Khan

Why are there any trotters left in NZ?

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KD Muscles left NZ as a T1.  It's won $80k in Australia this season so far and is racing in a Group 1 race tonight.

 

Clover Mac was a T3 in NZ who could lead from a standing start, run a 63.1 first half and still miss a place:

http://harness.hrnz.co.nz/gws/ws/r/infohorsews/wsd06x?Arg=hrnzg-Ptype&Arg=RaceVideo&Arg=hrnzg-RacehdrID&Arg=227848

In Australia he can get involved in blistering 27.8 opening quarter speed duels from the death and still win:

http://www.harness.org.au/video-replay.cfm?state=VIC&raceCode=MXM24021708

Clover Mac is currently $6 odds to win the aforementioned Group 1 Trotting Grand Prix at Melton tonight.

 

So why are there any low rated trotters left racing over there?  Send them all to Andy Gath!

 

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Looking at that Group 1 there's an unusual lack of gatespeed in the front row.  Clover Mac or Sunny Ruby seem the only serious candidates.

Sunny Ruby leading would be well worth a bet at the $2.90 currently available in Oz, however Andy Gath horses often pull their heads off so there's a chance (however unlikely it probably seems to NZ harness fans) that Kate Gath on Clover Mac would not hand up to Sunny Ruby.  In that scenario Sunny would probably then get one one cover behind On Thunder Road which is not that bad, so $2.90 would still seem very reasonable then also.

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Clover Mac held the lead early.  Sunny Mac began ok but made no effort to take it from him.  This appeared to pay off when it ultimately got a very nice one one sit but the horse went terribly for some reason and faded into third last.  Clover Mac enjoyed a cushy run to hold on to second but On Thunder Road tends to be a hard horse to run past in the home straight.

The most interesting part of the race for me was yet another demonstration of the effectiveness of TabCorps new lemming odds manipulation technique.  Once a favourite starts to shorten it basically never stops.  Sunny Ruby was $2.90 into $2.15!  Such dramatic market moves used to be almost unheard of but are now routine.  This is game changing stuff for harness punters.

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13 hours ago, Khan said:

Clover Mac held the lead early.  Sunny Mac began ok but made no effort to take it from him.  This appeared to pay off when it ultimately got a very nice one one sit but the horse went terribly for some reason and faded into third last.  Clover Mac enjoyed a cushy run to hold on to second but On Thunder Road tends to be a hard horse to run past in the home straight.

The most interesting part of the race for me was yet another demonstration of the effectiveness of TabCorps new lemming odds manipulation technique.  Once a favourite starts to shorten it basically never stops.  Sunny Ruby was $2.90 into $2.15!  Such dramatic market moves used to be almost unheard of but are now routine.  This is game changing stuff for harness punters.

Your summation of the way the race folded is correct. Sunny Ruby had a great run but was very disappointing. The stipes have queried the run and requested a vet examination Maybe something will show up but very uncharacteristic run from how great she had been preforming in Aus.

However I find your second paragraph has a conspiracy theory theme to it. As I have explained to you before TabCorp are not the tab within the Victorian racing area. It is STab. If you are betting into Tab Corp which you are entitled to do if you have an acc with them then the pool will always be smaller than Stab in Victoria. Fluctuations will always be greater in a smaller pool. In saying that $2.90 was always way over for Sunny Ruby and coming into $2,15 was more her correct price. This can be seen by the final Stab dividends being $2.20 fixed and $2.10 on the tote which is always market forces dictated. So your $2.15 with Tab Corp was still beating the tote. How this was manipulation as you claim I fail to see. Those who took the $2.90 would have been happy and also the $2.15 as it was more than the tote. Unfortunately she didnt win so everybody was unhappy.    

Dont bet with Tab Corp unless you are betting within NSW or be prepared for big fluctuations elsewhere. If you want to give some credibility to your claim find some examples in NSW through breed racing where the pools are huge.

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harewood there are many areas of miscommunication between us and I'm dubious we can resolve them but I'll have another go and try to keep things simple.

I have always been talking about fixed odds only.  Your observations seem mainly about totalisator betting but nothing I have ever written here has been about totalisator betting.

TabCorp are dominant players in fixed odds for racing in Australia..  TabCorp own the SuperTab and the NSW Tab and each of those offers the same fixed odds at all times..

https://www.tabcorp.com.au/who-we-are/our-brands

As fascinating as I find it I won't go into manipulation of punters aspect here as we need to understand this first part to even dream of discussing it.

 

 

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2 hours ago, Khan said:

I have always been talking about fixed odds only.  Your observations seem mainly about totalisator betting but nothing I have ever written here has been about totalisator betting.

I realise you are talking about fixed odds and so am I in the post I wrote. 

Please show me where Tab Corp own Stab as I cannot find this anywhere. 

The TabCorp fixed odds are not the same as Stab because Stab does not give fixed odds. Each area under Stab gives its own fixed odds, ie NZ TAB, WAtouchbet and Vitorian TAB so your comments are incorrect. 

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I don't understand why you keep talking about pools if you're talking about fixed odds.

                      'TabCorp are not the tab within the Victorian racing area. It is STab.'

TabCorp do own the Victorian Tab and this appears to be where much of our confusion has arisen.  TabCorp own the Victorian Tab and the NSW Tab (and recently, the ACT Tab too).  Read the above link I provided. 

The Victorian Tab operate the SuperTab tote pools:

https://www.tabcorp.com.au/news-media/media-releases/victorian-tab-enters-into-new-pooling-arrangements

When I talk about TabCorp, or the 'Australian Tab', I am talking about the one (huge and dominant) entity that offers the exact same fixed odds in NSW and Victoria (and the ACT).  There is zero difference or distinction between states when it comes to all of their fixed odds operations, so it makes no sense to me when you say that betting in NSW will have less fluctuations than elsewhere.

The Victorian Tab has been commonly known as the SuperTab for decades, as it used to be a tote only operation so there was no practical difference.  As I'm only talking about fixed odds I've been using the term SuperTab instead of Victorian Tab, as that's what I've called it all my life.  However SuperTab is only a relevant concept for totalisator pools and that appears to have contributed to this confusion.  If so I apologise and hope that things are clear now.
 

TabCorp used to operate their single fixed odds service in the traditional way (open short odds and keep increasing them until someone takes them), but have now changed that.  I have elaborated on that elsewhere here but there seems little point in talking about what TabCorp are doing with their fixed odds while you remain unclear what TabCorp is.

 

 

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8 hours ago, Khan said:

I have read you links and fully understand them. I am in WA so have been involved with Stab for a number of years. Their fixed odds are independent to other jurisdictions the same as NZTab is even thou it is in Stab also  Do we agree on that.

Honk Kong, Japan and Singapore, three of the biggest betting areas are also with Stab when betting on the tote.

What you are saying is that in fixed odds TabCorp  supplies the same odds for both Victorian and NSW racing even thou you have to have  different accounts.I haven't seen a link that explains the fixed odds are in an identical pool.  As Im not in either  area I cannot confirm this but next time Im over in either state I will check the fixed odds on the local tab and compare with what TabCorp puts up for races out of state. The WA odds differ quite markedly, sometimes up sometimes down to what Tab corp advertise on SkyRacing which it just happens to have a major share in.

There are talks afoot of uniting all Aus under one Tab within the next few years. The sooner the better. Bigger pools and then like  HK  the market will dictate the price better. Maybe we should scrap all fixed odds and be like HK and Japan which are some of the few areas if not the only ones that are thriving..All their profit goes back into racing and not disappearing into cooperates and shareholders pockets.

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