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rdytdy

The Race That Stops A Third Of The Nation

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Like most other forms of gambling, betting on horse races is slowly losing popularity among Australian adults. In the year to September 2004, 8.3% of Aussies 18+ bet on horse-racing at least once in any given four-week period — but by September 2014, this had dropped to 5.3%. However, come Melbourne Cup and Spring Racing Carnival time, the percentage of the population having a flutter inevitably jumps up.

In November and December last year, 10.0% and 10.8% respectively of Aussie adults reported betting on horse-racing in the previous four weeks. That’s quite a difference from the 4.0% who reported doing so in October 2013 and the 5.4% in January 2014.

As the chart below shows, this trend is fairly consistent over the last four years, although the December figure has seen some decline.

Betting on horse-races month by month: a pattern emerges…

melbourne-cup-betting

Source: Roy Morgan Single Source (Australia), July 2010 – September 2014 (n=76,877).Average monthly sample n=1,507

Despite the increased punting activity around Melbourne Cup time, the proportion of Australians 18+ who watch the race on TV has gone down in recent years. Whereas 10 years ago 39% of Aussie adults said they tuned in for the event, this figure has since dropped to 31.1% at the year ended September 2014, making it less popular than the AFL Grand Final (33.7%) but more popular than the NRL Grand Final (25.6%).

Angela Smith, Group Account Director, Roy Morgan Research, says:

“Although betting on horse racing has been in decline across Australia for at least a decade, the Melbourne Cup (and the spring racing season generally) always causes a punting flurry, with significantly increased betting incidence around November and December.

“So much of the PR for the Melbourne Cup and the Spring Racing Carnival is clearly targeted at young people with its focus on fashion, fun and frivolity. Yet when we use Roy Morgan Research’s in-depth consumer profiling tool Helix Personas to analyse who is most likely to bet on horse racing and who’s most likely to be watching the event on TV, the results paint a different picture.

“Among the personas most likely to bet on horse racing are Rural Rewards, typically older, country-based couples with conservative attitudes; and Frugal Living, elderly people on low household incomes for whom having a flutter at the TAB is one of life’s little pleasures.  

“Rural Rewards are also the persona most likely to watch the Melbourne Cup on TV. Smart Money — typically well-off, middle-aged and very sociable — are also more likely than most to tune in to the big race. Chances are they’ll catch it at a Cup Day lunch or barbecue somewhere, surrounded by a bunch of like-minded friends.

“Younger personas such as Big Future and Making the Rent are in fact less likely than the average Aussie to watch the Cup on TV or bet on horse racing…”

 

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Gai Whathouse? Around two thirds of Australians don’t watch the Melbourne Cup, with declining rates of viewership over the last decade sharpest among people under 35.

In the year to June 2013, just 1 in 3 Australians aged 14+ (34%) said they watch the Melbourne Cup on TV ‘almost always or occasionally’, down from 38% 10 years ago.

At three o’clock on the first Tuesday in November, Australians under 35 are most likely going to just keep doing whatever they were doing at 2.59pm. 16% of 14-24 year olds (down from 26% in 2003) and 25% of 25-34 year-olds (down from 35%) say they watch the Cup on TV.

Even the most avid watchers, Australians 50+, began tuning out from 2007-2011 but are now back up, with 44% watching.

Those who watch the race on TV are, naturally, more likely to know who sponsors it. In the 12 months to June 2012, 22% of Australians overall associated Emirates with the Melbourne Cup—ranging from 26% of 35-49 year-olds to just 9% of the Under-25s. Over 10 years since it sponsored the race, Foster’s is still associated with the Cup by around 5% of Australians.

In Victoria, where Cup Day is a public holiday, overall TV viewership remains above the national average at 40%, although it’s also down slightly from 43% in 2003.

George Pesutto, Media and Communications General Manager, Roy Morgan Research, says:

“The Melbourne Cup may be an iconic national sporting event but Australians—under 35 especially—are less likely now than ten years ago to watch the race on TV.

“Perhaps it should be re-dubbed as ‘the race that stops an ever-shrinking proportion of the nation while the vast majority go about their normal business’.

“It is vital for brand marketers to carefully monitor changing trends in viewership to determine if their target market is actually tuning in.”  

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Hmm compelling stats Ted.

I do think in NZ that urbanisation has been a major killer of racing in this country, the reduction in Mum & Dad farmers across NZ has seen individual horse ownership plummet & with it wider interest in racing in general as urban NZers get further and further away from connection with farm animals.

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3 hours ago, rdytdy said:

Average monthly sample n=1,507

Think this says it all. (Over 20 million people live in Australia).

 

. A bigger pool of people would make it more interesting. Surveys like this can be misleading. 

 

I could do the same survey outside the front gate at Flemington on tuesday and it would paint a different picture.

Turnover seems to go up every year. Has anyone got those figures?

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That's correct Barry. 76,000 over a 4 year and 3 month period. 

Factor in Aus population is over 20 million and your looking at approximately 0.38% of Australians being involved in the survey over 4 years and 3 months.

Also doesn't appear to say where the people in Australia in the survey are? 

Im tipping if you did the survey in Ascot Vale the figures for who watch the melbourne cup would be alot higher than 1/3 of australians

The claim 2/3 of aussies don't watch the cup doesn't sound right in my opinion.

The trend from the survey is obvious no doubt but what relevance is the form at the end of the day?  it could stack up if you interviewed 20 million people but it didn't so its not hard evidence. More research needed. That's all im saying.

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Four things have happened in the cup.

The track is always watered;

The last gasp "have to win or be placed 2nd" to automatically get in races have been reduced in number;

The race is no longer a true handicap as having a top weight at 59kg compresses the weights and the race has turned into a conditions race;

The number of overseas horses present has diverted local interest

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3 minutes ago, Michael Roustoby said:

That's correct Barry. 76,000 over a 4 year and 3 month period. 

Factor in Aus population is over 20 million and your looking at approximately 0.38% of Australians being involved in the survey over 4 years and 3 months.

Also doesn't appear to say where the people in Australia in the survey are? 

Im tipping if you did the survey in Ascot Vale the figures for who watch the melbourne cup would be alot higher than 1/3 of australians

The claim 2/3 of aussies don't watch the cup doesn't sound right in my opinion.

The trend from the survey is obvious no doubt but what relevance is the form at the end of the day?  it could stack up if you interviewed 20 million people but it didn't so its not hard evidence. More research needed. That's all im saying.

About Roy Morgan Research

Roy Morgan Research is the largest independent Australian research company, with offices in each state of Australia, as well as in New Zealand, the United States and the United Kingdom. A full service research organisation specialising in omnibus and syndicated data, Roy Morgan Research has over 70 years’ experience in collecting objective, independent information on consumers.

In Australia, Roy Morgan Research is considered to be the authoritative source of information on financial behaviour, readership, voting intentions and consumer confidence. Roy Morgan Research is a specialist in recontact customised surveys which provide invaluable and effective qualitative and quantitative information regarding customers and target markets.

 

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

 

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

5,000

±1.4

±1.2

±0.8

±0.6

7,500

±1.1

±1.0

±0.7

±0.5

10,000

±1.0

±0.9

±0.6

±0.4

20,000

±0.7

±0.6

±0.4

±0.3

50,000

±0.4

±0.4

±0.3

±0.2

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1 hour ago, Michael Roustoby said:

That's correct Barry. 76,000 over a 4 year and 3 month period. 

Factor in Aus population is over 20 million and your looking at approximately 0.38% of Australians being involved in the survey over 4 years and 3 months.

The trend from the survey is obvious no doubt but what relevance is the form at the end of the day?  it could stack up if you interviewed 20 million people but it didn't so its not hard evidence. More research needed. That's all im saying.

Have a look at the margin of error data Ted posted above. It's very hard to argue with given the sample size in my view.

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48 minutes ago, Berri said:

Four things have happened in the cup.

The track is always watered;

The last gasp "have to win or be placed 2nd" to automatically get in races have been reduced in number;

The race is no longer a true handicap as having a top weight at 59kg compresses the weights and the race has turned into a conditions race;

The number of overseas horses present has diverted local interest

What do the first 3 have to do with run of the mill MC only punters? those 3 wouldn't even register a shit of interest to the average Australian punter.

The last one you mention is the only thing relevant as to why Aussie interest is falling.

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Ted and others, statistics are truely that. Made to be manipulated. Another statistic to add to the nature of things, exactly how much increase has there been to the local economy resulting from the spend by attendees of the Carnival? Look it up......Purvey anything and you need stats to support your cause ....20% of NZ's tourism income.

Betting will tell you what the realities are, not surveys.

I come every year, and believe me the people are here. Americans, Kiwi's that have never been, Europeans that cannot believe the prize money. Ted the youngers that don't participate, don't paticipate in anything but their phones, life will teach them reality as they get to experience more of it.

The fields tomorrow are the best there is and the Derby is ours I would have to think!!!!

Statistics are Trump territory........

 

 

 

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On 10/28/2016 at 8:13 PM, Berri said:

Four things have happened in the cup.

The track is always watered;

The last gasp "have to win or be placed 2nd" to automatically get in races have been reduced in number;

The race is no longer a true handicap as having a top weight at 59kg compresses the weights and the race has turned into a conditions race;

The number of overseas horses present has diverted local interest

Agree with the imports  that has been the major turnoff for me. I would love to see  one off our Cup races  be an automatic entry into the Melbourne Cup . Would add so much more interest from a NZ perspective and would give our  NZ based trainers and horses an  achieveable goal. How many European stayers do you really need in a Southern Hemisphere race . 

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On ‎28‎/‎10‎/‎2016 at 9:18 PM, barryb said:

What do the first 3 have to do with run of the mill MC only punters? those 3 wouldn't even register a shit of interest to the average Australian punter.

The last one you mention is the only thing relevant as to why Aussie interest is falling.

Seriously? The only reason the internationals have kept coming is that the track gets watered to keep them sweet. What happened to the vagrancies of the environment. It makes the outcome harder to predict and therefore gives everyone the thought that their selection has a chance. The more last gaspers you have the better. It creates a lottery effect and gives late comers a chance. This influences punters selections and therefore the lottery effect.

As a "conditions race", the race has a perceived predictability. The best of the European horses should be weighted the best because they skite that their form is the best, which it probably is. You don't do that by lowering the top weight because the gap between the best, at a top weight of 59, means the lessor performed horses can't have the range to make it a true handicap.

The real cost is the cultural one. Less people get interested, less people bet, gradually the race loses it's iconic status. Statistics are helpful and the trends provided would worry me. It would be interesting to see what the numbers were before these were displayed.

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Sign of the times.  The internet has contributed to people perhaps not knowing their next door neighbour but they have contact with people all around the world.  Similar to the Melbourne Cup.  No longer is it a case of "Is an Australian or Kiwi bred horse going to win the race".  With the entrance of European horses, surely the interest in the Melbourne Cup reaches a far greater audience around the World.  That can't be a bad thing, surely?  Life exists outside of Australasia - right?.  Having said that, I fully understand why the Australians are feeling a bit gutted.  Who are the Australian bred horses in the Melbourne Cup this year? 

Is it harder working out who is going to win this great race or is it my imagination?

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Watched the barrier draw for MC last night and couldn't believe how clueless the likes of that Nick Williams and other connections actually are, stating that barrier draws aren't important over 2 miles.

FYI Mr. Williams etc. barrier draws are paramount and even more crucial in a distance event. Anything outside 9 is a bad draw.
 

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Guest 2Admin2
1 hour ago, billy connolly said:

Watched the barrier draw for MC last night and couldn't believe how clueless the likes of that Nick Williams and other connections actually are, stating that barrier draws aren't important over 2 miles.

FYI Mr. Williams etc. barrier draws are paramount and even more crucial in a distance event. Anything outside 9 is a bad draw.
 

Not correct.  Barriers 8 to 14 have statistically been the best.  Barrier 7 one of the worst.

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1 hour ago, billy connolly said:

Watched the barrier draw for MC last night and couldn't believe how clueless the likes of that Nick Williams and other connections actually are, stating that barrier draws aren't important over 2 miles.

FYI Mr. Williams etc. barrier draws are paramount and even more crucial in a distance event. Anything outside 9 is a bad draw.
 

Absolute rubbish. 

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I doubt it too Barryb. Racing in NZ is becoming irrelevant to the general population. Even though NZ'ers are doing so well overseas the media don't cover it.

Lydia Ko has made womens golf mainstream news in Nz and Valerie Adams has done the same for shotput. Why can't racing cash in on James McDonald,Chris Waller etc? People don't like to admit it but the media is the one of the biggest influences on us.

Who would care about either womens golf or shotput if these 2 talented women weren't doing so well?

As for no europeans in the cup,you may as well put up hurdles or make it a highweight without them (including the imports).

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Videos and stories are not as easily accessible as they could be. That would create more of a following for the Europeans.

If I google a horses name I get get a mountain of betting corporate databases with little or no information. Trying to find genuine articles is like looking for a needle in a haystack which the average citizen is not going to do.

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19 hours ago, 2Admin2 said:

Not correct.  Barriers 8 to 14 have statistically been the best.  Barrier 7 one of the worst.

I've sat on a few decent ponies. On a good track barrier draws are paramount.


Statistics are immaterial because on a slow or worse (Van der Hum) track the draw doesn't enter the equation.


Did you notice the run last years MC winner got from the 1 barrier?
 

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