RaceCafe..#1...Tipsters Thread.... Share Your Fancies For Fun...Lets See Who The Best Tipsters Here Are.
Berri

A challenge to the breeding theorists

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 Swynford and co

as all of you have been extolling the virtues of your threoretical breeding systems, it would seem to me that the pinnacles of your theories must be encapsulated in the pedigrees of Winx and any other of the champions that have been recently compared with in respect of Winx's contempories. The challenge is, are they?

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I am very sceptical about breeding theories. However Nijinsky appears in the pedigree of six  of the top seven all time highest Australian stake earners. Makybe Diva is still number one. She is Nijinsky free. Numbers 2-7 are

2. Sunline

3.Winx

4.Northerly

5.So You Think

6.Black Caviar 

7. Buffering

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I am not one for breeding systems but a combination of horse ability, type and genetic affinity.

On Winx I comment that quite simply Street Cry was an outstanding racehorse and Vegas Showgirl was very useful also.

Both different shapes on type but both had strength.

Street Cry and the Machiavellian lines has worked very well with a majority of broodmares sires lines.

Street Cry could very likely have a genetic affinity with Mrs Peterkin or the sireline or damline of Mrs Peterkin.

Winx is by Street Cry. Winx's grandsire Success Express is out of Au Printemps, a granddaughter of Mrs Peterkin.

Au Printemps is also has an interesting 3X3 to two daughters of Challenger. One daughter of Challenger is the Hall Of fame inductee Gallorette. The other daughter of challenger is Legendra, dam of four stakes winners -Hasty Doll, Rich Tradition,Sky Clipper and Mrs Peterkin.

Zenyatta is by Street Cry. Zenyatta's fourth dam is Mrs Peterkin.

So both Winx and Zenyatta are by Street Cry and have Mrs Peterkin on the female line. Coincidence..... maybe.

I was quite impressed by Jameka's win in the Caulfield Cup. Her pedigree was interesting. The female line is the same as Cambridge Stud Power. Jameka carries a duplication of Legendra , mentioned above.

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Not good enough....I could highlight numerous pedigrees that contain the same data as you have described but are no good. I could also go right back into the pedigrees where there were only 3 stallions and 40 broodmares (with the odd piece of corruption in the gene pool) and the compilations would probably have a combination of statistical duplications in a number of good horses but equally (and most probably) that those same combinations are just as prevalent in more bad horses.

I'm still not convinced. My issue is that the theorists MUST have explainable demonstrations of their theories because their theories must be more prevalent in champions. If they are not then their theories are meaningless. After all, the champions are the benchmark of our industry. If you can't find the theory in all of these then everything else is relatively meaningless.

That is why we are still at least 36 years away from establishing the validity of the genome project.

 

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Berri

You know as well as anyone that there is no "silver bullet" in selecting horses whether it is based on a pedigree or on type. If there was, then Coolmore, Darley and everyone else would be onto it. Most people who look at pedigrees have their own ideas ( or share with others) on what they think are important and similarly those who look at types and temperament have their ideas. The fact that Winx did not sell for millions as a yearling shows that she didn't fill the criteria of those with deep pockets ( and presumably those with the best advice money can buy).

Those who look at pedigrees are just trying improve the odds of selecting a good horse in exactly the same way those who look for a particular type of horse . I think Swynford , for example, has said a few times he would always look at the horses he has selected "off paper" with the help of an experienced horseman. Similarly I doubt anyone would buy a horse of any value just on type and not at least look at the page in the catalogue.

It would be very boring if we all agreed with each other on the issue.

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Well said Breeder. Correct, no silver bullet out there.

For beginners I say breed the best you have to the best you can afford. There is still plenty of value out there with stallions in the $5,000 to $10,000 service fee range.

And if and when the genome project finds the "real" silver bullet as to a horses race performance we will wait and see what effect it has on the industry.

 

 

 

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My theory Berri   ...is absolutely RIGHT ON THE BUTTON when looking at the pedigree of Winx

And my system is probably one of the only of its kind in the world that shows it clearly.

Most people when searching for answers on how to obtain a Group One winner or in this case a 'champion' look to the stallion.  (and your posts have always reminded me that you are like minded) or they buy the most beautiful looking horse from the sales.

I love Street Cry, and I love a beautiful looking horse,  but the truth is Street Cry only produced a Group One winner in every 70 runners. 

My theory has always been  'the mares, and the male lines of the mares' ARE THE KEY and with 'line breeding' one can increase your chances of success as much as ten times.

So when I look at Winx's pedigree, ( and as I have always tried to promote on this site) whether looking to buy a horse or planning thoroughbred matings, I look at the top line of her dam, in this case  Vegas Showgirls'  male line. Simple research that takes less than minutes to do shows me that mares from this male line (that of Success Express) are responsible for 5 Cox Plate victories in the last 12 years.  This is a staggering number as mares from this male line represent less than  .001% of the brood-mare population. 

 

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So to understand my theory further when looking at pedigrees, I do not look for duplications in certain generations in the subject horse or believe in the 'sex balancing theory'

I believe that the mare has a bias to her male line and by using this male line and matching it or connecting it with a stallions female line or the brood-mare sires in that line produces the best results.

The pedigree below a great example 

lady kip.jpg

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Swynford

Interesting figures on the Cox Plate. Winx definitely looks to me ( I'm no expert on type!) to have thrown to Al Akbar on type. Back when I had some spare cash I bred a couple by him --similar types but I think Winx perhaps is a bit more solid . When Berri put this thread I did a little research on Street Cry and one thing that was said about him was he imparted an ability in his off spring to accelerate quickly in the last 300 odd metres --certainly true with Winx. 

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So when I look at Winx's pedigree, the first question is has the male line of her dam been duplicated in the stallion some how,  And using the bias thing "my theory is RIGHT ON THE BUTTON.

winx.jpg

 

This family, that of Prince John, is also the female family of Cosmic Bomb  a brood-mare sire of Halo's dam

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After looking at the 1st dam I then look at the 2nd and subsequent dams. Particularly at the male lines of these mares. 

This is where my system probably leads the world in understanding pedigrees, It shows that Northern Dancer has been duplicated in the stallion Street Cry through "his cousins' Machiavellian and his brood-mare sire Halo. 

 

Winx2.jpg

 

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I am truly trying to follow your theory BUT I'm still in the dark. I see many many pedigrees of horses similar to those you have posted who have been no good....in fact 95% are no good. In respect of Success Express, I knew his father (Hold Your Peace) and I saw Success Express win the Breeders Cup at 2 at Hollywood Park. When he was secured to stand at Trelawney I was ecstatic. Was a bugger when he was moved to Australia. I also knew Al Akbar, a good horse on rain affected tracks but not just a wet tracker. Slightly long in the pasterns. 

Street Cry has enjoyed great success with mares carrying Northern Dancer in their pedigree and Winx is another example; her granddam a daughter of Voodoo Rhythm (Northern Dancer). Street Cry has Gr.1 winners Shocking, Street Sense, Seventh Street, Pride Of Dubai, Long John, Lyric Of Light, Majestic Roi, Here Comes Ben, and Street Hero bred this way.

Inbred 5x5 to Natalma through daughter Raise The Standard (Hoist The Flag) and son Northern Dancer (Nearctic), Winx was bred by John Camilleri under his Fairway Thoroughbreds banner, having paid A$455,000 for Vegas Showgirl (Al Akbar) at the 2008 Magic Millions National Broodmare Sale. Rated the third top filly on the New Zealand 2yo Free Handicap of 2004-5, Vegas Showgirl won seven races overall, including the Listed Soliloquy Stakes at Ellerslie and the Listed Avondale 2yo Fillies Stakes at Avondale.

Winx is the first Gr.1 winner in the immediate generations of her pedigree since the 1956 Doomben 10,000 winner El Khobar (Gabador), a half-brother to her fourth dam Vegas (Stunning). Further back the 1924 New Zealand Oaks winner Starmist (Autumnus) is one of four feature race winners out of Stardancer (Martian), the eighth dam of Winx.

With no inbreeding in her first five generations, Vegas Showgirl has a three-year-old colt El Divino (Snitzel), who dead-heated for the Gr.3 Kindergarten Stakes last season and a two-year-old colt by Snitzel who was sold for A$2.3 million as a yearling last year. 

So I really don't understand why you are so sold on your process because I still don't get it.....and don't think I'm closed minded. You can always make a bias argument to make sure the square fits into the square hole. What you haven't done is provide me with a clear pathway that makes all these champions have the magic bullet which can be cleanly described. 

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Swynford....you've got to be kidding!!! There are a few people who are reading this post who will be having a little chuckle to themselves at your latest comment. I've asked you this once before but I don't believe I actually got an answer....the question is "what group one winner have you bred yourself and what group one winner have you advised to be mated that I can independently qualify?" This can be the only real test of your theories. If what you are saying is correct then one in seven foals that you make matings for must be a group one winner.

You made the above statement so I must have the opportunity to inquire. I'm not on a witch hunt. I just don't get your breeding theory, have asked you for specific explanations in an attempt to understand it, and you respond by offering your recent comment.

Not only have I been looking at pedigrees most of my life, I have spent considerable time with John Aiscan (Tesco's protege), the pedigree managers for Bunker Hunt, the Aga Khan, Judmont and the Phipps' to name a few. Although not a breeder, I have my fair say with a number of breeders who seem to be regularly breeding group one winners. I've also spent considerable talking time with Emmiline Hill of the Genome project in Ireland in an effort to understand the potential cross over between pedigree and genetic predispositions. I've also been part of a research project that originated at Curtin, progressed to Davis and has its final resting place in little old NZ. This project is mapping physiological ability with genetics through the use of sensors which look for frequency traits that are present in genetic lineage. Not only have I physiologically mapped sire-lines to three generations, but also female lines to three generations covered by those sires. We shall one day find out if there is any statistical relevance present but at the moment it looks interesting.

So cut the crap and don't be a tosser. If you can't receive a genuine inquiry and offer a robust explanation as a response, then work on your explanation because it currently doesn't make sense.

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Guys lets not argue.

Berri, the names of the people you have met are very interesting. Perhap you could share some of there theories. Juddmonte is a website I visit to try and understand how they do things and why. You could possibly expand on this?

Your piece above states-

Street Cry has enjoyed great success with mares carrying Northern Dancer in their pedigree and Winx is another example; her granddam a daughter of Voodoo Rhythm (Northern Dancer).

Inbred 5x5 to Natalma through daughter Raise The Standard (Hoist The Flag) and son Northern Dancer (Nearctic).....

A large number of mares out there in NZ and Australia have Northern Dancer in their bloodlines. So the Machiavellian line who's granddam is Raise The Standard ( a daughter of Natalma ) gives a sex balanced cross with Northern Dancer ( a son of Natalma ).

The almighty Danehill is 3X3 to Natalma through a son and a daughter.

Danehill 347 SW from 2082 runner, from 2414 foal.

Berri ( or anyone else ) can you tell us if you think a sex balanced duplication of the dam (Natalma) of one of the most important stallions in the world (Northern Dancer) had a an impact on Danehill's ability as a stallion?

 

 

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One extra note on Juddmonte and the mighty Frankel.

Frankel is by Galileo out of a mare by Danehill.

Frankel has now sired 18 winners. Only 1 of the 18 winners is out of a mare from the Danehill sire line( being a mare by Danehill Dancer).

 

 

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25 minutes ago, Nasrullah said:

One extra note on Juddmonte and the mighty Frankel.

Frankel is by Galileo out of a mare by Danehill.

Frankel has now sired 18 winners. Only 1 of the 18 winners is out of a mare from the Danehill sire line( being a mare by Danehill Dancer).

 

 

Makes sense, With the poor record of in-breeding Danehill you would hope that the majority of mares he served were from a non Danehill sire line.

The one Frankel that you mentioned that is out of a Danehill line mare is Cunco, he has a very interesting pedigree as his sire (Frankel) is a grandson of Sadler's Wells out of a Danehill mare and his dam (Chrysanthemum) is a grandson of Danehill out of a Sadler's Wells mare.

Your statement reminds me of a recent article (racing post I think)  in regards to who Coolmore will be sending most of their top class race mares by Galileo to once at stud as many of these top Galileo racemares are out of Danehill sire line broodmares. So they don't want be wanting to further duplicate the Danehill and Sadler's Wells, stallions mentioned were Zoffany and War Front (who they have used in the past who stands in America), unfortunately the ideal stallion to use is Dubawi but Coolmore won't use Darley stallions!

The search for different outcross options remains

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It's actually a real mess.....stallions covering 200 odd mares each season....progeny that have multiple strands of Northern Dancer on both sides. We're seeing an explosion of wind afflictions, immune response irregularities and a mess of champion racehorses who are claimed to be the best ever but unfortunately none of them are materially challenging historical race times. All well and good giving Frankel (for example) an all time highest rating after only 14 starts but surely the highest ever rated horse should not only win those races but win them in the fastest times ever. That's the real measure of Bolt....not his unbeaten record.

So to the pattern of the current thoroughbred industry. We are being seriously fucked up by the likes of Coolmore. Greed is now King followed by a topping of fashion. The whole game should be trying to improve the breed, or at the very least, attempting to maintain the vitality and duribility of the breed. 

There is a common language being will progeny be saleable. That's bollocks. It should be does my mare suit on type and balance of pedigree so that one breeds vitality and soundness. The Northern Dancer breed are not really durable, so crossing them a sqillions times won't be good for the breed. One only has to go back a few generations to wonder why the likes of Hyperion and Bold Ruler have been banned to the back blocks when at their peak they were where Danehill and co are now. What is seriously conspicuous is that for all his amazing progeny, where is a hier apparent sire son to Galileo? Now before you start jumping up and down about Frankel, just remember he covered mares in his first season who included 40 odd group one winners and 60 odd dams of group winners, and when his progeny hit the group one races, they failed. I've been a real fan of this horse from the day I saw him as an I raced 2yo but I'm just keeping it real. It also didn't stop me from being the under bidder of a yearling that made 1.1m quid this year.

As to the serious breeders that I mentioned....the main trait of all of them is that they try to breed for the breed and not the sales ring. In some instances they are setting up the following generation's progeny. Bunker Hunt was into hybrid vigour and achieved this by buying what he thought was pedigree wise the best representatives of certain bloodlines. So he sourced mares and horses from all over the World, in particular South America.

if I were to articulate the general expression, it would be that all of these breeders really knew their breed on type and personality and they continue to try and promote the essence of that

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Berri, how wonderful to read your above post.  My heroes are Prince Khalid Abdullah and HRH Aga Khan - both breed to race thus improving their own bloodlines and in all honesty, would have to be the most successful breeders in the world, all without spending the huge amounts of money, the other camps have spent to achieve their goals.  

I have no time for the mob across the Irish Sea.  As you correctly say, who is the heir apparent to Galileo?  Or in our part of the world, where is the stand out Australian Group one winning son of Fastnet Rock? And what about their group one winning Galileo mares - as you say, no way Dubawi.  The politics standing in the way of thoroughbred racehorse development.  Don't you wish you could bang their respective heads together and pour in a good dose of common sense!

Today, with the influx of Asian money and the young, aggressive bloodstock agents, thoroughbred breeding and racing has just become another stock exchange vehicle.  I refer to today's agents as "dedicated followers of fashion" - ie. whatever is trending.  There is a perfect example of this at the moment.  A large Asian owned breeding establishment in Victoria were "astute" enough to buy a nice mare at auction in the US in foal to Bernadini for $US80K.  The first of the mare's progeny has now won a Group 1 at Del Mar, and now this stud is putting the mare back on the market, obviously not interested in developing the family further to SH time but to cash in.  Dare I say this is typical of where the industry is going - trading is the name of the game with little interest in breeding horses for race track success (and I'm talking globally) Its all about the "page" (oh, how I detest that term!) and not necessarily physical type!

I admire the studs that don't have a shuttle stallion - i.e. Widden & Waikato Studs.  They have to be innovative in promoting their locally bred stallions and year, after year, they produce the goods.  Its racetrack success that drives their product!  

 

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Berri and La Zip you raise an interesting point.

However each breeder will have different objectives on what they want to achieve.

Those objectives are generally breeding so sell or breeding to race or breeding to race and breed to for many generations.

All will be attempting to breed stakes winners or money winners but the breeding to own for many generations would not likely inbreed as much as this will restrict their options or even success long term.

I agree that too much inbreeding or too close will cause issues however there is a difference between the breeder with one or two mares looking to sell or race and a large stud wanting to breed for generations. And too close will depend on where and which particular horse it is. There are some greats of years gone by that were super sound, tough and with big hearts, and duplicating them may not be seen as a risk but adding soundness and durability.

Princequillo and Nashua are good examples.

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On 10/23/2016 at 7:54 PM, Berri said:

Not good enough....I could highlight numerous pedigrees that contain the same data as you have described but are no good. I could also go right back into the pedigrees where there were only 3 stallions and 40 broodmares (with the odd piece of corruption in the gene pool) and the compilations would probably have a combination of statistical duplications in a number of good horses but equally (and most probably) that those same combinations are just as prevalent in more bad horses.

I'm still not convinced. My issue is that the theorists MUST have explainable demonstrations of their theories because their theories must be more prevalent in champions. If they are not then their theories are meaningless. After all, the champions are the benchmark of our industry. If you can't find the theory in all of these then everything else is relatively meaningless.

That is why we are still at least 36 years away from establishing the validity of the genome project.

 

 

Given champions are the Extream exception ....Actually asking for a model to predict the variance is an oximoron. 

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