RaceCafe..#1...Tipsters Thread.... Share Your Fancies For Fun...Lets See Who The Best Tipsters Here Are.
Blind Squirrel

Avondale Guineas

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16 hours ago, Tauhei Notts said:

BruceL; thoughtful comments from you about the track being unusual for this time of the year.

The times ran suggest that the "eight" rating was a bit on the high side.

Your thoughts would be appreciated.

During summer when the tracks are hard and then heavy rainfall hits just before race day in my opinion the penetrometer system is very false. Sometimes the track is rated worse than it actually plays and sometimes the track is rated much better than it actually plays. As a result of this the times become irrelevant and don't match up to what we might ordinarily expect.

Examples of this is Ellerslie Railway Day 2016, Avondale Guineas Day last weekend, Te Aroha midweek meeting a couple of weeks ago where track was chipping out badly but hard underneath, and Thorndon Mile Day this year (where track was clearly not playing as a genuine summer Dead4 as rated , not a dig at the track as they had a lot of rainfall in the prior week but it was off and played that way later in the day, obviously the penetrometer doesn't take into consideration that the track had been overused and horses coming out wide etc (4 weeks in a row) etc)

So in my opinion track ratings during the summer when there has been heavy rain fall leading up never give a true guide on how it may play/times that may be run etc

 

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On 18/02/2017 at 11:34 PM, Trump said:

You're a goose Horsestopper. Have a look at my post. The first word is "IF". Say no more. Unlike your good self, I rarely tip odds on favs in a race. Come Derby Day, it will be interesting. "If" ( in commas for the Stoppers benefit) Sacred Elixir runs up to his Oz form - he will win the Derby. 

I think an apology is in order to the connections of Sacred Elixir Ernie. :ph34r:

Not a bad nag that Gingernuts B)

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