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Hooton on Jacinda’s living nightmare

It’s early days, but Jacinda Ardern risks being the first one-term Prime Minister since Walter Nash.

Eighteen years ago, Helen Clark’s Government was about to be confronted by the Winter of Discontent. The next eight years are a warning not to prematurely predict a Prime Minister’s early demise.

 

There is a big difference between what Matthew Hooton is saying there and the current government. Helen Clark was a competent politician and manager of people. Secondly, her caucus feared her and her Chief of Staff Heather Simpson. Thirdly, Clark knew how to cut throats. He adds:

Still, the speed with which stuff-ups, miscommunications and genuine scandals are now piling up against Jacinda Ardern’s Government is unprecedented.

In just two weeks, there have been at least eight, all either woefully mishandled by Ardern or reflecting the inherent instability of the first Government reliant on both NZ First and the Greens.

The Government’s only silver lining is that the issues are emerging so quickly they may crowd one another out in the public mind. To re-cap events since March 11:

• Labour’s management of the sexual assault allegations at its youth camp was, to quote Clark, “unbelievable”. That is exactly the word to describe general secretary Andrew Kirton’s version of events, yet Ardern has held no one to account.

• Dithering after Theresa May called for solidarity following the Salisbury attack suggested Ardern is afraid of her own Foreign Minister and reluctant to assert herself as the nation’s chief diplomat. Her later announcement there are no undeclared Russian intelligence agents in New Zealand was mocked by the world’s media for its naivety.

• Ardern broke prime ministerial precedentto greet 50 Greenpeace activists on Parliament’s forecourt, telling them the end of oil and gas exploration is nigh. That afternoon she told the media the opposite and by morning talked of exploration continuing until 2046. Politicians often say different things to different audiences but not usually on the same afternoon in front of the same TV cameras.

• Shane Jones’ popular attack on Air New Zealand was good politics for NZ First but Ardern’s weak admonishment of her minister is a joke in NZ First circles, encouraging future flamboyance from her coalition partner.

• Phil Twyford’s weekend announcement of a “medium density” development in Mt Albert lacked the credibility even of Nick Smith’s pronouncements during his ill-fated term as housing tsar. Twyford’s claim the new Government will build up to 4000 homes on just 29ha of land — with site efficiency of 63 per cent once roads, parks, shops and schools are taken into account — suggests population density comparable with Mumbai and six times that at Auckland’s controversial Hobsonville Pt. With the plan requiring zoning changes, consent hearings and utility installation on bare land, Twyford’s suggestion he will be putting the key in the door of the first houses next year indicates he has absolutely no idea of what is involved.

• Little-known NZ First MP Jenny Marcroft attracted attention after allegations she claimed to be speaking on behalf of ministers when threatening National MP Mark Mitchell over provincial growth fund projects in his electorate — but Ardern has made only perfunctory inquiries over the allegations.

Ardern’s failure to sack Broadcasting Minister Clare Curran for being — on the most charitable interpretation — less than forthcoming with the truth over her dealings with an RNZ middle manager over the controversial $38 million RNZ+ proposal constrains her from acting decisively against future bad behaviour by ministers. Ardern risks further humiliation as more information emerges next week.

Ardern’s decision to become personally involved in the nurses’ pay dispute by advancing yet another “independent panel” will heighten public-sector wage expectations at a time the Government is already up against its fiscal limits. Expect nurses and teachers strikes through winter.

Wow, that is some list of woes. From what I can gather the ‘Cyclone’ Curran will continue for some time. Labour are planning on brazening it out. National, however, are planning on drip feeding it for as long as possible in order to prolong Ardern and Curran’s agony. Hooton explains some core differences between Clark’s government and Ardern’s:

Clark of course recovered from her Winter of Discontent, starting with her so-called smoked salmon offensive. But the conditions in 2018 are different. Clark’s Government was not reliant on parties to both its left and right.

Moreover, after Clark’s years protecting the public health system from the Rogernomes in the Lange-Palmer Government, her knifing of Mike Moore in 1993 and her humbling of Michael Cullen during the aborted leadership coup of 1996, there was never any doubt she was almost always the smartest person in the room and certainly the toughest.

Hooton is right; Helen Clark was tough. She simply cut the throats of troublemakers. All Ardern does is grimace at them and throw out the odd worried expression squeezed out of her botoxed forehead. Hooton finishes:

Ardern may yet come back from the Easter break refreshed and ready to restore a semblance of control. Her next problem, though, is that she will soon be going on maternity leave, putting the unpredictable Winston Peters in charge.

I doubt it. After Easter there are two more weeks of parliament and the drip feed. Then, of course, there will be the naming of the alleged sexual assault attacker from Labour’s youth camp.

Jacinda Ardern does not look happy. Spinning ’round and ’round on her big chair in her office isn’t fun anymore.

 

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Most of the noise is coming from List MPs

By GP

If ever one required evidence that democracy is not the virtuous remedy to governance, then the current political environment in this country provides remarkable verification. It is said, democracy must be a failure because it places authority amongst the most ignorant. And with this current mob never a truer word was spoken. It has not gone unnoticed that most of the noise is coming from list MPs. They are the most ignorant and the least desired by an intellectual electorate.

 

 

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List MP Chloe Swarbrick protesting overseas on the taxpayer’s dollar

Examples of these are Peters, Jones, Marks and Marcroft, all NZF list MPs and Genter, Ghahraman and Swarbrick, all Green MPs. This distinguished lineup are in the COL Government, they actually have authority over us. They are funded by us and spend our money with the forlorn hope that it may purchase intelligence but sadly, our money’s gone, they remain ignorant and we feel ripped off.

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Green list MP Marama Davidson at a protest hugs immigrant from South Africa, BDS activist Justine Sachs, demonstrating that she is ignorant of Whaleoil’s third rule of politics.

But things get worse under democracy. It is hard to believe there were enough stupid people in several electorates that chose to have the likes of Ardern, Coffey, Mahuta, Hopkins, Twyford, Davis and Robertson charged with running the country! Not one has a clue. But that doesn’t bother them. They spend even more of our millions farming out their ignorance to others who review, enquiry, write reports, chair commissions, and generally do the work that is beyond this hopeless mob.

It is like sitting an exam and having someone else answer the questions! There is no leadership. Therein lies the issue. A cyclist suddenly is put in charge of a Jumbo Jet. What could possibly go wrong? Crash and burn, that’s what. Two of the four engines are in flames but relax, there’s a socialist in charge. I will leave you with this, and I’m afraid that’s our lot right now with this mob.

Democracy and socialism have nothing in common but one word, equality. But notice the difference: while democracy seeks equality in liberty, socialism seeks equality in restraint and servitude.

– Alexis de Tocqueville

 

 
 
 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 

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Hosking on Jacinda’s litany of ongoing problems

Hosking says:

I am sure it was one of those throw away witticisms, but the Prime Minister on my show on Tuesday in trying but failing to answer questions about New Zealand First MP Jenny Marcroft, defended her lack of knowledge or actions by suggesting she had enough trouble keeping her own lot in line, far less that of other parties.

Not an unfair point, but missing perhaps the irony that her last major problem had been a bloke called Jones, who was in fact from the same party as Marcroft.

But more on that shortly.

I wondered at the time if she might be referring that morning to the story that, as yet, hadn’t broken, over her Broadcasting Minister Clare Curran who has found herself in the midst of a scandal that’s seen the resignation of Carol Hirschfeld, she of St John Alarms fame and Radio New Zealand.

Hirschfeld has all the time now to pursue the world of advertorials given she is toast at the public broadcaster.

But Curran has some serious questions to answer.  

 

Yes, she does, and her performance yesterday in the house was yet another travesty.

Hosking continues:

Why muddy the waters about meetings, and no matter what the answers turn out to be, this is yet another bad look for a government and a headache for the Prime Minister.

This Government looks loose, it looks ropey, and Ardern can try to distance herself as much as she likes by playing the technicality card of separate parties, but ultimately a coalition is a coalition and they sink or swim together.

The Shane Jones drama with Air New Zealand is slightly less damaging, to the extent that although telling people to “get back in their box” and calling for sackings, while a mile over the line, did in fact strike a chord with regional New Zealand. So it’s entirely possible that Jones feels emboldened by it all, despite his telling off by Jacinda which, let’s be honest, to call it pathetic would be to enhance its alleged effect.

Then we come to Marcroft, a woman Winston Peters would have us believe of her own volition simply got out of bed, rang Mark Mitchell, called a meeting, invented a minister she was representing, and then proceeded in said meeting to heavy him over the regional fund, as overseen by the aforementioned Jones.

Panicking, she texts Mitchell telling him to forget everything. That of course was her biggest mistake because in doing so she created a paper trail she can’t hide from.

Peters issues a statement that says no minister was involved, so Jenny just did it all by herself.

Ask your 10 best friends if any of them believe that and come back to me if you find more than two.

I couldn’t find any. Hosking continues:

Then of course there was the party, the youth conference where the scandal season this Government is enduring first started.

So in a couple of weeks, we have the youth camps and alleged sexual assault, a minister being reprimanded for bullying corporates, a backbench MP heavying an Opposition MP over a publicly funded regional development scheme worth billions which the Government swears is above board and beyond politics, and a minister immersed in dealings involving millions more going towards what most would describe as their favoured broadcaster.

To say this isn’t a good look is to provide the sort of spin not even Winston could drum up with a straight face. This Government looks amateurish, disorganised, unprofessional and increasingly out of their depth.

The government that has more headlines around mess than policy is not a government that lasts long.

And once the rot sets in, it’s nigh on impossible to shake — ask Malcolm Turnbull or Theresa May.

For a Government that started out with such a sparkling honeymoon, it has managed to put it so far in the distance you could almost call it the good old days. But we’re only five months in, and if the wheels aren’t coming off, they are loose, and it isn’t even winter yet.

It was a government built on nothing more than Koolaid, pixie dust and slogans. There was no policy and now they are making it up as they go along with all the predictable mess that comes from that.

 

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The fall of the fairy princess

by Christie on March 30,
 

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It is really quite astounding how quickly the local media have turned from fawning to frowning over our newly minted Prime Minister. She hasn’t been in the job six months yet, but she is being criticised for being weak, indecisive and generally not up to the job. For a country with a largely left-leaning media, this is surprising indeed.

Matthew Hooton has come out today and said that he thinks she will be the first one-term Prime Minister since Walter Nash. I will be amazed if she makes it as far as the next election. I think she will be gone by the end of the year.

 

Helen Clark was known as the Teflon Princess throughout her first two terms. Her popularity was high throughout this time. Admittedly, in anyone’s book, Helen was no princess, but she was strong, decisive and consistent  a good leader who ruled with a rod of iron, and she was admired for that.

Jacinda accepted a petition from Greenpeace to stop drilling for oil and gas one minute and then, in the same afternoon, said it will be business as usual in the industry until 2046. How’s that for consistency? It demonstrates that she has none. It also demonstrates that she doesn’t have a clue what she is doing. But, it creates uncertainty, and business hates uncertainty.

Another area where she has been criticised recently is her taking advantage of her position to do things she has always wanted to do. Her invitation to Ed Sheeran to have tea at her home makes her look like a teenager giggling over a pop star. She is the Prime Minister. She is supposed to be running the country.

A lot of people criticised John Key for similar things but, in truth, the two of them are miles apart. Every photo opportunity for John Key was a chance to promote New Zealand. He was the Minister of Tourism, remember. His appearances on the Letterman show, or mincing down a catwalk in a sports uniform, were intended to raise the profile of the country. You may think he had a funny way of doing it. A lot of people criticised him for it. But where is the benefit to New Zealand in the Prime Minister having Ed Sheeran over for tea? There isn’t one. He is here, but he is not staying. He is touring, which is something that pop stars do. No. In doing this, she is just taking advantage of her position to meet famous people whom she likes. That is not what the role of Prime Minister is about at all.

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Whatever else you say about John Key, he was Prime Minister first, and Minister of Tourism second. He knew how to run a Government.

Most people, including the media, are now getting impatient: waiting to see her doing her job of actually running the country. She has ministers riding roughshod all over her. She reels from crisis to crisis without having a clue how to deal with them.

Clare Curran is now being openly mocked as the Minister for Open Government. Shane Jones basically gave her the finger when she admonished him for his outbursts over Air New Zealand. The Young Labour sex scandal hasn’t gone away. And the international media is openly mocking Jacinda for saying we would expel Russian spies from New Zealand if we could find any. Someone on Twitter suggested that maybe she doesn’t realise that no one writes ‘spy’ as their occupation on their arrival form. The world is laughing at her and, in turn, laughing at us.

I guess that, eventually, Jacinda had to learn that being Prime Minister isn’t all ‘Vogue’ photo shoots, wearing Kiwi-made clothing and taking tea with Ed Sheeran. At some point she is expected to actually get down to the job of running the country. She doesn’t seem to have got there yet. But, time is ticking and, if the media are anything to go by, it has already started to run out for Jacinda.

 

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Heather gives Jacinda another flogging

The pile on against Jacinda Ardern continues as media commentators realise that she is all mouth and no trousers.

Heather du Plessis-Allan gets in on the action at the Herald on Sunday:

You have to question the Prime Minister’s judgment.How good is she at running this ship? It’s now impossible not to ask that question.

The Government has had three weeks of car crash problems and Jacinda Ardern dropped the ball virtually every time.

The list of cock-ups in three weeks is astounding. International headlines over the PM’s refusal to kick out Russian spies. National headlines over the Radio New Zealand snafu. Allegations of blackmail threats over regional slush fund money. The PM’s mixed messages on the future of oil and gas exploration. The Labour Summer Camp stuff up.

The impression is the new Government is at best naive, at worst (in at least one situation) potentially corrupt. Every crisis has created the sense Government MPs are still trying to figure out how to be in Government, still acting like they’re in Opposition.

The buck always stops with the PM. And it’s hard to give her bouquets for the way she has handled things.

End of quote.

Having heated conversations with journalists who write bad things about you is how Jacinda is “handling” this. I expect Heather will have received a phone call yesterday morning. Helen Clark might have put feet into journalists, but Jacinda Ardern doesn’t.

Heather continues:

Take the Russian spies. That was a rookie mistake. Ardern should have expelled Russian diplomats as soon as the Australians did. It doesn’t matter whether they’re spies or not. That misses the point.

The point was to send a message we stand with the UK in its condemnation of Russia. Instead, New Zealand was the only member of Five Eyes not to act immediately. The incident was A-grade embarrassing on the world stage. New Zealand became the butt of international headlines.

On the allegations junior MP Jenny Marcroft held a National MP to ransom with public money, Ardern should have raised merry hell.

This is serious. It threatens the credibility of regional slush fund spends from now. The PM could have promised an investigation but she wrote it off as “he said she said” and appears to have given it little more than a once-over-lightly look.

There was Ardern’s back-of-the-net own goal. Out of thin air the PM created a problem by going out the front of Parliament to accept a petition from oil and gas protesters. Prime Ministers don’t do that. Helen Clark didn’t meet the thousands-strong Seabed and Foreshore hikoi. Ardern met a group of 50. At lunchtime she told protesters she was “actively considering” an end to oil and gas exploration, then totally reversed that statement by 4pm.

Over the Labour Summer Camp debacle Ardern should have demanded a head. In this column two weeks ago, I argued that is what Clark would have done. In an interview this week Clark hinted at exactly that. Asked how she would have reacted, she replied: “If you get out the book and ask, ‘What would Helen have done?’ … draw your own conclusions.” Failing to do so makes Ardern look weak.

By this week’s end, Ardern had one final chance. So much had gone wrong there was only one thing left to do and that was to show some strength. The opportunity was there in the Radio New Zealand snafu.

Ardern could have hauled Clare Curran over the coals about her private meeting with RNZ news boss Carol Hirschfeld. A good telling off would have shown Ardern’s mettle. But again, that didn’t happen. Ardern let Curran off with an apology.

End of quote.

What a catastrophe of a government; lurching from one crisis to the next and all self-inflicted. Princess Fairy-dust is hopeless when it comes to making hard decisions. She’s more used to mouthing slogans and doing photoshoots with friendly media. None of this nastiness for her.

Heather continues:

At times like these it’s easy to blame those who give the PM advice. Her officials, her media people, Winston Peters. But again, the buck stops with the PM. She must take advice, then decide the right course.

Remember the election campaign? Ardern’s captain’s call on tax was the only mistake Labour made. It nearly cost the party the election. The saving grace was her decision to reverse that captain’s call. You have to wonder at the PM’s judgment.

 

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So the Princess is now ringing journalists when she doesn't like what is being said it appears.

Stacey Kirk at Stuff has joined the pile on calling out the Prime Minister for a government that is lurching from one self-inflicted calamity to another.

There was always a risk of NZ First-induced migraines when the Prime Minister signed on the dotted line to form a Government with Winston Peters.

And political soothsayers have all had short odds on Broadcasting Minister Clare Curran being one of the weaker links within Labour’s own ranks.

In a triple bill of unnecessary political dramas this week, Jacinda Ardern has been forced to battle two fires that go to the heart of her Government’s transparencyand one that has left New Zealand the butt of international jokes. They’ve likely exacted a toll in the currency of Ardern’s political capital.   

 

End of quote.

The only political capital Ardern had was largely a media invention. What the media build the media can wreck. Kirk continues:

In the cliffhanger, Curran has faced a media firestorm following a meeting with Radio NZ executive Carol Hirschfeld that was initially denied outright, then downplayed by both women as “impromptu and unofficial” when uncovered by dogged questioning from National’s Melissa Lee.

That characterisation cost Hirschfeld her job, but Curran’s actions have raised major questions over the commitment to transparency being exercised by the Ardern Government.

The slowburner is the approach from Jenny Marcroft to National MP Mark Mitchell. She’s the hapless Fredo apparently sent by an anonymous NZ First Minister to make him an “offer he can’t refuse”, but she didn’t have the nous to realise the compromised position she was being placed in.

Trying to heavy the Opposition into silence by threatening to withhold Government funding for development projects in their electorates is about as mafioso as it gets; an image only compounded by the male caucus’ penchant for pinstripe suits and pocket squares.

Marcroft’s and her party’s saving grace appears to be that she is such a non-entity the threat holds no credibility without a minister to pin it on.

Ardern has sought and received assurances that no minister was behind the thuggish act, and is left with little choice but to take them at their word.

End of quote.

But OIA requests for ministers’ phones for calls or messages from Marcroft immediately after the threat will out that minister in a flash. Then we will see what that word looks like and how she will handle it.

The Russian fiasco shows why it is that Ardern shouldn’t be let loose on the international stage without a minder… and some duct tape. Kirk continues:

She has far more of a title role in the tragicomedy playing out over the Russian spy scandal. Ardern and Foreign Minister Winston Peters were looking to be on the right side of history albeit a week late, after finally coming out with a strong statement against a Russian chemical attack on British soil.

New Zealand stood behind the UK it seemed, until it came time to prove it with action and expel those from the embassy, or otherwise, who might be involved in the collection of intelligence – or spying.

Out of the countries who have pledged support, New Zealand is the only one to have not expelled anyone. Ardern’s reasoning: ‘there are no undeclared spies in New Zealand’.

Cue international headlines: “New Zealand says it would expel Russian spies… but it can’t find any”.

As a Five Eyes partner, that there is no one in the business of Russian intelligence in New Zealand seems a stretch and the rest of the world knows it.

End of quote.

Jacinda Ardern is hoping and praying they can find a reason to delay OIA requests until she is safely away on leave. What those OIA requests show may determine how long she stays away. That will leave Winston Peters dealing with the mess that Jacinda Ardern left behind and he won’t hesitate to sack lying ministers.

The pressure is showing. Scowly face Jacinda has replaced relentlessly positive Jacinda.

Meanwhile the media have discovered that the Princess they built up is nothing but a facade. She is being found wanting, and doesn’t take criticism well, which is why she is calling up journalists and whining about their columns. That strategy has never worked, ever. Jacinda Ardern simply doesn’t scare anyone, much less a stroppy journalist.

 

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Now Labour wants to introduce a nationwide fuel tax.F..k me what next.

Oh thats right my local left leaning  council want to put up my rates by 9.5% for the next 2 years and then 3.8% for the next 8 years.

Soon it will become to prohibitive to own your own property.

How can you encourage home ownership by doing this.

One good thing politician are good at is speding other peoples money.

 

 

 

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37 minutes ago, crustyngrizzly said:

Now Labour wants to introduce a nationwide fuel tax.F..k me what next.

Oh thats right my local left leaning  council want to put up my rates by 9.5% for the next 2 years and then 3.8% for the next 8 years.

Soon it will become to prohibitive to own your own property.

How can you encourage home ownership by doing this.

One good thing politician are good at is speding other peoples money.

 

 

 

Yes and they have announced the major roading networks are not going to be completed. so the proposed 4 lane highway over the Kaimais is gone burger, the improvement from Tauranga to Katikati looks gone as well. 2 major death trap roads now set to remain unchanged.

only just over 2.5yrs left though Crusty at the worst,  at the current rate of form a general election is likely in next 12 months.

 

Isn't the current Mayor of Hamilton the worst fella ever elected, thank god I didn't vote for him, he's almost certainly a 1 term clown as well.

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Have you bought a bike yet Hesi?

The media pile on continues

By CS

 
 

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Heather du Plessis-Allan continues to put the boot into this hapless and inept government:

Yes it’s a tax.

The Prime Minister can dance on the head of a pin as much as she likes in a weak bid to defend hiking the petrol tax but she’s going to get nowhere. The damage is done.

This will hurt Labour in a huge way.

Here’s the problem. Jacinda Ardern and her finance minister promised no new taxes under Labour.   

This is what Grant Robertson said in September last year: “There will be no new taxes or levies introduced in our first term of Government beyond those we have already announced.”

When challenged about this new tax, Ardern said it’s not new, the levy has been around for ages and National hiked it plenty when it was in government.

And she says it’s not a tax, it’s an excise.

Wrong. End of quote.

Dead wrong. It is a tax and everyone knows it is a tax. When Jacinda Ardern says it is an excise she has forgotten a word that comes after the word excise… that word is tax. Even our own Customs Service calls it a tax. They’ve broken their tax promise and it only took six months.

Heather continues:

Firstly is it a tax? Yes it’s a tax.

An excise is, and I’m quoting from a dictionary, a TAX levied on certain goods and commodities produced or sold within a country and on licences granted for certain activities. So yes, it’s a tax.

Is it new?

Of course it’s new. Today I’m not paying that extra 9-12 cents in tax.When it comes into force, I will be paying it – it’s new. It’s an added tax on my income. The idea might not be new but that bit of tax I’m paying? That’s new.

If she hikes GST to 20 per cent… is that new? Yes.

If she hikes the capital gains tax which already exists… will that be new? Yes,

If she hikes corporate tax… will that be a new tax? Yes.

Because it’s a tax you’re not paying now. It’s a new one.

I cannot actually believe that this is the level of the argument we’re having. That is how crap the PM’s defence of this tax is.

It’s weak, totally flimsy. And you know what that tells you?

This is the day Labour lost the 2020 election. Because people don’t care what beltway issues Labour has to fight fires on but they do care when those issues start hitting them in the pocket.

And this issue is not just going to hit some of us in the pocket, it’s going to hit all of us in the pocket.

So when you fill your car up and you’re paying $2.30 instead of $2.10, you’ll know who to blame – Labour.

Not a smart political move. End of quote.

Aucklanders will be hit more than most. If you want to govern you need to win Auckland. Socking motorists to pay for footpaths, cycleways and a stupid tram to the airport won’t resonate well in Auckland, nor will it resonate on the streets of Palmerston North, Rotorua, Kaitaia or anywhere else where people won’t be able to get a tram to the airport.

Labour have fallen under the thrall of wombles and lunatics. They should sit beside a few cycle lanes that are hogging our roads and count the number of people actually using them. They won’t challenge all the fingers on one hand in doing so.

 

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The great leap backwards begins as government bans oil and gas exploration in New Zealand

By CS

 
 

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In what can only be described as an act of economic sabotage and treason, the government has moved to ban oil and gas exploration.

The Herald reports:

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has banned future offshore oil and gas exploration in New Zealand.

The only exploration likely to be contemplated by the new Government is on-shore exploration, limited to energy-rich Taranaki.

“We’re protecting industry and protecting future generations from climate change,” said Ardern. End quote.

 

Rubbish. The ban just means those industries are dead in NZ, and those skilled workers will move offshore to continue employment and we will increase our imports of oil and coal. This has nothing to do with climate change and just harms our own economy.

We will instead be pouring billions of dollars into the pockets of rich Arabs while our natural mineral wealth lies unused. Ardern says this is about the future:

Ardern and the ministers are expected to outline plans for their version of a managed transition towards a carbon-neutral economy by 2050 and a goal of achieving 100 per cent renewable electricity by 2035. End quote.

Yeah? And how are all those electric car owners faring in Auckland with four days of power outages. Even if you accept the premise that this is about the future, what about the present?

National points out:

The Government’s decision to ban gas and petroleum exploration is economic vandalism that makes no environmental sense, National MPs Jonathan Young and Todd Muller says.

“This decision will ensure the demise of an industry that provides over 8000 high paying jobs and $2.5 billion for the economy,” Energy and Resources Spokesperson Jonathan Young says.

“Without exploration there will be no investment in oil and gas production or the downstream industries. That means significantly fewer jobs.

“This decision is devoid of any rationale. It certainly has nothing to do with climate change. These changes will simply shift production elsewhere in the world, not reduce emissions.

“Gas is used throughout New Zealand to ensure security of electricity supply to every home in New Zealand. Our current reserves will last less than ten years – when they run out we will simply have to burn coal instead, which means twice the emissions.

“The Government says that existing wells will continue but that’s code for winding the sector down. End quote.

This also appears to contrast Winston Peters previous statements on the issue, which it is fair to say are confusing at the very least.

Helen Clark once famously described protestors as “wreckers and haters”. It now appears that the label should apply to this government.

This government is more intent on slogans and virtue-signalling than anything else. It seems Twitter and online petitions carry more sway with them and anything that is hard or they don’t know what they want to do yet gets shunted to a inquiry or working group.

I should have thought a decision as large as this should have gone to a working group at the very least. But no, it seems the government is beholden not only to unions but also environmental terrorists like Greenpeace.

 

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Heard the now constantly frowning frau Jacinda on the news at midday discussing her upcoming audience with Liz at Bucks---for the 100th time she referenced her childhood in Morrinsville and the challenge of therefore knowing the correct "ettikwet" when meeting the Queen! I kid you not. (perhaps that clown Trudeau can help with the pronunciation when she meets him soon).

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Soper on oil and gas exploration ban

Cameron Slater on April 14, 2018 at 8:30am
 

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Barry Soper climbs into the government: Quote.

One of the leading lights in the oil and gas industry probably best summed it up – they’re going to have trouble encouraging foreign investment to New Zealand if there’s a big sign on the front lawn saying – Not Welcome.

It’s not so much what was done in banning all new exploration permits off our coasts, and there are currently 31 of them, it’s the way it was done.

Minister Megan Woods was like an energiser bunny defending the move saying it was “signposted” widely and should have come as no surprise.

One of the signposts was presumably the Prime Minister coming down from her 9th floor Beehive office a couple of weeks ago to accept an anti exploration petition.

There was no formal discussion with the industry about the Government’s plans, and to make matters worse, Jacinda Ardern turned to cheerleading Wellington university students who’d been trucked in for her to receive the adulation of creating her nuclear moment of this generation – climate change.

It wasn’t cynical she insists, it would have been if she wasn’t going to Taranaki, the pitface of exploration, in a couple of weeks to hear from them.

That’s a bit like putting the cart before the horse which is the mode of transport the hysterical Greens would probably prefer.

But this move sends all the wrong signals to business, this isn’t the way it should be done.

There should have been consultation rather than the sledge hammer approach. End quote.

 

I can assure the government that vast amounts of money are going to be poured into a hostile and brutal campaign to unseat them now. Quote.

The Greens were beside themselves while New Zealand First, which in the past has defended oil and gas exploration, looked as though they’d prefer to be elsewhere.

Their self proclaimed first citizen of the provinces Shane Jones was forced to take part in a snap debate on the issue, hardly mentioning the decision, but championing climate change skiting about planting a billion trees.

In reality this Government has closed the door on one of our top export earners, employing more than eleven thousand people, most of them in Taranaki where Jones visited last week, doling out twenty million bucks from his three billion dollar Provincial Growth Fund.

That was presumably another signpost for the locals with just $150,000 being spent on clean energy technology.

Oil isn’t just used to fuel our cars, technology sees it being adapted for hundreds of products from tyres to toothbrushes. So this move could end up costing the very people Labour seeks to protect.

And to suggest current permit holders will now all stick around drilling for a product that’s not wanted here would be like establishing a tobacconist in the Beehive.

Megan Woods proudly proclaimed she was wearing a jacket made out of wood yesterday. Visiting Taranaki with the PM shortly surely she’d be safer in an oilskin. End quote.

This government are tone deaf. They’ve launched several thousand inquiries, conversations and working groups, but on this there was nothing. This government are nothing more than slogans. It will hurt them.

It is madness to shut down an industry and hope and pray that someone comes up with something that will enable wholesale replacement of one of the most efficient energy sources we’ve ever known.

When these fools realise that electric cars without subsidies are prohibitively expensive, that the whole power grid will need upgrading in order to charge just a fraction of the electric cars they want used in NZ, at a cost of hundreds of billions of dollars, and that the Cook Strait cable can’t transport enough power to possibly supply the North Island, to replace oil and gas, then they are going to suffocate on those slogans. Even worse is that they will start to realise that the hole in the revenues filling the consolidated fund that is currently filled by the oil industry is going to need plugging somehow and that means tax increases.

Once people work out that this will end their summer BBQs and gas heating there will be an electoral riot.

 

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James Shaw says that the oil and gas industry should be investing in alternative fuel.

Hey James what are these investments you talk of.

Housing crisis.....8 months in and they have done nothing apart from having conversations and making pleasant sounding announcements.

What have they actually done?

This crisis was there before they came to power so obviously they didn't think it was a crisis then or else they would have been well prepared to do something when elected.

 

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The winter of our discontent

By Suze

Winter is upon us along with much discontent and stormy weather like the monster that ripped up the country this week removing roofs, upending trees and cutting power to a quarter of Auckland’s homes.  In the aftermath complaints were made that civil defence had failed to warn us of the destructive power of the impending super storm.

In similar fashion, this storm brews its own ugly dark clouds and we got no advance warning of its destructive power either. The fierce winds shriek and buffet us as we cower in our seats, knuckles white and eyes wide in disbelief.  We are all trapped on the bus run by the current coalition government. 

This bus is lurching steadily off-course and inevitably we know we will end up in the ditch.  

 

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Mutterings and grumblings about driver capability and road worthiness are not enough to stir anyone to get to their feet and challenge the driver.  Meekly it seems, we accept our fate, shouldering the responsibility for the curse of MMP.  Some of us put the blame fairly and squarely on Winnie for the current line up of largely inexperienced and naive politicians making horribly wrong decisions on our behalf.

Large amounts of money have been spent unnecessarily on reports by experts to plot our route through supposedly imminent hazards.  We are warned of the effects of global warming and plastic floating about in the sea killing marine life.  None of us want to kill the planet or its animals and so-called experts hold opposing opinions on the reasons for temperature increase.  Some politicians take a stance that justifies their existence but for others it’s a ploy to detract us from the real hazards needing attention. 

Nary a word is said about the changing face of our communities as immigration brings with it a culture totally incompatible with ours, and a great bunch of people prepared to work for money that is not a living wage in this country’s largest city, Auckland.  Not to worry, there’s always the dole to help those kiwis forced out of work.  As long as taxes are being paid by the new workers the government is happy because its coffers are being replenished. 

Election promises were made, most unfulfilled and some contradictory such as free driving lessons for secondary students, adding more vehicles to our already congested roads.  Correction, that was just a bribe to get the youth vote. But what about the election promise not to introduce any new taxes, a promise about to be swallowed up by a new fuel tax?

Our education professionals, mostly leaning to the left and now buoyed by leaders of the same persuasion, boast superior results.  To dispose of any evidence to the contrary they immediately set about decapitating the threatening alternative of charter schools and removing national standards, a significant measure of their success or failure.

Unions whine loudly into sympathetic ears, hands outstretched for their dues for getting this motley bunch seated on the throne.  If they haven’t already disrupted transport or hospitals through strike action for more money it’s only because their plans haven’t quite reached fruition.  We’ve not seen so many strikes in years and they’re not done yet.

Auckland has become intolerably congested with hundreds of new cars added to roads each week.  The solution, we are told, is to stop driving our cars and use the totally inadequate public transport system.  To further force us off the road, new highways planned several years ago, with funding already in place, have been scrapped with the stroke of a pen.

The latest nail in the coffin is the decision not to issue new oil and gas exploration permits.  The glaring hypocrisy of this decision clearly not evident to the decision makers who will continue to travel in planes and cars powered by fossil fuels.  The economic effect on the Taranaki community and the rest of the country is of zero consequence to them either. This self-righteous path will turn us into an environmental parasite on other nations where we purchase our oil and gas while bowing and scraping to countries like China with its environmental and economic global corruption.  

Twford announced on breakfast tv this week that NZ will lead the world in dispensing with fossil fuels.  With no viable alternatives in sight this makes me wonder what other harebrained, irresponsible and economically disastrous idea they can come up with next.

It’s a sorry state we are in less than six months after the driver leaped aboard with cheery wave and toothy grin.  Now she is about to jump off into maternity leave we are expected to trust her invisible deputy who over 90% of us didn’t want a bar of at the election.

Perish the thought that all is well, it’ll take some time to recover from this combination of manipulation and superb incompetence. They are like the Silver Ferns staring down the barrel of defeat while maintaining they can still win a medal on the back of poor performances.  There’s already one heck of a mess for any sensible politicians brave enough to clean up after this lot have finished wreaking their havoc.  Please, please let that be soon!

 

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So much for positive news over Jacinda’s ‘nuclear free moment’

By CS
 

Shanejones-facepalm.jpg

Labour and Jacinda Ardern haven’t had any positive press from their economic sabotage announcement on Thursday.

Jo Moir joins the columnists bad mouthing the government: Quote.

Nobody can say the Prime Minister isn’t serious about clean energy – she’s driving an electric car around Auckland – but yet again her Government is fighting fires in regional New Zealand because it got its delivery all wrong. End quote.

A $100,000 heavily subsidised mobile lithium bomb that not many could afford to buy, let alone maintain. Quote:

That expression “too many cooks spoil the broth” seems to be increasingly more fitting when it comes to the Labour/NZ First/Greens government, as all three parties continually butt heads over the best recipe for running the country.

NZ First voters will be starting to wonder what they signed up to after three recently announced policies resulted in a fairly sizeable kicking for regional Kiwis.

First it was taking money out of state highway construction in the regions to pay for rapid rail in Auckland.

Then it was winding down taxpayer subsidies for irrigation schemes and on Thursday Taranaki woke up wondering what it had done so wrong that meant future offshore oil and gas exploration permits were on the scrap heap.

Full disclaimer here: I’m a born and bred ‘Naki girl (my parents were in the white gold business) but living in Opunake you come pretty familiar with the darkest of nights being constantly lit up by the flames at Maui burning off gas 24/7.

That black and white gold is all that keeps Taranaki going and when there’s a drop in price or supply in one or the other the whole region suffers together.

There’s no argument that oil and gas exploration isn’t the answer to a sustainable future and transitioning to renewable energy is a given, but if you decide to mess around with one, you sure as hell need a good plan for the other. End quote.

Think Big was one of the things that Robert Muldoon actually got right, even if he was castigated for it at the time. Ironically, those dams built under Muldoon, which now provide the renewable energy these muppets rely upon, were opposed by the predecessor of the Green party. You won’t hear them praising up Muldoon. Yet it was his projects in Taranaki that gave us energy security, which the Greens and Labour want to now take away. Quote:

And that’s where the Government got it wrong this week – the messaging about why New Zealand needs to do its bit domestically by moving away from oil and gas exploration was fine, but the explanation of what it was being replaced with was non-existent.

Business and local government leaders in Taranaki want to lead the way on renewable energy when the time comes, but there’s a reason why New Plymouth Mayor Neil Holdom said the Government’s announcement was a “kick in the guts”.

Wanting to lead the way on the next big technology is one thing, but having a plan is another, and Holdom found himself in a situation not too dissimilar to being told we’re moving you out of your house but we don’t have another one for you to move into.

Yes the Government probably has about 30 years to work that out, but that’s not actually the point. End quote.

No, it’s not the point. When you look at our energy usage and supply you can see there is a massive shortage of what can be delivered with renewables. Inconvenient facts like precious little wind power (which can’t be delivered if there is no wind AND when there is too much wind), inefficient solar delivery in New Zealand, especially in winter, and a Cook Strait cable that can’t even remotely deliver enough power to where the population actually lives. Quote:

Taking a significant step like this requires a game plan and that’s something Jacinda Ardern has up until this point been very good at.

She understands optics and messaging and did a pretty decent job of both during their first 100 days.

But now that she’s announcing policies where she’s had to sit around the negotiating table with NZ First leader Winston Peters and Greens co-leader James Shaw both fighting to keep their own party relevant, the wheels are starting to fall off.

It’s understood the initial plan was to deliver Thursday’s announcement in Taranaki – that’s a smart play because what better way to fight fires than to be right there on the ground with a hose?

For whatever reason that plan went out the back window and Ardern, along with Shaw, Energy Minister Megan Woods and Regional Economic Development Minister Shane Jones, fronted media at Parliament on Thursday with the news.

For about five seconds it looked like Jones wasn’t going to front (I mean who would blame him) until he wandered into the press conference a few steps behind the other three.

Jones may have been saying what needed to be said as he fielded the bulk of the questions, but he managed to completely lose control of his facial expressions for a good half an hour as he rolled through very visible emotions ranging from ambivalent to exasperated.

This is the self-professed “Champion” and “First Citizen” of the regions who is pro-industry and only a few years ago was quoted saying: “Protesters need to bear in mind we are buying oil out of the Gulf of Mexico and other far-flung places when we should be focusing on making an industry in our own country”.

That’s some big dead rats being swallowed.

Jones then went with his colleagues up to Victoria University where the announcement was delivered to students lined up to get their selfie with Ardern. End quote.

Word from my sources is that Ardern and Shaw wanted to go much further, but Winston fought it at cabinet, necessitating some emergency negotiations Tuesday and Wednesday. Even so, NZ First are not happy, and neither are some in Labour. Jones was acting under instructions to ham it up at the press conference to make it clear NZ First weren’t happy. NZ First are waiting a few more weeks until Jacinda goes on leave, then, after the secret agreement kicks in, expect some changes… maybe not to this policy but certainly to how the government operate. Quote:

And where was National Party leader Simon Bridges? In New Plymouth of course for a pre-planned speech at a business conference. The timing couldn’t have been better.

Ardern and Jones were at a university with a bunch of students not too directly affected by the policy, while Bridges was visiting Fitzroy Engineering in New Plymouth and talking to industry leaders livid they hadn’t been consulted.

Cries from the industry that they didn’t know it was coming are a bit of a laugh after the whole announcement was made earlier than anticipated because of how many people it had leaked to.

The point oil and gas leaders are trying to make is they weren’t officially consulted.

That’s when the scrambling kicked in and Ardern got on the phone to her trusted senior Minister Andrew Little and presumably said something along the lines of, “mate, we’ve got a problem and I’m leaving the country for a couple of weeks and Jones doesn’t want to go to New Plymouth, so do you think you could pop up there? Thanks”.

Talk about drawing the short straw.

Little, who has failed twice to win the New Plymouth seat off National, had to suck it up and drive to Taranaki to face the music. Too little too late. End quote.

Good luck getting too many party votes for Labour and Greens in Taranaki come the next election. The fact that Jacinda Ardern thinks hobnobbing with Justin Trudeau, Jeremy Corbyn and the little French socialist is more important than visiting Taranaki says it all really.

 

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Jonathan Young is the local MP in New Plymouth. He is pretty mad as he writes in the Taranaki Daily News:. Quote:

I’m not disappointed – I’m angry!

A kick in the guts, a wrecking ball for the region, killing the golden goose. All these phrases express the emotional response to the Ardern-Peters Government’s announcement to end new offshore oil and gas exploration. Without doubt more bad news is still to come as the Green Party and Greenpeace make onshore exploration their next target.

This decision was made with zero consultation with the petroleum industry and there lies the problem.

Not only is it incredibly disrespectful to an industry that has supplied billions of dollars of revenue to the Government and the people of New Zealand, but it has meant that the Government has made a decision regarding the industry with little understanding of how it works.

The opportunity for a positive way forward gets lost in the disruption and destruction of business confidence they have created. The Government may think they have attacked the problem, but unfortunately, they have attacked the solution.

As National’s Energy and Resources spokesperson I would support a transfer of knowledge, skills and investment into the greening of the petroleum industry rather than ending it.

Apart from 50 per cent of all oil produced being for environmentally benign purposes, we should continue to pursue the goal of utilising hydrocarbons as feedstock for ultra-low or zero emission fuels.

Research is already underway for this, such as methanol, and hydrogen. There is a tremendous amount of research taking place on improving engine and fuel efficiency. The petroleum sector has some of the smartest people in the country when it comes to understanding carbon and molecules. Utilising their knowledge and skills here and collaborating with other industry-based research is the smart thing to do.

The Ardern-Peters Government has made a significant misstep in their approach. New Zealand has 10 years of known gas supply left. We haven’t had a gas discovery for eight years. With existing exploration hoping to make a discovery, it has a 10-15% chance of success.

When a discovery is made, it will take a further ten years of development before gas is available for market. Just do the math, without considering any chilling effect on investment the Government’s decision has created, we should get ready for a gasless future.  End quote.

 

When the BBQs of voters can’t be used, the government of the day is cooked. Quote:

With every fifth day of our electricity generated from fossil fuels, mostly gas – we have a problem.When electricity demand increases because of the growth of electric vehicles in New Zealand, we have a compounded problem.Wind and solar energy might contribute, but both are intermittent. This will require overbuild and capacity charging, leading to higher electricity prices. With gas possibly gone, and any shortfall in renewables, we’re left with coal to keep our lights on. Emissions will likely rise rather than fall.

Considering New Zealand’s contribution to world Green House Gas emissions is 0.17% of the total, our energy emissions (including electricity generation and transport) is 40 per cent of that 0.17 per cent.

If the petroleum industry was to completely disappear tomorrow, then our emissions profile will remain unchanged as we import crude for all our liquid fuels. What we sell overseas will be sold by someone else, as supply exceeds demand. No change here both domestically or globally.

If we were able to replace half of our liquid fuel fleet with zero emission electric vehicles, we’d be down to 0.136 per cent of the world’s emissions. The sobering truth is our reductions will get swallowed up by the massive increase of emissions in a growing and developing Asia. So, while we work hard to do our essential bit, world emissions increase for some time yet.

We ought to be realistic about being “world leaders” as James Shaw wants. Norway are world leaders, but they do that through giving all electric vehicles free electricity for life, free parking and exemption from any congestion taxes, arguably afforded through their wealth derived from oil production. 

World emissions are set to increase for a while yet, which is why I think we must take a global and rational approach. We should find more gas and export it to Asia. We should encourage the industry rather than close it down. It’s counter-intuitive, but it works!

Gas replacing coal is one of the key reasons why energy emissions stalled in their growth in 2014, 2015 and 2016 according to the International Energy Agency.

James Shaw has said no to that, because according to the Paris Accord, the market for gas is going to dry up and no one will need it. That’s an unrealistic proposal. The IEA have said in 2050, 50 per cent of world energy will still be fossil fuel based. 

It’s time for Ardern-Peters Government to pull their head out of the sand and talk to the people who understand the challenge. Stop attacking the solution. End quote.

They won’t because they are zealots. They think we need a great leap backwards, ignoring all the positives that fossil fuels have delivered to society. They are wreckers and haters. New Zealand’s economy is going to suffer because the signal they’ve sent is that, on a whim and a few protestors rocking up to parliament, our prime minister will trash an industry.

I bet Grant Robertson hasn’t looked at the impact this decision is going to have on his consolidated fund. When he works it out, and Treasury officials may need to crack out the crayons, then he is going to be very worried indeed. He won’t have to look far to see the problems. Just ask the ALP members in South Australia what is going to happen next.

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The lunacy of the oil and gas decision

By CS

 
 

pohokura-034.jpg

I’m not sure that anyone in the current government has bothered to read the reports their ministries provide on the oil and gas sector.

If they did read the reports they’d find out that:

  • Petroleum & Minerals is the highest growth in GDP over past 10 years; which makes it the highest contribution to productivity – GDP $330/hour worked.
  • The next biggest sector is Utilities at $210/per hour worked. Utilities also use the output from the oil and gas sector.
  • Petroleum & mInerals is also the sector with the fastest goods export growth

 

Screen-Shot-2018-04-15-at-9.29.13-PM.png

According to another MBIE site: Quote.

The petroleum and minerals industries:

  • create highly skilled and well paid jobs. The average salary in the petroleum and minerals sector is $105,000twice the New Zealand average of $50,000;
  • are among the longest lived industries in the country. They invest in local infrastructure, support local suppliers, offer training opportunities, and many invest in community initiatives;
  • are innovative and technology focussed; and

help to diversify regional economies – especially areas that rely heavily on agriculture, dairy, forestry or fishing – making them less vulnerable to external economic factors. End quote.

Further, they provide a large economic benefit to the country: Quote.

There is considerable revenue to the Government through personal and company taxation and GST from petroleum and mining activity.

The royalty regime comprises a mixture of:

  • set rates for every unit (i.e. tonne) produced – typically used for lower value minerals such as aggregates and limestone; and
  • a royalty paid on the percentage of sales or company profit, whichever is higher – typically used for higher value resources such as petroleum, gold, silver and coal (for example, petroleum operators normally have to pay either five per cent of sales or 20 per cent of profits – whichever is higher).

All opencast coal miners, and some gas producers, are also subject to an Energy Resources Levy based on a specified price per unit of production.

This money goes into the National Consolidation Fund, which benefits all New Zealanders through investment in broader infrastructure resources, such as hospitals, roads, schools and broadband.

For example, petroleum operators typically provide 42% of any profits to the Government through royalties and taxes. End quote.

But all that seems to be moot. I’d love to see how collapsing this industry without replacing the huge revenues is going to help anyone long term.

This shows the lunacy of the gas decision. Killing the strongest and best performing sector with the highest wages and replacing it with McJobs in tourism or hospitality seems rather myopic.

 

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13 minutes ago, rdytdy said:

The lunacy of the oil and gas decision

By CS

 
 

pohokura-034.jpg

I’m not sure that anyone in the current government has bothered to read the reports their ministries provide on the oil and gas sector.

If they did read the reports they’d find out that:

  • Petroleum & Minerals is the highest growth in GDP over past 10 years; which makes it the highest contribution to productivity – GDP $330/hour worked.
  • The next biggest sector is Utilities at $210/per hour worked. Utilities also use the output from the oil and gas sector.
  • Petroleum & mInerals is also the sector with the fastest goods export growth

 

Screen-Shot-2018-04-15-at-9.29.13-PM.png

According to another MBIE site: Quote.

The petroleum and minerals industries:

  • create highly skilled and well paid jobs. The average salary in the petroleum and minerals sector is $105,000twice the New Zealand average of $50,000;
  • are among the longest lived industries in the country. They invest in local infrastructure, support local suppliers, offer training opportunities, and many invest in community initiatives;
  • are innovative and technology focussed; and

help to diversify regional economies – especially areas that rely heavily on agriculture, dairy, forestry or fishing – making them less vulnerable to external economic factors. End quote.

Further, they provide a large economic benefit to the country: Quote.

There is considerable revenue to the Government through personal and company taxation and GST from petroleum and mining activity.

The royalty regime comprises a mixture of:

  • set rates for every unit (i.e. tonne) produced – typically used for lower value minerals such as aggregates and limestone; and
  • a royalty paid on the percentage of sales or company profit, whichever is higher – typically used for higher value resources such as petroleum, gold, silver and coal (for example, petroleum operators normally have to pay either five per cent of sales or 20 per cent of profits – whichever is higher).

All opencast coal miners, and some gas producers, are also subject to an Energy Resources Levy based on a specified price per unit of production.

This money goes into the National Consolidation Fund, which benefits all New Zealanders through investment in broader infrastructure resources, such as hospitals, roads, schools and broadband.

For example, petroleum operators typically provide 42% of any profits to the Government through royalties and taxes. End quote.

But all that seems to be moot. I’d love to see how collapsing this industry without replacing the huge revenues is going to help anyone long term.

This shows the lunacy of the gas decision. Killing the strongest and best performing sector with the highest wages and replacing it with McJobs in tourism or hospitality seems rather myopic.

 

The Greens and their Greenpeace mates have done a snow job on Ardern here....Winston not very happy apparently.....:rolleyes:

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