RaceCafe..#1...Tipsters Thread.... Share Your Fancies For Fun...Lets See Who The Best Tipsters Here Are.
rdytdy

Congrats Winx

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2 hours ago, Leggy said:

Really? You have scientific evidence of that of course? Not just some ancient unproven theory based on a false assumption?

Wow...and I thought there was a modicum of intelligence behind the façade of the beast known as 2 Admin 2. If the concept of handicapping is a hoax, then the concept of handicap races is a hoax. The differential between WFA or set weights versus handicaps is therefore a hoax. Therefore we shouldn't have handicapping races...that's what you are potentially arguing. We may as well deal in percentages of 1 kilo because machine learning using official race results over 300 years doesn't convince you that 1 kg makes any material different in performance. Let's simply agree with 2 Admin 2 and get rid of all handicappers. One things for sure, if you ever complain that any particular horse is badly treated by the handicapper, we will all be the first in unison to shut you down.

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2 hours ago, Berri said:

Wow...and I thought there was a modicum of intelligence behind the façade of the beast known as 2 Admin 2. If the concept of handicapping is a hoax, then the concept of handicap races is a hoax. The differential between WFA or set weights versus handicaps is therefore a hoax. Therefore we shouldn't have handicapping races...that's what you are potentially arguing. We may as well deal in percentages of 1 kilo because machine learning using official race results over 300 years doesn't convince you that 1 kg makes any material different in performance. Let's simply agree with 2 Admin 2 and get rid of all handicappers. One things for sure, if you ever complain that any particular horse is badly treated by the handicapper, we will all be the first in unison to shut you down.

I think he really is just arguing for the sake of it... nothing he has said in this entire thread from false straights to arguing with you makes little or no sense...good luck trying to educate him on this...:unsure:

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Interesting beat up here.

My experience of race analysis leads me to think Rdytdy, Gary1 and 2Admin2 are on the right track.

Some notes...ability carries weight not horse structure....weight differences have little effect on slow run races.

A horses change in actual weight has little or no impact on performance.

Jockeys and trainers are not generally not smart on race analysis....professional punters have to read their minds to forecast likely speed map decisions.

Winx and Humidor haven't changed...P4P Winx doesn't need a rest

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A horses change in actual weight has little or no impact on performance. A quote from 100/1 I can not agree, a horses weight is so important and as they get older MOST not all have a winning weight I know this very well and one of the easiest ways to have a horses under perform is have it to heavy or too skinny...JMHO...and I also do not agree that that Jockeys and trainers are not smart on race analysis, some maybe but you generalize way too much... thanks for the input anyway.

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5 hours ago, Berri said:

Wow...and I thought there was a modicum of intelligence behind the façade of the beast known as 2 Admin 2. If the concept of handicapping is a hoax, then the concept of handicap races is a hoax. The differential between WFA or set weights versus handicaps is therefore a hoax. Therefore we shouldn't have handicapping races...that's what you are potentially arguing. We may as well deal in percentages of 1 kilo because machine learning using official race results over 300 years doesn't convince you that 1 kg makes any material different in performance. Let's simply agree with 2 Admin 2 and get rid of all handicappers. One things for sure, if you ever complain that any particular horse is badly treated by the handicapper, we will all be the first in unison to shut you down.

Berri, firstly, I am NOT 2admin2, so I don't understand why you commence your response to my post with an insulting comment about 2admin2. Perhaps because you have no legitimate argument? Also, I am not arguing any of the things that you say. Handicapping is a hoax? We shouldn't have handicap racing? Don't think I said that. Nor did I say that 1kg doesn't make any material difference, though what is material relative to other factors affecting performance is arguable.

If you re-read my post, you'll see that what I was questioning was your claim that "1kg is approx 3 lengths" and whether you have any evidence of that because there isn't any. The only thing you've come up with is some gobbledygook about 300 years of machine learning. If you have the data and evidence to support your claim (or anything remotely close to it), then please point us to it. If not, I'll assume you are relying on the same ancient unproven theory based on a false assumption that I referred to. That's what "machine learning using official race results over 300 years" sounds like to me.

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Guest 2Admin2

Fact:  higher weighted horses win more races on average.  That's carried weight not body weight.

Why:  they have more ability.

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Guest 2Admin2
3 hours ago, Leggy said:

I take it you are meaning there by 'actual weight', weight carried, not actual weight of the horse?

A horse's actual body weight is an indication of fitness not ability.

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13 hours ago, Berri said:

You are certified. Change doctors. There is quite a difference between mass and external weight. As a body is a combination between a spring with a stiffness coefficient, with a spring loaded pan, the actual size of a thoroughbred doesn't really influence efficiency which reflects ability. External weight, which is not attached to the internal spring loaded pan, does have an influence due to inefficiencies as it's human ability (the jock) that determines the relationships of efficiencies . That's why some Jackie's somehow get a horse to run. If you change the external weight you materially change the horse's efficiency. That is why you fool 1kg is approx 3 lengths. 

quick question berri if you backed a horse and found out that the jockey weighed in a kilo overweight would you change your bet

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Looking back over these posts, I don't think I've ever read so much rubbish. I agree on one point and that is that horses with exceptional/more ability, seem to cope with weight increases more than others. But some of the comments are silly and make a mockery of very experienced and professional people. Take Lloyd Williams. Here's a guy who wins his "5th" Melbourne Cup with Almandin (2016 for the dummies), and says after the race that "the horse beat the handicapper". When people like Lloyd say that, then you have to believe that weight matters. When experienced analysts, for example Gary Crispe, say that "2kg is equal to 5 lengths" you have to believe that it means something. Trainers complain that "I'm scratching or not accepting because my horse has been weighted unfairly". It has to mean something. On the other hand, I'm quite comfortable to back a good top weight in a 1000/1200m Sprint. I don't think it matters so much. But in staying races, a good horse in on the lighter weight is favoured by me and according to judges I respect, it is a huge advantage. Then there's WFA, an entirely different proposition. That's when the discussion changes and the horse with the better class(ability), regardless of size, can usually win. Hence I think the reference to McGinty and co. But in 2000m + races, the weight on a horses back is a huge factor and that's why you often hear the comment, " This horse is better suited under the WFA scale". JMO :) 

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4 hours ago, Leggy said:

I take it you are meaning there by 'actual weight', weight carried, not actual weight of the horse?

No....the actual weight of the horse.

Below is typical regular racing horse with a variation of 50lb actual weight difference/swing ...have found no correlation between weight and performance.

Maybe 1st start after spell only

   
 
hf_3r_btn_o.jpg hf_b3r_btn.jpg hf_allr_btn.jpg
Race
Index
Pla. Date RC/Track/
Course
Dist. G Race
Class
Dr Rtg. Trainer Jockey LBW Win Odds Act.
Wt.
Running
Position
Finish Time Declar.
Horse Wt.
Gear Video
Replay
 17/18 Season
113 12 14/10/17 ST / "Turf" / "C " 1400 G 4 9 041 C H Yip W M Lai 7-1/2 72 116 8  9  9  12 1.23.50 1141 TT
Race Replay Aerial Virtual Replay    
076 WV 01/10/17 ST / "Turf" / "A+3 " 1400 G 4 -- 041 C H Yip W M Lai -- --- 114 -- -- -- -- --
037 06 16/09/17 ST / "Turf" / "C+3 " 1200 GF 4 7 043 C H Yip W M Lai 7-1/4 47 118 4  4  6 1.10.38 1136 TT
Race Replay Aerial Virtual Replay    
004 11 03/09/17 ST / "Turf" / "B " 1200 G 4 7 043 C H Yip K C Ng 10-1/4 73 117 10  12  11 1.11.64 1133 TT
Race Replay Aerial Virtual Replay    
 16/17 Season
602 12 26/04/17 HV / "Turf" / "C " 1200 GF 4 10 044 C H Yip J Moreira 7 5.3 118 5  5  12 1.11.43 1111 TT
Race Replay Aerial Virtual Replay    
566 06 12/04/17 HV / "Turf" / "A " 1200 G 4 2 044 C H Yip U Rispoli 2 8.8 117 5  4  6 1.10.84 1114 TT
Race Replay Aerial Virtual Replay    
529 02 29/03/17 HV / "Turf" / "C+3 " 1200 GF 4 1 044 C H Yip J Moreira 2-1/4 2.5 118 3  3  2 1.10.23 1120 TT
Race Replay Aerial Virtual Replay    
482 04 12/03/17 ST / "Turf" / "C+3 " 1200 G 4 7 044 C H Yip T H So 4-3/4 26 116 4  4  4 1.10.14 1123 TT
Race Replay Aerial Virtual Replay    
465 01 05/03/17 ST / "Turf" / "C " 1200 GF 5 11 039 C H Yip J Moreira N 6.1 132 4  4  1 1.09.84 1132 TT
Race Replay Aerial Virtual Replay    
386 09 02/02/17 HV / "Turf" / "A " 1200 G 4 11 041 C H Yip T H So 4-1/4 51 112 10  9  9 1.11.20 1144 TT
Race Replay Aerial Virtual Replay    
310 11 04/01/17 HV / "Turf" / "A " 1200 G 4 3 044 C H Yip T H So 7 25 115 6  6  11 1.11.67 1153 TT
Race Replay Aerial Virtual Replay    
246 09 07/12/16 HV / "Turf" / "B " 1200 GF 4 4 046 C H Yip T H So 2-3/4 21 117 8  10  9 1.11.13 1145 TT
Race Replay Aerial Virtual Replay    
179 04 12/11/16 ST / "Turf" / "A+3 " 1400 G 4 3 048 C H Yip D Whyte 3-1/2 13 121 7  8  7  4 1.22.78 1151 TT
Race Replay Aerial Virtual Replay    
077 05 05/10/16 HV / "Turf" / "A " 1200 G 4 1 049 C H Yip C Schofield 3-1/2 4.9 122 7  3  5 1.11.34 1122 TT
Race Replay Aerial Virtual Replay    
050 04 25/09/16 ST / "Turf" / "A " 1200 GF 4 10 049 C H Yip D Whyte 1-1/4 6 122 13  13  4 1.10.58 1122 TT
Race Replay Aerial Virtual Replay    
020 05 11/09/16 ST / "Turf" / "C " 1200 G 4 10 049 C H Yip D Whyte 3-1/2 14 122 9  9  5 1.09.93 1115 TT
Race Replay Aerial Virtual Replay    
 15/16 Season
745 02 26/06/16 ST / "Turf" / "A " 1200 GF 4 4 048 C H Yip T H So 1-1/4 18 119 8  7  2 1.09.22 1122 TT/B-
Race Replay Aerial Virtual Replay    
726 06 19/06/16 ST / "AWT" / "-" 1200 GD 4 7 050 C H Yip D Whyte 3-1/2 59 125 9  10  6 1.09.68 1120 TT/B
Race Replay Aerial Virtual Replay    
624 09 07/05/16 ST / "Turf" / "C " 1200 G 4 7 052 C H Yip D Whyte 4-1/4 31 127 8  9  9 1.10.50 1116 TT/B
Race Replay Aerial Virtual Replay    
577 11 20/04/16 HV / "Turf" / "B " 1200 G 4 5 053 C H Yip G Lerena 7-1/2 6.9 126 7  8  11 1.11.58 1101 TT/B2
Race Replay Aerial Virtual Replay    
560 04 13/04/16 HV / "Turf" / "A " 1650 GY 4 8 053 C H Yip C Schofield 6-1/2 11 126 3  4  4  4 1.42.65 1121 TT/B-
Race Replay Aerial Virtual Replay    
504 08 23/03/16 HV / "Turf" / "C " 1200 GY 4 6 053 C H Yip C Schofield 5 12 126 6  6  8 1.11.28 1132 TT/B
Race Replay Aerial Virtual Replay    
448 01 02/03/16 HV / "Turf" / "C+3 " 1200 G 4 1 047 C H Yip C Schofield 1 6.2 118 4  4  1 1.10.77 1120 TT/B
Race Replay Aerial Virtual Replay    
399 06 14/02/16 ST / "Turf" / "C+3 " 1200 G 4 8 049 C H Yip B Prebble 4-3/4 8 122 12  10  6 1.10.29 1119 TT/B1
Race Replay Aerial Virtual Replay    
333 05 17/01/16 ST / "Turf" / "C+3 " 1400 G 4 11 050 C H Yip R Moore 4 7.9 123 11  11  11  5 1.22.89 1134 TT
Race Replay Aerial Virtual Replay    
267 05 19/12/15 ST / "Turf" / "C+3 " 1400 G 4 5 050 C H Yip D Whyte 2-1/4 6.8 124 8  8  8  5 1.23.08 1132 TT
Race Replay Aerial Virtual Replay    
190 03 21/11/15 ST / "Turf" / "B+2 " 1200 G 4 8 050 C H Yip B Prebble 1-1/4 5.9 123 10  9  3 1.10.28 1122 TT
Race Replay Aerial Virtual Replay    
113 01 18/10/15 ST / "Turf" / "C+3 " 1200 GF 4 8 042 C H Yip J Moreira 1-1/2 2.6 115 11  9  1 1.09.60 1123 TT
Race Replay Aerial Virtual Replay    
055 02 28/09/15 ST / "Turf" / "A " 1200 G 5 10 039 C H Yip B Prebble SH 27 132 10  7  2 1.10.64 1111 TT1
Race Replay Aerial Virtual Replay    

 

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You shot yourself in the foot 100/1 most of his best performances were when he was was within 10 pounds of his winning weight, all his worst performances were when he was heavier or lighter than this... wieght don't mean anything... sadly you are very wrong.:D

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3 hours ago, scooby3051 said:

You shot yourself in the foot 100/1 most of his best performances were when he was was within 10 pounds of his winning weight, all his worst performances were when he was heavier or lighter than this... wieght don't mean anything... sadly you are very wrong.:D

random but this horse was approx 30 lb   

107 08 11/10/17 Valley Grassland "B" 1000 it is good 2 5 082 Sued Tony Wu Jiajin 4-1 / 2 45 112 7   8   8 0.57.40 1134 TT / CP
  Event review Simulation of aerial view  
043 12 16/09/17 Field grassland "C + 3" 1000 So fast 2 8 082 Sued Tony Wu Jiajin 6-3 / 4 39 113 5   9   12 0.57.23 1125 TT / CP
  Event review Simulation of aerial view  
 16/17  horse season
750 02 21/06/17 Valley grass "C" 1650 it is good 3 7 080 Sued Tony Veda Neck 10 133 5   6   5   2 1.39.41 1125 TT / CP
  Event review Simulation of aerial view  
683 05 28/05/17 Field Grassland "A" 1400 So fast 2 2 081 Sued Tony Wu Jiajin 3-1 / 4 29 113 1   1   2   5 1.22.23 1124 TT / CP
  Event review Simulation of aerial view  
598 06 23/04/17 Field grassland "C + 3" 1400 it is good 2 5 081 Sued Tony He Zeyao 4-1 / 2 38 122 3   4   4   6 1.22.70 1115 TT / CP
  Event review Simulation of aerial view  
508 05 19/03/17 Field Grassland "A" 1400 Good / sticky 2 3 081 Sued Tony Wu Jiajin 2 39 113 4   3   2   5 1.23.42 1122 TT / CP
  Event review Simulation of aerial view  
406 01 08/02/17 Valley Grassland "B" 1650 it is good 3 5 076 Sued Tony Su Zhaohui Neck 2.6 130 2   2   2   1 1.39.87 1123 TT / B- / CP2
  Event review Simulation of aerial view  
368 02 25/01/17 Valley grass "C + 3" 1650 it is good 3 2 074 Sued Tony Su Zhaohui 3/4 4.5 128 2   2   2   2 1.39.63 1120 TT / B
  Event review Simulation of aerial view  
315 05 04/01/17 Valley Grassland "A" 1650 it is good 3 11 076 Sued Tony Wu Jiajin 3-1 / 4 18 124 2   2   1   5 1.40.62 1113 TT / B
  Event review Simulation of aerial view  
248 07 07/12/16 Valley Grassland "B" 1650 So fast 3 12 078 Sued Tony Du Man Lai 2-1 / 2 9.1 131 2   3   3   7 1.41.26 1108 TT / B
  Event review Simulation of aerial view  
193 05 16/11/16 Valley grass "C" 1200 it is good 3 11 080 Sued Tony Guo can 4-1 / 4 20 133 4   6   5 1.10.45 1127 TT / B
  Event review Simulation of aerial view  
148 11 30/10/16 Valley Grassland "A" 1200 it is good 2 7 082 Sued Tony He Zeyao 7-1 / 2 25 117 3   5   11 1.11.32 1114 TT / B
  Event review Simulation of aerial view  
071 07 01/10/16 Field grassland "A + 3" 1200 it is good 2 2 082 Sued Tony Cai Ming Shao 1-1 / 2 13 117 2   2   7 1.09.21 1104 TT / B
  Event review Simulation of aerial view  
018 03 07/09/16 Valley Grassland "B" 1200 Good / sticky 2 4 082 Sued Tony Cai Ming Shao 2-3 / 4 18 118 4   5   3 1.10.40 1099 TT / B
  Event review Simulation of aerial view  
 15/16  horse season
705 06 09/06/16 Valley Grassland "A" 1200 it is good 2 11 083 Sued Tony He Zeyao 3-3 / 4 13 114 8   7   6 1.10.60 1098 TT / B
  Event review Simulation of aerial view  
646 05 14/05/16 Field grassland "C + 3" 1400 it is good 2 8 083 Sued Tony He Zeyao 2-1 / 4 39 114 1   1   1   5 1.22.05 1104 TT / B
  Event review Simulation of aerial view  
555 09 10/04/16 Field grassland "C" 1400 Good / sticky 2 9 083 Sued Tony He Zeyao 5 32 120 2   3   4   9 1.23.24 1099 TT / B
  Event review Simulation of aerial view  
495 WX-A 20/03/16 Field Grassland "A" 1400 it is good 2 - 083 Sued Tony He Zeyao - --- 119 - - - - -
452 02 02/03/16 Valley grass "C + 3" 1650 it is good 3 2 080 Sued Tony He Zeyao Neck 14 131 1   1   1   2 1.40.24 1108 TT / B
  Event review Simulation of aerial view  
413 01 17/02/16 Valley Grassland "B" 1650 it is good 3 7 075 Sued Tony He Zeyao Nose 4.9 126 1   1   1   1 1.41.23 1105 TT / B
  Event review Simulation of aerial view  
318 06 09/01/16 Field grassland "C" 1400 it is good 3 5 075 Sued Tony Su Zhaohui 6-1 / 2 11 128 1   1   1   6 1.22.50 1107 TT / B
  Event review Simulation of aerial view  
260 03 16/12/15 Valley Grassland "B" 1650 it is good 3 5 075 Sued Tony Liang Jiajun 1-1 / 2 7 128 1   1   1   3 1.41.29 1102 TT / B
  Event review Simulation of aerial view  
203 07 25/11/15 Valley grass "C" 1650 it is good 3 6 075 Sued Tony He Zeyao 3 11 126 1   2   2   7 1.42.21 1100 TT / B
  Event review Simulation of aerial view  
128 02 22/10/15 Valley grass "C + 3" 1650 it is good 3 3 073 Sued Tony Guo can Neck 3.2 129 2   2   2   2 1.41.70 1093 TT / B
  Event review Simulation of aerial view  
092 01 07/10/15 Valley Grassland "A" 1650 Good / sticky 3 7 066 Sued Tony Witch Nose 8.8 120 1   1   1   1 1.41.33 1096 TT / B
  Event review Simulation of aerial view  
046 08 19/09/15 Field grassland "C + 3" 1400 So fast 3 7 066 Sued Tony Wu Jiajin 4-3 / 4 15 116 1   1   1   8 1.22.50 1096 TT / B
  Event review Simulation of aerial view  
010 04 06/09/15 Field grassland "B" 1400 it is good 3 13 065 Sued Tony Guo can 3/4 20 120 1   1   1   4 1.22.98 1095 TT / CP- / B1
  Event review Simulation of aerial view  

 

* Includes local and overseas results and bonuses 

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7 hours ago, scooby3051 said:

You shot yourself in the foot 100/1 most of his best performances were when he was was within 10 pounds of his winning weight, all his worst performances were when he was heavier or lighter than this... wieght don't mean anything... sadly you are very wrong.:D

I was just demonstrating a typical weight range of a horse....NOT the effect weight had on those results.

Your a genius if you can rate each individual race performances without watching replays, Knowing sectionals or ability of the opposition horses.

A finish 7-10 lengths from the winner can easily be as good as a winning performance.

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12 hours ago, 100 1 said:

I was just demonstrating a typical weight range of a horse....NOT the effect weight had on those results.

Your a genius if you can rate each individual race performances without watching replays, Knowing sectionals or ability of the opposition horses.

A finish 7-10 lengths from the winner can easily be as good as a winning performance.

Talk about trying to change the position of the goal posts....no wonder you're calling yourself 100-1

The leading training establishment in the World uses weight as one of the important parameters for the correlation of potential performance. This doe not mean that a horse has to be a specific weight as an individual to be at their peak, but more that each individual horse has an optimal weight in order to perform at their peak. This weight tends to increase as the horse gets older then at approx 5years old this stabilises.

Horses not at their optimal racing weights don't perform as well as those that are. That is a fact.

 

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1 hour ago, Berri said:

Talk about trying to change the position of the goal posts....no wonder you're calling yourself 100-1

The leading training establishment in the World uses weight as one of the important parameters for the correlation of potential performance. This doe not mean that a horse has to be a specific weight as an individual to be at their peak, but more that each individual horse has an optimal weight in order to perform at their peak. This weight tends to increase as the horse gets older then at approx 5years old this stabilises.

Horses not at their optimal racing weights don't perform as well as those that are. That is a fact.

 

if a horses optimal weight is say  1140 p would he race ok  say at 1160 or 1120

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