse wins it,s usually no better a performance than it,s other 20-30 starts ....the variables just change... track cond, pace, runs, weight, opposition, distance etc, etc

[Guest 2Admin2]

9 minutes ago, scooby3051 said:

What a load of text book bollocks... hahaha.

It may be in a text book but that doesn't negate its validity.  The stable I worked utilised those parameters.  

So when a trainer says "the horse is puffed up across its back" what does it mean?

I bet you Chris Waller didn't think or know that 526kg would be Winx's race weight this year.  It's higher than the previous two seasons.  So by a process of elimination Waller must be using other indicators to determine her fitness.

[scooby3051 10,868]

11 minutes ago, 2Admin2 said:

It may be in a text book but that doesn't negate its validity.  The stable I worked utilised those parameters.  

So when a trainer says "the horse is puffed up across its back" what does it mean?

I bet you Chris Waller didn't think or know that 526kg would be Winx's race weight this year.  It's higher than the previous two seasons.  So by a process of elimination Waller must be using other indicators to determine her fitness.

And what stable was that???  I would be interested to know.

[Guest 2Admin2]

What causes a horse to puff up across its lower back after a hard run?

[slam dunk 1,317]

Be it right or wrong I've heard numerous racing personalities themselves state that top jockeys don't necessarily make good trainers. One I recall on the TV being Malcolm Johnston.

I'd give Admin2 much more credence than you seem to Scooby. I've monitored Singapore horse weight for several years, there are numerous factors such as weight changes versus trainer then on top of that the reliability of the figures themselves. Theres been instances of horses going up 30kg and turning their form around. 

[Leggy 4,076]

While they are clearly a factor, I don't think raw body weight figures are actually much help. As P4P correctly pointed out, you also need to know whether any change is attributable to a difference due to muscle, fat, or fluids. 

To convince me, I'd need to see some correlation demonstrated between ideal body weight and performance with other form factors partialed out as far as possible, and over a large number of horses.

[scooby3051 10,868]

47 minutes ago, slam dunk said:

Be it right or wrong I've heard numerous racing personalities themselves state that top jockeys don't necessarily make good trainers. One I recall on the TV being Malcolm Johnston.

I'd give Admin2 much more credence than you seem to Scooby. I've monitored Singapore horse weight for several years, there are numerous factors such as weight changes versus trainer then on top of that the reliability of the figures themselves. Theres been instances of horses going up 30kg and turning their form around. 

Thats one you mention there are plenty more that are.....Scientifically monitored, please show the results of your years of study for all to see or otherwise its just your opinion..cheers.

[100 1 1,386]

Out of interest when does official weighing take place?  

Before/after food/water input/output

How much would a horse lose from the morning of a race till straight after the race when empty?  20 30 40lbs?

[100 1 1,386]

On 11/1/2017 at 8:26 AM, Trump said:

Looking back over these posts, I don't think I've ever read so much rubbish. I agree on one point and that is that horses with exceptional/more ability, seem to cope with weight increases more than others. But some of the comments are silly and make a mockery of very experienced and professional people. Take Lloyd Williams. Here's a guy who wins his "5th" Melbourne Cup with Almandin (2016 for the dummies), and says after the race that "the horse beat the handicapper". When people like Lloyd say that, then you have to believe that weight matters. When experienced analysts, for example Gary Crispe, say that "2kg is equal to 5 lengths" you have to believe that it means something. Trainers complain that "I'm scratching or not accepting because my horse has been weighted unfairly". It has to mean something. On the other hand, I'm quite comfortable to back a good top weight in a 1000/1200m Sprint. I don't think it matters so much. But in staying races, a good horse in on the lighter weight is favoured by me and according to judges I respect, it is a huge advantage. Then there's WFA, an entirely different proposition. That's when the discussion changes and the horse with the better class(ability), regardless of size, can usually win. Hence I think the reference to McGinty and co. But in 2000m + races, the weight on a horses back is a huge factor and that's why you often hear the comment, " This horse is better suited under the WFA scale". JMO  

. When experienced analysts, for example Gary Crispe, say that "2kg is equal to 5 lengths" you have to believe that it means something

Wow.... so I claim 4kg and add 10 lengths to the normal performance!!

[scooby3051 10,868]

Stick to your day job if I were you.....

[gary1 361]

16 hours ago, Berri said:

If the horse wins and you know its weight on the day of the race then you can use that as a benchmark. It could well be though that the optimal weight for its best performance is a different weight. Time will tell that

my question was will 20 pounds either way of the horses optimal weight make a difference

[Guest 2Admin2]

I don't believe 2kg makes a jot of difference to a horses performance.  2kg is 0.3% of Winx's body weight.  Humidor wouldn't have beaten Winx let alone by 5 lengths if their carried weights were the same.

[Berri 2,131]

3 hours ago, 2Admin2 said:

I don't believe 2kg makes a jot of difference to a horses performance.  2kg is 0.3% of Winx's body weight.  Humidor wouldn't have beaten Winx let alone by 5 lengths if their carried weights were the same.

You are a total loony .....if that were the case then the entire structure of handicapping would come into disrepute. That you could even think that you know better is symptomatic of a disillusioned poor unfortunate soul that needs help. You simply don't understand that internal mass and external mass are two completely separate physiological rules. Like all others, i'm signing out knowing that you will never get any matter proffered by others on this matter.

 

 

[Berri 2,131]

4 hours ago, gary1 said:

my question was will 20 pounds either way of the horses optimal weight make a difference

Horses have a skeletal muscular structure that at some point operate at an optimal level. Most horses have differing weights but are genetically within a range due to the limited genetic pool (3 stallions and 40 broodmares). Different trainers and food types have an influence over the ability for a horse to perform at a top level for the individual horse. The body condition and fitness is materially influenced by the management of both of these. Good trainers know how to optimise both. At a horse's peak ability, the body will have a weight that is genetically expressed. Less than, or more than this weight will have a correlation to performance. Depending on the grade of race and the opposition, the horse will need to be at their best to perform well. In the top grade (Gp 1) where all horses need to be at their optimal performance, fitness wise, to win, 10kgs difference from their optimal performance weight will make a difference.

[gary1 361]

13 minutes ago, Berri said:

Horses have a skeletal muscular structure that at some point operate at an optimal level. Most horses have differing weights but are genetically within a range due to the limited genetic pool (3 stallions and 40 broodmares). Different trainers and food types have an influence over the ability for a horse to perform at a top level for the individual horse. The body condition and fitness is materially influenced by the management of both of these. Good trainers know how to optimise both. At a horse's peak ability, the body will have a weight that is genetically expressed. Less than, or more than this weight will have a correlation to performance. Depending on the grade of race and the opposition, the horse will need to be at their best to perform well. In the top grade (Gp 1) where all horses need to be at their optimal performance, fitness wise, to win, 10kgs difference from their optimal performance weight will make a difference.

thanks for the cut and paste i presume who wrote that says that 10 kg will make a difference  so therefore that good hong kong horse i use to back must have been quite good he had awide range of weight variance but never really got heavier as he got older

[Berri 2,131]

3 hours ago, gary1 said:

thanks for the cut and paste i presume who wrote that says that 10 kg will make a difference  so therefore that good hong kong horse i use to back must have been quite good he had awide range of weight variance but never really got heavier as he got older

not a cut and paste. Came out of my brain. Put the data up on the horse that you backed and we'll all be able to comment.

[Guest 2Admin2]

3 hours ago, Berri said:

Horses have a skeletal muscular structure that at some point operate at an optimal level. Most horses have differing weights but are genetically within a range due to the limited genetic pool (3 stallions and 40 broodmares). Different trainers and food types have an influence over the ability for a horse to perform at a top level for the individual horse. The body condition and fitness is materially influenced by the management of both of these. Good trainers know how to optimise both. At a horse's peak ability, the body will have a weight that is genetically expressed. Less than, or more than this weight will have a correlation to performance. Depending on the grade of race and the opposition, the horse will need to be at their best to perform well. In the top grade (Gp 1) where all horses need to be at their optimal performance, fitness wise, to win, 10kgs difference from their optimal performance weight will make a difference.

So if Chris Waller was training to last season's weight with Winx he would have been wrong by 11kgs.  Correct?

As I said weight is only one factor.

[gary1 361]

2 hours ago, Berri said:

not a cut and paste. Came out of my brain. Put the data up on the horse that you backed and we'll all be able to comment.

able friend

 

[Ohokaman 5,825]

On 10/29/2017 at 0:40 PM, Ohokaman said:

Agree. She won't be going to the Emirates after that. It was noticeable how hard she was blowing when Hughie was being interviewed, and there's no doubt that run took a lot out of her on firmer ground than she prefers. When was the last time anything got within a long neck of her....?? Off to the paddock if they are wise.

Good to see they are being sensible and spelling her, so no Emirates. Hughie now riding Gingernuts.

[Guest 2Admin2]

2 hours ago, Ohokaman said:

Good to see they are being sensible and spelling her, so no Emirates. Hughie now riding Gingernuts.

Lay humidor