RaceCafe..#1...Tipsters Thread.... Share Your Fancies For Fun...Lets See Who The Best Tipsters Here Are.
Mattski

Kiwi Group 1 Melb Spring?

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It seems that Kiwi trained Group 1 winners in the Melb Spring have been fairly rare the last decade since the Sunline/Ethereal/Miss Potential/Our Maizcay days. Dundeel over Atlantic Jewel, two derby wins with Sangster and Lion Tamer. Maybe 1-2 others that escape me?

Scared Elixer Caufield Guineas surely a BIG chance?

Are Valley Girl / Provocative good enough to win a Caufield Cup?

What about Kawi in the Mackinnon? Sofia Rosa? Any other realistic chances?

I am picking 2 Group 1's this spring!

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Back to those horses nominated.

Kawi...has he got the temperament for thr big time ? He looks like an absolute prick to ride and he should've been called 'faucet' because he runs hot & cold.

Sofia Rosa...isn't that a swimmer or have I got the wrong horse ? We haven't had a wet MC since Van der Hum have we ?

Domt know why but I really really like Valley Girl & Sacred Elixir to get a decent prize each.

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On 10 August 2016 at 7:42 PM, turny said:

Any horse CWJ rides - has passport will travel - NZ's premier big race day rider - no brainer

Out of interest since you rate him so much how many premier winners has he ridden in the last year / 5 years? Be surprised if he's top 5 at least. 

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18 hours ago, GONSTA said:

Out of interest since you rate him so much how many premier winners has he ridden in the last year / 5 years? Be surprised if he's top 5 at least. 

You do need to realise he is SI based so isn't going to get the top class NI rides very often. You cannot deny his consistency over many years. He is the best jockey I have ever seen consistently up close. Something many people forget is that you can go to a provincial SI race meeting and see one of NZ's top sportsmen. Not many other sports can say that.

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On 8/10/2016 at 11:58 AM, Midget said:

Back to those horses nominated.

Kawi...has he got the temperament for thr big time ? He looks like an absolute prick to ride and he should've been called 'faucet' because he runs hot & cold.

Sofia Rosa...isn't that a swimmer or have I got the wrong horse ? We haven't had a wet MC since Van der Hum have we ?

Domt know why but I really really like Valley Girl & Sacred Elixir to get a decent prize each.

I do wonder whether Kawi might be one of those horses that could grow another leg if he was thrown into the hustle and bustle of Australian racing. When he learns that he can't just cruise along, sit back and have one sprint at them, and actually has to work hard in tight quarters  it could be the making of him.

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Horses are a bit like humans aren't they ? The smart ones, as in clever and intelligent, invariably go a lot further than the dumb fuckers who've got all the ability but no brains.

I've got Kawi pegged as having lots of ability but bugger all intelligence.

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They are hard to win.....but can be won with the target being right.

 

Sofia Rosa can win the Myer but I can't see a Derby Winner  from our last 2YO crop. The Cox will be harder to win than ever before, off shore talent, local talent and Kiwis will be of the highest order, but the mare is going to be very hard to roll, that mare is the best they have had past a mile in decades....the big W

 

 

 

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Yes, Winx is special and is "The One" ( sorry Gerrard !). However, she's had an Op, is a year older and Highland Reel has also gone on with it. At the odds, HR is value. Then if it puddles down, maybe LV comes right into it? Don't you love Melb in the Spring...

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On ‎12‎/‎08‎/‎2016 at 9:11 PM, John Clydesdale said:

They are hard to win.....but can be won with the target being right.

 

Sofia Rosa can win the Myer but I can't see a Derby Winner  from our last 2YO crop. The Cox will be harder to win than ever before, off shore talent, local talent and Kiwis will be of the highest order, but the mare is going to be very hard to roll, that mare is the best they have had past a mile in decades....the big W

 

 

 

Sofia Rosa is targeting a Caulfield Cup campaign so would be very unlikely to feature in a Myer, Depending on Hawkes Bay results Stolen Dance may be a hope in a race like the Myer, has an outstanding mile record and a Mares set weights race would suit

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Stolen Dance is a 2000m horse don't you think ?

As for the Derby, surely Sacred Elixir is a great Derby type. He's wintered in Queensland, he's fit, he ticks all the boxes to a degree no NZ horse who's gone before has.

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I would say Stolen Dance is a miler that can stretch to 2000m and her record probably suggests that , 9 starts at a mile for 7 wins and 2 seconds (including a G2, G3 and a track record), a strong paced mile looks her go and this season will have opportunities to target the miles,  but still good enough to place at G1 level over 2000m

 

I would agree that Sacred Elixir looks a great derby hope, breeding wise/type wise and form wise

 

 

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28 minutes ago, Midget said:

Stolen Dance is a 2000m horse don't you think ?

As for the Derby, surely Sacred Elixir is a great Derby type. He's wintered in Queensland, he's fit, he ticks all the boxes to a degree no NZ horse who's gone before has.

agreed , nothing has been as impressive as Sacred Elixir (nz) in a long while IMHO

looking at all his kiwi starts on replay before he came to (aus) and those since ,  he has as good a form line as So You Think (nz)  heading towards a possible Cox Plate start.

the Cox Plate is an awesome race for quality 3 yos , he rates better than Viscount by a stretch and it nearly knocked off Northerly (aus)and Sunline (nz)

if the Kiwi has a trouble free prep anything could happen;) .

and then there is Provocative (nz)....

geez Baz and the scs crew could have their best ever spring......

 

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On 15 August 2016 at 9:24 AM, BruceL said:

Sofia Rosa is targeting a Caulfield Cup campaign so would be very unlikely to feature in a Myer, Depending on Hawkes Bay results Stolen Dance may be a hope in a race like the Myer, has an outstanding mile record and a Mares set weights race would su

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I haven't seen anything to change my thoughts about SR. Happy to be proved wrong, but not sure she is in the position to show her best. 4YO season can be challenging for some mares. Zabeel factor often made the difference in that transition from 3 to 4, not too many like him!

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