RaceCafe..#1...Tipsters Thread.... Share Your Fancies For Fun...Lets See Who The Best Tipsters Here Are.
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Cape Blanco

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Looks like Jeff Lynds has a good Cape Blanco filly ( Dark Princess) . Two good trial wins. She is a half sister to Exquisite Jewel . I remember Cambridge Stud has the dam , Game Duchess, in a broodmare sale but when Exquisite Jewel won she was promptly taken out of the sale. A good move !

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On ‎13‎/‎06‎/‎2017 at 5:12 PM, Breeder said:

Looks like Jeff Lynds has a good Cape Blanco filly ( Dark Princess) . Two good trial wins. She is a half sister to Exquisite Jewel . I remember Cambridge Stud has the dam , Game Duchess, in a broodmare sale but when Exquisite Jewel won she was promptly taken out of the sale. A good move !

This filly bred on a 3 x 3 Sadler's Wells Cross (Sireline by Sireline)

Will be interesting to follow if this cross is more successful than the Danehill sireline over Danehill mare cross.

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10 hours ago, Breeder said:

Dark Princess delivers first up today at Hastings beating another promising first starter Secret Squirrel (by Showcasing).

Well spotted early on from the trials, never looked like losing.

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On 20/07/2017 at 4:34 PM, Breeder said:

Dark Princess delivers first up today at Hastings beating another promising first starter Secret Squirrel (by Showcasing).

That lovely Eight Carat family to the fore again! He would want to come up with something decent considering the top echelon of mares that went to him...  

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Let's hope that Dark Princess is the one. I know of the owner and he's a very rare breed these days in that he purchased and paid for the horse by himself and is racing it by himself. It take balls I say to do that in this day and age (unless you are a millionaire) so well done to the man. 

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The thing about Cape Blanco or any Stallion that stands at Cambridge is, If they got the opportunity to the same mayors that Hogan used for Tavistock they would be every bit as successful if not bettor! His motivation is to look after and promote his own stallion first. Anybody else's he just clips the ticket.

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1 hour ago, psyc said:

The thing about Cape Blanco or any Stallion that stands at Cambridge is, If they got the opportunity to the same mayors that Hogan used for Tavistock they would be every bit as successful if not bettor! His motivation is to look after and promote his own stallion first. Anybody else's he just clips the ticket.

32 in K1 his first year. 16 from CS 

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On 7/27/2017 at 6:49 PM, psyc said:

The thing about Cape Blanco or any Stallion that stands at Cambridge is, If they got the opportunity to the same mayors that Hogan used for Tavistock they would be every bit as successful if not bettor! His motivation is to look after and promote his own stallion first. Anybody else's he just clips the ticket.

Really? I don't think the quality of mares Tavistock got initially in his first few years at stud was anything to get carried away with. 

Now I'm sure they are an above average lot however.

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Yes, I understand some people were able to pick up a service to Tavistock for a few thousand dollars. Weanlings sold for nothing and mares in foal bought peanuts, so not sure there was a lot of faith in him.  But he needed to really put the effort into CB as it probably cost a small fortune to get the horse out to NZ plus the fee to stand him.

In the meantime,  it will be interesting to see if the upgraded band of mares Tavistock has served over the last few years, will produce a better calibre of horse? With the huge increase in service fees, I imagine this will also bring a different kind of mare owner - those wanting a quick sale through the yearling ring as opposed to breeding/racing a derby winner! 

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These are some of the mares Cape Blanco served , you'd be hard pressed to say they aren't either decent race mares or from good families , I think he got a decent go at stud here. You'll simply have to wait for the results from him.

Ekstreme

Keep Smiling

Tuesday's Child

Cool Diamond

Pride 

Indomitable

Glamourous Girl

Baby Guiness

 

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Only one is by a son of though!

Sadly there isn't a large number of sons all lining up to be the heir apparent. 

Even my hero Frankel seems to be coming up a little bit short. 

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9 hours ago, Insider said:

Only one is by a son of though!

Sadly there isn't a large number of sons all lining up to be the heir apparent. 

Even my hero Frankel seems to be coming up a little bit short. 

Something has to appear when he disappears though. There certainly doesn't appear to be a heir apparent yet. 

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On ‎29‎/‎07‎/‎2017 at 7:54 AM, La Zip said:

Yes, I understand some people were able to pick up a service to Tavistock for a few thousand dollars. Weanlings sold for nothing and mares in foal bought peanuts, so not sure there was a lot of faith in him.  But he needed to really put the effort into CB as it probably cost a small fortune to get the horse out to NZ plus the fee to stand him.

In the meantime,  it will be interesting to see if the upgraded band of mares Tavistock has served over the last few years, will produce a better calibre of horse? With the huge increase in service fees, I imagine this will also bring a different kind of mare owner - those wanting a quick sale through the yearling ring as opposed to breeding/racing a derby winner! 

Looking at the book that Tavistock served last year at the higher fee , the profile of the majority of mares are of Miler/Staying blood. So I think the types of mares has stayed relatively the same but the quality has increased massively

A huge amount of Zabeel mares and other good racemares that were 1600m type (and further) Group Quality mares and a lot of good producing mares, a lot different profile from which his about to turn 3yos were conceived off!, shareholders were allowed to send as many mares as they wanted for no charge  and services were going very cheaply.

 

 

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On ‎27‎/‎07‎/‎2017 at 6:49 PM, psyc said:

The thing about Cape Blanco or any Stallion that stands at Cambridge is, If they got the opportunity to the same mayors that Hogan used for Tavistock they would be every bit as successful if not bettor! His motivation is to look after and promote his own stallion first. Anybody else's he just clips the ticket.

Totally disagree here, Cape Blanco has been given every chance, not all stallions can be successful and he certainly hasn't been so far.

In his 3 seasons in NZ he served 310 mares and of very good quality also, top race mares as well as breeders, both from Hogan's broodmare band and outside breeders.

Not all stallions are successful, and in this case it hasn't been through lack of opportunities in NZ

 

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On ‎21‎/‎05‎/‎2017 at 9:17 PM, Berri said:

Apart from Teofilo, Galileo is a disappointment as a sire of sires. When you consider that he had 26 group one winning colts go to stud....most are producing good jumpers that need the sting out of the track.

Jury is still out on Frankel. 69 group winning mares (28 of them group one) and 60 odd group horses or dams of group horses, He needed to produce multiple serious good horses simply based on the mares that he had. Every time they go into a group one race they get beat apart from the filly in Japan and she recently got beat. A very very good one in France though won a maiden and is a champion.

Funny that Frankel and Nathaniel met on their first starts and Frankel won by a neck

Jury no longer out on Frankel. He is going well. First crop at 15.5% stakes winners to runners.

Analysis by Crop

Crop Foals Rnrs Wnrs Wins SW (GW) SWs(GWs)  
2014 114 83 45 83 13 (12) 19 (16)  

 

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On 7/31/2017 at 10:09 AM, BruceL said:

Totally disagree here, Cape Blanco has been given every chance, not all stallions can be successful and he certainly hasn't been so far.

In his 3 seasons in NZ he served 310 mares and of very good quality also, top race mares as well as breeders, both from Hogan's broodmare band and outside breeders.

Not all stallions are successful, and in this case it hasn't been through lack of opportunities in NZ

 

CB's broodmare sire is Pure rust  - noting CB himself was great racehorse 

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12 hours ago, Dopey said:

CB's broodmare sire is Pure rust  - noting CB himself was great racehorse 

Absolutely he was a very good horse, yeah damsire was a massive flop as a stallion 

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17 hours ago, Nasrullah said:

Jury no longer out on Frankel. He is going well. First crop at 15.5% stakes winners to runners.

Analysis by Crop

Crop Foals Rnrs Wnrs Wins SW (GW) SWs(GWs)  
2014 114 83 45 83 13 (12) 19 (16)  

 

Given every opportunity and more.

But like all good stallions he'll need a big horse to stand up for him at some point in the not too distant future.

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Frankel's results aren't as good as you think. The stallion is meant to upgrade mares at best, maintain them at worst. Sorry about the columns not marrying up but you get the gist. Frankel got the best mares that walked the Earth. If they weren't group horses, they were dams of group horses.

 

Horse Name Rating   Dam Rating Dam's Best Progeny Rating
               
Cracksman 118   97   118  
Eminant   117   104   117  
Dream Castle 114   111   114  
Soul Searching 112   122   112  
Queen kindly 112   121   112  
Fair eva   110   116   110  
Frankus   107   50   110  
Seven Heavens           107   115   115  
Mi Suerte   106   106   106  
Cunco   105   110   105  
Lady Frankel 105   104   121  
Toulifaut   104   117   116  
Finche   102   54   126  
Mirage Dancer 113   117   113  
Last Kingdom 100   80   100  
Monarchs Glen   100   112   100  
Count Octave   100   87   122  
Atty Persse   95   0   0  
Majoris   95   0   0  
Mori   94   124   117  
San Remo   94   86   121  
Straight Shooter   94   0   119  
Lightening Fast    92   111   92  
Icespire   91   0   117  
Middle East   90   107   90  
Senator   90   115   105  
Weekender    88   0   88  
Aljezeera   86   115   86  
The Grand Visir   86   0   93  
Swiss Storm   86   109   116  
Zefferino   85   34   85  

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On ‎27‎/‎07‎/‎2017 at 6:49 PM, psyc said:

The thing about Cape Blanco or any Stallion that stands at Cambridge is, If they got the opportunity to the same mayors that Hogan used for Tavistock they would be every bit as successful if not bettor! His motivation is to look after and promote his own stallion first. Anybody else's he just clips the ticket.

Absolute utter rubbish. You are talking through the wrong hole. Cape Blanco given every chance. The problem is that Galileo is not really a sire of sires as 31 group one winning colts have gone to stud with Teofilo being the best.

Tavistock started with average mares and proved he could produce champions.

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17 hours ago, Berri said:

 

Absolute utter rubbish. You are talking through the wrong hole. Cape Blanco given every chance. The problem is that Galileo is not really a sire of sires as 31 group one winning colts have gone to stud with Teofilo being the best.

Tavistock started with average mares and proved he could produce champions.

Agree, there is a lack for knowledge and complete ignorance in Psyc's post.

Tavistock has done it the tough way and over the last couple of years the quality of mares he is serving has increased dramatically!, with this seasons book to also be outstanding.

May have a quieter couple of years of racing stock now but once the quality books start getting to racing age it will be very interesting. 

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Two more Group winners for Frankel (he had seven runners this week, and three thirds as well) have catapulted the all-time great racehorse to world #4 stallion - up three places this week. This is unprecedented and - in rankings terms - exciting.

To the maths behind the rankings, Frankel is just a collection of 74 Group race results. It does not know that this scant sample has been achieved by one of the best racehorses in history and that he is being patronised by some of the best mares around, increasing his probability of long-term success.

But the maths can still identify Frankel is something special because – at this stage of his career – there hasn’t been a stallion like him.

A sample of 74 runners is a small one, and TRC Global Rankings is mindful of the risk in these things. It seeks not to make a splash in, hurriedly jumping on one bandwagon or another, but to minimise errors in predicting the results of future Group and Graded races.

This is extremely important to note: if Frankel was placed any lower than #4, on the basis it is ‘too soon to tell’, reached either mathematically or otherwise, the probability of ranking one of his sons or daughters too low in a future Group race increases.

While it seems like 74 runners is not a lot, in terms of mitigating risk it is a lot more significant than 54 or 44 runners: we have reached the point where the maths is screaming "this is not a fluke".

To remind you what we have detailed before, Frankel's record of 19 Group winners from 74 global runners is represented by a strike rate of 25.7 percent. For comparison, Galileo's strike-rate is 17.1 percent and Dubawi's 17.6 percent.

Now, strike rate is nowhere near the most important consideration for TRC Global Rankings. The first and most important statistic for a stallion is simply the number of runners he has been represented by in Group and Graded races, for we are dealing here with the cream of the crop of all Thoroughbreds worldwide, and to even get a runner into a Group or Graded race is somewhat predictive of future success.

But let’s talk strike rate just for a second here, for it is a widely understood metric that isn’t that misleading applied in this spot.

As the sample size of a stallion grows, his strike rate becomes less noisy and approaches a stable number. One of the things TRC Global Rankings is doing is answering the question: “How is a stallion doing in terms of his win rate at this stage of his career? And how much trust do we place in him continuing to do it?”

Frankel's strike rate is only the 49th best among the 500 we consider the best in the world right now. The best belongs to Twice Over: 1-1 or 100%.

Of the 48 sires with a higher strike-rate than Frankel:

  • A total of 34 have had ten runners or fewer
  • A total of nine have had 11-20 runners
  • The remaining few have had 23, 29, 29, 35 and 54. (The 54, impressively, is Japanese sire Screen Hero.)
  • None has had close to 74.

To see how difficult it is for a sire to maintain a high strike rate as the sample size increases, consider the following leaders bracketed by runners:

One sire has had 800+ runners: #3 Deep Impact, SR 10.9%

One has had 700-799 runners: #1 Galileo, SR 17.1%

One has had 600-699 runners: #18 Fastnet Rock, SR 9.2%

One has had 500-599 runners: #2 Dubawi, SR 17.6%

Five have had 400-400 runners: #8 Tapit (SR 15.7%), #26 King Kamahameha (SR 9.6%), #61 Exceed And Excel (8.9%), #75 High Chaparral (9.7%), #10 Medaglia d'Oro (14.5%)

Nine have had 300-399 runners: #22 Shamardal (10.6%), #16 Snitzel (10.6%), #40 Redoute'sChoice(10.4%), #19 Street Cry (13.7%), #9 Teofilo (10.1%), #14 War Front (10.6%), #59 Bernardini (10.0%)

(Note here that strike-rate is tougher to achieve in big fields than small, and tougher to achieve against better runners than weaker groups. We allow for both in the TRC Rankings points that determine the ordering of the classifications.)

Separated out into groups like this, you can hopefully see a bit better how the rankings work.

Now, consider the following stallions who have had between 140 to 160 runners:

#84 Smart Strike (160 runners) SR 8.8%

#41 Duke Of Marmalade (157 runners) SR 15.3%

#31 City Zip (156 runners) SR 19.9%

#35 Acclamation (155 runners) SR 9.0%

#56 Malibu Moon (154 runners) SR 11.0%

#142 Lemon Drop Kid (152 runners) SR 14.5%

#53 Written Tycoon (150 runners) SR 12.7%

#24 I Am Invincible (143 runners) SR 12.6%

#305 Exchange Rate (143 runners) 12.6%

#109 Distorted Humor (140 runners) 10.7%

This is a good bunch of stallions, right? Their median ranking is 54.5. Now, when Frankel doubles his number of runners, he will have 148 - right in this group.

At his present strike-rate of 25.7 percent, it is 3,522,311,669 – 1 that Frankel doesn’t have a winner in his next 74 runners, which is more than 700,000 times less likely than Leicester were rated to win the Premier League title in 2016.

Yet, if this were to happen, Frankel’s strike-rate would be 12.8 percent, which would be still better than eight of the ten stallions above!

There is no need to go on, but we cannot resist a geeky exercise. What if we took 74 runners at random from the 1,651 that Frankel’s sire Galileo has had since 2011, and counted the number of Group winners in the sample? What percentage of a million repetitions of this exercise would have 19 winners or more, like Frankel?

The result of the frequency simulation is shown in Table 1 (below). The red columns are those in which Galileo had 19 or more winners in a sample of 74 runners.

  • Galileo had 19 winners 650 times - or 1.3 percent of all simulations;
  • Galileo had more than 19 winners 634 times or 1.27 percent of all simulations;
  • So, Galileo had at least the same number of winners as Frankel only 2.57 percent of the time.

Of course, this could have been worked out algebraically from the binomial theorem. The probability that a stallion with Galileo’s strike-rate of 16.4 percent (since 2011) would have at least 19 winners from 74 runners is 2.694 percent, which is the equivalent of 1,374 of the samples (we got 1,284, so Galileo was a bit ‘unlucky’ in our simulation.)

Now, the fact that only 2.694 percent of all Galileo’s 74 race samples has the same number of winners as Frankel’s actual totals does NOT suggest that Frankel is 97 percent likely to be better than Galileo. The comparison is unfair on the Coolmore great because we haven’t accounted for either the risk that Frankel’s results are flattering to him or the fact that Galileo has achieved his results in better quality races on average.

That bloodstock history contains examples of stallions who have got off to a great start. For instance, in the rankings of July 17, 2016, Uncle Mo had scored with 13 (Frankel 19) of his first 74 Graded winners, which entitled him to being ranked #19 (Frankel #4), before later reaching as high as #5 at the peak of his success on April 9, 2017, but he has faded to world #22 in this week’s rankings.

Frankel is in a different league to Uncle Mo at the same stage: the Juddmonte great has faced stiffer competition (tRPR 87.11 to 85.43) and bigger fields (10.28 to 9.82) yet has a strike-rate nearly one and half times better.

The numbers are unequivocal about this. The ‘too soon to tell’ brigade are backing the wrong horse. You cannot fluke numbers like Frankel without being worthy of the hype.

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