RaceCafe..#1...Tipsters Thread.... Share Your Fancies For Fun...Lets See Who The Best Tipsters Here Are.
Dopey

2015/16 free handicaps

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Xtrav has beaten nothing in NZ. First Serve ? (First who?). Name one one horse that finished 2nd or 3rd in Xtrav 's "NZ G1" wins that has done anything? Pretty hard. I hope he turns up in Melb and goes good but so far, he has not measured up. Excuses will be made for him - didn't travel, didn't settle, had a cold, left his lunch at home etc. But at the moment, the jury is def out on The X but as far as SE goes, he's won an Oz G1 and the manner of his win has got serious "non-connected to the Stable" judges rating him. It will be an interesting Spring :)

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9 minutes ago, Trump said:

Xtrav has beaten nothing in NZ. First Serve ? (First who?). Name one one horse that finished 2nd or 3rd in Xtrav 's "NZ G1" wins that has done anything? Pretty hard. I hope he turns up in Melb and goes good but so far, he has not measured up. Excuses will be made for him - didn't travel, didn't settle, had a cold, left his lunch at home etc. But at the moment, the jury is def out on The X but as far as SE goes, he's won an Oz G1 and the manner of his win has got serious "non-connected to the Stable" judges rating him. It will be an interesting Spring :)

That race I believe the form will not stand up... track was a joke, field was way below top class. Nice horse but not a superstar YET in my opinion. The whole carnival form is dodgy in my opinion.

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Midget, you are talking shit now and must be on the piss. You say the Atkins is a shit race and nothing's come out of it over the last 10 years. I guess Brazen Beau and Zoustar, who couldn't win it, were slugs? Past winners who have gone on to be most successful sires include Show A Heart (leading Qld Sire) Darci Brahma, Mossman, etc. Then of course, Press Statement and Pressday are past winners. As is Sizzling, who's now at Stud. There's a few goodies from a shit race, even if a couple of better ones couldn't win it !! I think you need to re-rate your opinion of the Atkins and throw a few stones at this pussy NZG1 wins of the X, you know, the one that beat First Serve and a few other classy types :)

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3 hours ago, Trump said:

Midget, you are talking shit now and must be on the piss. You say the Atkins is a shit race and nothing's come out of it over the last 10 years. I guess Brazen Beau and Zoustar, who couldn't win it, were slugs? Past winners who have gone on to be most successful sires include Show A Heart (leading Qld Sire) Darci Brahma, Mossman, etc. Then of course, Press Statement and Pressday are past winners. As is Sizzling, who's now at Stud. There's a few goodies from a shit race, even if a couple of better ones couldn't win it !! I think you need to re-rate your opinion of the Atkins and throw a few stones at this pussy NZG1 wins of the X, you know, the one that beat First Serve and a few other classy types :)

Touchy huh Trump, I've hit a nerve telling the truth about that back end 2yo mile that hasn't been a form race in the last ten years and shouldn't be a G1 race ( is it under review ? bloody well should be ).

Zoustar was a sprinter who didn't even start racing until April of his 2yo year, and he never won beyond 1400, and he only won at 1400 once anyway. Can't see your point using him as an example of a horse who didn't get a mile and who the trainer didn't think much of at two..

I note you're going back well beyond ten years with your other examples to try to negate my correct observations.

As for Xtravagant, I get your point and over here we tend to agree that he runs hot and cold, but when he's well behaved and not thinking about his dangly bits he's a pretty good horse. You need to ' read ' him in the birdcage and if he's not gawking or bellowing he usually runs a good race. Unfortunately behavioral problems tend to increase with age not diminish so no doubt you'll get gloating rights over the spring.

His 2000 Guineas was a superior performance but you're correct about some of his other wins.

BTW Trump you don't need to keep reminding us Sacred Elixir has huge potential, we think he does too and we all agree the Derby, and maybe the Cox Plate are real, live, and realistic options for him, but this debate is not about what he might do, it's about what he's done.

If he'd won a Slipper or a Sires Produce we wouldn't be having this debate.

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Sacred Elixir caned Souchez in the JJ Atkins.  Souchez won the Pago Pago which has been won by some good horses.  Although Souchez did finish the race heat stressed and suffered colic soon after.

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8 hours ago, Midget said:

How could HV have beaten any group winners in the Diamond ? What races could they've won apart from the Karaka Millions

Wakefield, Eclipse, Taranaki Classic, Matamata Breeders are all group races that are run before the Diamond.  KM is only a listed (sweepstake type) race.

 

8 hours ago, Midget said:

Are you saying HV should've raced against opposition who'd beaten old horses when they were March two year olds ?

Nope just saying the Atkins was a better field than the Diamond.  Can't judge depth of the field by the form of the two runners up alone.  Not that the Diamond runners up were much better.  

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Can't be bothered researching any further but without checking the MM Breeders runner up and Taranaki race winner were both there in the Diamond.

Going round in circles now and I'd prefer to only discuss this with learned people if you don't mind.

All the best.

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Yeah Midgie, good call, that hole is probably deep enough now.......;)

What Sacred Elixir has achieved as a 2 year old  just shows what a quality horse he is.

His pedigree has Melbourne Cup, Japan Cup, BMW and two Derby winners in it. Not hard to see the upside..

Interesting how Timeform rated that Queensland Carnival....

TIMEFORM

Age/Distance Australia Queensland carnival

2yo Extreme Choice 123 Sacred Elixir 115

3yo Exosphere 127 Ghisoni 116

4yo+ Sprint Chautauqua 127 Black Heart Bart 126

4yo+ 1600m+ Winx 128 Our Ivanhowe 123

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No one is doubting SE FFS !!! We all agree he's a potential star. Stop trying to create a convenient diversion by making this about SE's potential.

It's the Free Handicap choice we're debating, and the merit of a shit " back end " mile two year old race at a winter carnival in arguably the third or fourth ranked state in Australian racing, when the horse beat two slugs who'd won a single midweek 17k race between them.

The race is a shit race, it doesn't stack up against the Diamond historically, and history says the horse who won the Diamond was an unbeaten stakes and G1 winner.

I'm not a Te Akau fan, not one ounce, but they've been dudded here.

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57 minutes ago, Midget said:

No one is doubting SE FFS !!! We all agree he's a potential star. Stop trying to create a convenient diversion by making this about SE's potential.

It's the Free Handicap choice we're debating, and the merit of a shit " back end " mile two year old race at a winter carnival in arguably the third or fourth ranked state in Australian racing, when the horse beat two slugs who'd won a single midweek 17k race between them.

The race is a shit race, it doesn't stack up against the Diamond historically, and history says the horse who won the Diamond was an unbeaten stakes and G1 winner.

I'm not a Te Akau fan, not one ounce, but they've been dudded here.

Have to agree to disagree Midg...but that's bollocks.

The horse won a Group 1 in Australia. You cannot penalise the horse by saying the track was off, the opposition was crap, the Carnival second rate etc...he could only beat what was there and he did it on his ear by panels.

HV by the way has won his races by less than a length. Probably irrelevant but it does influence impressions.

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4 hours ago, Ohokaman said:

Have to agree to disagree Midg...but that's bollocks.

The horse won a Group 1 in Australia. You cannot penalise the horse by saying the track was off, the opposition was crap, the Carnival second rate etc...he could only beat what was there and he did it on his ear by panels.

HV by the way has won his races by less than a length. Probably irrelevant but it does influence impressions.

Never mentioned the state of the track, I certainly did mention what he beat though.

The carnival is not strong when compared to the spring or autumn carnivals, the race in question is in winter, in June FFS.

The JJ Atkins is a shite race, just google it over the last ten years and you'll see exactly what I mean.

Meantime HV remains unbeaten, but we all agree SE is probably a much better horse, however the reality is that one horse performed at a higher level than the other, and that is an undisputable fact.

If you want to denigrate all NZ G1 racing I understand, but don't start waffling about the merits of the third level Australian form because it doesn't stand scrutiny.

 

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Just been watching a Aussie interview with a trainer and the word is that NZ horses are up there with the best in Aus.

He did say that nz went threw a 10 year period where not alot happened with nz breds but now its a different story... we have gone back to what we do BEST, breed stayers and middle distance horses.

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28 minutes ago, Midget said:

Never mentioned the state of the track, I certainly did mention what he beat though.

The carnival is not strong when compared to the spring or autumn carnivals, the race in question is in winter, in June FFS.

The JJ Atkins is a shite race, just google it over the last ten years and you'll see exactly what I mean.

Meantime HV remains unbeaten, but we all agree SE is probably a much better horse, however the reality is that one horse performed at a higher level than the other, and that is an undisputable fact.

If you want to denigrate all NZ G1 racing I understand, but don't start waffling about the merits of the third level Australian form because it doesn't stand scrutiny.

 

Doesn't therein lie an important question.  Where does our black type racing rank compared to Australia?  Is it the equivalent of Queensland "winter" racing?

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10 minutes ago, 2Admin2 said:

Doesn't therein lie an important question.  Where does our black type racing rank compared to Australia?  Is it the equivalent of Queensland "winter" racing?

A reasonable point indeed

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20 hours ago, Midget said:

But it's not judged on stakes otherwise the winner of the Karaka Million would top the Free Handicap.

As for the trip, are you now claiming the JJ Atkins has more credibility than the Slipper ?

Probably. It's a Group 1, an Australian Group 1, compared to a Listed race. That's what the records will show anyway.

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2 hours ago, Midget said:

Never mentioned the state of the track, I certainly did mention what he beat though.

The carnival is not strong when compared to the spring or autumn carnivals, the race in question is in winter, in June FFS.

The JJ Atkins is a shite race, just google it over the last ten years and you'll see exactly what I mean.

Meantime HV remains unbeaten, but we all agree SE is probably a much better horse, however the reality is that one horse performed at a higher level than the other, and that is an undisputable fact.

If you want to denigrate all NZ G1 racing I understand, but don't start waffling about the merits of the third level Australian form because it doesn't stand scrutiny.

 

You mentioned the time being slow, so a reference there.

"denigrate all NZ G1 Racing..?" Drawing a long bow there Midge..

I just don't agree that "one horse performed at a higher level than the other" - if it had this whole conversation would be irrelevant. Interesting that Te Akau didn't take him to Australia with Xtravagant....could be many reasons... Not ready mentally or physically, needed a spell, wanted to keep his record intact ( being a colt ), better as a three year old, not good enough....who knows...?

What we do know is Tony Pike took the punt on his bloke, and reaped the rewards. End of story...

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I mentioned that they ran three miles on the day, and his time was a second slower than one, and one point seven seconds ( 11 1/2 lengths ) slower than the other.

How does that relate to the state of the track ??

HV was unbeaten, he won a summer G 1 1200 race against the best around at the time......not good enough for you though....now you want him to perform in Australia to head his own Free Handicap........what in, The Slipper ?, The Diamond ?, or a winter 1600m race ?

So now you're arguing that any winter G1 two year old race over an extreme trip for that age group is better than a summer G1 race in NZ...just because it's in Australia.....how delightfully gullible you are.

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2 minutes ago, Midget said:

I mentioned that they ran three miles on the day, and his time was a second slower than one, and one point seven seconds ( 11 1/2 lengths ) slower than the other.

How does that relate to the state of the track ??

HV was unbeaten, he won a summer G 1 1200 race against the best around at the time......not good enough for you though....now you want him to perform in Australia to head his own Free Handicap........what in, The Slipper ?, The Diamond ?, or a winter 1600m race ?

So now you're arguing that any winter G1 two year old race over an extreme trip for that age group is better than a summer G1 race in NZ...just because it's in Australia.....how delightfully gullible you are.

FFS Midget....let it go. Who was top of the 2 year old handicap again...???

They were correct. End of.....

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You're the one deserately misquoting me about slow tracks, and you're the one who clearly doesn't know what constitutes a good race and what's an ordinary race.

Go google the Atkins winners of the last ten years and post their names here for a laugh.

 

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Yep and go back at look at the Diamond (or whatever it was called previously) winners for the past 10 years.  Very few of them went on to win another Group 1 race and Alamosa the only one among them to really amount to something.  Anabandana also a nice filly but the rest are hardly a who's who of NZ racing (Kaaptan, Banchee, Warhorse, ..........)

but hey these are just the views of an unlearned one, so looking forward to further enlightenment - and don't let the facts get in the way of a good "I'm smarter than you" argument

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The Atkins has proved to be a good race for many years. The beaten brigade have gone on and the winners list over the years has been pretty good. Nobody will rate HV on his wins in NZ. The real proving ground is Oz. 

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The last ten years....rubbish....

As for really starting to annoy you, what, for telling the truth ?

I'm starting to think you had a share in Darci Brahma or something that won or placed in the race, your ability to see the race for what it really is seems badly compromised, or maybe you have an interest in Sacred Elixir, and if you have lucky you, he'll win plenty more races, and looks a natural fit for the VRC Derby, and as it happens that's another slightly dubious race, but for different reasons.

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