RaceCafe..#1...Tipsters Thread.... Share Your Fancies For Fun...Lets See Who The Best Tipsters Here Are.
Glen Hunt

Box Draw Policy needs changing

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My PC has been down for a couple of days so forgive my slow reply.

Congratulations Glen,

This has been a pet project of mine for quite some time and is now more than ever the time for it to be looked at as it is definitely a welfare issue. it would be so easily implemented and I can assure you that it will be given significant consideration in the improvements to be implemented in NSW as it was touched upon in McHugh's Special Commission. 

 

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12 hours ago, Slim Shady said:

This may seem a very odd question but I do have some logic behind asking, what is the first letter of your dogs names that are constantly drawing box 4 and 5, also have they been racing in basically exactly the same field of runners from week to week? Thanks.

I have wondered if there is a secret code as well slim, Shelley's example is extraordinary, what are the chances of that happening. We have two maiden with names starting with F and B that have had box's 4 and 5 respectively in their ;last two starts one at Wanganui and one at Auckland , over all the F has had 3474744 and B has had 5365455 which caused me to say F that

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8 hours ago, GOM said:

I have wondered if there is a secret code as well slim, Shelley's example is extraordinary, what are the chances of that happening. We have two maiden with names starting with F and B that have had box's 4 and 5 respectively in their ;last two starts one at Wanganui and one at Auckland , over all the F has had 3474744 and B has had 5365455 which caused me to say F that

Yes GOM, I think both Slim and yourself are on to something.

After numerous complaints and negative comments regarding this, The Box Draw selection process was explained in one of the On Track mag's last year, unfortunately I filed mine last month under File 13 so am not able to use any references so please forgive me if some is wrong but do remember at the time thinking “How is this Random?”

Getting a Random Box should be the same % chance as getting any of the 8 boxes, hence 12.5% chance of getting Box 1 and so on to Box 8 but we all know that is not the case.

What they explained was how you would have a higher % chance of getting the same box draw as your last start, example they showed was something similar (This is not Accurate, %'s only used to express the example)

 

If your last Box was Box 4 then your % chances of Box draw for next Start is as follows :-

 

Box 1 - 5%

Box 2 - 11%

Box 3 - 25%

Box 4 - 40%

Box 5 - 25%

Box 6 - 11%

Box 7 - 9%

Box 8 – 7%

 

This step they use is not 'Random', yet 'Random Loading'

They went on with Statistics on 'Dummy' draws, and stated that after 500 Races the Trainer's Box Draws should equal out. What ??? I have to wait 10 years for my loop to start again.

 

The biggest problem with a Random Generator is that there is always a pattern, how short or long the pattern takes to form is dependent on what is used as the starting point, I've always liked to use the current date and time when the Random Generator is called upon, therefore the pattern is never repeated, but I have no idea what is in use for our current system but taking the % level for Box draw it looks like they may use the last Box drawn as the starting point. It's almost as if they use a 'Heads or Tails' formulae to get a result.

 

Here is a very Basic example of Box Draw using Heads & Tails that all of you can try and maybe even be amazed at the similarity of your current box allocation.

 

Rules

  1. Start at the Box number you last had.

  2. Toss a coin.

  3. If it is Heads go to Step 8

  4. Toss a coin

  5. If it is Heads you have this Box. Finished

  6. Move up 1 Box (If this makes Box 9 then change to Box 1)

  7. Go To Step 2

  8. Move down 1 Box (If this makes Box 0 then change to Box 8)

  9. Go To Step 2

 

I hope this helped.

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9 hours ago, GOM said:

I have wondered if there is a secret code as well slim, Shelley's example is extraordinary, what are the chances of that happening. We have two maiden with names starting with F and B that have had box's 4 and 5 respectively in their ;last two starts one at Wanganui and one at Auckland , over all the F has had 3474744 and B has had 5365455 which caused me to say F that

I recently had an in depth "tour" of the box draw procedure from nominating to box selection. My following comments are possibly only applicable to the two northern clubs as im not sure what the other clubs procedures are because apparently (and quite bizarrely) they are all different! Firstly I can categorically say that I now believe that there is no way possible for a "third party" or club rep to affect the outcome of the box draw selection, however, I do believe that the system potentially has a flaw that is making the draw far from random. My research would suggest that if you are racing against basically the same runners each week then the chances of getting the same box are high. This is because of a computerized "organisation" that takes place seconds before the computerized draw. My honest belief is that the only possible explanation for constant mid pack draws simply comes down to the day we all decide the names of our race dogs.....! This makes me wonder if some breeders have worked this out well before now!..

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10 minutes ago, Nadzeya Ostapchuk said:

Love a good conspiracy theory Forrest.... wait that starts with an "F" too :D

Mike check out Fortis Fiona if you think the letter "F" is "Flawed". 

You've thrown your shotput to early Nadzeya!!! I never exposed what "computerized" organisation took place prior to the draw but you clearly know its rearranged in alphabetical order...this puts your suggestion of the "F" conspiracy in doubt because thats not where im heading, I would suggest that the last quarter of the alphabet appear to draw either 1 or 8 (more frequently not always) and unfortunately for wassa the first quarter may tend to draw mid pack?....have the association done dummy (excuse the pun) tests to see if by leaving the fields as first presented as opposed to rearranging them alphabeticaly returns equal or drastically different results? Good job for them on wet day...mind you any day would likely suit given their anticipation to palm off the workload to a online service!

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3 minutes ago, Nadzeya Ostapchuk said:

Never shoot early m8. I was referring to Mikes Maiden.

You have done more homework than me on how the system works but please if the latter half of the alphabet works can Spare Some Time get a 1 or 2 box before it turns three please???

Its more likely to get a box 8 I believe, however I will do my best to give you the secret to make this happen....thats once I work it out!  I'm merely offering suggestions to those who believe the box draw selection is flawed and after examining it the alphabetical rearrangement is the only possible explanation for it in my opinion. ...why do they have to do it like that? Imagine if people found out it was actually rearranged into trainers alphabetical order? Maan there would be hell to pay so why do it as its currently done?...mix it up!

Ps: nadzeya the snapper are running down here and the pukas are fat!

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If that is what happens (and I honestly don't know and have never asked) how many letters did the computer programmers write back to?

Not beyond the realms to have 8 x Homebush or Bigtime's in the same field...... maybe it would kill the computer????

West Coast providing at the mo m8. 

Still eating the 18 to 6lb last set but let me know when the Kingie's start and I'm there!!!!

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16 minutes ago, Nadzeya Ostapchuk said:

If that is what happens (and I honestly don't know and have never asked) how many letters did the computer programmers write back to?

Not beyond the realms to have 8 x Homebush or Bigtime's in the same field...... maybe it would kill the computer????

West Coast providing at the mo m8. 

Still eating the 18 to 6lb last set but let me know when the Kingie's start and I'm there!!!!

Haha nice fish mate. 

The example you provide re homebush and bigtimes is a good one and certainly one that could exploit what im attempting to relay. Without going back in history to find these above mentioned fields and how they did actually draw I would pick that the homebush dogs (lets say 6 of them) would of possibly drawn boxes 2-7 and the bigtimes 1 & 8, thats going off what ive examined. What you say about the "f" named dog is only applicable if "fanny" (example only) ends up in a field where she's alphabetically in the middle of the pack (prior to box draw) if youve got 2 'A' letter dogs, 4 'C' letter dogs and 1 'D' letter dog then fanny actually ends up as the last on the alphabetical list hence possibly finally giving fanny a go from box 1 or 8? So given that I suggest noming spare some time with the hope that all other dogs in its field start with either thrilling or zipping!!!

 

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Here is the box starts for my little girl who used to race for you to try & work out the pattern. Also as you can see she never had box 8 in her whole career.

BOX 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Starts 2 3 3 7 1 2 4 0

 

Now by looking at it the alphabetical theory doesn't work out cause she had box 4 more times then anything else & her race name started with C.

 

This isn't a dig or anything against anyone on here it's just to show the stats for my dog when she raced.

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8 hours ago, Gary Sharp said:

Here is the box starts for my little girl who used to race for you to try & work out the pattern. Also as you can see she never had box 8 in her whole career.

BOX 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Starts 2 3 3 7 1 2 4 0

 

Now by looking at it the alphabetical theory doesn't work out cause she had box 4 more times then anything else & her race name started with C.

 

This isn't a dig or anything against anyone on here it's just to show the stats for my dog when she raced.

Well going from that you and wassa have something in common...his dog starting with "c" ends up mid boxes too more often than not?

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6 hours ago, jimmyintheruck said:

One of my dogs "S" started 12 times from 7 from 36 starts.

Well theres a pattern emerging right there then? Were the rest of the field evenly spread in the way of alphabetical order and were you racing against give or take the same runners each time? 

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1 hour ago, Gary Sharp said:

I wonder what her stats would have been like if I had used her kennel name as part of her racing name cause that started with S. lol

I'm not so sure that it is based on the Dog's Race name, it does make sense that they are put things into alphabetical order prior to box draws as programmers like to make things simple and putting things alphabetically and numerically achieve this for them.

If you have a look at the fields and Today's Manukau's fields are a classic example, how many times do you see Trainers runners drawn beside each other, example is in Race 7, Udy's take boxes 1,2 & 3, yes,  2 different Kennels but they both start with Udy.

 

Just an observation and a point to show that they certainly aren't as Random as they should be.

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Excellent seminar from Robbie Britton. I agree with all he says. I have practiced this with my own breeding, rearing, and educating for the last 30yrs. As far as the tracks go, they need slowing down, and the long lure is a good point too. I also firmly believe in peer pressure when breaking in. I would take a whole litter of 8/10 pups to the track at 4/5 months old and let them all chase the lure up the straight together. The keenest would encourage the weakest to chase. Anyway, excellent ideas for mine. I think my idea of starting racing later, and providing racing for older dogs could also be added to help prolong the life of the Greyhound.

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I don't believe in any reward system for racing manners that you cannot use at the track. That narrows it down to praise and a lot of patting. That is the reason why I like to catch my own dogs whenever possible or at least use someone familiar to them, so I can reinforce with them that they have done well. If you give them food or other rewards you cannot use after a race you are in danger of doing the opposite.

 Sounds pretty simple but I reckon it makes a difference especially if you remember the only way an animal learns is through pain or pleasure and it responds far better to the pleaure. Same as us humans

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On ‎12‎/‎10‎/‎2016 at 8:34 PM, Glen Hunt said:

I welcome all thoughts, comments and even criticism, I don't imply that this will stop the checks & injuries that happen in our races but it would greatly reduce them.

Speaking strictly from a punters perspective, I see no material benefit from box seeding, or any form of seeding for that matter beyond the grading structure. The mechanics of greyhound racing are such that, in my opinion, the trainer is more of a disadvantage to the runner than the box draw. To improve the racing experience (for runners) and to lessen the risk and or extent of injury, I think Bruce Teague (from NSW) hits the nail on the head in a lot of his articles where he cites overall track research and design.

If your charges ability to win is dictated by which box it has drawn, then I'd make the humble suggestion that you probably need to work on getting the shoe to fit the foot rather than the foot to fit the shoe.

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