.... 226 Report post Posted June 3, 2017 3 hours ago, Nasrullah said: Nathaniel filly won the Group One Epsom Oaks yesterday Interestingly bred on a 3 x 2 Sadlers Wells cross (Sireline by Sireline) Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Breeder 599 Report post Posted June 13, 2017 Looks like Jeff Lynds has a good Cape Blanco filly ( Dark Princess) . Two good trial wins. She is a half sister to Exquisite Jewel . I remember Cambridge Stud has the dam , Game Duchess, in a broodmare sale but when Exquisite Jewel won she was promptly taken out of the sale. A good move ! Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
.... 226 Report post Posted June 14, 2017 On 13/06/2017 at 5:12 PM, Breeder said: Looks like Jeff Lynds has a good Cape Blanco filly ( Dark Princess) . Two good trial wins. She is a half sister to Exquisite Jewel . I remember Cambridge Stud has the dam , Game Duchess, in a broodmare sale but when Exquisite Jewel won she was promptly taken out of the sale. A good move ! This filly bred on a 3 x 3 Sadler's Wells Cross (Sireline by Sireline) Will be interesting to follow if this cross is more successful than the Danehill sireline over Danehill mare cross. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Breeder 599 Report post Posted July 20, 2017 Dark Princess delivers first up today at Hastings beating another promising first starter Secret Squirrel (by Showcasing). Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
.... 226 Report post Posted July 20, 2017 10 hours ago, Breeder said: Dark Princess delivers first up today at Hastings beating another promising first starter Secret Squirrel (by Showcasing). Well spotted early on from the trials, never looked like losing. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
optical 41 Report post Posted July 23, 2017 On 20/07/2017 at 4:34 PM, Breeder said: Dark Princess delivers first up today at Hastings beating another promising first starter Secret Squirrel (by Showcasing). That lovely Eight Carat family to the fore again! He would want to come up with something decent considering the top echelon of mares that went to him... La Zip 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Insider 3,874 Report post Posted July 24, 2017 Let's hope that Dark Princess is the one. I know of the owner and he's a very rare breed these days in that he purchased and paid for the horse by himself and is racing it by himself. It take balls I say to do that in this day and age (unless you are a millionaire) so well done to the man. ADM, Huey, optical and 3 others 6 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
psyc 23 Report post Posted July 27, 2017 The thing about Cape Blanco or any Stallion that stands at Cambridge is, If they got the opportunity to the same mayors that Hogan used for Tavistock they would be every bit as successful if not bettor! His motivation is to look after and promote his own stallion first. Anybody else's he just clips the ticket. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
optical 41 Report post Posted July 27, 2017 1 hour ago, psyc said: The thing about Cape Blanco or any Stallion that stands at Cambridge is, If they got the opportunity to the same mayors that Hogan used for Tavistock they would be every bit as successful if not bettor! His motivation is to look after and promote his own stallion first. Anybody else's he just clips the ticket. 32 in K1 his first year. 16 from CS Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huey 2,037 Report post Posted July 28, 2017 On 7/27/2017 at 6:49 PM, psyc said: The thing about Cape Blanco or any Stallion that stands at Cambridge is, If they got the opportunity to the same mayors that Hogan used for Tavistock they would be every bit as successful if not bettor! His motivation is to look after and promote his own stallion first. Anybody else's he just clips the ticket. Really? I don't think the quality of mares Tavistock got initially in his first few years at stud was anything to get carried away with. Now I'm sure they are an above average lot however. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
La Zip 468 Report post Posted July 28, 2017 Yes, I understand some people were able to pick up a service to Tavistock for a few thousand dollars. Weanlings sold for nothing and mares in foal bought peanuts, so not sure there was a lot of faith in him. But he needed to really put the effort into CB as it probably cost a small fortune to get the horse out to NZ plus the fee to stand him. In the meantime, it will be interesting to see if the upgraded band of mares Tavistock has served over the last few years, will produce a better calibre of horse? With the huge increase in service fees, I imagine this will also bring a different kind of mare owner - those wanting a quick sale through the yearling ring as opposed to breeding/racing a derby winner! Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huey 2,037 Report post Posted July 29, 2017 These are some of the mares Cape Blanco served , you'd be hard pressed to say they aren't either decent race mares or from good families , I think he got a decent go at stud here. You'll simply have to wait for the results from him. Ekstreme Keep Smiling Tuesday's Child Cool Diamond Pride Indomitable Glamourous Girl Baby Guiness La Zip 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huey 2,037 Report post Posted July 29, 2017 How about this for a horse - ENABLE, dual Oaks winner and now a King George winner as a 3yo filly. First 4 across the line all from Galileo line. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Insider 3,874 Report post Posted July 30, 2017 Only one is by a son of though! Sadly there isn't a large number of sons all lining up to be the heir apparent. Even my hero Frankel seems to be coming up a little bit short. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huey 2,037 Report post Posted July 30, 2017 9 hours ago, Insider said: Only one is by a son of though! Sadly there isn't a large number of sons all lining up to be the heir apparent. Even my hero Frankel seems to be coming up a little bit short. Something has to appear when he disappears though. There certainly doesn't appear to be a heir apparent yet. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
.... 226 Report post Posted July 30, 2017 On 29/07/2017 at 7:54 AM, La Zip said: Yes, I understand some people were able to pick up a service to Tavistock for a few thousand dollars. Weanlings sold for nothing and mares in foal bought peanuts, so not sure there was a lot of faith in him. But he needed to really put the effort into CB as it probably cost a small fortune to get the horse out to NZ plus the fee to stand him. In the meantime, it will be interesting to see if the upgraded band of mares Tavistock has served over the last few years, will produce a better calibre of horse? With the huge increase in service fees, I imagine this will also bring a different kind of mare owner - those wanting a quick sale through the yearling ring as opposed to breeding/racing a derby winner! Looking at the book that Tavistock served last year at the higher fee , the profile of the majority of mares are of Miler/Staying blood. So I think the types of mares has stayed relatively the same but the quality has increased massively A huge amount of Zabeel mares and other good racemares that were 1600m type (and further) Group Quality mares and a lot of good producing mares, a lot different profile from which his about to turn 3yos were conceived off!, shareholders were allowed to send as many mares as they wanted for no charge and services were going very cheaply. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
.... 226 Report post Posted July 30, 2017 On 27/07/2017 at 6:49 PM, psyc said: The thing about Cape Blanco or any Stallion that stands at Cambridge is, If they got the opportunity to the same mayors that Hogan used for Tavistock they would be every bit as successful if not bettor! His motivation is to look after and promote his own stallion first. Anybody else's he just clips the ticket. Totally disagree here, Cape Blanco has been given every chance, not all stallions can be successful and he certainly hasn't been so far. In his 3 seasons in NZ he served 310 mares and of very good quality also, top race mares as well as breeders, both from Hogan's broodmare band and outside breeders. Not all stallions are successful, and in this case it hasn't been through lack of opportunities in NZ optical 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nasrullah 180 Report post Posted August 24, 2017 On 21/05/2017 at 9:17 PM, Berri said: Apart from Teofilo, Galileo is a disappointment as a sire of sires. When you consider that he had 26 group one winning colts go to stud....most are producing good jumpers that need the sting out of the track. Jury is still out on Frankel. 69 group winning mares (28 of them group one) and 60 odd group horses or dams of group horses, He needed to produce multiple serious good horses simply based on the mares that he had. Every time they go into a group one race they get beat apart from the filly in Japan and she recently got beat. A very very good one in France though won a maiden and is a champion. Funny that Frankel and Nathaniel met on their first starts and Frankel won by a neck Jury no longer out on Frankel. He is going well. First crop at 15.5% stakes winners to runners. Analysis by Crop Crop Foals Rnrs Wnrs Wins SW (GW) SWs(GWs) 2014 114 83 45 83 13 (12) 19 (16) Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dopey 209 Report post Posted August 24, 2017 On 7/31/2017 at 10:09 AM, BruceL said: Totally disagree here, Cape Blanco has been given every chance, not all stallions can be successful and he certainly hasn't been so far. In his 3 seasons in NZ he served 310 mares and of very good quality also, top race mares as well as breeders, both from Hogan's broodmare band and outside breeders. Not all stallions are successful, and in this case it hasn't been through lack of opportunities in NZ CB's broodmare sire is Pure rust - noting CB himself was great racehorse Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
.... 226 Report post Posted August 24, 2017 12 hours ago, Dopey said: CB's broodmare sire is Pure rust - noting CB himself was great racehorse Absolutely he was a very good horse, yeah damsire was a massive flop as a stallion Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huey 2,037 Report post Posted August 24, 2017 17 hours ago, Nasrullah said: Jury no longer out on Frankel. He is going well. First crop at 15.5% stakes winners to runners. Analysis by Crop Crop Foals Rnrs Wnrs Wins SW (GW) SWs(GWs) 2014 114 83 45 83 13 (12) 19 (16) Given every opportunity and more. But like all good stallions he'll need a big horse to stand up for him at some point in the not too distant future. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berri 2,131 Report post Posted August 25, 2017 Frankel's results aren't as good as you think. The stallion is meant to upgrade mares at best, maintain them at worst. Sorry about the columns not marrying up but you get the gist. Frankel got the best mares that walked the Earth. If they weren't group horses, they were dams of group horses. Horse Name Rating Dam Rating Dam's Best Progeny Rating Cracksman 118 97 118 Eminant 117 104 117 Dream Castle 114 111 114 Soul Searching 112 122 112 Queen kindly 112 121 112 Fair eva 110 116 110 Frankus 107 50 110 Seven Heavens 107 115 115 Mi Suerte 106 106 106 Cunco 105 110 105 Lady Frankel 105 104 121 Toulifaut 104 117 116 Finche 102 54 126 Mirage Dancer 113 117 113 Last Kingdom 100 80 100 Monarchs Glen 100 112 100 Count Octave 100 87 122 Atty Persse 95 0 0 Majoris 95 0 0 Mori 94 124 117 San Remo 94 86 121 Straight Shooter 94 0 119 Lightening Fast 92 111 92 Icespire 91 0 117 Middle East 90 107 90 Senator 90 115 105 Weekender 88 0 88 Aljezeera 86 115 86 The Grand Visir 86 0 93 Swiss Storm 86 109 116 Zefferino 85 34 85 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berri 2,131 Report post Posted August 25, 2017 On 27/07/2017 at 6:49 PM, psyc said: The thing about Cape Blanco or any Stallion that stands at Cambridge is, If they got the opportunity to the same mayors that Hogan used for Tavistock they would be every bit as successful if not bettor! His motivation is to look after and promote his own stallion first. Anybody else's he just clips the ticket. Absolute utter rubbish. You are talking through the wrong hole. Cape Blanco given every chance. The problem is that Galileo is not really a sire of sires as 31 group one winning colts have gone to stud with Teofilo being the best. Tavistock started with average mares and proved he could produce champions. .... 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
.... 226 Report post Posted August 25, 2017 17 hours ago, Berri said: Absolute utter rubbish. You are talking through the wrong hole. Cape Blanco given every chance. The problem is that Galileo is not really a sire of sires as 31 group one winning colts have gone to stud with Teofilo being the best. Tavistock started with average mares and proved he could produce champions. Agree, there is a lack for knowledge and complete ignorance in Psyc's post. Tavistock has done it the tough way and over the last couple of years the quality of mares he is serving has increased dramatically!, with this seasons book to also be outstanding. May have a quieter couple of years of racing stock now but once the quality books start getting to racing age it will be very interesting. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nasrullah 180 Report post Posted September 14, 2017 Two more Group winners for Frankel (he had seven runners this week, and three thirds as well) have catapulted the all-time great racehorse to world #4 stallion - up three places this week. This is unprecedented and - in rankings terms - exciting. To the maths behind the rankings, Frankel is just a collection of 74 Group race results. It does not know that this scant sample has been achieved by one of the best racehorses in history and that he is being patronised by some of the best mares around, increasing his probability of long-term success. But the maths can still identify Frankel is something special because – at this stage of his career – there hasn’t been a stallion like him. A sample of 74 runners is a small one, and TRC Global Rankings is mindful of the risk in these things. It seeks not to make a splash in, hurriedly jumping on one bandwagon or another, but to minimise errors in predicting the results of future Group and Graded races. This is extremely important to note: if Frankel was placed any lower than #4, on the basis it is ‘too soon to tell’, reached either mathematically or otherwise, the probability of ranking one of his sons or daughters too low in a future Group race increases. While it seems like 74 runners is not a lot, in terms of mitigating risk it is a lot more significant than 54 or 44 runners: we have reached the point where the maths is screaming "this is not a fluke". To remind you what we have detailed before, Frankel's record of 19 Group winners from 74 global runners is represented by a strike rate of 25.7 percent. For comparison, Galileo's strike-rate is 17.1 percent and Dubawi's 17.6 percent. Now, strike rate is nowhere near the most important consideration for TRC Global Rankings. The first and most important statistic for a stallion is simply the number of runners he has been represented by in Group and Graded races, for we are dealing here with the cream of the crop of all Thoroughbreds worldwide, and to even get a runner into a Group or Graded race is somewhat predictive of future success. But let’s talk strike rate just for a second here, for it is a widely understood metric that isn’t that misleading applied in this spot. As the sample size of a stallion grows, his strike rate becomes less noisy and approaches a stable number. One of the things TRC Global Rankings is doing is answering the question: “How is a stallion doing in terms of his win rate at this stage of his career? And how much trust do we place in him continuing to do it?” Frankel's strike rate is only the 49th best among the 500 we consider the best in the world right now. The best belongs to Twice Over: 1-1 or 100%. Of the 48 sires with a higher strike-rate than Frankel: A total of 34 have had ten runners or fewer A total of nine have had 11-20 runners The remaining few have had 23, 29, 29, 35 and 54. (The 54, impressively, is Japanese sire Screen Hero.) None has had close to 74. To see how difficult it is for a sire to maintain a high strike rate as the sample size increases, consider the following leaders bracketed by runners: One sire has had 800+ runners: #3 Deep Impact, SR 10.9% One has had 700-799 runners: #1 Galileo, SR 17.1% One has had 600-699 runners: #18 Fastnet Rock, SR 9.2% One has had 500-599 runners: #2 Dubawi, SR 17.6% Five have had 400-400 runners: #8 Tapit (SR 15.7%), #26 King Kamahameha (SR 9.6%), #61 Exceed And Excel (8.9%), #75 High Chaparral (9.7%), #10 Medaglia d'Oro (14.5%) Nine have had 300-399 runners: #22 Shamardal (10.6%), #16 Snitzel (10.6%), #40 Redoute'sChoice(10.4%), #19 Street Cry (13.7%), #9 Teofilo (10.1%), #14 War Front (10.6%), #59 Bernardini (10.0%) (Note here that strike-rate is tougher to achieve in big fields than small, and tougher to achieve against better runners than weaker groups. We allow for both in the TRC Rankings points that determine the ordering of the classifications.) Separated out into groups like this, you can hopefully see a bit better how the rankings work. Now, consider the following stallions who have had between 140 to 160 runners: #84 Smart Strike (160 runners) SR 8.8% #41 Duke Of Marmalade (157 runners) SR 15.3% #31 City Zip (156 runners) SR 19.9% #35 Acclamation (155 runners) SR 9.0% #56 Malibu Moon (154 runners) SR 11.0% #142 Lemon Drop Kid (152 runners) SR 14.5% #53 Written Tycoon (150 runners) SR 12.7% #24 I Am Invincible (143 runners) SR 12.6% #305 Exchange Rate (143 runners) 12.6% #109 Distorted Humor (140 runners) 10.7% This is a good bunch of stallions, right? Their median ranking is 54.5. Now, when Frankel doubles his number of runners, he will have 148 - right in this group. At his present strike-rate of 25.7 percent, it is 3,522,311,669 – 1 that Frankel doesn’t have a winner in his next 74 runners, which is more than 700,000 times less likely than Leicester were rated to win the Premier League title in 2016. Yet, if this were to happen, Frankel’s strike-rate would be 12.8 percent, which would be still better than eight of the ten stallions above! There is no need to go on, but we cannot resist a geeky exercise. What if we took 74 runners at random from the 1,651 that Frankel’s sire Galileo has had since 2011, and counted the number of Group winners in the sample? What percentage of a million repetitions of this exercise would have 19 winners or more, like Frankel? The result of the frequency simulation is shown in Table 1 (below). The red columns are those in which Galileo had 19 or more winners in a sample of 74 runners. Galileo had 19 winners 650 times - or 1.3 percent of all simulations; Galileo had more than 19 winners 634 times or 1.27 percent of all simulations; So, Galileo had at least the same number of winners as Frankel only 2.57 percent of the time. Of course, this could have been worked out algebraically from the binomial theorem. The probability that a stallion with Galileo’s strike-rate of 16.4 percent (since 2011) would have at least 19 winners from 74 runners is 2.694 percent, which is the equivalent of 1,374 of the samples (we got 1,284, so Galileo was a bit ‘unlucky’ in our simulation.) Now, the fact that only 2.694 percent of all Galileo’s 74 race samples has the same number of winners as Frankel’s actual totals does NOT suggest that Frankel is 97 percent likely to be better than Galileo. The comparison is unfair on the Coolmore great because we haven’t accounted for either the risk that Frankel’s results are flattering to him or the fact that Galileo has achieved his results in better quality races on average. That bloodstock history contains examples of stallions who have got off to a great start. For instance, in the rankings of July 17, 2016, Uncle Mo had scored with 13 (Frankel 19) of his first 74 Graded winners, which entitled him to being ranked #19 (Frankel #4), before later reaching as high as #5 at the peak of his success on April 9, 2017, but he has faded to world #22 in this week’s rankings. Frankel is in a different league to Uncle Mo at the same stage: the Juddmonte great has faced stiffer competition (tRPR 87.11 to 85.43) and bigger fields (10.28 to 9.82) yet has a strike-rate nearly one and half times better. The numbers are unequivocal about this. The ‘too soon to tell’ brigade are backing the wrong horse. You cannot fluke numbers like Frankel without being worthy of the hype. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...