Jacinda Ardern

[Ohokaman 5,824]

1 hour ago, Gruff said:

March 19

Those who have travelled here from other countries recently are still required to self-isolate, and those who have been here longer are being encouraged to look at how they can get home.

"I'm not willing to take risks here," Ardern said.

There are no covid cases in Vanuatu today

Helps when you get things right.....

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/18/politics/cdc-coronavirus-testing-contamination/index.html

[Gruff 2,790]

3 minutes ago, Ohokaman said:

Helps when you get things right.....

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/18/politics/cdc-coronavirus-testing-contamination/index.html

I posted imformation regarding the CDC ballsup a month ago Hokesy 

[Gruff 2,790]

If you remember you were Blaming the Orange man for his slow response, but it was Faucis mob

[Ohokaman 5,824]

26 minutes ago, Gruff said:

If you remember you were Blaming the Orange man for his slow response, but it was Faucis mob

Trump administration, he wears it. Just like sending millions of masks to China ignoring warnings about the coming pandemic.. it has been a right royal FU from the start.

[Gruff 2,790]

3 hours ago, Ohokaman said:

Trump administration, he wears it. Just like sending millions of masks to China ignoring warnings about the coming pandemic.. it has been a right royal FU from the start.

Trumps far to busy draining that f%#ken swamp, that shady Fauci told Sunkist  everythings good , what more can you do 

[Ohokaman 5,824]

10 minutes ago, Gruff said:

Trumps far to busy draining that f%#ken swamp, that shady Fauci told Sunkist  everythings good , what more can you do 

If Fauci is “shady” Trump must be a burnt crisp...like my mates Mrs......

[Gruff 2,790]

5 hours ago, Ohokaman said:

If Fauci is “shady” Trump must be a burnt crisp...like my mates Mrs......

That certainly was the oman for the Sungold Milk Terang Cup   .....Too close to the Sun 

[rdytdy 5,341]

Ardern is Always Right

History Is Being Re-written

By Idbkiwi

 

tuff, yesterday morning, congratulated us all on getting through and advised us, for posterity, “It may pay to jot down a few notes – send yourself an email…because memory fades.” It certainly does, especially when left-wash is happening right in front of our eyes. They are rewriting everything ‘Dear Leader’ Jacinda Ardern has done as bold and correct. They are rewriting everything conservative leaders have done, whether it’s Johnson, Trump, Morrison or Bridges, as short-sighted, capricious and stupid, whether or not they made the same moves as Ardern, when in fact they pre-empted her in almost every single act and instance.

My thoughts made clear already in several notes, have been the constant eerie parallels with ‘Nineteen Eighty Four: A Novel”, written over sixty years ago.

 

Here’s another:

“Every record has been destroyed or falsified, every book rewritten, every picture has been repainted,…and the process is continuing day by day and minute by minute. History has stopped. Nothing exists except an endless present in which the Party is always right.”

Right on cue today, from Stuff, another disgraceful display of outright propaganda:

I’m not a huge fan of Mr Bridges, I believe he can do a lot better, but I’d like to quote him:

“I suggest that, actually, if we don’t see harm in New Zealand, it will be much more by good luck than by good management and good practice by the Government. I regret to say I don’t believe the Minister of Health is leading on this issue in any way, shape, or form. He waited for the first Cabinet to make preliminary decisions on this matter when a week earlier than that, decisions should have been made on this incredibly significant issue. I believe we must be more proactive, more precautionary, in the way we handle this issue of coronavirus. The Minister said that the Government, the Ministry of Health, has been measured. I regret to say I think what he really means is “laid-back”. Kiwis are laid-back, but on an issue like this, that is not good enough.”

February 12th, 2020

Every single word of what Mr Bridges said is correct – and slightly prophetic because Mr Bridges’ words are not from hindsight, they are from February 12th, 2020.

It would take almost five weeks (an aeon in virological terms) for ‘Jacinda Van Winkle’ Ardern to finally wake herself up. The propagandists for Ardern acknowledged her lackadaisical, sit-on-hands approach. They used words very similar to those of Mr Bridges but (no surprises there) tried to spin her bumbling, indecisive ‘strategy’ as a leadership quality instead of the grave error it was. Fully one month after Bridges made his remarks in Parliament they said the following:

“The Government’s handling of Coronavirus has improved markedly this week, and the continued low-key approach has been in keeping with the national character.”

Stuff March 12, 2020

Hard? Nope. Early? Yes – definitely. When it was her turn to pull an all-nighter for the country’s good, Ardern chose instead to turn off the lights and get into bed, both early. And that, for those taking notes, is the only type of ‘Early’ she embraced.

Write a record indeed, because the propaganda ‘is continuing day by day and minute by minute. History has stopped. Nothing exists except an endless present in which Ardern is always right.’   

 

dbkiwi

 

[Archer 296]

Sadly I see Jacinda is still taking advice from allsorts, friends (regarding border control) and yesterday from a journo at the news conf (people should keep a diary) this all done with a smile and a laugh and then off she trots to go back to the palatial palace at Government house ....    can't find a throw up emoji ... 

[Gruff 2,790]

Isnt it her job to take advice Archer?  As long as that ‘advice’ isnt coming from Comrade Helen 

[eljay 1,719]

A lot of it probably is

[rdytdy 5,341]

 

 

 

 

[Ohokaman 5,824]

3 hours ago, Gruff said:

Isnt it her job to take advice Archer?  As long as that ‘advice’ isnt coming from Comrade Helen 

Fucking guarantee it Gruffy......another nice little self promotion.....

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/04/jacinda-ardern-new-zealand-leadership-coronavirus/610237/

[rdytdy 5,341]

 

Figures show us there is no reason to stay at level 4 further destroying the economy.

Enough with the High Scores, Can We Have the Real Numbers?

By expfc

We’ve all seen it, from every news source. Gleeful accounts of the day’s new high score. The lead articles on all the legacy media sites, whether TV, online or print, are all about big scary numbers. ‘20,000 dead in America’, ‘Highest Roadtoll for a Decade’, ‘Coronavirus Cases Over One Thousand’.

That’s what gets clicks of course, and as we’re the clickers, it seems that our appetite for big numbers is what drives this. If the article headline said something like ‘Bugger All to Report Today’, we probably wouldn’t bother checking it out.

 

So maybe this is why the government is only giving us the big numbers. It helps to justify their (sorry I mean Jacinda’s) decision to have us all locked up, with fewer rights than criminals subject to Home Detention. At least those guys can usually go out during the day.

Let’s look at some of the numbers then. I will use the figures revealed on Sunday the 19th.

The BFD.

You will note the top number, the one you might notice first, is the number of confirmed cases. 1098, a big scary number. Followed by the ‘probable’ number of 333. These are then added together to make the biggest scariest number of 1431, conveniently highlighted in bold to look extra scary.

By now you should all be a-twitter, secure in the reasoning behind your fear, happy to have the ‘experts’ making all your decisions for you, and happy to stay locked up like a common criminal, meekly kowtowing to the Commissariat, safe in the knowledge that ‘Dear Leader’ Jacinda Ardern has your back and is being kind to you.

From there on the numbers get a bit boring, nothing to see here, move along, please. Hang on a minute. 18 in Hospital? Seriously? I thought the whole point of flattening the curve was to allow the hospitals to cope. 

My little hospital in Queenstown could cope with that!

What’s next? Another big number, but by now you should have given up and stopped looking as numbers down this far really shouldn’t be of concern for you. 912 recovered, meh, it doesn’t matter how many people have already gotten over their minor symptoms, it’s the big scary totals that you’re supposed to concentrate on.

And last of all, the smallest number of the day, and because the number is so small, it is popped way down the bottom of the list. 12 people dead. Seriously folks, you probably shouldn’t even be reading such a small number; please remember our ‘models’ have predicted a really big scary number so please just concentrate on that. How about you just remember a big number instead, how about 80,000 dead. That’s how many lives we’re saving, remember.

Now those of you who partake in a little Backchat of an evening may have noticed a very fine graph from a clever commenter known as KCL52. This graph shows not only the big scary number of Total Confirmed Cases in red, but also the Total Recovered Cases in green, and most importantly the Net Current cases, in blue.

The BFD Graph credit KCL52

You may note that only actual confirmed cases are shown in red. This I believe is due to the belief by KCL52 that if the Ministry of Health can’t be arsed to actually test those they think ‘probably’ have the virus, then he can’t be arsed including what is essentially just a guess. Quite why they won’t test people who they actually think have the WuPox is beyond me.

Anyway, note how low the blue line is. I have done the numbers for today (Friday the 19th). It comes out at 186 actual, confirmed active cases of this virus, for the entire country. Even if you added the ‘Might Haves’, we still only have 519. Seriously, we’re sending everyone broke and demented for that?

There are other nice graphs on the government site too though. How about this pretty coloured one of Total Cases by DHB, (District Health Board).

The BFD

Let’s look at the Southern DHB stats. Two reasons for this, I live there for one, and the number is right up the top and the line is longest so it must be the worst. It also has a big number at the start, 216, and that is higher than all the other numbers so we must be the worst.

Now first of all, Southern DHB is a really big place. It runs from about Mt Cook all the way down to Stewart Island. It includes quite a few towns and even two cities. In it you will find Alexandra, Cromwell, Dunedin, Gore, Invercargill, Queenstown, Wanaka and a whole host of lovely little towns like where you might find your moderator Greg M holed up in his caravan supping quietly on a G and T. There’s even a couple of less desirable places like Whitecaps and Tuatapere but we don’t like to talk about them. Apparently 334,300 souls live down this way, not to mention all the tourists.

So what does this graph tell us? Southern has had a big number of infections. It now currently only has 62. That’s quite a small number for such a big place, and if you take out the ‘might haves’, that number is really starting to get barely visible. Certainly not enough to fill one of the new open-plan classrooms at Wakatipu High.

Then I look at the Total Cases in the Hospital table on the government website. Ooh, look, somewhere in one of our many hospitals down here in the lower half of the South, we have the grand total of ONE person in the hospital! Wow, I wonder if the system will cope?

The BFD.

Funny though, if I go to the Current Cases Details page, I find that for the Southern DHB region, we don’t seem to have many cases that are current. Our last notified case was on the 15th of April just a few days ago, a 15 to 19-year-old teenage girl. Prior to that was a twenty-something female and a thirty-something male who were notified on the 9th April.

That’s eleven days ago. The recovered criteria above in the first graph states “Recovered cases are people who had the virus, are at least 10 days since onset and have not exhibited symptoms for 48 hours, and have been cleared by the health professional responsible for their monitoring.“

Oh well, maybe they just haven’t been cleared by their doctors yet. In any case, the rest of those confirmed cases are older than that so in reality, it looks like Southern only has a handful of cases in total that are actually still an active problem. And here’s the kicker, we know who they all are, and where they live (not that us plebs get told unimportant things like what town or suburb they should avoid). All those people can have their contacts traced, they can be managed and kept away from old people and the infirm.

So again, we are all being bludgeoned with kindness. Many of us will go bankrupt, some will kill themselves, at least one Airbnb host in Queenstown has done just that last week, all so Ardern can say she knew what was best for us.

Beware the big numbers, they are a lie, a trick, they are designed to scare you, to make you willingly submit.

I don’t care anymore that the government pretend they went ‘Hardernurly‘, I don’t even care that they locked me up when I hadn’t done anything wrong. They can make the claim that we are only in this position because of their actions, it doesn’t matter any more, good for them, well done, clap clap. It doesn’t matter anymore that the initial modelling was rubbish. Maybe it was the government’s actions, maybe we just have unique circumstances, maybe we just got lucky, maybe Jacinda really is God’s gift to all that is righteous and good.

I don’t care any more, just allow us to get on with saving our livelihoods, our sanity, our lives. And don’t even think about putting us into level 3, or 3.8 with KFC, or even bloody level 2.

Just call the whole damn thing off and let’s get back to being the best damn place in the world to live.

 

[Ohokaman 5,824]

12 hours ago, Archer said:

Sadly I see Jacinda is still taking advice from allsorts, friends (regarding border control) and yesterday from a journo at the news conf (people should keep a diary) this all done with a smile and a laugh and then off she trots to go back to the palatial palace at Government house ....    can't find a throw up emoji ... 

[Archer 296]

4 hours ago, Gruff said:

Isnt it her job to take advice Archer?  As long as that ‘advice’ isnt coming from Comrade Helen 

Yes, advice from qualified people, 

But not f advice from friends overseas and advice from a reporter at the daily smiley show.  

[rdytdy 5,341]

Elimination ‘Strategy’ = a Bullet to the Stomach for NZ

The Government’s Whole COVID-19 “Strategy” from Start to Finish Has Been Flawed

By GP  Alex Davis

n late March, just days after first denying she was going to force the country into lockdown a lugubrious looking Jacinda Ardern waved around the “flatten the curve” graphic and told us that if COVID-19 was unchecked “our health system will be inundated and thousands of New Zealanders will die” and that consequently New Zealanders now needed to sacrifice fundamental civil liberties and their livelihoods to “save lives”.

There are two critical observations from that press conference.

First, it is now increasingly clear that Ardern misled the country with the claims that there would be tens of thousands of deaths. In an excellent and courageous piece of research (read it here) economist Ian Harrison (who has worked for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund and the Bank for International Settlements and specialises in risk modelling) demolished the fundamental research on which the government relied for compelling the country into lockdown.

No doubt the Ardern government will first dissemble, distract and deny this fact. If that doesn’t satisfy the usually quiescent media expect to see the University of Otago COVID-19 Research Group go under the bus as the government claims it simply “relied on the advice it was given.”

Except this is either a bald-faced lie or chronically incompetent. Let’s be charitable and assume it’s the later: Ardern’s incompetence stems from that fact that no one, anywhere, in any position of authority, ever should take a decision of that magnitude without double and triple checking the facts on which they are relying. Ardern didn’t. If one-man band economist Harrison can figure this out why couldn’t the government’s army of advisors?

Nevertheless, emboldened by a public terrified by hysterical, wall to wall reporting from the Legacy media, the government doubled down and so we found ourselves locked into lockdown, with all its unintended consequences. Consequences which will be severe, long lasting and almost certain to do more damage than COVID-19 will or could.

The BFD. Cartoon credit SonovaMin

Which brings us to the second point from that infamous press conference. The lockdown we were told was all about “flattening the curve”, to stop our health system from being “swamped.” But then a funny thing happened: the health system (like those offshore here and here and here) didn’t end up getting overwhelmed at all.

So, like slaves chiselling a pretender pharaoh’s name from the pyramids the flatten curve graphics were quietly removed from the press conferences and in the legacy media. They were replaced with a new message this time, “elimination.”   The Prime Minister stated: “We will step down to level 3 in a way that is consistent with our goal to eliminate COVID-19 in New Zealand.”

To be fair to Ardern you could justify the change in course if it was going to work. No one should be expected to pursue a strategy that is clearly flawed solely for political expediency (except of course she has before.)

The problem, of course, is that this new strategy is a), as hopelessly flawed in its empirical justifications as the original strategy, and b) worse, even if succeeds it will cripple New Zealand for years to come.

First, elimination means just that, elimination, and no one outside New Zealand is taking that possibility seriously. Brendan Murphy, Australia’s chief medical officer, told a New Zealand parliamentary committee April 14 that eradicating the virus is a “nirvana” scenario. The reasons the elimination strategy is extremely unlikely to be successful are surprisingly simple:

1. The R0 value of the coronavirus is high and it spreads asymptomatically, so in short, it spreads extremely easily, making containment with anything short of a lockdown impossible.

2. Upwards of 80% of those who contract the virus have no symptoms (ie never feel sick at all) which makes tracking the virus extremely difficult unless you implement mass population testing and contact tracing at a level far beyond New Zealand’s capacity (our contract tracing system has been described as a dinosaur).  

3. The tests the government plans to rely on to identify COVID-19 are well known to generate both false negatives and false positives.

4. It is estimated the number of unidentified cases is between 8 and 10 times the real figures, meaning New Zealand is likely to have tens of thousands of people carrying COVID-19 with no symptoms.

In short, it is almost inconceivable that New Zealand can eliminate COVID-19 without maintaining a permanent lockdown. Which begs the question: if we weren’t flattening the curve and we can’t eliminate it then why did we go into an economy crippling, poverty inducing, long term public health-damaging lockdown?

But, just for the sake of argument, let’s pretend that somehow New Zealand achieves the impossible and we do eliminate COVID-19 – what then? What happens when the dog chasing the car actually catches the car? The rest of the world will still have COVID-19. As mentioned, no one, anywhere else in the world is even considering this strategy. New Zealand will become a de facto prison for its 4.9M “citizens.”

Large scale inbound travel to New Zealand will be effectively eliminated, and with it the tourism sector, our largest export earner, contributing $45 billion to GDP annually. Without offshore tourism, Air New Zealand will become a domestic-only airline, so expect few flights to or from our fair shores (great news if you are a hard-green environmentalist, curtains for tens of thousands of employees).

With few onshore flights, the opportunities for New Zealanders to travel offshore will become few and expensive – say goodbye to that holiday in Europe or 2 weeks in Fiji and look forward to 2 weeks quarantine when you return home. It’s also very difficult to grow an international business entirely through Zoom so expect the slow but steady strangulation of New Zealand’s export-orientated businesses. Likewise expect prices of imports to surge and with the virtual elimination of immigration and a collapsing economy, walled off East Germany like from the rest of the world, property prices to fall.

And all this assumes that there are no slip-ups. But as Peter Collignon, an infectious diseases physician at Canberra Hospital who advises the Australian government on COVID-19 states: “the reality is this virus is everywhere, it’s all around the world. So even if you’re successful for a short period of time, how long do you do this for? Six months? Two years? Invariably, you’re going to get the virus re-introduced.” As Steven Joyce succinctly put it the “idea that we would get rid of COVID-19 is pie in the sky fantasy”

Proponents of the elimination strategy argue that “Colditz New Zealand” won’t be needed for more than 18 months and all we have to do is wait for a vaccine. However, there is no guarantee we will get a vaccine. As David Nabarro, professor of global health at Imperial College, London, and an envoy for the World Health Organisation on COVID-19 states: “You don’t necessarily develop a vaccine that is safe and effective against every virus. Some viruses are very, very difficult when it comes to vaccine development – so for the foreseeable future, we are going to have to find ways to go about our lives with this virus as a constant threat.”

Neither will anti-body testing be any more effective, with even the World Health Organisation warning that “there is no evidence that people who have recovered from coronavirus have immunity to the disease [and] there is no proof that such antibody tests can show if someone who has been infected with COVID-19 cannot be infected again.”

In short, there is a very, very real risk that the cavalry is not coming for New Zealand. We could be trapped here for a very long time – like Gandalf in the Lord of the Rings – “we cannot get out.”

Finally, we need to consider even if an effective vaccine was developed just how high up the priority list is New Zealand really going to be? If you are handing out vaccines do you prioritise the 5M people at the bottom of the world who are at no immediate risk or other 7.5 billion who are? The US and China are already hoarding and interdicting Personal Protection Equipment – what makes us think a vaccine will be different?

In short, the government’s whole COVID-19 “strategy” from start to finish has been flawed. It was based on flawed modelling and amplified by hysterical media reporting. And now New Zealand’s plan to “eliminate” the virus looks more like a bullet wound to the stomach, the result of which will be a long, painful and lonely death.

 

 

 

 

[rdytdy 5,341]

A Clandestine Covert Government

By JC

It is becoming increasingly apparent that we have in this country a Government that lacks the transparency our “Dear Leader” Jacinda Ardern likes to bang on about. For whatever reasons, and I can think of a few, we, her supposed faithful and loving subjects, are not being given the full picture. We are not being told, other than in broad generalities, why decisions are being made. These are decisions that affect the very fabric of our daily lives. There are some good examples that have recently come to light.

The first and most alarming is from Tailrisk economics, a Wellington economics consultancy. They specialise in the economics of low probability, high impact events including financial crises and natural disasters. Ian Harrison, a principal of the firm, critiqued the only publicly available information on the Ministry of Health’s modelling of the impact of Coronavirus on New Zealand. These are a set of reports all produced by the University of Otago COVID-19 Research Group. The key ‘headline’ result in the report was that if the lockdown shock therapy failed, the consequences would be serious. Between 8,560 and 14,400 could die over the next year.

Mr Harrison says he does not know what drove the Government’s hardline lockdown approach with all but essential workplaces being closed, but these results may have had an effect on the decision. He further comments that going forward it may influence decisions on extending the duration and intensity of subsequent actions. Furthermore, and this of great concern, he makes the point that the Prime Minister said what prompted her to go quickly to the level four intervention was a report showing some extreme outcomes. The report came from an investment firm with limited background or expertise in the field. Mr Harrison says the content of that report has not been disclosed, and it should be.

Damn right it should along with the name of the firm.

The next example comes courtesy of the Act Party and the only person who could honestly call himself an effective Opposition MP, David Seymour. David says New Zealanders deserve to see the legal basis on which their civil liberties are being severely restricted. At the Epidemic Response Committee the Attorney General, David Parker, refused to allow the public to see the Crown Law legal advice on the lockdown. He told the committee he would not release the Crown Law advice, even refusing to allow MPs to see it in private. As the Act party points out the rule of law states that rules must be clear and publicly accessible.

Who does this little dictator think he is? This is the same obnoxious person who tried similar standover tactics with farmers regarding water. People like Parker need to be called to account.

The BFD. The COVID card

Next up is one idea the Government could examine among a number of others that are being considered for contact tracing. It is branded the CovidCard which you carry around so the Government, under the guise of a health issue, can see where you’ve been and who you’ve met. This is a private initiative and a presentation was made to Kris Faafoi and Andrew Little. The name Little should send a chill up your spine. I don’t want this or any other similar idea thank you very much. In my book, it is PERMANENT SURVEILLANCE. I have no desire to see this country become the next China or North Korea. I note the UK is looking at a NHS app. How many in the most affected group, seniors, will know how to use it I wonder?

We now find out from health insiders that its contact-tracing ability needs improvement and its surveillance system is outdated, with one calling it a dinosaur. If the answer to updating is becoming a compulsory associate card carrying member of the Labour Party, they can hang on to their dinosaur. What a wonderful excuse for keeping us in some high level of confinement for as long as possible. This information is contained in yet another report that hasn’t been released.

To save our “Dear Leader” Jacinda Ardern the bother of googling the meaning of the word “transparency” here it is according to the Cambridge English Dictionary: “the quality of being done in a way without secrets.” A very apt example is given: “We want more transparency in Government”. Never a truer word was spoken. Rather than treating the populace with disdain, Jacinda might like to be more transparent about which reports she’s getting from whom and which ones she’s acted on and why. That’s the very least that should be expected from a Government with nothing to hide about how it’s going about its business. Anything else means questions need to be asked.

I have just spied a supercalifragilisticexpialidocious article on Jacinda Ardern written by Kishnan Naran, a political science graduate from the University of Otago. That probably tells you all you need to know. He comments on a number of ways she has handled the health crisis, one of them being transparency. I don’t profess to have reached the lofty heights of a political scientist but I hope he reads my article.

 

[Gruff 2,790]

We are heading into Flu season.... up to 20% of people are asymptomatic, are these people less likely to get Seasonal Flu? When people start coming down with the flu will those that have either displayed no symptoms or recovered show a positive test for Covid19 ? It looks as though any Cough ,Cold, or Flu this winter is going to be a real pain in the ass for everybody  Buckle up your seatbelts 

[rdytdy 5,341]

Do We Really Need More Time In Lockdown?

The Cure May Well Be Worse Than the Disease Itself

By Christie

 

Today (Tuesday 21 April) we have 5 new cases of COVID-19. We have a total of 13 deaths, all older people with underlying health conditions. This is sad for their families, but in world terms, our numbers are very low. Whether we were never going to be badly affected, or in fact we have dodged a bullet, we will never know. But the fact is, as of yesterday, we still have effectively at least another 3 weeks of lockdown.

Yes, half a million people will go back to work next week, and the prime minister did point out that the extra week in lockdown is only 2 extra ‘business days’. But that is only true if you work a five day week. What about all those workers who are losing their livelihoods, who generally work 6 or 7 days, or who normally work weekends? That is a very narrow view from our prime minister.

 

What if you were earning $1200 per week and now you are down to the wage subsidy amount of $545? Both figures are before tax and Kiwisaver deductions. Yes, your employer is supposed to pay you 80% of your pre-lockdown salary, but only if they can afford it. Many employers simply cannot afford it.

What if you are a hairdresser whose landlord has very kindly given you a 3 month rent holiday, but you have now realised that you are going to spend at least 2 months in lockdown? Will you be able to pay the rent when it next falls due?

What if you run a cafe or restaurant? You now know your lockdown is going to be at least 7 weeks. It may be longer. We don’t know yet.

I heard that Marcus Lush was chastising callers last night who were complaining about the extra week of lockdown. I do not wish to be uncharitable, but let’s just say it is very easy for a radio host on full pay to sit on his backside and criticise those who are running out of money now. A bit more compassion for those who are doing it tough would have been appreciated, I am sure. Lots of people are already doing it tough.

Simon Bridges has also been heavily criticised for stating that he disagrees with the extension of lockdown. Whether you like him or not, and many on this site do not, Simon is right about this. National is a much bigger friend to business than Labour ever will be, and he is looking at the situation from an economic perspective. And so should we all be, because the economic crisis is going to be catastrophic.

The IMF estimates that the coming recession will be 30 times worse than the GFC. 30 times. I cannot even begin to picture how bad this is going to be. People are being told all over the place that they no longer have a job, but this really is just the start of the meltdown. At 30 times worse than the GFC, we will see failing banks, insurance companies, airlines, large corporations, big franchises. We are already watching media companies going to the wall. Yes, they may deserve it, but they employ people. Lots of people, who may all be out of work soon.

It will be easy for fast food outlets to gear up for Level 3 from next Tuesday, but spare a thought for the independent cafes and restaurants that rely on a dining-in experience. Some will try their best to tap into the contactless takeaway market. Many will never open again because of this.

Jacinda is kidding herself if she thinks that we can eliminate the virus, even though she admits she does not know what ‘eliminate’ means. The Spanish Flu started in 1918, had another wave in 1919 and yet another in 1920. Are we going to be in lockdown for 3 years?

Looking across the ditch, Australia never went into full lockdown but their results have been similar, if not better than ours. Both countries have 3 deaths per million of population, which is a very low number. But New Zealand has 300 cases per million, whereas Australia has only 59. Yet in Australia, schools remain open, takeaway services have been open throughout, most people are at work and personal services such as hairdressers have been operating without a break. Simon Bridges tried to ask why we are not doing the same thing, and was rubbished for it. But now I want to ask the same question. If Australia can avoid lockdown and still have few cases, then why can’t we?

Our biggest earner, tourism, is already on life support, and that will have a devastating effect on the economy on its own. We probably cannot avoid that, at least for a while. But do we really have to damage so many other industries, so many small businesses? I do not wish to make light of a single death from COVID-19, but unless we get the country back to work soon, the pandemic will look like a walk in the park compared to the economic cost. And that, I fear, will never justify the actions that our government feels they are right to be taking now.

 

 

[rdytdy 5,341]

And our compliant MSM believe everything Ardern says without doing any checking:

Fact Check of the PM’s 20 April COVID -19 Presentation

Note these are not necessarily taken verbatim from the Prime Minister’s speech, but capture the substance of what was said.

Transmission rate

New Zealand’s current transmission is 0.48 compared to the world rate of 2.5.

Assessment: False

An assessment of the world rate can be obtained from the New York Times’ figure of worldwide new cases. It shows a slight downward movement of new cases so the transmission, or reproduction rate, is likely to below 1.

The 2.5 appears to be a commonly used estimate of the reproduction rate if no efforts are made to curtail the rate, and population behaviour does not spontaneously change. It should not be confused with the effective reproduction rate that the Prime Minister was referring to.

The BFD.

Number of cases per 10,000

New Zealand has one of the lowest number of cases per 100,000 of population.

Assessment: False

Worldometer, a commonly used source for tracking coronavirus outcomes, presents data on the number of cases per million of population for 210 states and territories. On 20 April 2020 135 had a lower rate than New Zealand.

Number of deaths

We may be one of a small number of countries where the numbers are small.

Assessment: False

Worldometer (21 April) reports 119 states and territories that had 12 or fewer deaths.

Containing the pandemic

We have done what very few countries have managed to do; we have stopped a wave of devastation.

Assessment: False

Assessing what constitutes stopping a ‘wave of devastation’ is open to interpretation. A large number of countries have not had a ‘wave of devastation’, and have bought the virus under control with a transmission rate of less than 1, so devastation is unlikely. A ‘wave of devastation’ could be defined as a per capita number of deaths that is a multiple of the season flu. In New Zealand the MOH reports that there are an average of 500 influenza deaths a year, a death rate of 100 per million. Assuming five times that rate is a ‘wave of devastation’, the required death rate per million is 500. At present 17 countries report a death rate of over 100 and most have a transmission rate below one. A handful of more advanced countries have already passed 500, or are likely to do so, projecting forward their case numbers. It is difficult to forecast what will play out in the developing world.

Mortality rates

New Zealand has one of the lowest mortality rates in the world (according to the Oxford University Response Tracker)

Assessment: False.

The Oxford University Response Tracker reports an index of government actions to control the coronavirus. There does not appear to be any country information on mortality rates on the site. There is a tracker that compares case numbers with the stringency level by country. Worldometer data (20 April 2020) shows that New Zealand had the 94th lowest mortality rate of reported countries and territories. Some of the countries are at an earlier stage in the pandemic, and their mortality rate will rise in the future. But on the current facts, the statement is clearly false.

Testing rates

New Zealand has one of the highest testing rates in the world

Assessment: False

New Zealand ranked 28th on the Worldometer (21 April 2020) measure of cumulative tests per million of population.

a-fact-check-of-the-prime-minstere28099s-20-april-coronavirus-presentation-ian-harrisonDownload

 

[rdytdy 5,341]

A Government Bereft of Reality

By JC

With Monday’s announcement on moving to level three next Tuesday the adding of an extra week to level four shows complete ignorance of how business operates, the overheads involved, staff costs, compliance costs and the slim margins they operate on. As Bob Jones has pointed out in his last couple of articles, noting Roger Douglas’s comments about incoming Labour Governments. Their backgrounds are rarely commercial, but from academia, unions and the like. Most since the war have been out of Government for a considerable time so tend to rely heavily on ‘experts’. This is what has happened in the current crisis. I have a problem with where they have sourced their advice. It’s been from academia.

The Government has barely consulted business at all through this crisis. Fran O’Sullivan says it’s time for business journalists to be included in the daily pressers. She’s right. They should have been there from the start. All Jacinda has allowed in are her political leftie luvvies. No hard questions there. Letting the business journalists loose would be the equivalent of having to go back home to Mummy to practice with the cabbage. In other words, beyond her ken. Without having to field questions beyond her comprehension she can be the ringmaster of the Jacinda Ardern daily circus. Better that than look the clown. Which raises the question – is the Minister of Health still around or is he the circus’s disappearing act? After beaching and biking, he seems to be setting a perfect example of self isolating.

 

The BFD. Photoshopped image credit Pixy

I hear on Newstalk ZB that Grant Robertson took no advice on the effect this latest decision would have particularly on small to medium businesses. He appears to have simply agreed with the decision made. Looking at Robertson’s professional life, the nearest he has come to an understanding of small businesses was while with MFAT running the NZ Aid programme to Samoa. This included the development of small businesses. Hmm. This is how the Government has operated from the outset. A tiny cabal of we know best politicians making all the decisions.

Parliament should have been in session throughout. The big decisions should have been debated with the whole House involved. The reasons for not doing so are fairly apparent. The last thing a bunch of academics and unionists want is to be shown up by those on the other side who have a better understanding of the business issues involved. The likes of Seymour, Goldsmith and Woodhouse.

It’s a disgrace the way this crisis has been handled.

Deborah Russell, a Labour MP, was on ZB yesterday exclaiming that she can’t understand why businesses are in so much trouble after just four or five weeks. Let’s look at her background shall we? She has worked in the private sector as an accountant, and in the public sector as a policy analyst. Russell has lectured in universities in both Australia and New Zealand in taxation, ethics, business ethics, political theory and philosophy. She was a senior lecturer specialising in taxation at Massey University. Wow! What a perfect fit for the Labour Party. With all that experience behind her and she still can’t understand why businesses are hurting. I certainly wouldn’t want her as my accountant.

Russell fits Roger Douglas’s description perfectly. These people are clueless of the practicalities of, and potential difficulties that can arise in operating a business. They are all theory and have no idea of what actually happens on the front line. It is my belief that when the dust has settled on all of this, when the repercussions start to kick in, when the chickens come home to roost, Jacinda and her bunch of derelict colleagues will have some difficult questions to answer. There needs to be a public realisation of what has played out. The resultant fallout may turn out to be less than palatable for the Government.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[firepipe 70]

Deborah ignorant bitch Russel. What a kick in the teeth for all struggling small business, subbies etc that choose to work, for not a huge profit but have more pride than sit on their  a/holes.So far out of touch/ depth, just sums up the incredible, incompetent, attention seeking idiots pretending to run this country. 

[Gruff 2,790]

Everyone is saying how good Cindy is at talking to the Public, shes got a Bachelor of Communications for f#%ksake, makes her the perfect mouthpiece for the Real people making the decisions. You can see a high profile World position looming when the UN take Control. 

[chevy86 2,704]

1 hour ago, Gruff said:

Everyone is saying how good Cindy is at talking to the Public, 

Not everyone Gruff. At the very least she needs to pop back to Morrinsville College where Mr Inger can organise some remedial speech lessons, mostly alerting her to what are "Ts" and what are 'Ds". And after nailing that she can practise wiping that stupid grin off her face which acts as her mask to disguise her shortcomings.