Ellerslie track Cup Day

[Shad 1,558]

On the upside won't have irrigation issues, will suit some and not others, that's they way it goes.

[Turny 1,224]

Are they watering the track?

[Blue 1,099]

So in light of the forecast, what are the odds on the day being canned?

If it's postponed from Saturday, still not looking too rosy for Sunday either.

[Midget 4,489]

3 hours ago, Disillusioned said:

Love that Midget is up there disparaging Max Key.

Take Max and his fashionista ilk away - including Midget's sis, no? - and I would suggest the Auckland Racing Club would struggle to draw a thousand people to what used to be THE race day of the year...

It used to be a raceday I would make sure I was in Auckland for. Not for MANY years though...

 

I think Midget's sister might own more racehorses than the entire board of the NZRB and NZTR combined, but don't you let that get in the way of your silly comments.

As for Max Key, you'd go a long way to see a bigger plonker than him, he's an absolute ''custard'' that one..

 

 

 

[puha 2,177]

13 minutes ago, Blue said:

So in light of the forecast, what are the odds on the day being canned?

If it's postponed from Saturday, still not looking too rosy for Sunday either.

If they postpone  due to bring a wet track I would like a refund on my futures bet as I've backed horses that will lap up the bog.

[chevy86 2,710]

Why would they postpone it and disappoint a massive crowd! Really clever of Castles, Mung Bean Man and others to shift the carnival to March.

[chevy86 2,710]

BTW, I challenge any posters to recall a WORSE Auckland Cup field than this year's lot. Good luck nonetheless to those that are lining up.

[Insider 3,961]

How many were on-course last Saturday when it was a beautiful Day? Not too many I thought. I didnt even see either Midget, version one or version two there so heaven help our cash strapped Industry paying out all that money for mudders running around in a bog this Saturday.

What an absolute waste of our money!

The decision to create two Carnivals in theory was GREAT but in practice FLAWED. I think that it's time to admit it.

P.S. Thank God it was a beautiful track last Saturday for Gingernuts, otherwise everyone on here would have been kicking the shit out of him and saying; "the worst Derby winner ever" "only a wet tracker" etc when in fact he's a bloody good horse and a grand type too notwithstanding is red colour. 

[Disillusioned 389]

I see dear Midget, true to form, can't resist playing the man.

'Silly', heh heh.

I gave your industry away as a lost cause of self-centred individuals, people unable to work together, determined not to live in the 21st Century...

I see nowt has changed.

Well, you reap what you sow - and petty-minded folk like Midget are one of the reasons why Racing here has died.

Enjoy the hundreds your flagship day 'attracts'!

[Midget 4,489]

1 hour ago, Disillusioned said:

I see dear Midget, true to form, can't resist playing the man.

'Silly', heh heh.

I gave your industry away as a lost cause of self-centred individuals, people unable to work together, determined not to live in the 21st Century...

I see nowt has changed.

Well, you reap what you sow - and petty-minded folk like Midget are one of the reasons why Racing here has died.

Enjoy the hundreds your flagship day 'attracts'!

Nowt has changed  

[Ohokaman 5,843]

10 hours ago, Tailedoff said:

I should send the connections of Lord Van Percy a bill for $50 for my thrown away bet - as late as yesterday they claimed to be coming grrr

Isn't he going to the Adelaide Cup ?

[scooby3051 10,936]

The Cup has become a second tier race since the move... Maybe moving the Derby to later was not a bad thought.... but has it really worked??? It seems this carnival has never been successful at all, and most of the time at least one of the days it is wet. Just go back to before, run the Cup on New years day as a handicap, not the stupid set weights and penalties porter of a race it is now. The field is a joke...or is it that our standard of horses has become a joke.

[Trump 2,741]

 NZ Stayer ranks are depleted due to demand for the stock overseas from an early age. Blaming poor Auck Cup fields due to the switch to March is nonsense. How different are the NYD fields? Buggar all diff. I think Scoobs is on to it by suggesting the return to a Hcp race. The most successful stayers race in the world by far, is the Melb Cup - a handicap race. It would not be the same if they went to a SWP or WFA format. 

[Trump 2,741]

3 hours ago, Disillusioned said:

I see dear Midget, true to form, can't resist playing the man.

'Silly', heh heh.

I gave your industry away as a lost cause of self-centred individuals, people unable to work together, determined not to live in the 21st Century...

I see nowt has changed.

Well, you reap what you sow - and petty-minded folk like Midget are one of the reasons why Racing here has died.

Enjoy the hundreds your flagship day 'attracts'!

There are those that "give up" and those that stay and fight. Good to see you've abandoned ship ! The hardy remain for the fight - albeit a losing battle

[barryb 2,064]

6 hours ago, Trump said:

 NZ Stayer ranks are depleted due to demand for the stock overseas from an early age. Blaming poor Auck Cup fields due to the switch to March is nonsense. How different are the NYD fields? Buggar all diff. I think Scoobs is on to it by suggesting the return to a Hcp race. The most successful stayers race in the world by far, is the Melb Cup - a handicap race. It would not be the same if they went to a SWP or WFA format. 

Agree Trump thats one aspect of it, the other is that buying a yearling with a view to winning a staying race well into the future is just not all that realistic in the ownership environment that exists today. When horses were owned by 1 or 2 owners then yes it was far more tolerable to be able to wait 2-3 yrs to get close to winning a race, but today with often multitudes of owners in one horse its a stretch to keep putting money into a horse that doesn't even get warmed up for a few years. Firstly finding owners is tough enough, keeping them interested and in is hard yards & when they do race its for peanuts & a ribbon. Far easier to get people into syndicates when it commences racing at 2 and is a chance up to 1600. If the horse fails to make the grade you can quit out early enough and move on rather than waiting another year or 2 like with a stayer to find out the same thing.

 

[Midget 4,489]

I could go and buy a stayer today, a nice scopey type who'll mature as a late three year old and work his way through the grades into open company, but here's the problem.

The handicapping model used in NZ means you cannot return a profit racing here, so you're looking at purchasing the horse for say 50-60 grand, then four more years working through the grades at a further 30k per annum in fees, so the horse owes you close to 200 grand, then you get handicapped out of NZ racing and because you're a handicapper quality horse you're not good enough for WFA, but if you did run at WFA and met a weak field against the likes of Kawi, you go to a 100+ rating and your career is over.

I give you an example, the last horse I bought was Shoot To Kill, he goes good and is a black type quality animal, however last start the owners decided to run him in an $8000 race, he won, took home $4000 after trainer and jockey fees, that's six weeks training fees, but got 5 ratings points for his trouble.

It's bizarre and you cannot profitably race a gelding in NZ under that model.

[Varro 244]

for mine it is too risky to buy a stayer in New Zealand, the low level of stakes makes this near on impossible, unless you can afford to be patient, and have deep pockets, or very very deep pockets.

additionally for a gelding, as soon as you win a open handicap race, your fucked.  Look at Brave Centaur, went through the grades relatively quickly, won a week open handicap, only won a bit of 150k in stakes, but was weighted like it had won multiple group 1's.  He is a great example of the handicapper ripping him a new arsehole.

its so sad but probably true, if your an owner and your after a chance to see some returns, your better off sending your horse to Australia if you have a half decent one.  even average sunday or midweek races in the city are going for between 30-40k.

[Trump 2,741]

You are all spot on re the handicapping. I get a bit sick of the constant bitching and moaning from some who can the ARC (especially Chris Weaver) for creating an additional carnival in March and moving the Auckland Cup. It was a Board decision. The only mistake they made is initially puting the Cup on mid/week. It wouldn't matter if they ran it on NY day - the field would be the same. The people have so much instant online access these days, they can do other things and watch races at the same time. I watched a race at Ballarat yesterday on my iPhone during a round of golf at the Gold Coast ! Horse I backed ran 4th - but I won the money at golf! The crowds of "the old days" are gone at races. I went to the races last Sat and had a great time. But about 8 meetings a year is my ave these days. 

[TOM(the other Molloy) 1,774]

1 hour ago, Midget said:

I could go and buy a stayer today, a nice scopey type who'll mature as a late three year old and work his way through the grades into open company, but here's the problem.

The handicapping model used in NZ means you cannot return a profit racing here, so you're looking at purchasing the horse for say 50-60 grand, then four more years working through the grades at a further 30k per annum in fees, so the horse owes you close to 200 grand, then you get handicapped out of NZ racing and because you're a handicapper quality horse you're not good enough for WFA, but if you did run at WFA and met a weak field against the likes of Kawi, you go to a 100+ rating and your career is over.

I give you an example, the last horse I bought was Shoot To Kill, he goes good and is a black type quality animal, however last start the owners decided to run him in an $8000 race, he won, took home $4000 after trainer and jockey fees, that's six weeks training fees, but got 5 ratings points for his trouble.

It's bizarre and you cannot profitably race a gelding in NZ under that model.

That was the trainer's decision not the owners.  I personally queried the principal owner why Shoot to Kill was not running for $22,500 at Wingatui eight days later (versus $8000 at Riccarton).  She had no idea.  Obviously there had to be some reason given the trainer had horses at the latter meeting.

Interesting however and emphasising the point the (quite impressive) winner of the Wingatui R75 only got 4 rating points for a $14,060 cheque where StK got 5 for a $5,000.  Not terribly consistent.

[rdytdy 5,343]

8 hours ago, Trump said:

 NZ Stayer ranks are depleted due to demand for the stock overseas from an early age. Blaming poor Auck Cup fields due to the switch to March is nonsense. How different are the NYD fields? Buggar all diff. I think Scoobs is on to it by suggesting the return to a Hcp race. The most successful stayers race in the world by far, is the Melb Cup - a handicap race. It would not be the same if they went to a SWP or WFA format. 

 

Moving the Derby to March was sensible but the shift of the flagship race, the moving the Auckland Cup to March is a disaster no matter how one looks at it. Move it back to New Year's Day and place the City Of Auckland Cup in March.  

 

[Ohokaman 5,843]

1 hour ago, Trump said:

You are all spot on re the handicapping. I get a bit sick of the constant bitching and moaning from some who can the ARC (especially Chris Weaver) for creating an additional carnival in March and moving the Auckland Cup. It was a Board decision. The only mistake they made is initially puting the Cup on mid/week. It wouldn't matter if they ran it on NY day - the field would be the same. The people have so much instant online access these days, they can do other things and watch races at the same time. I watched a race at Ballarat yesterday on my iPhone during a round of golf at the Gold Coast ! Horse I backed ran 4th - but I won the money at golf! The crowds of "the old days" are gone at races. I went to the races last Sat and had a great time. But about 8 meetings a year is my ave these days. 

The idea to create another Carnival wasn't a bad one Trumpy, but moving the Auckland Cup from an established date was. I argued with the ATC about wanting to move the Trotting Cup from New Years Eve but they wanted to try it, really only because of the ARC move. Another wrong decision which has now been corrected.

The Auckland Cup week was an established part of the Racing Calendar and everyone knew when the races were on. Hundreds used to go up from the South Island for that couple of weeks over Christmas and New Year, and they were bloody successful.

The ARC really needed to come up with some decent, new,relevant races for March so it stood on its own and didn't bastardise what was already in place....they didn't really consider all the consequences and it was a bit arrogant really.

[Trump 2,741]

You could be right Ohakason, but at least the motives of the ARC were right and they were trying to do something so that the Derby allowed 3yo to mature better. The Cup midweek was a disaster and should always be on a holiday. But at least they were trying something different !

[Lincoln blue 14]

Dead 5 this avo..

[Insider 3,961]

I see that they have moved Chenille out to $8.50 on the finial field odds. Even at that figure which appears very generous I don't believe that she will be starting if the rains come that the bureau is predicting.

Take Hesi's advice and sit on your money, but be prepared to move quickly, if the rain looks like most of it will miss Ellerslie. 

A great opportunity of a game of 'cat and mouse' with the timid bookies is the way I see it, and the way I am going to play it.

[richie 1,027]

Five to Midnight looks the enigma  to me.Will love the soft track although not sure about the distance.Has gone ok over 2400m but may need another year on it.

Draw might help on wet track and Trainer and Jockey deserving of all the wins they get.