Hastings Track Conditions

[Berri 2,131]

As I said, I looked at some of the data from the weather stations we gather data off in the area. I attached the position of those weather stations in my previous post. I have to wonder what technology is being used to provide the precipitation data. And of course there are no references to the wind direction, speed and temperature which naturally materially changes the game.

But based on the figures that you have provided us with, firstly, there are differences in the amounts of precipitation from the "official NZTR data" and 16 weather stations that surround the track's region. So let's set that aside for the moment. 

The precipitation that you have indicated once more promotes more questions than it provides answers. In fact I'm starting to smell a rat because the logic doesn't seem to fit. And before I explain this, in your previous post let me clear something up. We CAN provide weather forecasts that are 83% accurate 10 days out, 91% accurate 3 days out and 97% accurate 1 day out. It's correlated data that results from artificial intelligence derived from historic statistical trends by bench marking multiple weather station's data and then correlating it to a known point through triangulation.

What I said before is that I couldn't influence the weather but I can report on it. Whyistand....you need to read what you are posting more carefully. I can only refer to your posts literally.

So to the problem at hand...according to your data, a total of 10.2mm of rain was had over 8 days. In addition 14mm was irrigated 6 days before the event.

One day before the event the track was a dead 5.

On the Tuesday 19th in the morning the track was a Good 3 - perfect track for me. They thought it was too firm so they watered the track 

The 14mm of irrigation and 1mm of natural rain turned the track from a Good 3 to a Dead 4 on Wednesday 20th at 9.00am. So the track changed 1 point.

So on Thursday morning 9.07am it was recorded that 0.2mm of rain had fallen during Wednesday night but although it had been raining on and off, the track had stayed the same all day as the last recording was taken at 4.45pm. The track was still rated a Dead 4.

During Thursday night it rained 8mm and at 8.45am Friday 22nd the track was re-rated to a Dead 6 (a deterioration of 2 points). It was fine all day and overcast on the Friday where at 4.20pm the track was re-rated back to a Dead 5....an improvement of 1 point

During Friday night only 7mm of rain fell and at 6.59am on Saturday 23rd the track was rated Slow 9....a deterioration of 4 points

Hopefully you're following this because this doesn't make sense at all. Look at the logic and tell me what's wrong with this picture. On logic, IF the previous data is accurate, the track should have at worst changed 2 points (commensurate to the Thursday night rain of 8mm). But that didn't happen.

My real question is that with a very good weather forecast.....and you can't tell me it was going to be a skating rink....I don't buy into that now the I've seen the data....could this whole debacle have been avoided? My very quick answer is yes and its about time the technology was put into place.

 

[Berri 2,131]

And this should also be considered. Hold you hand up and pull your index finger and thumb apart so that the gap equals 24mm or one inch. Then say to yourself, why is it that only one inch over 7 days (it hadn't rained prior to the Tuesday) should make such a difference on the track when 1 day (the Friday) was fine weather.

In reality there are only two options available.

1. The data reporting was wrong ......could have been that the surface measuring system (pentrometer) isn't accurate, or the person reading it did it incorrectly, or the technology to record the precipitation was wrong, or the amount irrigated was incorrectly recorded; or

2. The track surface reacts inversely to logic....could be that the management of the surface is so bad that beyond a Dead 5 the track conditions deteriorate exponentially. In this instance data needs to be extracted from the racing surface and then it should be correlated to the environmental data that could influence the changes to the track surface.

NZRB and NZTR....this research needs to be done.

 

[Varro 244]

3 hours ago, Lloyd Vivian said:

Race Day
Weather: Cloudy
Track: Slow 9
Rail: Out 4m | 7mm Rain Overnight
Weather and Track updated at 6.59am Saturday 23 September

Friday Afternoon
Weather: Overcast
Track: Dead 5
Rail: Out 4m | No Rain today
Weather and Track updated at 4.20pm Friday 22 September

 

You have just highlighted the issue perfectly Whyisit. This is what everyone is concerned about. SOMETHING doesn't add up!!!! A DEAD 5 on Friday evening at 4:20pm, 7mm of rain overnight and suddenly it's a SLOW 9 by 7:00am Saturday??????? Are you kidding me and everyone else?????????? 

Exactly and is why I agree with Berri. It doesn't stack up

[.... 226]

1 hour ago, Varro said:

Exactly and is why I agree with Berri. It doesn't stack up

Self Explanatory woudnt you think!,  the fact they irrigated isnt the issue its the amount they did on the Tuesday close to raceday when rain was forecast, they had already put plenty on!

[puha 2,177]

Come on guys move on !!!! Start your moaning about the latest round of irritating at least .

[scooby3051 10,865]

Sick of it...the meeting was a farking week ago... lets just agree to disagree.

[Varro 244]

1 hour ago, scooby3051 said:

Sick of it...the meeting was a farking week ago... lets just agree to disagree.

With all due respect Scooby and I'm not trying to down the club but this is one of new Zealand's feature meetings and to have the track the way it was is really an embarrassment. It shows really our amateurish our industry is. It is extremely clear even though perhaps unintentional, that an error was made and having discussion and challenging ideas can only be a good thing in the hope that something constructive is taken away from this. The simple fact of the matter is it should not have been a slow 9 and our best horses should have been racing on a much better surface and this didn't happen. This is simply not good enough. And we as owners, punters, stakeholders fans and participants deserve better. 

[scooby3051 10,865]

I know already you guys have been round and round for a week... we all get it really we do so please you guys move on...cheers.

 

[Whyisit 232]

20 minutes ago, scooby3051 said:

I know already you guys have been round and round for a week... we all get it really we do so please you guys move on...cheers.

 

With due respect Scooby I have mentioned twice before in my postings the pentrometer indicated a slow 8 but the stipes put in slow 9.It was their call

would you be happy with a slow eight Varro or are you still beying for blood.

[scooby3051 10,865]

Guys its over FFS.

[Guest 2Admin2]

Somethings not right with the track though.  They applied another 14mls last night saying the penetrometer reading was 1.9.

[Berri 2,131]

So lets have a look at this and I've got to put  caveat on this because we don't have a weather station on the course. If there's anything that I've learnt and that is that a few kilometres can make a big difference when it comes to weather. The way the topography and physical features of any surrounding area influences this.

So on Saturday 30th at about 3pm there will be a bit of rain and between 2-4mm will drop. That bit of rain will be gone by 6-7pm. The wind will be from the E-ESE approx 8kph

On Sunday 1st October (opening trout fishing) the rain will come back at approx 11.00am.That will hang around until approx 6.00pm. Approx 2-4mm Wind 3.00pm 23kph ENE

On Monday 2nd fine weather top 18c and wind 37kph WSW

Tuesday 3rd fine top 18, wind 8kph from E

Wednesday 4th fine top 20 at 2pm wind from N 10kph

Thursday 5th slight rain by 7.30am 3mm to drop, top 16c by 11.00am, wind 24kph from SSE at 12.00pm

Friday 6th Top 15c, wind 14kph from E, overcast with spots

Saturday 7th fine Top 16, wind 14kph from E

So the caveat is that this is not from a weather station on the course. 

[Berri 2,131]

Weather Update

Low pressure forced to east, now Thursday's trickle looks unlikely with wind 27kph at 11.00 from SSW

[Berri 2,131]

I notice that at 8.45am the track was a Dead 5 and they recorded 3.5mm of rain on Sunday. Here's hoping they don't water the track and allow it to a firm 3 for once.

[Guest 2Admin2]

About 10mm will fall on Thursday.

[chevy86 2,704]

25 minutes ago, 2Admin2 said:

About 10mm will fall on Thursday.

From the clouds or the irrigation?

[Berri 2,131]

1 hour ago, 2Admin2 said:

About 10mm will fall on Thursday.

If its irrigation, it should be 5mls because it wont be rain

[Berri 2,131]

And it shouldn't be on the Thursday, it should be on the Wednesday

[Blind Squirrel 315]

Like Scooby I can't wait for this complete WOFTAM thread to be over - HOWEVER -

Here's the challenge for you experts who continue to second guess every track manager in the country. You have access to all of the weather forecasts available - won't don't you put down your prescribed actions for the next 120 hours. That way we can all judge your efforts seeing as how you all seem to place 100% faith in the forecasts!

You've all had the benefit of hindsight - how about showing us how good you are with foresight?

[Guest 2Admin2]

1 hour ago, chevy86 said:

From the clouds or the irrigation?

Clouds

[Guest 2Admin2]

11 minutes ago, Blind Squirrel said:

Like Scooby I can't wait for this complete WOFTAM thread to be over - HOWEVER -

Here's the challenge for you experts who continue to second guess every track manager in the country. You have access to all of the weather forecasts available - won't don't you put down your prescribed actions for the next 120 hours. That way we can all judge your efforts seeing as how you all seem to place 100% faith in the forecasts!

You've all had the benefit of hindsight - how about showing us how good you are with foresight?

Pitty says don't irrigate as he can cope with F1.  The target of G3 on raceday is wrong.

[Berri 2,131]

1 hour ago, Blind Squirrel said:

Like Scooby I can't wait for this complete WOFTAM thread to be over - HOWEVER -

Here's the challenge for you experts who continue to second guess every track manager in the country. You have access to all of the weather forecasts available - won't don't you put down your prescribed actions for the next 120 hours. That way we can all judge your efforts seeing as how you all seem to place 100% faith in the forecasts!

You've all had the benefit of hindsight - how about showing us how good you are with foresight?

What the fuck do you think I am doing....much like looking for your acorns....touch and feel instead of sight

[Berri 2,131]

1 hour ago, 2Admin2 said:

Clouds

Good luck to your mother

[scooby3051 10,865]

30 minutes ago, Berri said:

What the fuck do you think I am doing....much like looking for your acorns....touch and feel instead of sight

Ok so what should they do this week??? In your opinion to get a perfect track.

[Berri 2,131]

5mls Wednesday going by what we saw last week. Really need to do a visual soil assessment to be able to answer that fully but I'm into gambling. Also need a weather station on site to be sure of historic data.