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Fartoomuch

Breeding Industry - Sales

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Unless there is a remarkable turnaround its going to be a bad sale for NZB and its Vendors.Premier sale stats leave a lot to be desired when compared to MM sale. Top 5 lots sold at Premier were all by Australian based stallions and the clearance rate 78%

The select sale is now on and its obviously a buyers market with a first day clearance rate of 66%. Poor by anyone,s standard and suggesting a lot of flesh will be heading towards R to R.

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1 hour ago, Nice Option said:

Forgive me if I am mistaken but the top 5 lots were, in order from 1st to 5th, O'Reilly, High Chap, Savabeel, Fastnet Rock and Savabeel......ie 1st, 3rd and 5th lot are by NZ based sires

Correct you are Nice Option. The point i was trying to get across was in relation to leading sires.

Leading Sires (three or more sold)

Sire Sold Average Aggregate Top Price
I Am Invincible 3 $295,000 $885,000 $425,000 (Lot 131)
Snitzel 7 $292,143 $2,045,000 $525,000 (Lot 271)
Exceed and Excel 3 $291,667 $875,000 $625,000 (Lot 312)
Fastnet Rock 12 $284,583 $3,415,000 $750,000 (Lot 173)
High Chaparral 10 $227,500 $2,275,000

$800,000 (Lot 130)

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After two days of the Select Sale it's a mess. The aggregate is down from  19.2 million to just over 14.0 million with slightly more catalogued and far less actually sold. 

Thats over 5 million gone from the industry just like that.

It's a 27% drop in income for the participants.

The fallout this time will be horrible. Last year everyone got a reprieve with the first rise in five years or thereabouts and now this.!

I wish Bill English, Nathan Guy, Glenda Hughes and John Allen had been there for the last two days rather than Monday, then they might finally understand, if that is possible!

I say, apply the same percentage drop to the staff of the Racing Board, both income and numbers, then our Industry might just have a chance  

 

 

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1 hour ago, Insider said:

After two days of the Select Sale it's a mess. The aggregate is down from  19.2 million to just over 14.0 million with slightly more catalogued and far less actually sold. 

Thats over 5 million gone from the industry just like that.

It's a 27% drop in income for the participants.

The fallout this time will be horrible. Last year everyone got a reprieve with the first rise in five years or thereabouts and now this.!

I wish Bill English, Nathan Guy, Glenda Hughes and John Allen had been there for the last two days rather than Monday, then they might finally understand, if that is possible!

I say, apply the same percentage drop to the staff of the Racing Board, both income and numbers, then our Industry might just have a chance  

 

 

They would still think the prices are good , as none of them have any idea about the cost of producing a horse, therein lies the problem.

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Insider totally agree that Salaries of the freeloaders at the head of the NZRB should be performance based. People are voting with their feet. Crowd size at the Select Sale on Wednesday and yesterday well down on previous years. No incentive to race horses while minimum stakes are cemented at $7,000. As for the Festival Sale NZ Bloodstock should be playing the song Sunday Bloody Sunday over the intercom.

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2017 Select Sale Statistics

  2017 SELECT SALE 2016 SELECT SALE 2015 SELECT SALE
AGGREGATE $20,679,500 $26,326,700 $18,304,000
AVERAGE $47,363 $57,734 $46,813
MEDIAN $40,000 $47,500 $35,000
CLEARANCE 76% 79% 75%
CATALOGUED 641 633 592
SOLD 437 456 391
TOP PRICE Lot 728 B.F Per Incanto - Grable - $300,000 Lot 827 B.C O'Reilly x Darcey Bussell - $300,000 Lot 610 B.C Tartan Bearer x Pink Pier - $525,000

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Karaka is a lot worse than it appears on paper.

There are vendors literally withdrawing horses on the day to avoid humiliation,

Some vendors are really only moving stock by keeping significant shares in the animals, it's not fair to name those vendors but one in particular is a big player.

There's no other way to look at this than as an absolute vote of no confidence in the insouciant attitude of both NZTR and the NZRB, and as the astute judges in the industry have been predicting for some time, the chickens are definitely coming home to roost.

What now ? that's the question, these horses that haven't sold have to go somewhere, surely they can't be recycled and pollute the R2R sale again.

If you're a small time stud with an average stallion, well your future must be gloomy indeed, and if you're a small time breeder who mates the odd mare, well you may as well cash up and move on because this is only going to get worse and there's no point producing something no one wants.

The only blue sky I can see is China, we so need them to start buying a couple of thousand yearlings a year off us or we're absolutely fooked.

At least now every sector has been smashed and abused, and hopefully that'll translate into united action if the NZRB meeting in March doesn't deliver an instant 15 million.

I guess the other way of looking at this is that it was a necessary correction, a shake out, but you do hate to see the pain that goes with that correction.

  •  

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Too much product....

Supply versus Demand.....

As we see from the weekly NZTR numbers blurb sheet , total starts are down 5 % season to date .Some smart 'Cafer can probably post how Total starts have tracked over the last decade...but Cubity only seems to recall red percentage numbers in that category for yonks .

China is fickle.....Queenstown tourist numbers falling allegedly recently due to ridiculous prices....Mrs Cubes says don't think these people are stupid .

Long and short of it...less thoroughbreds need to be foaled annually

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1 hour ago, Poisoned Dwarf said:

Everybody needs to listen to Dave......from NZ Herald today  "David Ellis has a message for people who would like to get involved in horse ownership - now is a good time."

my dear mother once told me - you need a good education, otherwise you will end up believing everything your hear and read ;)

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Anyone go?

 

2017 Festival Sale Statistics

  2017 FESTIVAL SALE 2016 FESTIVAL SALE 2015 FESTIVAL SALE
AGGREGATE $2,332,000 $3,020,200 $2,816,650
AVERAGE $14,854 $16,065 $14,670
MEDIAN $10,000 $12,000 $10,000
CLEARANCE 78% 79% 71%
CATALOGUED 241 298 329
SOLD 157 188 192
TOP LOT Lot 1132 B.C Super Easy x Astrogal $90,000 Lot 1199 Jimmy Choux x Asian Wind $80,000 Lot 1176 Br.C. Iffaaj x Skimmio $85,000

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5 hours ago, Trump said:

The Festival Sale seemed to hold up ! 

Many withdrawals Trump, that reduces passing and pushes the average up.

Usual story though, nice colts bought their money, most fillies struggled.

It's a tough game at the K3 level.

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Apart from the underlying cause (poor domestic racing environment), it's ok to have a "buyers" market now and then. If you think horse sales have had a bad year, what's going to be the effect when the inevitable collapse of the Real Estate "House of Cards" occurs ? :(

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1 hour ago, Jo_Neilson said:

I have a couple of average broodmares, I am thinking about sending them both to a good warmblood stallion. A. the stud fee is $1500 B. The going rate for a weanling from this stallion is $17 000. c. Both Mares throw good confirmation.

 

Quote

A friend of mine bred a nice TB mare that I had given her to a good warmblood....she was offered $7,000 for the foal as a weanling.

Why,  under the circumstances,  would you breed a TB?     Good luck with your choice.

 

 

 

Quote

 

 

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On ‎6‎/‎02‎/‎2017 at 6:29 AM, Midget said:

Many withdrawals Trump, that reduces passing and pushes the average up.

Usual story though, nice colts bought their money, most fillies struggled.

It's a tough game at the K3 level.

Midget the withdrawal rate has been consistent at circa 80% in each of the last 3 years.

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