RaceCafe..#1...Tipsters Thread.... Share Your Fancies For Fun...Lets See Who The Best Tipsters Here Are.
Fartoomuch

Derby Day Question

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My question about the Derby, which will be answered tomorrow afternoon is GINGERNUTS.

I have watched the replay of the Avondale Guineas several times.

Was that performance by Gingernuts?;

(a)   The biggest fluke I have ever seen in a New Zealand group race;

or

(b)  Was that performance the cusp of us seeing a real champion.

I am betting on (a) but will be ready to applaud heartily if it is (b).  I will accept graciously that if I applaud it will be with a much lighter wallet.

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1 hour ago, Catalano said:

But if the 2019 Derby was to be $2 million, would that field be stronger than it would have been if it was to be $500k?

The only difference would be you may get some Australian raiders, the same staying NZ 3yos will be there no matter the stake, purely adding prizemoney will not make it a 'stronger race', for example comparing the Herbie Dyke that is worth double what the Zabeel Classic is or the NZ Stakes in March.

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Guest 2Admin2

Given that most of the money is coming from Sponsorship I guess the ARC can do what they want with it.  However wouldn't it be a smarter move to spread the sponsorship over a number of races than just one?  I realise that BMW (future Derby sponsor) does sponsor other big races but wouldn't there be some mileage in sponsoring a series of minor races that could lead up to those big ones?

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1 hour ago, Tauhei Notts said:

My question about the Derby, which will be answered tomorrow afternoon is GINGERNUTS.

I have watched the replay of the Avondale Guineas several times.

Was that performance by Gingernuts?;

(a)   The biggest fluke I have ever seen in a New Zealand group race;

or

(b)  Was that performance the cusp of us seeing a real champion.

I am betting on (a) but will be ready to applaud heartily if it is (b).  I will accept graciously that if I applaud it will be with a much lighter wallet.

 

10 minutes ago, hesi said:

Won't finish in the first half of the field

I backed it with a few seconds to spare on the J Parkes factor alone...have since heard me uncle backed it last 2 starts (maybe on name...who knows)

anyway, me cous is now in on the bandwagon (talking to him yestarday at Hastings) after the tear up ya ticket perfomance last start.

I,m hoping Tauhei...B,s your answer...we need another goodin.  

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Haven't seen track conditions but it's a 2 or 3 horse race on form. Sacred Elixir for me with Saville Row the main danger. What most forget is that it's 2400m and many good 2000m horses fall over in the last 200m. The track is littered with these failures. Remember Buzz Lightyear? Cheval Du Troy? Buzz was 5 lengths in front on the turn as OP thought he was on Vo Rogue ! If SE is right (and I'm assuming he is because he's starting) then it's all over. Unless of course, the start and great run in the VRC Derby so early in his 3yo career, has done what it seems to do with most who run in it.

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Anyone got anything to add on Jon Snow? I've been following him through spring and summer, and was initially disappointed with the effort at Waikato, but he seemed to get going very late, and his last 50m were as fast as anythings in the race - having said all that, I'm on Sacred Elixir.

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4 hours ago, Tauhei Notts said:

My question about the Derby, which will be answered tomorrow afternoon is GINGERNUTS.

I have watched the replay of the Avondale Guineas several times.

Was that performance by Gingernuts?;

(a)   The biggest fluke I have ever seen in a New Zealand group race;

or

(b)  Was that performance the cusp of us seeing a real champion.

I am betting on (a) but will be ready to applaud heartily if it is (b).  I will accept graciously that if I applaud it will be with a much lighter wallet.

The numbers suggest it was pretty impressive TN, with the very large proviso of that track and that inside lane.

If Pike has Sacred Elixir right, he will do me. Blinkers on means business, and third up he should be pretty close to his best, although there is that wee doubt about those Melbourne exertions taking a lot out of him last prep.

Savile Row, Camino Rocoso and Charles Road the dangers. ;)

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If the race can sustain this figure or more why not try to attract horses from Oz to run in it... the better the field the better for everyone...unless you are protectionist and don't like the overseas runners coming, but I see it as a positive.Cutting stakes is a further step backwards in my opinion.

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My picks for what it's worth

1. Saville Row

2. Gingernuts

3. One of Sacred Elixir/Charles Road/Mongolian Wolf

 

Best Bet of the Day

Race 2 # 4 Sacred Way

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Charles Rd looks ok, Excalibur looks very interesting I like the breeding and I don't mind Mongolian legend at Big place odds now Cameron's not on,very poor ride at Matamata and a better rider engaged

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I think it's good to have it at $1 mill, we need a flagship race of some sort with the industry struggling as it is. Sure, I would prefer a race like the Kelt once was to be our richest, a 2000m WFA race, but it's up to the other clubs to do the work to achieve that.

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