Forty

Inbreeding to Danehill

50 posts in this topic

9 hours ago, Louise said:

Don't Tell Mama 3 X 4 Danehill but also carries 4 X 5 Nijinsky II and has Denise's Joy as 4th Dam. 

To clarify to readers the 3 X 4 to Danehill is through a son and daughters.

Don't Doubt Mama is by Not A Single Doubt out of a Fantastic Light mare.

This is not a Danehill line stallion over a Danehill line mare.

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When will you guys get it....historically there is very little predictability in breeding horses based on pedigree. A correlation of 3-5. percent is statistically not acceptable. There have been sqillions of "experts" with pedigree programmes that have tried and tried but statistically failed. It's all about the ballance of the knowledge of the family. Pedigree is the matching of these traits in order to attempt the predictability of the resultant off spring. Type plays a huge part, but if you talk with Rimot and co, their main quest in the end centres around temperament. This may be why many of the major studs have generations of the sire line and why some of the major studs somehow can't or don't breed stallions.

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On 13 September 2016 at 6:29 AM, Berri said:

When will you guys get it....historically there is very little predictability in breeding horses based on pedigree. A correlation of 3-5. percent is statistically not acceptable. There have been sqillions of "experts" with pedigree programmes that have tried and tried but statistically failed. It's all about the ballance of the knowledge of the family. Pedigree is the matching of these traits in order to attempt the predictability of the resultant off spring. Type plays a huge part, but if you talk with Rimot and co, their main quest in the end centres around temperament. This may be why many of the major studs have generations of the sire line and why some of the major studs somehow can't or don't breed stallions.

Very interesting point Berri. 

My post in this thread are claims that inbreeding to Danehill has not worked. However one must remember that the mighty Danehill is 3x3 sex balanced cross to Natalma, the dam of the mighty Northern Dancer.

Shall search some statistics as a simple example of what Danehill lines stallions have done with Danehill line mare then show what those Danehill mares have done with other lines. I want to see how you explain the statistics.

I would like you to expand on type and more importantly temperament.

My opinion is the race horse ability in a stallion is the most important.

Australian ( am only talking Sydney and Melbourne) Group One form as 3yo and upwards works super well in NZ.

European form while it can be very good can be hit and miss and the form sometimes is not what it seems.

American stallions seem to be the less likely to succeed given they are dirt horses or possibly the possible drug issues.

Look at the recent stallion success and failures.

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Sir Tristram had speed. His program simply didn't allow it to be show cased. He had a turn of foot which is speed. Remember he produced a Golden slipper winner in Marauding. When looking at Ebony Grove, Grosvenor and Sir Tristram, there are traits in type but differences in temperament. I part owned a couple of Grovenors (Constitution Hill and Heavenly Body)...one was  potentially a great stayer who turned into a good hurdler, the other won the South Australian Oaks. This difference between the two was temperament.

Danzatore had the breeding but lacked the temperament. Sovereign Edition was a champion stallion who produced good fillies (Beau Sovereign was a colt), ate people, and was by Grey Sovereign who had the dreaded SS next to his name....once again temperament.

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Sired by Danehill and his sons and grandsons with mares by Danehill and his sons and grandsons

SW to foal of racing age   0.4%

 

Sired by Danehill and his sons and grandsons with other mares (Non Danehill etc)

SW to foal of racing age    2.5%

 

Mares by Danehill and his sons and grandsons with other sires ( Non Danehill etc)

SW to foal of racing age    2.4%

 

In summary when comparing foals of racing age if you have a mare by Danehill and his sons and grandsons you can improve your chances of a SW with foals of racing age by 600% (Six times more chances) by sending the mare to a non Danehill sire line stallion.

Statistics available by entering a mare on Truenicks website.

I am using foals of racing age as the best comparison because it was interesting on the lower percentage of horses sired by Danehill and his sons and grandsons with mares by Danehill and his sons and grandsons made it to the races as starters. This indicates they were not good enough or in fact they had had conformation issues which prevented them from racing.

In regard to other patterns in a pedigree, that is different to what I have stated above such as sex balanced crosses.

At the present moment if you have a mare by Danehill and his sons and grandsons you are best to send her to anything but a Danehill line stallion.

In regard to temperament and turn of foot I will start a new post.

Berri raises some very important points here.

 

 

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On 14 September 2016 at 11:21 PM, Nasrullah said:

..,European form while it can be very good can be hit and miss and the form sometimes is not what it seems.

 

Eg Some of those Irish 2000 Guineas can be very soft.

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I have booked my mare to Shocking this season and am interested to see the pedigree earlier of Rodmar, who replicates my mare's Danehill cross exactly, notwithstanding my mare is by Keeper and not Redoutes Choice. I shall watch Rodmar's progress with increased interest from now on.

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On 9/17/2016 at 11:36 PM, Berri said:

Sir Tristram had speed. His program simply didn't allow it to be show cased. He had a turn of foot which is speed. Remember he produced a Golden slipper winner in Marauding. When looking at Ebony Grove, Grosvenor and Sir Tristram, there are traits in type but differences in temperament. I part owned a couple of Grovenors (Constitution Hill and Heavenly Body)...one was  potentially a great stayer who turned into a good hurdler, the other won the South Australian Oaks. This difference between the two was temperament.

Danzatore had the breeding but lacked the temperament. Sovereign Edition was a champion stallion who produced good fillies (Beau Sovereign was a colt), ate people, and was by Grey Sovereign who had the dreaded SS next to his name....once again temperament.

The Danzatore's were Loonies Berri, his fillies especially!........but they could run.

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On 18/09/2016 at 7:42 PM, Nasrullah said:

Sired by Danehill and his sons and grandsons with mares by Danehill and his sons and grandsons

SW to foal of racing age   0.4%

 

Sired by Danehill and his sons and grandsons with other mares (Non Danehill etc)

SW to foal of racing age    2.5%

 

Mares by Danehill and his sons and grandsons with other sires ( Non Danehill etc)

SW to foal of racing age    2.4%

 

In summary when comparing foals of racing age if you have a mare by Danehill and his sons and grandsons you can improve your chances of a SW with foals of racing age by 600% (Six times more chances) by sending the mare to a non Danehill sire line stallion.

Statistics available by entering a mare on Truenicks website.

I am using foals of racing age as the best comparison because it was interesting on the lower percentage of horses sired by Danehill and his sons and grandsons with mares by Danehill and his sons and grandsons made it to the races as starters. This indicates they were not good enough or in fact they had had conformation issues which prevented them from racing.

In regard to other patterns in a pedigree, that is different to what I have stated above such as sex balanced crosses.

At the present moment if you have a mare by Danehill and his sons and grandsons you are best to send her to anything but a Danehill line stallion.

In regard to temperament and turn of foot I will start a new post.

Berri raises some very important points here.

 

 

"Simple" statistics is right. Meaningless.

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On 9/10/2016 at 8:55 AM, Nasrullah said:

Well pointed out Mattski.

Sound Proposition for those of you who cannot read above is by Savabeel.

Sound Proposition is out of an Ebony Grosve mare. Ebony Grosve is by Grosvenor. Grosvenor is by Sir Tristram.

As pointed in the statistics Danzig over Danzig or Danehill over Danehill has had poor results.

My main point is that breeding similar types of Danehill sire lines that are heavy and well muscled over other Danehill lines broodmares that are heavy and well muscled does not work.

Breeding an athletic horse that is balanced has worked.

Not all lines of Northern Dancer are the same on type. Danzig and Danehill were very different types to Sadlers Wells and Galileo.

Savabeel and say Lonhro are quite different to Sir Tristram. They had much more speed.

Perhaps that is why the Sound Proposition mating has worked.

 

 

I have the Tavistock 1/2 sister at home for the owners... loverly type and very typical Tavistock... and ebony babe is returning to savabeel.

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With the mating of Sound Proposition my analysis of why it has worked is exactly the same as with inbreeding to Danehill,   its what is 'on the male line' of the rest of the dams in the mares lower in the pedigree and how they fit with the stallion.

Deciding if something works or dosen't work based on one single duplication in a pedigree is to my mind rediculous.

 

 59e04356b1f38_soundproposition.thumb.png.96167ef684d1860bb6cf72dcffd226ca.png

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Seriously, I get so very frustrated at the Danehill idol.

Like breeding machinery Danehill swept acoss the breed, and particularly Australasia  to serve speed purpose which is now backsliding upon the mass average.  (no fact here, only opinion!)

by quoting..."nothing is easier than to improve a breed; to, say, increase the average milk yield of a moderate herd by using proved sires of higher yield; but if you ever read a position where you have nothing better to use for improvement, retrogression is the rule. Having improved the special traits of the racehorse by stringent selection to the limit of speed, the tendency to retrogression is sometimes so great that our utmost efforts may do no more then prevent further retrogression. In other words, selection no longer causes progress.    Peter Burrell, then direction of the English National stud - Principles of Thoroughbred Breeding.

This is/has happened now....

Swynford and Berri putting folks in right direction.

aside from the Danehill issue am attempting to put commentary on the big,wide subject.  https://thethoroughbredlink.com/2018/08/20/mating-for-superiority/

 

 

 

 

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