Are hot pots good for harness racing?

[Alphonse-Gabriel 101]

I see Brodie and others often expressing their displeasure at hot favs winning,especially All Stars hot favs.

I'm confused by this. My logic says if a winner is so predictable then surely you should be able to find a way to win money off it?  

If I see an All Star paying $1.50 for example in a big race,I will just put $500 - $1000 on rather than $100. If I couldn't afford that I would go after exotic bets. If I couldn't find a way to make a dollar I would question my own mathematics or if I wasn't being flexible enough with my bet types. If the horse is paying $1.10 I will either put a place bet on the second best horse or take exotics with the second best horse running second. There is of course another option. Don't bet on the race. Just sit back and enjoy it for what it is. Complaining or being unhappy because the winner was so short makes no sense to me. 

Every week we have race meetings where I find it mission impossible find the winner. That can be due to any number of reasons.. Form not exposed. Ability not exposed. Motivation not exposed. If you can consistently win off such races then I tip my hat to you. I have tried it and was unable to do it successfully week in week out. I don't subscribe to the theory that if you throw enough darts at a dartboard,you will eventually hit a bullseye. I believe that is exactly the sort of bet the TAB wants you to take day in day out. I've had some superb collects on such races but as a punter in a numbers game,those numbers don't stack up long term.  

There are of course exceptions. Recently they had the two day Hawera Easter meeting. One horse stood out to me like dogs balls. It was the Herlihy trained Ohoka Darcy. My prediction was it would win for fun on both days of the meeting as it was a class above it's rivals. Form was better than the others. Ability was better than the others and Tony Herlihy is not going to float it all the way to Hawera just to devalue the horse. I tipped it out to everyone I know. Won very easily on the first day paying even money. Repeated the dose on the second day just as easily also paying around the same. Should I have just looked the other way because it was only paying even money? 

My own number crunching says if the race is a listed or group race you need look no further than an All Star. If on the other hand the All Stars have a single runner in an average race,you can often lay them with confidence.

Blackguard's Corner is a typical example. Saw it trial in early March on Trackside. Didn't look an early winner to my eye. The fact the All Stars took it to the Northern Southland meeting for it's first up run spoke plenty. Started a $1.70 fav in a race worth under 10k. Couldn't believe it. Trotted like a pregnant goat on the bends and ran dead last. Looked weeks away from winning form. Stablemate however All Star Angus went straight into the black book.

There are times when an All Star paying $1.70 only means winner winner chicken dinner. Then there are other times where it's the lay of the day and there is inflated odds to be had elsewhere in the field.

Then they take Blackguard's Corner to Addington. Starts a $2.80 fav. Anyone who took that needs their head looking at. Horse sat in the trail doing nothing but as soon as the leader Father Christmas picked up the pace Blackguard's Corner blew to bits....again..The winner of the race paid $20. Quinella paid $100. Trifecta paid $2000. You still have to find them but you have a huge advantage in a numbers game if you think the hot pot is only a runners chance at best undeserving of being a hot fav. 

I've seen punters turn their nose up at NZ Cup day and Jewels day simply because the bulk of the winners are predictable short priced winners. What am I missing? These are the days I love the most. The best horses with totally exposed ability and form. No question marks over motivation to win. It's heaven for a punter. Predictable winners give me a lot of confidence. I genuinely feel sorry for punters who would rather take a crystal ball to Forbury Park. 

[Guest]

46 minutes ago, Alphonse-Gabriel said:

I see Brodie and others often expressing their displeasure at hot favs winning,especially All Stars hot favs.

I'm confused by this. My logic says if a winner is so predictable then surely you should be able to find a way to win money off it?  

If I see an All Star paying $1.50 for example in a big race,I will just put $500 - $1000 on rather than $100. If I couldn't afford that I would go after exotic bets. If I couldn't find a way to make a dollar I would question my own mathematics or if I wasn't being flexible enough with my bet types. If the horse is paying $1.10 I will either put a place bet on the second best horse or take exotics with the second best horse running second. There is of course another option. Don't bet on the race. Just sit back and enjoy it for what it is. Complaining or being unhappy because the winner was so short makes no sense to me. 

Every week we have race meetings where I find it mission impossible find the winner. That can be due to any number of reasons.. Form not exposed. Ability not exposed. Motivation not exposed. If you can consistently win off such races then I tip my hat to you. I have tried it and was unable to do it successfully week in week out. I don't subscribe to the theory that if you throw enough darts at a dartboard,you will eventually hit a bullseye. I believe that is exactly the sort of bet the TAB wants you to take day in day out. I've had some superb collects on such races but as a punter in a numbers game,those numbers don't stack up long term.  

There are of course exceptions. Recently they had the two day Hawera Easter meeting. One horse stood out to me like dogs balls. It was the Herlihy trained Ohoka Darcy. My prediction was it would win for fun on both days of the meeting as it was a class above it's rivals. Form was better than the others. Ability was better than the others and Tony Herlihy is not going to float it all the way to Hawera just to devalue the horse. I tipped it out to everyone I know. Won very easily on the first day paying even money. Repeated the dose on the second day just as easily also paying around the same. Should I have just looked the other way because it was only paying even money? 

My own number crunching says if the race is a listed or group race you need look no further than an All Star. If on the other hand the All Stars have a single runner in an average race,you can often lay them with confidence.

Blackguard's Corner is a typical example. Saw it trial in early March on Trackside. Didn't look an early winner to my eye. The fact the All Stars took it to the Northern Southland meeting for it's first up run spoke plenty. Started a $1.70 fav in a race worth under 10k. Couldn't believe it. Trotted like a pregnant goat on the bends and ran dead last. Looked weeks away from winning form. Stablemate however All Star Angus went straight into the black book.

There are times when an All Star paying $1.70 only means winner winner chicken dinner. Then there are other times where it's the lay of the day and there is inflated odds to be had elsewhere in the field.

Then they take Blackguard's Corner to Addington. Starts a $2.80 fav. Anyone who took that needs their head looking at. Horse sat in the trail doing nothing but as soon as the leader Father Christmas picked up the pace Blackguard's Corner blew to bits....again..The winner of the race paid $20. Quinella paid $100. Trifecta paid $2000. You still have to find them but you have a huge advantage in a numbers game if you think the hot pot is only a runners chance at best undeserving of being a hot fav. 

I've seen punters turn their nose up at NZ Cup day and Jewels day simply because the bulk of the winners are predictable short priced winners. What am I missing? These are the days I love the most. The best horses with totally exposed ability and form. No question marks over motivation to win. It's heaven for a punter. Predictable winners give me a lot of confidence. I genuinely feel sorry for punters who would rather take a crystal ball to Forbury Park. 

Good blog Alphonse.

Firstly, I have backed the Purdon runners when I see value, so I am not against the stable whatsoever.

Yes of course he is an exceptionally gifted trainer but because of the dominance of his tight stable it is to the detriment of the industry, several on here don't see that, but people I know all express the same observation.

I don't beleive in investing a large amount to win on a horse paying next to nothing to win as there is more to be made in my opinion on rougher starters.

The Purdon Fan Club will be in boots and all, and I can't be bothered going round in circles with their fanatical crap about better trainer, more professional than every other trainer in NZ bar none. Yeah right!

[GONSTA 1,148]

Agree 100%. How anyone can get interested in a 16 horse maiden race with no exposed form is beyond me. From a viewing and punting point of view. 

 

This is a little gem of a quote from Brodie which I struggle to comprehend. How could anyone compare a grass track meeting with a bunch of donkeys running to the Auckland cup meeting is amusing to say the least. 

 

" No such thing as a guaranteed winner and when no value or unders wouldn't waste my time.

Personally get more kick out of getting a roughy home in a maiden race than watching the Blue and Silver beat up in a big race.

If there is money to be made at Otaki grass track then I will be on, and more exhilarating than Auckland predictable race.

Auckland fixed odds are always very short so probably won't.

No point in bitching as it will be as predictable as anything. You are right they will be running for third when the AllStars are in.

If punters get a buzz and can make money on stinking hot favourites at Auckland then good on them!"

[Guest]

3 hours ago, GONSTA said:

Agree 100%. How anyone can get interested in a 16 horse maiden race with no exposed form is beyond me. From a viewing and punting point of view. 

 

This is a little gem of a quote from Brodie which I struggle to comprehend. How could anyone compare a grass track meeting with a bunch of donkeys running to the Auckland cup meeting is amusing to say the least. 

 

" No such thing as a guaranteed winner and when no value or unders wouldn't waste my time.

Personally get more kick out of getting a roughy home in a maiden race than watching the Blue and Silver beat up in a big race.

If there is money to be made at Otaki grass track then I will be on, and more exhilarating than Auckland predictable race.

Auckland fixed odds are always very short so probably won't.

No point in bitching as it will be as predictable as anything. You are right they will be running for third when the AllStars are in.

If punters get a buzz and can make money on stinking hot favourites at Auckland then good on them!"

Great to see you are still around Gonsta.

You haven't challenged me for a week or so, to get your kicks.

Keep doing what you think you are good at!

[GONSTA 1,148]

5 minutes ago, Brodie said:

Great to see you are still around Gonsta.

You haven't challenged me for a week or so, to get your kicks.

Keep doing what you think you are good at!

What I think I'm good at? I'm not the one that comes on here claiming i can't get a decent bet on and how good a punter I am blah blah blah. You must have balls the size of a pea if you can't accept my challenge. You honestly have nothing to lose yet deep down you must be rather skeptical about how good a form analyst you really are. It's easy to talk the talk but you obviously can't walk the walk!  I would even be happy to bet on thoroughbreds vs your harness selections and put up the same $ offer. How about it, buddy?

[Alphonse-Gabriel 101]

I get a buzz out of winning money but don't really care how as long as I'm winning. I remember when Courage Under Fire was doing all his winning. I never once backed him to win but won a small fortune off him in trifecta's,pick six's and trebles etc. People will always look for a horse to beat the favourite. Usually that is prudent as overall favourites don't have a great record. Every now and again a horse comes along that would effectively have to fall over to lose. I back it accordingly. Others are still looking for "value". I'm happy they are as it only increases the size of my collect. 

I don't try and outsmart the bookies or other punters. I just look for horses in good form that look like they are better than their opposition and can work yet still win. That takes the needing luck out of the equation. If it's a high value race my confidence increases as there are no questions over motivation. I will happily back one horse for the day. I use the rest of the meeting to gauge track bias etc and the form of stables. If I have one horse in mind and it's three stablemates have all gone average earlier in the program I will hold off on my bet. If however the stable of the biggest opposition are running hot,I must factor that in.  

[Guest]

32 minutes ago, GONSTA said:

What I think I'm good at? I'm not the one that comes on here claiming i can't get a decent bet on and how good a punter I am blah blah blah. You must have balls the size of a pea if you can't accept my challenge. You honestly have nothing to lose yet deep down you must be rather skeptical about how good a form analyst you really are. It's easy to talk the talk but you obviously can't walk the walk!  I would even be happy to bet on thoroughbreds vs your harness selections and put up the same $ offer. How about it, buddy?

Gonsta. I have told you I have a lot to lose, but not going to go into it anymore.

A respected contributor on here has already confirmed my validity.

I have no need or desire to prove anything to a Greyhound punter.

[GONSTA 1,148]

3 minutes ago, Brodie said:

Gonsta. I have told you I have a lot to lose, but not going to go into it anymore.

A respected contributor on here has already confirmed my validity.

I have no need or desire to prove anything to a Greyhound punter.

I don't understand what you have to lose? You don't bet on the tote and I'm only expecting you to post your bets 10 minutes before the race so your fixed odds prices won't be affected. I think you are missing a couple of things between your legs quite honestly. I'm sure there are more people than myself that would love to see how good you are at picking winners! Nothing better than a decent challenge IMO, especially if your as good as you claim then you shouldn't have a problem beating a greyhound punter. After all greyhound racing is a complete lottery according to you? 

[GONSTA 1,148]

Thanks for the reply on my profile Brodie. One of the funniest things I have read on here. That's gold! By the way Brodie, I have never heard of betfair banning anyone, and you have the oppourtunity to bet into markets less than 110%, and can lay short priced favourites at your peril! Bet smarter Brodie.

"Gonsta. I have told you previously that if I post horses on this Race Cafe, I would have already backed them with the TAB and they will then know who I am!

Can you not appreciate that.

They have come down on me dramatically betting wise already and there have been word that they want to reduce my betting down further.

I am a liability to them that they don't want.

They advise me that if I was in OZ I would not get a bet on."

[Guest]

1 hour ago, GONSTA said:

Thanks for the reply on my profile Brodie. One of the funniest things I have read on here. That's gold! By the way Brodie, I have never heard of betfair banning anyone, and you have the oppourtunity to bet into markets less than 110%, and can lay short priced favourites at your peril! Bet smarter Brodie.

"Gonsta. I have told you previously that if I post horses on this Race Cafe, I would have already backed them with the TAB and they will then know who I am!

Can you not appreciate that.

They have come down on me dramatically betting wise already and there have been word that they want to reduce my betting down further.

I am a liability to them that they don't want.

They advise me that if I was in OZ I would not get a bet on."

Gonsta.

Thanks for the confidentiality!

Not going to waste my time with you again!

[Alphonse-Gabriel 101]

1 hour ago, kakama said:

I bet a few of us would love to have our betting reduced!!

By the way, Blackguards Corner was mentioned earlier on. True, it did gallop on the home turn, but have a look how it finished when it got going again. Will be red hot again next start, and should win

I will happily lay this horse until further notice. No doubt it has gears and the fact it's in the All Star stable says it's no mug but not for me. Look at the way it went round the bends at Northern Southland until it finally blew to bits on the final turn when the acid went on.

http://harness.hrnz.co.nz/gas/wa/r/infohorsewahr/wsd01x?Arg=hrnzg-Ptype&Arg=RaceVideo&Arg=hrnzg-RacehdrID&Arg=223996

 

Then at Addington going around the bend it lost it again. 

http://harness.hrnz.co.nz/gas/wa/r/infohorsewahr/wsd01x?Arg=hrnzg-Ptype&Arg=RaceVideo&Arg=hrnzg-RacehdrID&Arg=224036

 

Once balanced up in a straight line in the home straight it trotted nicely but it's the bends I'm worried about especially at the tail end of a race when the speed and heat is on.

I do have every faith in the All Stars as Petite One was going rough at the start of it's last prep but still won impressively at her next start on cup day. Blackguard's Corner ran a beaut second that day. Once the horse trots all the way again I will be back on board especially as a place getter but wouldn't be surprised to see the horse racing across the ditch before the year is out.  

[harewood 477]

7 hours ago, Alphonse-Gabriel said:

.. Blackguard's Corner ran a beaut second that day. Once the horse trots all the way again I will be back on board especially as a place getter but wouldn't be surprised to see the horse racing across the ditch before the year is out.  

Yes I was thinking the same thing. Melton and definitely Menangle with its sweeping final bend would suit this horse. Many of the All Stars second and third stringers make their way across the ditch. They only keep ones they are confident of making the grade with so if they preserver with B Corner they must think something of it. I can think of about a dozen ex Purdon runners that are going around in Aus with good success. Most NZ trainers would have been happy to have them in their barn but if they are not top notch then not good enough for the All Stars. Maybe one of the reasons they have so much success they only keep the best of the best.

[Alphonse-Gabriel 101]

7 hours ago, harewood said:

Yes I was thinking the same thing. Melton and definitely Menangle with its sweeping final bend would suit this horse. Many of the All Stars second and third stringers make their way across the ditch. They only keep ones they are confident of making the grade with so if they preserver with B Corner they must think something of it. I can think of about a dozen ex Purdon runners that are going around in Aus with good success. Most NZ trainers would have been happy to have them in their barn but if they are not top notch then not good enough for the All Stars. Maybe one of the reasons they have so much success they only keep the best of the best.

Blackguard's Corner would do superbly in Australia. Could easily see it going to the Brent Lilley / Kerryn Manning or Fitzpatrick stable and winning plenty. As you say harewood, the big bends at Menangle and Melton would be very helpful as would the quality of opposition over there. It going to Australia serves two further purposes for the All Stars. Firstly it clears another spot in their stable and those spots are like gold. Racing over there also means it won't become a hindrance to their horses like All Star Angus here. 

Must admit I do wonder if there are any agreements in place gentleman or otherwise when ex All Star horses are sold or moved on to other stables?  Did they ever anticipate Arden Rooney returning to NZ and taking our most coveted prize from their grasp?

[Guest]

Just great to see Purdon horses winning and paying $1.20 to win.

Fabulous for racing is it not.

Encouraging punting!!!!

Bit of discontent out there from some trainers, and can't blame them!

I am waiting for the backlash from the support crew.

[Spikecity 749]

2 hours ago, Brodie said:

Just great to see Purdon horses winning and paying $1.20 to win.

Fabulous for racing is it not.

Encouraging punting!!!!

Bit of discontent out there from some trainers, and can't blame them!

I am waiting for the backlash from the support crew.

And your point?

If Lazarus wasn't in Derby then the winner (Classie Brigade) would still have paid only $1.20.

See Mark must have shipped the good stuff up to Barry too hehe

The thing that annoys me is that R May clearly pushed out Shandale and got away with it (not even a fine) - after consulting with R May and M McK (good mates from way back) - why they even needed to ask them is beyond me. If they need to consult the drivers to find out what is happening in a race they should be looking for a new job.

[eljay 1,719]

Perhaps the main reason for "hot pots" is that the TAB is taking too much from the pools!

[Guest]

47 minutes ago, eljay said:

Perhaps the main reason for "hot pots" is that the TAB is taking too much from the pools!

Not sure about too much from pools.

Can not really understand why people back horses when they know they are only going to get their money back if it runs a place.

So often now the tote divs defy logic, winner pays just over a dollar and the 3 place divs are next to nothing.

I suppose there are a hell of a lot of people that bet just for the sheer hell of it, and don't care if they lose money, which they will do backing the shorties.

You might as well back greyhounds as they are a lottery eh Gonsta!

[aquaman 1,352]

1 hour ago, eljay said:

Perhaps the main reason for "hot pots" is that the TAB is taking too much from the pools!

Very observant eljay. Thats why we don't have co mingling anymore on exotics. Take a bow.

[Guest]

35 minutes ago, kakama said:

Your a strange one Brodie!!

Why do you have such a problem with the purdon horses? Agree, most start fav, but some pay good money.

If they have a first starter, usually the money is on, more than likely it wins. I just can not see what the problem is with that. If you think something can beat them, ya gonna get inflated odds.

Come cup time, the purdon team will have a massive turnout.

Seems Lazarus and have faith in me, as well as others, will start in nz cup. Just the thought of that gets me excited! We need this stable to keep turning out these great horses. Nz cup this year, could be one of the best in recent years.

Kakama. You are the strange one if you get excited with  short priced favourites winning.

No money to be made on them.

Didnt mention Purdon horses, just any shorties.

Punters I talk to that are serious about making good money on the punt don't punt very often on the Premier race days.

Cup day for making money is a no go.

You carry on doing what you like.

[Counter Punch 256]

I just hate watching horses like Monbet and Lazarus and rising stars like Say My Name win races. 

It's just bloody horrible and so bad for the industry. 

 

[what a post 811]

45 minutes ago, Counter Punch said:

I just hate watching horses like Monbet and Lazarus and rising stars like Say My Name win races. 

It's just bloody horrible and so bad for the industry. 

 

His point is the dividends are so small, no one bets on the races   Personally I think it is a fallacy that the average punter has anymore interest in the aforementioned horses than any other race.  The proof is in the turnovers on these races.  Sure, if you want to attract people along to solely watch good horses then the aforementioned would help.  How did last nights crowd compare to say motukarara last week?.    

[Guest]

1 hour ago, what a post said:

His point is the dividends are so small, no one bets on the races   Personally I think it is a fallacy that the average punter has anymore interest in the aforementioned horses than any other race.  The proof is in the turnovers on these races.  Sure, if you want to attract people along to solely watch good horses then the aforementioned would help.  How did last nights crowd compare to say motukarara last week?.    

Totally agree What a Post!

Most of the people that go out to Addington on Cup Day don't give a rats who wins.

Some of the bigger punters may back the shorties but personally don't think you will make money long term by doing this or there would be so many more people restricted by the TAB.

People I know don't have many punts on Premier days and nights as too many form horses and TAB give very little value mostly.

Lower class racing provides far more opportunities to make money.

Apologise, but personally don't care about Jewels day and Premier days as mostly difficult to make.

A maiden race to me can be every bit as exciting than a premier race at Addington where the shorty leads and just wins!

[Guest]

2 hours ago, Counter Punch said:

I just hate watching horses like Monbet and Lazarus and rising stars like Say My Name win races. 

It's just bloody horrible and so bad for the industry. 

 

Counter Punch.

Of course we need good horses racing just as we need maidens and lower class horses that need to come thru the grades.

Do I enjoy horses going unbeaten and cleaning up all the big races.

No I don't, I would prefer a far more evenly spread result rather than one stable plundering all the big stake races, but many here don't care.

All entitled to,our opinion and of course we think we are correct.

Is it bad for the industry in the long run?

Yes it is!

[what a post 811]

Anyone who follows harness racing  closely  fully appreciates the presence of a top horse.  No one on here has ever said otherwise.  When the general public  get to relate to such horses is when a top horses career has some longevity .  The last truly great performance  I personally witnessed, in my opinion, was I can doosit  winning at motukarara 3 years ago. We even went round to have a look at the horse after race.  May not have been that horses biggest win, but in my opinion it was tremendous because of the will to win he showed that day when he should have been beaten.   Thats what racing is about.

[Popcorn Player 51]

9 hours ago, what a post said:

Anyone who follows harness racing  closely  fully appreciates the presence of a top horse.  No one on here has ever said otherwise.  When the general public  get to relate to such horses is when a top horses career has some longevity .  The last truly great performance  I personally witnessed, in my opinion, was I can doosit  winning at motukarara 3 years ago. We even went round to have a look at the horse after race.  May not have been that horses biggest win, but in my opinion it was tremendous because of the will to win he showed that day when he should have been beaten.   Thats what racing is about.

I thought it was about making money  just jokes