RaceCafe..#1...Tipsters Thread.... Share Your Fancies For Fun...Lets See Who The Best Tipsters Here Are.
Eagle Eye

Group1 NZ Oaks

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:Dthanks so much for all the crap box draws you give my dogs in group1 races lol talk about sh.t luck always who does them are they recorded for evidence ? This is something that should be addressed in NZGRA either they are drawn out of a hat by connections at the end of heats or semi night or shown or recorded when drawn for public viewing ! Well I hope she jumps lol good luck to all cheers 

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I am not sure if you are implying something here, Who Knows.

We have been down this road many a time and I remember personally bringing the issue of these box draws to the attention of the Assn a few years ago now. 

Anyway, I ran the explanation I received past some people who are good at this sort of thing and I was assured absolutely that the randomness of the system was just that - random.

More recently, the On Track magazine of November 2013 has a comprehensive explanation of the process.

 

 

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2 hours ago, WhoKnows said:

Kava Blu is a very lucky dog when it comes to big races.

Auckland Cup bx#1

NZ Derby bx#1

Dunedin Cup bx#1

and incidentally has bx#1 again his week.

Who's the trainer lol that's the issue here it's blatantly obvious something is a miss and if it's not let us all see the computer that generates the box draws blue print on how many times the button has been pushed. There are no accusations here other than be transperant any so we all can say that's racing not have doubts because I have a lot of doubts as the records indicate they need to be questioned and they need to prove all is true so things can never be questioned? I say this without prejudice. Cheers

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17 minutes ago, Jape said:

I am not sure if you are implying something here, Who Knows.

We have been down this road many a time and I remember personally bringing the issue of these box draws to the attention of the Assn a few years ago now. 

Anyway, I ran the explanation I received past some people who are good at this sort of thing and I was assured absolutely that the randomness of the system was just that - random.

More recently, the On Track magazine of November 2013 has a comprehensive explanation of the process.

 

 

They need to prove that the button was not pressed more than once. Not to much to ask if they don't want to show this you can only ever question there integrity. If they show this we can all accept things are above board, not a lot to ask? 

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Eagle Eye...

As a result of previous concern over this matter, it is my understanding that an audit trail. tracking the number of times the draw button was activated in relation to a particular race, was installed. The result from the audit trail was to be made available to the Racing Manager. Therefore, the number of times the button was pushed to establish the draw of a particular race should be readily available.

All the best.

Ashoka

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1 hour ago, Ashoka said:

Eagle Eye...

As a result of previous concern over this matter, it is my understanding that an audit trail. tracking the number of times the draw button was activated in relation to a particular race, was installed. The result from the audit trail was to be made available to the Racing Manager. Therefore, the number of times the button was pushed to establish the draw of a particular race should be readily available.

All the best.

Ashoka

That's excellent if that is so cheers

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1 hour ago, Ashoka said:

Eagle Eye...

As a result of previous concern over this matter, it is my understanding that an audit trail. tracking the number of times the draw button was activated in relation to a particular race, was installed. The result from the audit trail was to be made available to the Racing Manager. Therefore, the number of times the button was pushed to establish the draw of a particular race should be readily available.

All the best.

Ashoka

So what your saying is sh.t luck in group1 finals we have lol I'm going to ask for a copy cheers

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It's an interesting (albeit frustrating) application of statistics.

If you did four draws in a row, the chance of a dog getting box 1 would be tiny - a fraction of 1%.

However, each draw is a discrete random event so the change of a dog drawing box 1 the NEXT draw is still the same - 12.5% regardless of what has happened in the past.

It's literally the luck of the draw.

 

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Dazzer...

You have missed the salient point here completely. Anybody with a working brain is aware of the statistical probabilities. The issue is...are races being redrawn until a desired result is achieved?

Further questions that arise include the following:

Has anybody been checking the audit trail? What results has the audit trail produced?

All the best.

Ashoka

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Not at all Ashoka.  I'm simply pointing out that there is no statistical reason why I dog can't get drawn 1 or 5 multiple times.  Each draw has exactly the same probability.  That is fact.

On the other hand, I'm not sure what evidence you have to say that races are being redrawn.  That is a serious allegation and I'd prefer to have some evidence to make such a bold statement

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8 minutes ago, Dazzer said:

Not at all Ashoka.  I'm simply pointing out that there is no statistical reason why I dog can't get drawn 1 or 5 multiple times.  Each draw has exactly the same probability.  That is fact.

On the other hand, I'm not sure what evidence you have to say that races are being redrawn.  That is a serious allegation and I'd prefer to have some evidence to make such a bold statement

The probability is low that a trainer has drawn box1 more often than not over the years, so asking for proof of the procedure is followed is not to much to ask? It puts sleeping giants to bed and makes all relaxed cheers

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21 hours ago, Sairy said:

I don't think box 5 is such a bad box the way that field has drawn, you should get some clean running air from there

On all races over 520m since Jan 2011, box 5 is clearly the third "winningest" to use the awful American phrase.  In order top three by wins are Box 1 (16.7%), box 2 (14.3%) and then box 5 (13.3%).  IMO, the bigger issue is whether your dog will have the box speed to get into a winning position.

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Dazzer...

The statistical evidence you have provided is known to anybody with a working brain, as I previously stated.

You don't know the history surrounding this subject which is why you should refrain from posting your ignorance and simply confusing what is absolutely simple.

There were allegations some years ago about the rigging of box draws. As a result of an investigation, the audit trail I have referred to was to be established. Whether or not that actally happened, I do not know. I also don't know if the Racing Manager has been monitoring the number of times any particular race has been drawn.

The issue that "Eagle Eye" has raised is pertinent to the integrity of the greyhound racing industry and, therefore, the racing industry as it is currently structured.

The salient issue here is not statistical probability...it is whether or not what was supposed to have been done has, in fact, been done. Further questions result from the answer to this question.

All the best.

Ashoka

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ashoka not sure but years ago in melb you could ask to attend box draw if people on here think that they are being altered why not not just ask the board if you can attend box draw all the theories re being redrawn are far fetched lets say you want a dog to draw box one how many times do you think they might have to redraw

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gary1...

These days, box draws are done by computer...there is nothing to watch.

The allegations regarding the rigging of box draws were very serious and involved a filial relationship. Having had professional dealings with one of the people involved in the allegations, there is no doubt in my mind that the probability of the allegations being entirely justified is very high indeed.

The "theories" regarding the manipulation of the box draws were anything but far-fetched. The instigation of an audit trail with the results going to the Racing Manager was a direct result of the said investigation. Whether or not the promised checks on the number of times any particular draw has been done, have actually occurred remains a moot point. Hence the relevance of the question that "Eagle Eye" wants answered.

The time interval between the push of the draw button and the resulted draw is very small indeed. How many times can a button be pushed in just one minute? There was, and seemingly is, ample time available to push the button hundreds of times.

All the best.

Ashoka

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