TAB Bookies taking the piss????

[Basil 333]

On 2/08/2016 at 9:28 PM, Brodie said:

You should be in awe then Basil, and dip your lid.

The reality is though Basil, with the TAB offering lower and lower odds, what they are effectively doing is costing themselves bigger turnover and profit.

They are "cutting off their noses to spite their face" if you can understand that.

Punters I know that bet fixed solely are now looking at the odds when they open and are saying bugger it, nothing worth backing.

Not sure how the execs can not see this??

In any gambling business their will always be punters that make money but many more that lose.

TAB are saying we don't want anyone making money, we only want the losing punters, but that will be costing them big time.

I'm sorry, but this is precisely the sort of fantasy-economics I was referring to.

1.  Greater turnover is not the same thing as bigger profit.

2.  Eliminating loss-making customers does not cost a business money (unless the laws of arithmetic have been repealed), but retaining them certainly does. This is why casinos take a dim view of card-counters.

3.  Your main argument seems to be that encouraging punters such as yourself to bet and win will entice other losing punters to bet more. Even if true---and it sounds more like a self-serving delusion than an evidence-backed claim---it will cost the TAB money unless the increased profits from the mugs outweigh the increased losses to you (again, unless the laws of arithmetic have been repealed).

4.  The reason "the execs can not see this" is (hopefully) because they have seen the detailed statistics and know something about the elasticity of betting demand, rather than relying on self-interested anecdote.

  

 

[stackedbluechip 29]

52 minutes ago, Brodie said:

Definitely "taking the piss"

Have a look at the odds offered at Oamaru this morning!

There is not one horse offered that is any value at all.

Cant believe that they can all be so short and not worth the hassle.

Is everyone else finding the same thing?

at the odds currently being dished out early all you are doing is buying money with them be so Flippen short!!!!!!

Come on Bookies give the NZ punters a fair go!

I actually have to agree with you on this one Brodie.

The only way to beat them now is to cut your betting activity and waiting for the value that pops up once in every 3 or 4 weeks for a horse that few people have spotted. You've got to outstay the TAB with discipline. To call them "bookmakers" these days is ridiculous. They couldn't set a true market if it hit them in the face.

[richie 1,027]

1 hour ago, Brodie said:

Definitely "taking the piss"

Have a look at the odds offered at Oamaru this morning!

There is not one horse offered that is any value at all.

Cant believe that they can all be so short and not worth the hassle.

Is everyone else finding the same thing?

at the odds currently being dished out early all you are doing is buying money with them be so Flippen short!!!!!!

Come on Bookies give the NZ punters a fair go!

I think they giving overs on Sandra Keith in race 2.Is at $101 fixed thought it should be only $99.lol

[richie 1,027]

They do the same in the gallops.I took a place multi yesterday for a syndicate bet and every horse ended up paying much more on the tote.Some were at least 50% difference.One race with 8 starters had 6 paying under $2.10 on fi

xed and 4 were paying under $1.50.Only took multi and not fixed odds because i thought if they all come in last leg be paying $1.

 

[lecithin 429]

20 minutes ago, Basil said:

I'm sorry, but this is precisely the sort of fantasy-economics I was referring to.

1.  Greater turnover is not the same thing as bigger profit.

2.  Eliminating loss-making customers does not cost a business money (unless the laws of arithmetic have been repealed), but retaining them certainly does. This is why casinos take a dim view of card-counters.

3.  Your main argument seems to be that encouraging punters such as yourself to bet and win will entice other losing punters to bet more. Even if true---and it sounds more like a self-serving delusion than an evidence-backed claim---it will cost the TAB money unless the increased profits from the mugs outweigh the increased losses to you (again, unless the laws of arithmetic have been repealed).

4.  The reason "the execs can not see this" is (hopefully) because they have seen the detailed statistics and know something about the elasticity of betting demand, rather than relying on self-interested anecdote.

  

 

Basil, I'm not sure it's actually as clear cut as this.  Sure I'd agree that if there is a punter that is winning huge amounts on a regular basis that customer needs to be managed, but what the TAB have progressively done is cut off customers that make even modest profits over the long term and despite your reasons I don't think this is good for the industry.  It needs to be remembered that the NZRB have a monopoly on sports and racing betting in New Zealand and also a responsibility to promote and grow the industry and this, in my opinion, means they shouldn't be acting like the UK bookies that will cut off customers the minute they think they might be a winning punter.

While I don't want to go into the specific details of my situation, I was banned by them from all fixed odds betting for "commercial reasons" around 3 years ago for winning on average probably around $10k per annum over a period of maybe 5 years.  Hardly a big time winner, but certainly in the minority and probably in the top 1% of punters in terms of profitability.  So they banned me and are probably thinking that has improved their bottom line by $30k, but what about the cost?

Three years ago I had shares in up to 10 horses racing in NZ - I've now fairly well lost interest in that and currently have a share in 1 racing horse.  Three years ago I would visit the track almost weekly, often going with a group of friends who were losing punters and who would boost turnover and earn the club a decent amount through food and drink purchases, now I go a few times a year.  I used to travel to NZ Cup week in Christchurch most years spending, a decent amount of money down there - now my annual racing trip is to Melbourne for their Cup week.  99% of my betting is now done on NSW racing - I have 5 Australian bookmaker accounts that abide by the minimum bet rules so I have no trouble backing any horse to win at least $10k with these bookmakers and obviously there is plenty of liquidity on Betfair where I can get set for a whole lot more if I wanted to.

So when you weigh all that up, do you really think the overall racing industry is $30k better off due to them banning me?

[Guest]

1 hour ago, Basil said:

I'm sorry, but this is precisely the sort of fantasy-economics I was referring to.

1.  Greater turnover is not the same thing as bigger profit.

2.  Eliminating loss-making customers does not cost a business money (unless the laws of arithmetic have been repealed), but retaining them certainly does. This is why casinos take a dim view of card-counters.

3.  Your main argument seems to be that encouraging punters such as yourself to bet and win will entice other losing punters to bet more. Even if true---and it sounds more like a self-serving delusion than an evidence-backed claim---it will cost the TAB money unless the increased profits from the mugs outweigh the increased losses to you (again, unless the laws of arithmetic have been repealed).

4.  The reason "the execs can not see this" is (hopefully) because they have seen the detailed statistics and know something about the elasticity of betting demand, rather than relying on self-interested anecdote.

  

 

Basil, I don't believe you know what you are talking about!

Business is obviously about making money isn't it?

The TAB are saying that their yield is up over the last year on harness racing?

Well done to the bookies that are setting the harness odds by making them a lot lower than they should be so that the punters that do collect don't get paid out as much!

Totally false economy in my opinion and I have obviously stated this many times on here.

A yield of 6 per cent on a million dollars is more profit than a yield of 11 per cent on $500,000 I would have thought.

All I know is that everyone I know that bet fixed odds agree with me and are finding the odds ridiculously low now and are set at under fair and reasonable odds.

What is going to happen is that the punters will not bother or will bet offshore?

Obviously, there are punters who know what they are doing and are likely to win and the TAB will lose money to them, but they are heavily restricted already as to what they can win.

What the TAB in their wisdom and it is totally false wisdom is that they are also restricting the turnover substantially and therefore profit to themselves and the industry.

This is turning off the punters as and also leads into disenchantment of the industry as a whole.

The bookies that are setting the odds may think they are being clever and they are getting paid very well for it at the moment.

Their naivety will have consequences in the future.

Would be interesting if the TAB could reply and advise us what the turnover on the harness fixed odds is each race.

They already stopped the head to heads because they say lack of support.

Dah, they brought the odds out a few minutes before each race!!!!!!

 

[SMD is rife 211]

8 hours ago, lecithin said:

Basil, I'm not sure it's actually as clear cut as this.  Sure I'd agree that if there is a punter that is winning huge amounts on a regular basis that customer needs to be managed, but what the TAB have progressively done is cut off customers that make even modest profits over the long term and despite your reasons I don't think this is good for the industry.  It needs to be remembered that the NZRB have a monopoly on sports and racing betting in New Zealand and also a responsibility to promote and grow the industry and this, in my opinion, means they shouldn't be acting like the UK bookies that will cut off customers the minute they think they might be a winning punter.

While I don't want to go into the specific details of my situation, I was banned by them from all fixed odds betting for "commercial reasons" around 3 years ago for winning on average probably around $10k per annum over a period of maybe 5 years.  Hardly a big time winner, but certainly in the minority and probably in the top 1% of punters in terms of profitability.  So they banned me and are probably thinking that has improved their bottom line by $30k, but what about the cost?

Three years ago I had shares in up to 10 horses racing in NZ - I've now fairly well lost interest in that and currently have a share in 1 racing horse.  Three years ago I would visit the track almost weekly, often going with a group of friends who were losing punters and who would boost turnover and earn the club a decent amount through food and drink purchases, now I go a few times a year.  I used to travel to NZ Cup week in Christchurch most years spending, a decent amount of money down there - now my annual racing trip is to Melbourne for their Cup week.  99% of my betting is now done on NSW racing - I have 5 Australian bookmaker accounts that abide by the minimum bet rules so I have no trouble backing any horse to win at least $10k with these bookmakers and obviously there is plenty of liquidity on Betfair where I can get set for a whole lot more if I wanted to.

So when you weigh all that up, do you really think the overall racing industry is $30k better off due to them banning me?

Do you think the head of TAB fixed odds operations really cares about the industry as a whole or does he only care about his annual bonus which depends on banning winning punters?

[Guest]

1 hour ago, SMD is rife said:

Do you think the head of TAB fixed odds operations really cares about the industry as a whole or does he only care about his annual bonus which depends on banning winning punters?

No he probably doesn't care, but if the betting turnover drops for both tote and fixed there will be questions asked.

I am aware that the TABs rules say that they don't have to accept any bet etc. but if it was taken to court I believe they would not be allowed to restrict winning punters as surely it is a breach in that all punters are not being treated equally.

[SMD is rife 211]

10 hours ago, lecithin said:

5 minutes ago, Brodie said:

No he probably doesn't care, but if the betting turnover drops for both tote and fixed there will be questions asked.

I am aware that the TABs rules say that they don't have to accept any bet etc. but if it was taken to court I believe they would not be allowed to restrict winning punters as surely it is a breach in that all punters are not being treated equally.

Brodie, for someone who talks a big game as a punter you really have a poor understanding of the mechanics of betting.

If Fixed Odds betting (turnover) on harness fell from $30m to $27m in a season but the yield rose from 10% to 12% they would be happy and crowing about it.  

 

[Guest]

12 minutes ago, SMD is rife said:

 

12 minutes ago, SMD is rife said:

 

SMD. the point I was making that if punters get the stitch with the poor tote divs being paid and the poor fixed odds being offered then turnover will drop.

This in turn obviously drops profit doesn't it!

 

[SMD is rife 211]

"the poor tote dividends"....FFS....you really don't get it do you. The tote divvies haven't changed in years. 

[Guest]

23 minutes ago, SMD is rife said:

"the poor tote dividends"....FFS....you really don't get it do you. The tote divvies haven't changed in years. 

Your name suits you,

What don't I get?

So you are saying tote divs have always been as short as they are now!

 

 

[SMD is rife 211]

Ever since the current takeout rates have been in force, yes. Go on and startle us with your brilliance and show us we are wrong.....

[scooby3051 10,915]

Stop the personal shit..OK... healthy debate does not need to be personal.

[Diver Dan 187]

On 7/08/2016 at 10:14 AM, richie said:

They do the same in the gallops.I took a place multi yesterday for a syndicate bet and every horse ended up paying much more on the tote.Some were at least 50% difference.One race with 8 starters had 6 paying under $2.10 on fi

xed and 4 were paying under $1.50.Only took multi and not fixed odds because i thought if they all come in last leg be paying $1.

 

You'll most likely find it better(bigger payout) to put it on the tote and drop the last selection - get a better collect and not have to sit on an all-up which has no upside in the last but can only "massage your prostate"

[Tlw 2]

On 7/08/2016 at 9:04 AM, Brodie said:

Definitely "taking the piss"

Have a look at the odds offered at Oamaru this morning!

There is not one horse offered that is any value at all.

Cant believe that they can all be so short and not worth the hassle.

Is everyone else finding the same thing?

at the odds currently being dished out early all you are doing is buying money with them be so Flippen short!!!!!!

Come on Bookies give the NZ punters a fair go!

race1 pretoruis  tote 4.30   ff 4.60     value on  ff

race2 ag white socks tote 6.70 ff  7.50   value on ff

race3 nicaea franco  tote 4.40 ff  4.20  value on tote

race4 casino king tote 6.00  ff 6.00   equal

race5 hopeful harriet tote 8.00  ff 7.00  value on tote

race6  my amour tote 3.00  ff  3.20  value on ff

race 7 bettor but it tote 2.20  ff 2.20  equal

race8  stunnin dude tote 4.00   ff 4.00 equal

race9  arranchief tote 8.00  ff 7.50  value tote

 

so  out of 9 races   the tote matched  ff  3 times. More value on the tote 3 times. more value on ff 3 times.

Seems like they  are being  very  fair  to  me

 

[Guest]

1 hour ago, Tlw said:

race1 pretoruis  tote 4.30   ff 4.60     value on  ff

race2 ag white socks tote 6.70 ff  7.50   value on ff

race3 nicaea franco  tote 4.40 ff  4.20  value on tote

race4 casino king tote 6.00  ff 6.00   equal

race5 hopeful harriet tote 8.00  ff 7.00  value on tote

race6  my amour tote 3.00  ff  3.20  value on ff

race 7 bettor but it tote 2.20  ff 2.20  equal

race8  stunnin dude tote 4.00   ff 4.00 equal

race9  arranchief tote 8.00  ff 7.50  value tote

 

so  out of 9 races   the tote matched  ff  3 times. More value on the tote 3 times. more value on ff 3 times.

Seems like they  are being  very  fair  to  me

 

Clearly you work for the TAB which is great.

Firstly, the odds you have quoted will be the odds you have quoted after the betting has closed.

The final field odds are mostly closed off reflecting what the tote odds are, and that is how you are able to quote your figures above, so no rocket science there.

Odds are always amended at the last moment by the Bookies and most of the time and even after the race has started, you can't get on as it it is too late.

Secondly, these win odds are not the ones being offered to punters for most of the day.

Your odds are opened up nowadays far too short to have many punters enticed to have a go.

I believe the win odds are opened at about 139 per cent and the place are over the 400 per cent and as high as 450 per cent which is ridiculous if you expect much money to go on.

There is very little amendment to the odds upwards all day until not long before a race, except if a restricted punter has a bet the odds are reduced substantially so that not worth having another investment and stuffs kdds for other punters.

I Appreciate that you are in the business to make money, but everyone I speak to agrees that the harness odds have become far too short and not worth the effort.

You may be restricting some from winning but you are also putting many others off and they are your future punters, and doubt that you can afford to do that.

When you open up odds on harness that have 5 horses at least under $2 for a place fixed then you aren't going to entice punters to have a go, as not many want to just buy money.

Yesterday from the winners you have quoted the biggest FF win div offered was $8.

You are continually putting the serious punters off with the unreasonably short odds you are offering and maybe that is what your directive is, but i firmly believe is to the detriment of harness racing.

 

 

 

 

[SMD is rife 211]

and what about the tote divvies Brodie, have you figured out that mystery yet?

[Guest]

1 hour ago, SMD is rife said:

and what about the tote divvies Brodie, have you figured out that mystery yet?

SMD, I have got no idea what you are on about sorry!

My point was that I consider so many tote divs paid out are sso short not worth investing on the tote and the fixed odds have got short as well, and I consider the TAB will lose punters 

So I've got no idea what this mystery thing is you are on about?

 

[SMD is rife 211]

your point was the divvies on the tote were poor and worse than in years gone by....and that this was the TABs fault....do you stand by this?

[Guest]

21 minutes ago, SMD is rife said:

your point was the divvies on the tote were poor and worse than in years gone by....and that this was the TABs fault....do you stand by this?

Yes I firmly believe that there are a hell of a lot more races that have place divs where they are all under $2 whether it is 2 or 3 div races than there used to be.

This includes Australian harness racing as well as NZ, therefore can't understand why punters bother on the tote for these races.

 

[Toblerone 242]

Addington Friday night all ten tote markets closed between 119.2 (Race 8) and 123.9 (Race 3).

How long has the tote takeover rate been this high? Book closing at about 122 on most races when it should be closing at 118.

[Tlw 2]

18 hours ago, Brodie said:

Clearly you work for the TAB which is great.

Firstly, the odds you have quoted will be the odds you have quoted after the betting has closed.

The final field odds are mostly closed off reflecting what the tote odds are, and that is how you are able to quote your figures above, so no rocket science there.

Odds are always amended at the last moment by the Bookies and most of the time and even after the race has started, you can't get on as it it is too late.

Secondly, these win odds are not the ones being offered to punters for most of the day.

Your odds are opened up nowadays far too short to have many punters enticed to have a go.

I believe the win odds are opened at about 139 per cent and the place are over the 400 per cent and as high as 450 per cent which is ridiculous if you expect much money to go on.

There is very little amendment to the odds upwards all day until not long before a race, except if a restricted punter has a bet the odds are reduced substantially so that not worth having another investment and stuffs kdds for other punters.

I Appreciate that you are in the business to make money, but everyone I speak to agrees that the harness odds have become far too short and not worth the effort.

You may be restricting some from winning but you are also putting many others off and they are your future punters, and doubt that you can afford to do that.

When you open up odds on harness that have 5 horses at least under $2 for a place fixed then you aren't going to entice punters to have a go, as not many want to just buy money.

Yesterday from the winners you have quoted the biggest FF win div offered was $8.

You are continually putting the serious punters off with the unreasonably short odds you are offering and maybe that is what your directive is, but i firmly believe is to the detriment of harness racing.

 

 

 

 

Firstly. i am NOT an employee of the TAB.

Of course the odds i  stated are the closing odds. I dont sit infron  of the  computer from  the minute they  open the odds up  and  note every  change they make. If  you want to, then  go  ahead.

Of course the closing odds are the ones that are offered for most of the. Infact you  answered  your own  question when you said theopening market is around 139% and closes  around  120%. If you dont want to  to bet into a 139% market , wait till they  have to move the odds out to bring the % down. Using your  words..... Not rocket science.

[tonkatime 323]

14 hours ago, Brodie said:

My point was that I consider so many tote divs paid out are sso short not worth investing on the tote and the fixed odds have got short as well, and I consider the TAB will lose punters 

  Why are you worried about Tote dividends when you never bet on the tote? 

[MisterEd 332]

1 hour ago, Toblerone said:

Addington Friday night all ten tote markets closed between 119.2 (Race 8) and 123.9 (Race 3).

How long has the tote takeover rate been this high? Book closing at about 122 on most races when it should be closing at 118.

I think the variation has been worse since commingling started and I would suspect the dinosaur of a jetbet system the NZ TAB uses contributes to the discrepancies. There has been some talk of the NZ TAB piggy backing on the Tabcorp model in future but whether anything comes of it who knows.